[Turkey] In the import market, a Russian mill's offer for August-delivery billet held stable at 480 USD/tonne FOB, while Turkish buyers' target prices were at or below 470 USD/tonne FOB, with freight rates from Russia to Turkish ports dropping to around 25 USD/tonne. Meanwhile, driven by lower freight costs, Chinese 4SP billet offers to Turkey fell by 2 USD/tonne to 518 USD/tonne CFR. The Turkish domestic market also remained stable due to sluggish trading, with domestic billet prices holding at 525 USD/tonne EXW this week, and domestic rebar prices also remaining steady in the first two days of the week.

Under the EU's new steel safeguard measures, Turkey, India, Japan, South Korea, and Ukraine have collectively secured around 2.74 million tonnes per year of duty-free allocations in product category 1A (HRC), representing 53% of the total quota volume. The current duty-free quota for HRC stands at 5.2 million tonnes/year, a 59% reduction from the previous 12.6 million tonnes/year. Turkey saw its quota drop from 1.59 million to 642,000 tonnes/year (down 60%), while Japan's volume rose 24% to 551,500 tonnes/year. Ukraine received 483,500 tonnes/year. The new system also creates supplementary quota pools for FTA and non-FTA countries.

The European Union has drastically reduced its steel import quota cap by 12 million tonnes, slashing the total limit from 30.5 million tonnes to 18.3 million tonnes. This policy shift heavily impacts Turkey, cutting its hot-rolled coil (HRC) allocation by approximately 60% to 642,295 tonnes and rebar by over 36% to 239,676 tonnes. Additionally, the restriction alters global supply dynamics, forcing around 8.5 million tonnes of East Asian steel to find alternative global markets annually. While European steel prices are expected to rise briefly following the July 1 customs clearance, weak summer demand will likely cap these gains. In the scrap market, tight European domestic supply has pushed dockside delivery prices to €275/tonne, with German delivered prices sitting €10 to €15/tonne higher than Netherlands dockside rates; however, weakened Turkish steel sales will ultimately exert dominant downward pressure on the market. Meanwhile, US export prices have fallen by $30/tonne and US East Coast dockside prices dropped by $15 to $20/gross ton. Although two major Turkish mills temporarily stabilized import prices by heavily restocking 16 cargoes at higher rates, a subsequent purchasing pause is expected to trigger further downward adjustments.

The European Commission established a new steel trade regime with a total annual tariff quota volume of 18.35 million metric tons (mt) distributed across 26 product categories, with half allocated exclusively to free trade agreement (FTA) partners. Category 1A (hot-rolled sheets and strips) represents nearly one-third of the total volume at roughly 5.2 million mt, a significant reduction from 7.7 million mt in the previous quota year. Turkey received the largest Category 1A country-specific quota (CSQ) at 642,295 mt, followed by India (597,274 mt) and Japan (551,539 mt), while quotas for cold-rolled coil (Category 4A) and metallic coated sheets were sharply slashed to 1.5 million mt and 1.6 million mt, respectively. The steep reduction in volume allowances, particularly in flat products, highlights a protectionist pivot designed to shield European producers from import influxes amidst structurally weak domestic demand.

[Flat Products]Yuan Volatility Pressures Plate Export Quotes Lower Day-on-Day Pressured by yuan volatility, HRC and other plate export prices edged lower day-on-day today, with HRC export deals at 490-500 USD/tonne FOB. Inquiries showed no notable change; Turkey-bound interest persisted but local target CFR levels were low, well below current domestic FOB offers. [Billet]Billet Export Edges Up as Middle East Inquiries Rise but Buyers Press Prices Billet export prices edged up today, with workable FOB levels at 463-465 USD/tonne. Middle East inquiries increased but overseas buyers pressed hard on price, leaving few workable orders; additionally, some mills have upcoming maintenance plans and are slightly restraining order-taking. [Rebar]Rebar Export Prices Hold Steady, Off-Season Trading Stays Weak Rebar export prices held steady today, with workable FOB levels in the 481-483 USD/tonne range. Market participants noted that recent rebar export prices have trended down and deals improved slightly versus earlier, but constrained by off-season demand and overseas price pressure, overall trading remains weak. [India]Indian HRC Prices Hold Steady, Anti-Dumping Probe Lends Policy Support India's HRC market was relatively stable, with Mumbai HRC holding around 611 USD/tonne EXW as buyers purchased on demand to avoid building stocks. Although the monsoon season dampened trade, manufacturing demand stayed relatively steady. India has launched anti-dumping probes on hot-rolled flat products from China, Japan and Russia, and combined with the import price gap, HRC may prove more resilient than long products in the near term. [Vietnam]ASEAN HRC Prices Slide, Traders' Low Offers Fail to Move Vietnamese Buyers To stimulate buying, ASEAN HRC import prices fell to 550 USD/tonne CFR, with offers for Indian-origin SAE1006 HRC for Aug-Sep shipment down to about 540 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam (further below the weekly assessment). Amid slow trade and cautious buyers, these low offers may reflect short-selling by some traders betting on further declines, but Vietnamese buyers, expecting weakness, remain unwilling to accept them. On scrap, US West Coast HMS 80:20 offers fell to about 390 USD/tonne CFR with workable levels around 385-387, while Japanese H2 traded at about 370 USD/tonne CFR, flat week-on-week; weak residential construction demand keeps import scrap soft. [Turkey]Turkey Long Product Prices Fall Broadly as Mills Cut to Win Orders Dragged by weak fundamentals, Turkish rebar export prices assessed by MESTEEL fell to 580-590 USD/tonne FOB, while wire rod export prices likewise slid to 595-605 USD/tonne FOB. With demand showing no improvement, mills remain willing to concede on price in negotiations to secure enough forward export orders to sustain operations. [Iran]Iran Plate Exports Stay Sluggish as Rising Imports Pressure Domestic Prices Although temporary export curbs were lifted in late May, major mills' output remains constrained by the late-March attacks, with producers prioritizing domestic supply and shipping mainly from existing stocks. Slab demand was weak last week, with only about 18000 tonnes traded at 462 USD/tonne EXW. As the Strait of Hormuz reopened, freight fell and Chinese prices dropped, Iranian plate imports rose, with Persian Gulf import HRC down to 560-570 USD/tonne CFR; a roughly 30000-tonne mixed billet-and-HRC cargo arrived at BIK port via Iskenderun last week.

[SMM Steel] Market feedback indicates that the current CIF buying price for SAE1006 HRC is $535/mt, with the port of loading being Jingtang Port, the destination country Turkey, and a trading volume of approximately 50,000 mt.