According to the latest customs data, in January 2026, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 2,050.01 mt in physical content, down 8.37% MoM and up 24.53% YoY. In February, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 1,344.87 mt in physical content, down 34.4% MoM and down 36.67% YoY, showing an overall sharp decline. Cumulative imports in January-February 2026 were 3,394.87, down 9.94% YoY cumulatively. (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190).

The operating rate of major copper cathode rod enterprises in China stood at 81.51% last week (March 13–March 19), marking the fourth consecutive week of MoM improvement since the Chinese New Year, with industry sentiment continuing to recover. The strong rebound in the operating rate in this round was mainly driven by two factors: first, the relatively weak operating rates of secondary copper rod enterprises, coupled with the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap remaining at a relatively low level, significantly weakened the substitution effect between copper cathode and copper scrap, leaving more market room for copper cathode rod; second, improving orders for downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire boosted a faster drawdown in enterprises' finished product inventories. As copper prices broke above low-level support, downstream procurement sentiment continued to heat up, and new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises showed a pattern of concentrated volume release. Most enterprises reported that their production pace could no longer keep up with shipment progress, and some had already begun to proactively control the pace of taking orders to ensure contract fulfillment. From the downstream industry perspective, wire and cable as well as enamelled wire enterprises also benefited from the pullback in copper prices, with operating rates steadily rebounding, further boosting demand for copper rod. Inventory side, although the pullback in copper prices boosted enterprises' willingness to restock, constrained by limited room for capacity release, enterprises did not excessively stockpile on dips and mostly maintained normal production raw material reserves. Meanwhile, due to continued downstream pick-up of goods, enterprises' capacity was unable to fully match order demand, accelerating the drawdown of finished product inventories. Enterprises Raise Processing Fees and Increase Margin Requirements to Control Risks After copper prices pulled back sharply, downstream purchase willingness increased significantly, and order concentration rose markedly. To reasonably control the pace of taking orders, some enterprises urgently raised processing fees. At the same time, affected by the increased uncertainty in the pace of cargo pick-up caused by concentrated downstream order placement, as well as the continued decline in copper prices, enterprises became more concerned about the default risk of earlier high-priced orders, and some enterprises simultaneously increased margin ratios to strengthen risk control. Looking ahead, with copper prices rising at present, downstream procurement sentiment has clearly weakened. To ensure stable deliveries, copper cathode rod enterprises are expected to maintain relatively high operating loads. Although rigid demand is gradually being fully released, against the backdrop of low finished product inventories, enterprises will still maintain high operating rates to replenish inventory. Accordingly, SMM expects the operating rate of China's copper cathode rod enterprises to fluctuate at highs in March.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. After copper prices jumped, downstream procurement sentiment pulled back, indicating limited acceptance of current price levels. From the market structure perspective, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some brands continuing to offload cargo, putting pressure on discounts. Downstream buyers mostly maintained a wait-and-see stance, with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand and buying on dips. It is worth noting that the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper narrowed somewhat from the previous period, indicating that the market trading structure has become more rational, with actual consumption demand becoming the dominant force at the current stage. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, spot prices against the 2604 contract are expected to maintain the current discount level tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,016.5/mt. After dipping to $11,955.5/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,160/mt, and then continued to hover at highs, finally closing at $12,092.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, open interest stood at 293,000 lots, up 406 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 93,600 yuan/mt and touched a low of 93,480 yuan/mt at the open. Its center then moved higher to a high of 94,990 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, finally closing at 94,670 yuan/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 533 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting reduced short positions throughout the day.

Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt today, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the average transaction price rose 1,635 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 95,595 yuan/mt.

According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.