[SMM Tungsten Analysis: Tug-of-war Between Mine-side Price Holding and End-user Off-season, Short-term Tungsten Market Likely to Move Sideways] SMM July 23 News: This week, the tungsten market center rebounded slightly. At the beginning of the week, upstream raw material transactions turned active, and the market transaction center edged up slightly. Mine-side suppliers’ sentiment of holding back from selling intensified, and prices held firm. However, there was ample supply of low and medium-grade ore in the market, and the price spread between high-grade and low-grade ore transaction prices widened. At the start of the week, a tungsten enterprise in Jiangxi published its long-term contract prices, which were generally close to the spot order transaction prices of that day. The price spread between long-term contracts and spot orders narrowed. As the weekend approached, market sentiment diverged,

Entering late July, China's tungsten market has overall moved into a phase of stage-based consolidation and repair. Following a sustained deep pullback in tungsten prices, low-priced goods in the market have become hard to find, as upstream mines and supplier traders have been hoarding, holding back from selling, and showing a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while the center of spot order transactions has steadily moved higher. Coupled with the boost to market sentiment from long-term contract purchase quotations by leading tungsten enterprises, transaction activity at the mine and APT ends has recently warmed up. However, constrained by the traditional consumption off-season in the industry, downstream end-use demand has yet to see a marked recovery, leaving the overall market in a structurally split pattern, with upstream raw material prices rebounding as suppliers hold prices firm, while downstream demand remains relatively weak. A Tungsten Enterprise Lowers Long-Term Contract Quotations for the Second Half of July A tungsten enterprise has lowered its long-term contract quotations for the second half of July, as detailed below: According to the long-term contract purchase quotations of a tungsten enterprise in Chongyi for the second half of July, the details are as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 411,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 410,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 3. APT (national standard grade 0): 605,000 yuan/mt, down by 55,000 yuan/mt from the previous quotation. Tungsten Prices Bid Farewell to Declines, Notch Two Consecutive Gains Looking back at the trend in this cycle, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to the previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in mid-to-early June, the trend continued to weaken. The core drag factor was the persistently sluggish downstream end-use demand, compounded by the ongoing digestion cycle of raw material inventories after earlier concentrated stockpiling by enterprises, which significantly weakened market price support. Starting from June 17, tungsten prices embarked on an overall weak downward path. Compared to the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average price of 402,500 yuan/standard tonne on July 17 marked a decline of 125,000 yuan/standard tonne over a period of just over one month, a drop of 23.7%. After the rapid pullback in tungsten prices, stage-based bottom support gradually emerged in the tungsten market. The tightening of upstream goods and rising sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm pushed tungsten prices to stop falling and stabilize, then ushered in a two-consecutive-day rebound. According to SMM quotations, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 21 was 410,000~415,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 412,500 yuan/standard tonne, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. Currently, low-priced goods on the market are quite scarce, and suppliers have generally ceased offloading at low prices. Coupled with the fact that long-term contract purchase prices from leading tungsten enterprises are higher than mainstream spot transaction prices, this has effectively boosted market confidence, driving spot transaction prices to gradually converge with long-term contract prices. Market Outlook Short term, supported by tightening raw material supply and strong sentiment among suppliers to hold prices firm, the tungsten market will mainly see a slight rebound and consolidation at lows in late July, and the market does not yet have the conditions for a significant reversal. A substantial recovery in the market still hinges on the traditional downstream consumption peak season from August to September, driven by end-user order recovery and the release of concentrated restocking demand to push prices higher. Currently, the industry chain has relatively consistent expectations for the seasonal recovery, and some enterprises may gradually begin advance stockpiling at low prices, which is expected to bring marginal improvement to the tungsten market. At present, the tungsten market is at a critical period of stopping the decline and consolidating at lows, with market recovery focused on the upstream raw material side. The downstream tungsten powder and cemented carbide sectors remain trapped in the traditional consumption off-season, with stable end-user operating rates and scarce new orders. Enterprises generally adopt a just-in-time essential restocking strategy, with no large-scale stockpiling activity, unable to support a significant rise in raw material prices. However, the industry chain has formed a broad consensus on the market recovery after August, and advance stockpiling at low prices in the market is gradually increasing, which is expected to drive the industry chain’s marginal improvement earlier. Markets outside China are affected by the summer holiday, with sluggish trading and high prices but no actual transactions, as prices continue to consolidate at high levels, with very low risk of a sharp decline. The divergent pattern between domestic and overseas markets is expected to persist. Going forward, close attention will be paid to four key variables: first, the pace of supply release from domestic mines and changes in suppliers’ holding firm sentiment; second, the pace of downstream cemented carbide end-user operating rate recovery and the strength of concentrated restocking; third, the market guidance role of APT long-term contract prices; fourth, the circulation volume of recycled tungsten scrap and the procurement release of downstream recycled raw materials. Recommended reading:

[Tungsten Express] SMM, July 16: Tungsten concentrates held steady today. Yesterday, auctions of tungsten ore at mines in Yunnan and Hunan were all successfully concluded, with high-grade 50% ore from a mine sold at over 400,000 yuan per standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), boosting market confidence. As the tungsten market fell steadily for a month, supplier inventories were gradually destocked. Some suppliers, bullish on the outlook, largely suspended shipments, making it harder for downstream buyers to push for lower prices and edging the bargaining center slightly higher. Currently, 55% tungsten concentrates were traded at 380,000-405,000 yuan per standard tonne (65%WO3 basis). A small number of smelters restocked on a need-to basis at low prices. In the short term, the market has entered a phase of consolidation with seesaw movements at lows.

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Multiple Bearish Factors Weigh on Tungsten Market, Short-Term Weak Consolidation] SMM July 13 news: Overall, the China tungsten market in July faces multiple bearish factors, including pending clearance of previous inventories of upstream tungsten concentrates and smelting products, weakening demand from downstream cemented carbide during the off-season, and tightening export control policies that leave little room for growth in export orders. In the short term, the market will mainly follow a downward trend to hit bottom.

In H1 2026, the tungsten market was largely driven by supply-side dynamics, experiencing a complete cycle of sharp rises and falls before finally retreating from highs to close the half-year. Entering H2, the annual tungsten ore mining quotas have been fully implemented, monthly mine output has stabilized, and there is no significant room for further production cuts or new volume increases.

[Tungsten Express] SMM July 13 News: The tungsten market mainly consolidated on a weak note, with spot market transactions significantly lower than online prices. Last Friday, a Guangdong enterprise sharply lowered its long-term contract prices, and the long-term contract price for 55% wolframite concentrates was set at 411,000 yuan, slightly higher than the spot order transaction price on that day. As of today, the spot wolframite concentrates market experienced some price collapse. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and some traders entered the market to buy at low prices. Market transactions took place below the long-term contract price range, with some medium- to low-grade ore transactions at 380,000-390,000 yuan per standard tonne (65% WO3 basis). High-grade ore prices showed resistance to declines, with transaction prices concentrated around 390,000-410,000 yuan per standard tonne (65% WO3 basis).