[ADC12 Price Daily: ADC12 Prices Generally Stable with Slight Rise, Inverted Domestic-Overseas Spread Continues to Narrow] Quotes in the secondary aluminum alloy market predominantly held steady with a slight rise today. The SMM ADC12 price increased by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 24,050 yuan/mt. The rebound in aluminum prices and high cost-side operations remained key factors supporting enterprise quotes. Tight supply of aluminum scrap and persistently high procurement costs kept enterprises' willingness to cut prices low.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: ADC12 Spot Stable on Cost Support; Warrant Destocking and Continued Narrowing of Price Spread Between Chinese and Overseas Markets] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract opened at 22,870 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 22,900 yuan/mt, fell to a session low of 22,700 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,835 yuan/mt, edging down 55 yuan/mt from the previous settlement of 22,820 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.24%.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Pullback in Rate Hike Expectations Supports LME Zinc Center Uptick] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,471/mt, which marked the intraday low. Subsequently, bulls added to positions, and LME zinc climbed steadily, hitting a high of $3,549/mt near the end of the session. It finally closed up at $3,548/mt, up $75.5/mt, a gain of 2.17%. Trading volume dipped to 9,993 lots, while open interest increased by 2,517 lots to 271,000 lots.

The gap between Q3 QMJP offers and actual transaction prices in the Japanese market has widened significantly. At present, the physical spot premium for primary aluminum ingots in Japan stands at USD 395 per metric ton, representing an increase of USD 43.5 per ton versus Q2. Nevertheless, overall market sentiment remains bearish, with spot transactions oscillating around the USD 385 per ton mark. The dual pressures from supply and demand fundamentals constitute the core driver behind the softening spot premium in Japan. On the supply side, market expectations for growing global aluminum supply surplus have intensified steadily. In addition, steady progress has been made in resuming aluminum production capacity in the Middle East, reinforcing expectations of rising overseas supply and capping upward room for spot premiums. On the demand side, Japan has entered its traditional seasonal lull in consumption as scheduled. Downstream end-users have slowed purchasing activity amid sluggish demand, gaining stronger bargaining power and shifting the supply-demand negotiation dynamic firmly in favor of buyers. As a result, the spread between QMJP ingot offers and physical transaction prices in Japan ranges from USD 65 to 70 per ton. Following the official release of Q3 QMJP pricing, spot offer prices in Japan firmed up temporarily, yet this failed to boost trading volumes, leaving the market locked in a stalemate between bulls and bears. Amid persistent expectations of expanded supply, the temporary firmness in spot prices is projected to give way to corrective declines. The bearish overall trend for Japanese aluminum ingot premiums in Q3 is unlikely to reverse. In other regional markets, trading activity in the spot aluminum ingot markets of Thailand and South Korea remained extremely muted this week with subdued overall liquidity. In the early week, ahead of the official publication of Q3 QMJP benchmarks, both traders and downstream manufacturers adopted a wait-and-see stance, limiting inventory restocking strictly to immediate operational needs. After the latest Q3 QMJP prices were released, benchmark levels fell short of pre-market consensus forecasts, prompting sellers across Southeast Asia and South Korea to lift their asking prices. Actual trading data, however, shows downstream buyers in Thailand and South Korea continued to purchase only to cover rigid demand, lacking substantive demand support. Spot premiums and discounts have thus remained range-bound at elevated levels. In the short term, resuming Middle Eastern smelter capacity and incremental overseas aluminum supply will continue to cap premium upside, compounded by weak seasonal end-user demand that adds further downward pressure to the market. Asian spot aluminum ingot premiums and discounts are therefore expected to maintain divergent, softening momentum, marked by volatile asking prices and persistently thin physical trading volumes in the near term.

SMM News Release, July 3 Domestic molybdenum market saw a trend of correction at the start of June, rally in mid-month and narrow high-level fluctuations at month-end, with mainstream products posting modest gains throughout the month.

This week, rare earth oxide and metal prices outside China remained largely stable amid sluggish trading, while price fluctuations in China had not yet been transmitted. Industrial developments were intensive: India’s Mecwin teamed up with Germany’s Fraunhofer to lay out the entire NdFeB industry chain; Sweden approved a 25-year lease for the North Kärr rare earth mine, and Namibia’s Kieshoehe project verified deep potential. Iluka obtained an Australian government loan to advance the Eneabba refinery, and ULVAC, driven by surging demand in Europe and the United States, planned to build a new melting furnace production line in Japan. U.S. and Australian enterprises achieved breakthroughs in high-purity rare earth refining and hard disk recycling technologies, while Canada and Japan actively promoted cooperation on the critical minerals supply chain.