[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Aluminum Futures Closed Lower, Spot Cargo Under Short-Term Pressure] On Wednesday, the ADC12 market generally showed a downward trend, with mainstream producers broadly lowering quotes by 100 yuan/mt. This price adjustment was mainly driven by the pullback in aluminum prices, which weakened cost support. Enterprises accordingly adjusted their quotes in line with market changes, but the overall magnitude of the adjustment remained relatively restrained, indicating a rather cautious market sentiment.

SMM News, March 19: SHFE aluminum 2603 fluctuated downward in early trading, with the price center falling sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchasing sentiment rose today. Sellers held prices firm, and today’s market mainstream quotations and transaction prices were mainly concentrated around the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in east China was 3.24, up 0.08 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.16, up 0.13 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices extended losses, and buying sentiment in the central China market was strong. Traders and downstream processing enterprises were both bullish and tended to purchase at low prices with moderate stockpiling. Meanwhile, suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and transaction premiums showed no sign of weakening. In the end, quotations in the central China market were mainly concentrated at premiums of 10-40 yuan over the central China price, while actual transaction prices were mainly concentrated at premiums of 20-30 yuan over the central China price. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.59, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.43, up 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 3,000 mt MoM today, with inventory buildup seen across all three regions. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Continued to Pull Back, Stainless Steel Spot Quotes Were Lowered SMM News on March 19: SS futures extended their further downward pullback. Against the backdrop of hawkish remarks from the US Fed and escalating geopolitical conflicts, non-ferrous metal futures generally moved lower, with SS also declining in tandem and closing at 13,935 yuan/mt by the midday break. In the spot market, continued declines in SS futures significantly weakened market confidence; coupled with the recent pullback in high-grade NPI prices, market expectations for cost support also softened. In a market where transactions had already been sluggish this week, inquiries and deals weakened further; in addition, March supply remained high, prompting traders to lower their quotes for 304 stainless steel during the day. However, supported by news yesterday that steel mills were holding prices firm, 200-series stainless steel rose against the trend, with 201 stainless steel prices moving higher. Further attention should still be paid to downstream end-user purchase conditions. The most-traded SS futures contract fell and pulled back. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 13,930 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 340-540 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 150 yuan/mt and in Foshan fell 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi fell 200 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes fell 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2... in both Wuxi and Foshan.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Pulled Back Significantly, Downstream Inquiries and Procurement Decreased] Affected by fluctuations in futures prices, confidence in the Pr-Nd oxide market dropped sharply. Traders proactively sold off cargoes at low prices, causing transaction prices in the Pr-Nd oxide market to fall rapidly. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices had already pulled back to 690,000-700,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Weak Supply and Demand Dominated Magnesium Price Trends, with Structural Divergence Across Segments] This week, trends across various products in China’s magnesium industry chain diverged, while the overall market maintained a core tone of stability with rangebound fluctuations. The stalemate in market supply and demand became more pronounced, with insufficient momentum for a unilateral market move. The upstream dolomite market remained stable. Although a top-tier enterprise in the Wutai region suspended production, ample raw material inventory in place and timely capacity replenishment in major producing areas, coupled with the steady pace of just-in-time procurement by primary magnesium enterprises, kept prices stable without fluctuations. As the core product, magnesium ingot prices in China’s main producing areas consolidated at high levels, and mainstream transaction prices remained stable. Market transactions showed mediocre performance, producers had strong sentiment to hold back sales, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, quotations fluctuated rangebound. On the foreign trade side, FOB quotations loosened slightly. As ocean freight rates pulled back, inquiries from outside China recovered somewhat, and there were expectations for more long-term orders. Supported by raw materials and boosted by incoming foreign trade orders, the magnesium powder market saw firm quotations and held up well. Industry operating rates gradually recovered in March, and support from the demand side became increasingly evident. Magnesium alloy market prices overall remained stable. On the supply side, with top-tier enterprises resuming operations and newly added capacity gradually coming online and releasing volume, downstream buyers mainly focused on just-in-time restocking, presenting a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to remain in the doldrums going forward. Looking across the entire industry chain, there have been no major changes in current market fundamentals, and in the short term, the market will still likely be dominated by steady fluctuations and localized marginal adjustments.