SMM Nickel October 21 News: Macro and Market News: (1) Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun presided over a regular press conference yesterday. A reporter asked that China and the US will hold a new round of China-US economic and trade consultations, and US President Trump stated that the US has listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues raised by the US towards China. In response, Guo Jiakun said that China's position on handling China-US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear. Tariff wars and trade wars are not in the interest of either side, and both sides should resolve any issues through consultations on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. (2) The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data today showing that, based on preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first three quarters was 101.5036 trillion yuan, calculated at constant prices, up 5.2% YoY. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 5,806.1 billion yuan, up 3.8% YoY; the value added of the secondary industry was 36,402 billion yuan, up 4.9% YoY; and the value added of the tertiary industry was 59,295.5 billion yuan, up 5.4% YoY. By quarter, GDP grew 5.4% YoY in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1% in Q3. Spot Market: On October 21, the price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 121,100-123,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,500 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,400-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-200 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) fluctuated rangebound at high levels during the night session, closing slightly higher at the tail. On the 21st, the SHFE nickel early session opened at 121,270 yuan/mt (up 520 yuan), with the futures maintaining strong performance. Recent focus should be on US inflation data and US Fed policy signals, while progress in China-US trade talks will also impact the market. Against the backdrop of weak fundamentals and turbulent external conditions, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with the reference range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.

Macro News 1. On the afternoon of June 12, Premier Li Qiang met with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Li Qiang pointed out that China and Europe have strong economic complementarity, with China possessing a super-sized market advantage and continuously unleashing market potential. There is significant cooperation potential between China and Europe in many fields. China is willing to strengthen market connectivity and industrial synergy with Europe to add more momentum to their respective development. Lagarde stated that under the current international situation full of uncertainties, maintaining high-level exchanges and dialogue cooperation between Europe and China is crucial. Tariff wars and trade wars only lead to lose-lose outcomes, while adhering to multilateralism and strengthening open cooperation is the right choice. 2. On the afternoon of June 12, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. A reporter inquired about the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong stated that from June 9 to 10 local time, the China-US economic and trade teams held the first meeting of the consultation mechanism in London, UK. The two sides reached a principled consensus on implementing the important consensus of the June 5 phone call between the two heads of state and the framework of measures to consolidate the outcomes of the Geneva economic and trade talks, making new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. Regarding the rare earth issue, as a responsible major country, China fully considers the reasonable needs and concerns of various countries in the private sector, reviews applications for export licenses of rare earth-related items in accordance with laws and regulations, has approved a certain number of compliant applications according to law, and will continue to strengthen the approval of compliant applications. 3. On June 11, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng held the first annual meeting with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. The two sides exchanged in-depth views on topics including the economic and financial situations of China and Europe, reform of the international monetary system, global financial regulation, and key areas of cooperation between the two central banks. After the meeting, the two sides signed the Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation between the People's Bank of China and the European Central Bank. 4. A passenger plane crashed at Ahmedabad Airport in Gujarat, India, on June 12. According to reports, all 242 people on board were killed. CCTV News learned that local police found one survivor in the Indian plane crash. 5. