According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in January-May 2026, China's cumulative imports of refined lead and lead materials totaled 248,443 mt, a YoY surge of 291.06%. The import window remained open throughout H1, with a steady influx of supply from outside China, and total imports had already exceeded the level for the full year 2025. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead materials in January-May stood at only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, and remained at a low level overall.

In May, China's silver concentrate imports fell 15.8% MoM, with Peru remaining the top supplier. Refined silver exports dropped 11% MoM, while imports plunged 69% as the price premium narrowed. Trade windows are gradually normalizing toward June.

Q1 2026 Japan MJP (main ports) aluminum ingot premium is expected to rebound from the low of $86/mt in Q4 2025, with the center rising. The core logic stems from tightening supply in Asia triggered by the restructuring of global aluminum trade flows, coupled with catalysts from European carbon policies and structural demand support. The latest offers from leading smelters have already indicated an upward trend, but restocking constraints due to the end of Japan's fiscal year may limit the extent of the rebound. Detailed analysis is as follows:

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Fundamentals Present Mixed Bullish and Bearish Factors, SHFE Aluminum Maintains Fluctuating Trend] On the night of November 4, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened higher but came under pressure and pulled back, then entered a period of consolidation, ultimately stabilizing at a high level. The 2512 contract opened at 21,395 yuan/mt, reached a high of 21,440 yuan/mt and a low of 21,335 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,405 yuan/mt, down 0.28% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,403 > MA10: 21,320 > MA20: 21,140.25 > MA60: 20,845.83), while the MACD on the 4-hour candlestick chart maintained a golden cross (DIFF: 125.94, DEA: 115.85). In terms of trend, although prices at the night session pulled back from the intraday high, they ultimately closed at 21,405 yuan/mt, above most short-term moving averages, indicating that the current upward trend remains technically intact, though short-term pullback risks should be noted.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Supply Side Dominate the Market, SHFE Aluminum to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] On the night of November 3, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened lower, fluctuated higher, and overall remained stable at highs. It opened at 21,555 yuan/mt, reached a high of 21,610 yuan/mt and a low of 21,435 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,570 yuan/mt, up 0.42% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,402 > MA10: 21,294.5 > MA20: 21,109.75 > MA60: 20,831.33), while the MACD 4-hour candlestick maintained a golden cross (DIFF: 133.99, DEA: 108.41). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel. Although prices at the night session pulled back from the intraday high, they ultimately closed at 21,570 yuan/mt, above most short-term moving averages, indicating that the current upward trend has not been technically broken.