As of July 30, China’s aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas stood at 953,000 mt. Cumulative destocking from the YTD high of 1.465 million mt in early May has reached 512,000 mt (-35%), with an additional accelerated destocking of 53,000 mt this week, breaking below the 1 million mt threshold as expected. However, the directional divergence between warehouse withdrawals and inventory has raised concerns...

As of July 30, China's major consumption regions reported aluminum ingot inventory of 953,000 mt, having cumulatively destocked 512,000 mt (-35%) from the year's high of 1.465 million mt in early May. Within the week, destocking accelerated further by 53,000 mt, as expected falling below the 1 million mt mark. However, the directional divergence between warehouse withdrawals and inventory drew attention: weekly warehouse withdrawals pulled back to 127,700 mt, losing the advantage of being at a high for the same period in the past four years. The core driving force of this destocking round has shifted from "demand and warehouse withdrawal boost" in June to "supply contraction + slowdown in shipment pace": the proportion of liquid aluminum rose to 78.3% in July, with casting ingot volume down 15.1% YoY; a sharp drop in arrivals in South China pushed Foshan's premium wider by 50 yuan/mt in a single week to 115 yuan/mt; SMM believes...

According to SMM statistics, on July 30, aluminum billet inventory in major consuming regions in China stood at 119,500 mt, down 2,500 mt from last Monday and down 1,500 mt from last Thursday. The inventory ended its two-week buildup trend and shifted to slight destocking. On a YoY comparison basis, inventory was 27,500 mt lower than the same period in 2025, 9,700 mt lower than in 2024, but 40,600 mt higher than in 2023.

This week (July 27 – July 30), the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premiums B/L transactions was $104–$110/mt, QP August, with an average price of $107/mt; the weekly average price range for warrant transactions was $108–$117/mt, QP August, with an average price of $112/mt; EQ copper CIF B/L was $70–$80/mt, QP August, with an average price of $75/mt. As of July 30, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2608 contract after excluding exchange rates was 1.1345, with an import loss of approximately 528 yuan/mt, which was a narrowing of roughly 107 yuan/mt from the previous week. As of Thursday, the LME copper backwardation structure for the August date widened WoW, with the spread between the August date and the September date at -$12.94/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for ER copper B/L are around $115–$120/mt; mainstream offers for registered copper warrants are around $120–$125/mt; mainstream offers for CIF B/L EQ copper are around $75–$85/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums maintained a relatively stable trend. As expectations of tight available spot supply began to weaken, premiums lacked further upward momentum. However, influenced by the persistently unfavorable SHFE/LME price ratio, mediocre downstream consumption demand, and a widened backwardation structure in near-term LME contracts, seller offers increased, yet downstream buyers remained cautious at high prices and stayed on the sidelines. Both parties held divergent positions, leading to a further stalemate throughout the week, resulting in sluggish actual transactions. According to SMM, as of Thursday this week (July 30), China's bonded zone copper inventories decreased by approximately 100 mt MoM from the previous period (July 23) to 37,100 mt. Among these, Shanghai bonded inventories increased by 100 mt MoM to 33,400 mt, and Guangdong bonded inventories decreased by 200 mt MoM to 3,700 mt. Bonded zone inventory showed minimal destocking changes, with both warehouse inflows and warehouse withdrawals remaining low during the week. Looking ahead, overall market supply will remain constrained due to the sustained siphoning effect from North America. However, the market situation is expected to tighten further entering August. Cargoes previously canceled from LME Asian warehouses and shipped to China will arrive at ports in batches gradually during August. If consumption fails to show a significant improvement, the import SHFE/LME price ratio will struggle to rebound, and short-term supply growth could impact spot premiums.

July 30, 2026 Guangdong region: This week, premiums in the region bottomed out. At the beginning of the week, premiums fell significantly due to a sharp increase in inventory. As downstream consumption gradually improved and inventory declined, spot premiums rebounded. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was reported at 150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from last Thursday; and SX-EW copper at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread of standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong showed Shanghai at a 140 yuan/mt higher, a relatively small spread, with no cross-region shipments this week. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 17,000 mt, up 1,800 mt from last Thursday, with warrant holdings totaling 3,900 mt, down 200 mt from last Thursday. Specifically: Warehouse arrivals this week were 10,900 mt/week, down 4,100 mt/week from last week and significantly below the annual average of 14,000 mt/week. Imports of copper decreased notably this week, and arrivals of domestic copper also declined WoW. Warehouse withdrawals were 9,800 mt/week, down sharply by 12,600 mt from last week and far below the annual average of 14,200 mt/week. Sluggish end-use consumption this week led to a significant drop in withdrawals. Looking ahead to next week, arrivals are expected to increase slightly compared to this week, consumption is expected to edge up only slightly, total inventory is expected to edge up, and spot premiums are expected to remain stable. (The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.)

[SMM Weekly Review: Polysilicon Awaits Cost Meeting Plan, Module Prices Stabilize on Profit-Protection Willingness] This week, China's module prices showed signs of stabilizing. Due to the poor financial performance of some enterprises in mid-year, with companies in a continuous state of losses, the sentiment of competing on price to sell began to wane, shifting from previously rushing shipments to now prioritizing profit protection. Module prices began to show stability. However, affected by the pace of warehouse withdrawals of low-efficiency modules, low-price orders still existed in the market, and distributed prices were relatively divergent. On the centralized side, recent project tenders were scarce, and demand recovery was slower than expected.