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian presided over the regular press conference yesterday. A foreign media reporter asked about US President Trump's post on his social media platform, claiming that an agreement had been reached with China, such as China providing rare earth magnets. Lin Jian stated that China always honors its words with actions. Since a consensus has been reached, both sides should abide by it, and China hopes the US will work with China to implement the important consensus reached in the phone call between the two heads of state. Industry News 2. Recently, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly issued the "Several Measures on Financial Support for Fujian to Explore a New Path for Cross-Strait Integrated Development and Build a Demonstration Zone for Cross-Strait Integrated Development." TheThe "Several Measures" proposes 12 policy measures in four aspects: optimizing the financial ecosystem of the cross-strait shared "living circle", serving the construction of the first home for Taiwan compatriots and Taiwan-funded enterprises to land on the mainland, supporting the pilot program for high-level opening-up of cross-border trade in Fuzhou, Xiamen, and Quanzhou, supporting the facilitation of cross-border investment and financing under the capital account, comprehensively strengthening financial supervision, and effectively preventing and defusing financial risks. These measures are of great significance for continuously deepening the construction of a demonstration zone for cross-strait integrated development and promoting high-level financial opening-up. The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will promote the detailed implementation of various policy measures outlined in the "Several Measures", further intensify financial support for the integrated development across the Taiwan Strait, and provide strong financial support for the construction of the demonstration zone for cross-strait integrated development. 3. At the Annual Meeting of the Asia Traders Forum & Stock Trading Summit 2025, Tim LUI, Chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong, stated that the SFC is studying plans to adjust the number of shares per trading lot, thereby enhancing the convenience of trading high-priced stocks and odd lots, and further improving market liquidity. 4. The General Office of the People's Government of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region recently issued the "Implementation Plan for Special Actions to Boost Consumption in Guangxi". It mentions expanding support for trade-in policies for automobiles, home appliances, home improvement, kitchen and bathroom products, and e-bikes, as well as subsidies for purchasing new 3C digital products. 5. In 2025, Urumqi plans to develop 82 cultural and tourism projects with a total investment of 44.815 billion yuan and an annual planned investment of 5.4116 billion yuan, representing increases of 76%, 181%, and 170% respectively compared to 2024. The focus will be on introducing a batch of high-end hotel cluster projects, creating a number of major construction projects, and building a comprehensive cultural and tourism space integrating cultural experiences, commercial consumption, and leisure and entertainment. 6. With the "Suzhou Super League" gaining widespread popularity, some netizens have called on Sichuan to host similar football events through the "Ask the Government Sichuan" platform. In response, the Sichuan Provincial Sports Bureau stated that the "Bashu Xiongqi Cup" Sichuan Super League will learn from the healthy development experience of the "Suzhou Super League", improve the event system, strengthen supervision, promote fair competition, mobilize social forces to participate, facilitate the development of mass football and campus football, and support nationwide fitness. Company News 1. New China Life Insurance announced its intention to subscribe for private equity fund shares with an investment not exceeding 15 billion yuan. 2. China Vanke Co., Ltd. announced that it sold a total of 72.96 million A-share treasury shares from June 10 to June 12, which will help supplement the company's working capital. 3. *ST Gongzhi announced that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has decided to terminate the listing of the company's shares. 4. Yidian Technology stated on an interactive platform that POP MART is an important client of the company. 5. ST Jinyi announced that the other risk warnings for the company's shares have been revoked, and trading will resume from June 16. 6. Xiaofang Pharmaceutical announced a collaboration with Shanghai Dermatology Hospital to develop Compound Platycladi Tincture, a Class 1.1 traditional Chinese medicine for treating hair loss. 7. PowerChina secured a 10.77 billion yuan offshore wind power EPC turnkey project. 8. Qingmu Technology clarified that it currently only provides e-commerce agency operation services for Pop Mart's Tmall flagship store. 9. Taiji Co., Ltd. disclosed that its controlling shareholder and actual controller are planning matters related to changes in company control, leading to a trading suspension. 10. Hengbao Co., Ltd. announced that director and vice president Gao Qiang plans to sell no more than 197,500 shares. 11. Jingjin Equipment reported that its actual controller, chairman, and general manager has been placed under retention. 