As we near the midpoint of the year, zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) have repeatedly tumbled to historic lows. As of June 5, the average TC for domestic zinc concentrate fell to 50 yuan per metric ton of metal content, while the TC for imported zinc concentrate dropped to -70.75 US dollars per dry metric ton.

Konkola Copper Mines (KCM), owned by Vedanta, has started a 60-day maintenance shutdown at its Nchanga copper smelter. The outage is expected to increase concentrate inventories and may lead to higher export volumes during the maintenance period. Industry participants see the shutdown as one reason behind Zambia’s recent extension of duty-free concentrate exports. The development could influence regional concentrate flows and treatment charge dynamics.

As of May 26, the Shanghai-LME zinc price ratio stood at 6.97, continuing its downward trend from 7.4 recorded in late March, which has led to a widening import loss of refined zinc ingots in China. According to calculations by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), the current import loss of China’s refined zinc ingots has expanded to approximately RMB 3,800 per metric ton of metal.

According to the China Earthquake Networks Center, at 5:52 AM Beijing time on May 26, 2026 (5:52 PM local time on May 25), a magnitude 6.9 earthquake struck the Antofagasta Region in northern Chile, with a focal depth of approximately 114 kilometers. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measured the focal depth at approximately 109 kilometers. Within a 200-kilometer radius of the epicenter, 21 earthquakes of magnitude 3 or above have occurred in the past five years, the largest being a magnitude 7.3 earthquake on July 19, 2024. The Antofagasta Region is Chile's core mining area and a globally significant copper mine concentration zone. Following the earthquake, the global copper market quickly turned its attention to local mine production and transportation conditions. Codelco stated that due to low visibility in mine pits and localized power outages, the company had suspended some production activities and initiated safety inspection procedures. According to SMM, the affected mines under Codelco have now resumed normal production. Global mining giant BHP and Antofagasta PLC indicated that their operations were generally unaffected, but they had temporarily halted some operations in accordance with emergency protocols to conduct safety assessments of facilities. Chile's National Disaster Prevention and Response Service (SENAPRED) reported that the earthquake triggered landslides in some production areas, and Calama experienced power outages and localized water supply disruptions. However, no casualties or major infrastructure damage had been reported, and ports and major transportation facilities were currently operating normally. Although this earthquake was of relatively high magnitude with a deep focal point, given Chile's relatively mature seismic-resistant mining infrastructure system, the actual impact of this event on the global copper supply chain was temporarily limited, manifesting more as short-term sentiment disturbance. However, as the world's largest copper-producing country, Chile holds a pivotal position in the global copper supply chain. Data from China's General Administration of Customs showed that from January to April 2026, China imported a total of 9.9151 million mt in physical content of copper concentrates, of which 3.0526 million mt in physical content were imported from Chile, accounting for approximately 30.79%. Chile remained China's largest source of copper concentrates imports. Against the backdrop of already tight global copper concentrates supply and persistently low treatment charges (TCs), any production disruption from Chile's core mining areas could trigger copper price fluctuations. If subsequent situations arise such as prolonged mine shutdowns, hindered port transportation, or slow power restoration, this could further push up international copper prices and the performance of related non-ferrous metals sectors. As of now, major miners in Chile have not disclosed any significant facility damage or long-term shutdown information.

During the May Day holiday in 2026, LME zinc traded in a general sideways range, finding solid support at the 40-day moving average. In terms of specific performance, LME zinc showed an N-shaped trend of rising first, then falling and rebounding again.

SMM Analysis: Maintenance Recovery & Falling Zinc TC Shape May Refined Lead Output Outlook SMM May 1 News: In April 2026, China's refined lead production continued its modest upward trend, rising 1.22% month-on-month and 3.01% year-on-year.