Today, SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated downward compared to the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened high today at 206,500 yuan/mt, quickly surging to the intraday high of 209,900 yuan/mt (up approximately 2.4%) after the opening, but then rapidly pulled back and fell below the average price line; it continued to fluctuate downward during the session, accelerating its decline to the intraday low of 195,000 yuan/mt around midday (down approximately 4.8%); it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, moving sideways around 200,000 yuan/mt, and ultimately closed down 1.87% at 202,000 yuan/mt, with open interest decreasing by 17,941 lots. Spot market, as prices fluctuated downward, downstream just-in-time procurement activities increased, upstream sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling recovered, willingness to sell on spot orders weakened, and the volume of registered warrants delivered to futures for hedging continued to increase, with warrant volume rising to 49,000 lots as of today. Overall, market inquiries and actual transaction activity were active. This week, lithium carbonate production increased slightly, mainly due to continued steady production ramp-up from the salt lake and recycling segments. Transaction and inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants continued to slow down spot order shipments, while hedging registered warrant volumes increased. As lithium prices continued to fluctuate at highs, downstream and traders' purchase willingness weakened, leading to a slight inventory buildup at the upstream level this week. Downstream material plants, due to continuously rising prices, maintained weak spot order purchase willingness, with fewer opportunities to buy the dip this week, and enterprises mostly continued to consume earlier inventory and long-term contract and customer-supplied materials delivered at the beginning of the month. Trader side, as downstream found it difficult to purchase at levels above 200,000 yuan/mt, inventory continued to accumulate.

SMM May 14 Update: Guangdong region: Premiums in this region fluctuated at highs this week. Although copper prices surged significantly, suppliers maintained a bullish stance on premiums and were unwilling to lower prices for shipments, keeping premiums firm. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 270 yuan/mt, on par with last Thursday; standard-quality copper premiums were quoted at 200 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from last Thursday; SX-EW copper was quoted at 130 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread of standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong showed Guangdong higher by 280 yuan/mt. Given the large price spread, cargoes from Jiangxi and Hunan moved southward. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 16,800 mt, down 1,500 mt from last Thursday, with warrants totaling 5,100 mt, up 675 mt from last Thursday. Specifically: Arrivals at warehouses this week were 13,000 mt/week, up 1,100 mt/week WoW, below the annual average (14,000 mt/week); increased arrivals from northern sources were the main reason. Warehouse withdrawals were 14,800 mt/week, up 3,600 mt WoW, slightly above the annual average (14,200 mt/week). As downstream restocking before the holiday was limited, end-user enterprises began restocking after the holiday, driving up warehouse withdrawals. Looking ahead to next week, as copper prices hover at historical highs, end-user cargo pick-up enthusiasm declined notably this week, and finished product inventories at many copper processing enterprises increased. Production cuts are expected next week. Therefore, inventory is expected to edge up next week, and premiums are expected to hover at highs without further climbing. (The above information is derived from market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.)

Platinum prices moved sideways intraday. In the morning session, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2606 closed at 531.75 yuan/gram, up 0.28%. The SGE Pt9995–GFEX PT2606 spread remained inverted, but SGE Pt9995 saw no transactions in the morning session. Spot side, mainstream quotations for spot platinum premiums were largely unchanged from the previous trading day. Morning mainstream quotations from traders were at a discount of 3–5 yuan/gram to GFEX PT2606, with some platinum warrants held at firm prices for sale. Transaction side, according to SMM, downstream buyers indicated that platinum prices remained near recent highs, purchasing sentiment was weak, and a wait-and-see approach prevailed. Morning mainstream quotations at a GFEX discount of 3–5 yuan/gram saw almost no transactions. Some enterprises chose to slightly widen discounts but still found it difficult to close deals. Platinum warrants also saw scarce transactions due to high asking prices, and the spot market overall remained in the doldrums.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, tomorrow is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2605 front-month contract. In accordance with the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM consistently quotes based on the front-month contract. From the current market structure, the intraday SHFE copper price spread between futures contracts quickly dipped, ranging between Contango 70 yuan/mt and Backwardation 60 yuan/mt. End-user procurement orders saw a slight increase in volume, but not significantly. According to SMM, some downstream enterprises placed orders mostly around 104,000 yuan/mt, and downstream procurement sentiment remained relatively subdued, with high copper prices continuing to suppress current consumption demand. However, due to the delivery logic providing a floor, spot discounts received certain support, and the downside room for premiums was limited. Going forward, attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. After delivery is completed, the market is expected to enter a new round of pricing dynamics centered around the 2606 contract.

SMM May 14: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, briefly touching a low of $1,995.5/mt during the Asian session. LME lead maintained strong upward momentum into the European session, reaching a high of $2,016/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $2,004/mt, up 0.33%, refreshing a nearly 4-month high. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,655 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, with a low of 16,625 yuan/mt and a high of 16,675 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 16,640 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Lead ingot inventory outside China continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread remained in a slight contango. Combined with the persistently tight spot cargo availability in the Southeast Asian spot market, LME lead is expected to hold up well. In addition, geopolitical uncertainties outside China remain significant, and their impact on the market warrants continued attention. In China, spot lead prices received a slight boost from LME lead's performance, but upward momentum remained limited due to weak end-use consumption. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, briefly touching a low of $1,995.5/mt during the Asian session. LME lead continued to rise firmly after entering the European session, reaching a high of $2,016/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $2,004/mt, up 0.33%, refreshing a nearly 4-month high. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,655 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, with a low of 16,625 yuan/mt and a high of 16,675 yuan/mt during the session, ultimately settling at 16,640 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. On the macro front: US Fed's Collins: If inflation does not ease, rate hikes may be needed. US April PPI surged 1.4% MoM and 6% YoY, both the largest increases since 2022. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth expectations from 1.38 million bpd to 1.17 million bpd. US President Trump arrived in Beijing to begin his visit to China. He Lifeng held economic and trade consultations with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in South Korea. China's State Administration for Market Regulation: launched a special campaign to remove obstacles hindering the unified market and fair competition. : SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers offered limited quotations, with some waiting for delivery and others seeing rising wait-and-see sentiment. Additionally, cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters also saw relatively fewer quotations. Secondary lead side, regional supply disparities persisted, with smelters showing strong reluctance to sell at low prices. Some smelters held prices firm for shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis. Downstream enterprises made just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm still present and some purchasing on dips as needed, but market trading activity weakened compared to yesterday. Inventory: On May 13, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 265,300 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Ex-China lead ingot inventory continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight contango. Combined with the persistently tight spot market supply in Southeast Asia, LME lead is expected to hold up well. In addition, uncertainty surrounding overseas geopolitical factors remains significant, and their impact on the market warrants continued attention. Although domestic spot lead prices received a slight boost from LME lead's movement, upward momentum remained insufficient due to weak end-use consumption. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.