[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Extended Losses, While Trading Sentiment Recovered Slightly] Market quotes generally moved lower last Friday, with the SMM ADC12 price down 300 yuan/mt to 25,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the price pullback and weekend restocking demand, market trading sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period, and downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip strengthened, improving transactions for some enterprises. However, overall demand still mainly reflected rigid demand, end-users remained sensitive to price fluctuations, and the pace of restocking stayed cautious. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The pattern of demand being under pressure is unlikely to change in the short term; downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and coupled with the weak trend in primary aluminum weighing on market sentiment, prices struggled to rise. But with cost support, downside room is also limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the trend in primary aluminum and the pace of downstream consumption release.

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

[SMM Aluminum Bulletin] According to customs data, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 90,300 mt in January 2026, down 9.4% YoY and down 3.1% MoM. In February 2026, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 65,800 mt, down 28.2% YoY and down 27.1% MoM. Cumulative imports for January-February 2026 totaled 156,100 mt, down 18.5% YoY. Exports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 24,200 mt in January 2026, up 33.6% YoY and down 4.9% MoM. In February 2026, exports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 13,300 mt, down 24.0% YoY and down 45.1% MoM. Cumulative exports for January-February 2026 totaled 37,500 mt, up 5.3% YoY.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,714.5/mt and climbed to $12,715/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then saw the center move straight downward, before fluctuating rangebound and eventually closing at $12,340/mt, down 3.44%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 288,300 lots, down 4,872 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a high of 98,000 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of 95,920 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally closed at 96,340 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 103,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, up 9,911 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to increased short positions.

SMM June 11 News: Today, spot primary aluminum prices surged significantly by 240 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. SMM A00 aluminum ingot prices closed at 20,400 yuan/mt, with aluminum scrap market prices generally following suit. As the off-season in June begins, downstream scrap utilisation enterprises are experiencing sluggish order releases, with procurement primarily driven by immediate needs. Today, the centralized quoted prices for baled UBC scrap range from 15,050 to 15,550 yuan/mt (tax not included), while shredded aluminum tense scrap is quoted at 15,700 to 17,200 yuan/mt (tax not included). Regionally, areas such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong closely track aluminum prices, with price adjustments ranging from 200 to 250 yuan/mt. In contrast, regions like Jiangxi, Foshan, and Guizhou lag behind aluminum price adjustments, with price changes ranging from 100 to 150 yuan/mt. By product, prices for baled UBC and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint have increased slightly by 50 to 100 yuan/mt, while bare bright aluminum wire and shredded aluminum tense scrap prices have risen by 200 yuan/mt. In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price spread between A00 aluminum and mechanical casting aluminum scrap in Shanghai has narrowed by 30 yuan/mt compared to yesterday, closing at 1,847 yuan/mt. In Foshan, the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum extrusion scrap has widened by 100 yuan/mt compared to yesterday, reaching 1,514 yuan/mt. It is expected that the aluminum scrap market will continue to fluctuate at highs. The tight supply of aluminum tense scrap is unlikely to change, providing solid price support. Wrought aluminum alloy scrap will continue to fluctuate rangebound with primary aluminum, but the risk of a high-level correction in primary aluminum prices, coupled with weak demand during the off-season, may suppress upside room. The operating rate of downstream secondary aluminum alloy enterprises is likely to remain low, with a persistent struggle between costs and orders. Regarding reverse invoicing, regions such as Jiangxi, Anhui, and Hubei are actively promoting its implementation among producers and suppliers. According to feedback from some scrap utilisation enterprises, the tax costs arising from reverse invoicing will be shared by suppliers and producers, ultimately being passed on to raw material prices. On another front, the cast aluminum alloy futures were listed today, June 10. Futures arbitrage activities may temporarily boost market activity in the secondary aluminum alloy sector. As aluminum scrap is a core raw material for production, its price sensitivity may be further heightened. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis reached 547,000 mt in May 2025, up 5.60% MoM and down 3.19% YoY. From January to May, cumulative exports totaled 2.431 million mt, a decrease of 5.1% YoY.