In H1, the industry showed distinct characteristics: upstream raw material imports experienced a mix of hot and cold trends, while mid-and downstream aluminum processing product exports saw explosive growth. Diverging domestic and overseas demand, shifting overseas manufacturing orders, and changes in the overseas raw material supply landscape are jointly reshaping the trade pattern of China's aluminum industry chain.

[SMM Analysis]Divergent Trends in H1 Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Imports and Exports: Price Spreads Boost Exports While Inverted Profits Drag Down Imports

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap Imports Post Third Straight Monthly Decline in June 2026, Continually Reshaping Aluminum Alloy Trade Patterns] Currently, the secondary aluminum alloy market remains in the off-season, with downstream order releases limited. End-user procurement stays need-based, overall trading activity is relatively subdued, and the demand side provides insufficient support for price increases. Meanwhile, aluminum prices remain...

Customs data show that in June 2026, China's import and export trends for unwrought aluminum alloy (HS 76012000) diverged significantly. The import side remained under pressure, with June imports at 55,100 mt, down 28.9% YoY and 14.7% MoM; H1 cumulative imports totaled 433,500 mt, a YoY decline of 20.0%. The export side performed remarkably well, with June exports at 67,200 mt, surging 160.6% YoY and up 11.7% MoM, setting a new record for China's monthly exports of unwrought aluminum alloy. Exports in January-June totaled 238,500 mt, a YoY rise of 98.3%. Driven by the continuous contraction in imports and rapid growth in exports, trade in unwrought aluminum alloy shifted back to a net export position in June 2026.

The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (14th) to present China's foreign trade performance since the start of this year. It was introduced that in H1, China's foreign trade achieved double-digit growth and maintained a good momentum. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, imports and exports of related products showed strong momentum. In H1, imports and exports of computing hardware such as electronic components and computer parts totaled 5.13 trillion yuan, up 56.6%. Smart products like AI glasses, AI translators, and mechanical exoskeletons have been quickly iterating, with various innovative products constantly emerging. According to customs statistics, in H1 of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 25.47 trillion yuan, up 16.9% YoY. Specifically, exports were 14.73 trillion yuan, up 13.4% YoY, maintaining growth for 11 consecutive quarters; imports were 10.74 trillion yuan, up 22.1% YoY, outpacing exports by 8.7 percentage points. In June, imports and exports totaled 4.78 trillion yuan, up 24.2% YoY, maintaining growth for 17 consecutive months. Export side, the product structure further improved. In H1, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 9.36 trillion yuan, up 20.1%, accounting for 63.5% of total exports, up 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Exports of high-tech products reached 3.26 trillion yuan, up 39%. Import side, in H1, China's import growth outpaced exports by 8.7 percentage points, promoting balanced development of imports and exports. Within this, imports rose for energy and other bulk commodities (3.4%), mechanical and electrical products (28%), and agricultural products (8.6%). Trading partner side, China's diversified markets continued to consolidate. In H1, China's imports and exports to Belt and Road partner countries totaled 12.97 trillion yuan, up 14.8%, accounting for 50.9% of total foreign trade. Imports and exports to neighboring countries reached 9.44 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. Trade with Latin America, Africa, and the EU expanded by 16.2%, 19.6%, and 10.2%, respectively. Business entity side, all types of business entities in China maintained good growth momentum. Imports and exports by private enterprises reached 14.53 trillion yuan, up 17%, accounting for 57% of total foreign trade. Imports and exports by foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises grew by 17.1% and 16.8%, respectively. Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, introduced at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office: Overall, China's foreign trade achieved remarkable results in H1. Meanwhile, the current external environment remains complex and volatile. The World Bank believes that the global economy is facing pressures from rising energy prices, intensifying inflationary pressure, and expectations of monetary policy tightening, leading to a weakening growth outlook. IMF forecast data shows that world economic growth is expected to slow from 3.5% last year to 3% this year, and the growth rate of goods and services trade volume is also expected to slow from 5% last year to 3.5% this year. In H2, China’s foreign trade will face some pressure, but with strong innovation momentum, robust market vitality, and a high level of openness, the fundamentals of foreign trade will remain solid, and the positive momentum in foreign trade development is expected to continue. Based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM compiled the import and export situation of selected products in the metals industry, as follows: Exports: Rare earth exports in June 2026 5,104.8 mt, down 34.1% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 30,482.8 mt, down 6.4% YoY vs January to June 2025. Steel exports in June 2026 10.32 million mt, up 6.6% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 5,487.4 mt, YoY down 5.6 % vs January to June 2025. Unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis exports in June 2026 711,000 mt, up 45.4% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 3.396 million mt, up 16.3% YoY vs January to June 2025. Imports: Iron ore and concentrates imports in June 2026 112.689 million mt, up 6.4% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 628.868 million mt, up 6.3% YoY vs January to June 2025. Copper ore and concentrates imports in June 2026 2.335 10kt, down 0.6% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 14.609 10kt, down 0.9% YoY vs January to June 2025 . Coal and lignite imports in June 2026 42.779 10kt, up 29.5% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 225.4 million mt, up 1.7% YoY vs January to June 2025 . In June 2026, rare earth imports reached 6,261.5 mt, down 25.3% YoY from June 2025 . In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 53,886.6 mt, down 6.1% YoY from January-June 2025. In June 2026, steel imports reached 441,000 mt, down 6.2% YoY from June 2025. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY from January-June 2025. In June 2026, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis reached 478,000 mt, up 3% YoY from June 2025 . In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 2.491 million mt, down 5.3 % YoY from January-June 2025.

[Geopolitical Conflicts and Cooling Inflation Keep Aluminum Prices Biased Stronger, Upside Room Limited] Overall, short-term aluminum prices will consolidate on a strong note and encounter resistance.