12. Feiliner completed verification work, with its shares resuming trading on June 13. Global Markets US and European stocks showed mixed performance, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones hitting at least three-month closing highs. US stocks opened lower but closed higher, with all three major indices posting slight gains. The S&P 500 rose 0.38%, the Dow gained 0.24%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.24%. The S&P 500 reached its highest closing level since late February, while the Dow achieved its best close since early March. Oracle surged over 13% to a record high after exceeding Q4 earnings expectations. US fintech firm Chime jumped over 37% on its debut. Boeing fell nearly 5% following an Air India Boeing 787 crash. European indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.48%. International crude oil futures settled slightly lower. WTI July crude dropped 0.16%, while Brent August crude declined 0.59%. COMEX gold futures rose 0.84% to $3,406.8/oz, and silver futures gained 0.41% to $36.41/oz. Investment Opportunities 1. Pop Mart Expanded Capacity Early This Year, But Demand Far Exceeds Supply Chain Response Media reports indicate that since Chinese New Year, Pop Mart has urgently recalled workers and expanded capacity to meet surging demand driven by rising IP popularity. An insider described this as a "sweet trouble" where market demand vastly outpaces supply chain responsiveness, noting "even overworked sewing machines can't keep up." The core appeal of IP collectibles lies in instant emotional gratification. Labubu's distinctive features meet specific demands, amplified through social media. Current supply shortages and product scarcity further elevate circulation premiums, significantly boosting visibility. Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that it is optimistic about the investment value of the IP industry and anticipates the growth and commercialization of major IPs. Three directions are worth noting: (1) Leading companies in the IP2C model for trendy toys that possess a high-quality IP matrix, strong operational capabilities, and channel strength; (2) Content producers with strong content creation capabilities; (3) IP operators in the IP2B2C model that possess high-quality IPs and B-end customer resources. 2. German nuclear fusion startup ProximaFusion secures record-breaking funding On Wednesday local time, German nuclear fusion startup ProximaFusion announced that it had raised €130 million (equivalent to $148 million) in a record-breaking funding round. Investors have high hopes that the company will be the first to build the world's first commercial nuclear fusion power plant. ProximaFusion's Series A funding round was co-led by CherryVentures and BaldertonCapital, marking the largest private nuclear fusion investment round in Europe to date. In recent years, market interest in nuclear fusion technology has continued to grow. Founder Securities' machinery equipment team is optimistic that the timeline for global nuclear fusion could be advanced. Currently, the European Commission (EC) has officially launched a four-week consultation period, which will help the EU establish a leading position in global nuclear fusion development and accelerate the commercialization of fusion energy. 3. Cumulative financing exceeds 1 billion yuan in the first half of the year; experts say commercial space is experiencing unprecedented development opportunities Media reports indicate that China's commercial space industry in 2025 is accelerating at an unprecedented pace towards industrialization. One of the most telling signs is the "real money" coming from the capital market. According to incomplete statistics by reporters, in the first five months of this year alone, the publicly disclosed and estimable financing amounts in China's commercial space sector have cumulatively exceeded 1 billion yuan. Recently, there have been continuous developments in the commercial space sector. LandSpace Technology Corporation's independently developed ZQ-2 Modification 2 remote sensing launch vehicle successfully started production and lifted off; Beijing CAS Space Technology Co., Ltd.'s KQ-1 remote sensing 7 launch vehicle was successfully launched; and the "Tada Hu Yang No. 1" satellite was successfully launched by the KQ-1 remote sensing 7 launch vehicle. Experts interviewed stated that after several years of cultivation, China's commercial space industry is flourishing, with enterprises in commercial satellites, commercial rockets, commercial monitoring and control, and other sectors emerging like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. The commercialization of the entire industry chain is being prioritized, and the industry chain ecosystem is continuously improving. With the synergy of policies, technology, and the market, commercial space is experiencing unprecedented development opportunities. 4. AI development brings significant changes to the industry, continuously expanding the space for the industry chain Institutions have pointed out that switching networks are the "blood vessels" of AIDC. Since entering the era of large models, as the scale of clusters has accelerated its expansion, the interconnection requirements between computing cards have rapidly increased. As the hardware core supporting the interconnection network, the industry chain space for switches has been continuously expanding. Guojin Securities believes that domestic large models are rapidly advancing from a scale of hundreds of billions of parameters to trillion and ten trillion parameters, and 800G switches will become an important driver for the rapid growth of the industry. Dell'Oro Group predicts that by 2025, the adoption rate of 800G switch ports is expected to exceed that of 400G data center switch ports, accounting for more than 25% of data center switch ports. The development of the AI industry has brought about significant changes to the switch industry. Along with the development of the domestic AI industry, domestic high-speed switches for training-side applications and domestic medium-speed switches for inference-side applications are on the verge of mass production. CPO, OCS, white-box switches, etc., are expected to become strategic highlands in the domestic switch industry, and enterprises with relevant layouts are worthy of close attention.

On the afternoon of June 12, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council met with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Li Qiang stated that currently, China-EU relations have become one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the EU. Last month, President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulatory messages with President Costa and President von der Leyen, providing strategic guidance for the two sides to further deepen their partnership. The essence of China-EU relations is mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, and strengthening cooperation between the two sides is an objective need and the general trend. China is willing to continue working together with the EU to consolidate political mutual trust, expand pragmatic cooperation, and jointly promote development and prosperity, benefiting both sides and the world. Li Qiang pointed out that the Chinese and European economies are highly complementary. China boasts the advantage of a super-large market and is continuously unleashing its market potential, indicating significant cooperation potential between China and the EU in many fields. China is willing to strengthen market connectivity and industrial synergy with the EU to add more impetus to their respective development. Against the backdrop of the current headwinds facing economic globalization, cooperation is the only way to achieve win-win results. As two major economies and forces, China and the EU should closely coordinate on multilateral issues, promote open cooperation, and make greater contributions to driving the global economic recovery and improving global governance. China is willing to strengthen cooperation with the ECB in areas such as the reform of the international monetary system. This year, China has implemented more proactive macro policies, intensified counter-cyclical adjustments, and adopted multiple measures to expand domestic demand and boost consumption, fully capable of offsetting the impact of external unfavourable factors. China will firmly expand its opening-up and share development opportunities with other countries. Lagarde stated that amid the current international situation full of uncertainties, it is crucial for Europe and China to maintain high-level exchanges, dialogue, and cooperation. The interests of Europe and China are intertwined, and they share common responsibilities in many aspects, such as safeguarding global financial stability and promoting the development of international trade. Tariff wars and trade wars will only lead to a lose-lose situation, and adhering to multilateralism and strengthening open cooperation are the correct choices. China's innovative development and corporate competitiveness in recent years have been impressive. The ECB is pleased to establish a meeting mechanism for central bank governors with China and hold its first meeting, committed to strengthening communication and coordination with Chinese financial institutions, expanding and deepening cooperation areas, jointly addressing global challenges, and injecting more stability and certainty into the world.

According to Mining Weekly, precious metals consultancy Metals Focus (MF) stated in its latest report, Gold Focus 2025, that growth in gold production will drive a 1% increase in global gold supply this year. The annual report, released last week, provides in-depth analysis of the global gold market, including historical supply and demand data from 2016 to 2024, as well as detailed forecasts for the current year. The report projects a 9% decline in total demand this year, primarily due to a double-digit drop in jewelry consumption. Gold prices are expected to reach new all-time highs later this year, driven by economic uncertainty stemming from US policies and geopolitical tensions, portfolio diversification, growing concerns about US debt, and robust central bank demand for gold. The average gold price in 2025 is expected to surge by 35% to a record level of $3,210 per ounce. According to MF's data, official net purchases of gold reached 1,086 mt in 2024, a historic high. This trend is attributed to "de-dollarization," prompting central banks to increase their gold reserves. Total sales also declined significantly last year, partly due to the absence of large-scale disposals like those seen in Turkey in 2023. MF found that macroeconomic uncertainty will keep central bank gold purchases at elevated levels, with net purchases projected at 1,000 mt in 2025. Mine production is also a key factor in supply changes. Global gold production from mines reached 3,661 mt in 2024, a 0.6% increase and a new record high. Growth was primarily driven by Mexico, Canada, and Ghana. The increase in production was accompanied by rising costs, with global all-in sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by 8% to $1,399 per ounce. This is attributed to inflationary pressures from rising gold prices and increased royalty fees. This year, mine gold production is expected to grow by 1% to 3,694 mt, thanks to the commissioning of new mining projects. Gold recycling surged to 1,368 mt in 2024, an 11% increase and a 12-year high. The vast majority of this growth came from China, which saw a 26% increase. Most regions experienced double-digit growth, driven by rising prices. However, India saw a decline in gold scrap production due to increased gold credit availability. In other regions, limited near-market stocks, widespread risk aversion, and persistent bullish price expectations constrained growth. MF expects gold recycling volumes to remain flat in 2025, as the factors that limited growth in 2024 are expected to persist despite rising gold prices. Jewelry demand is expected to decline significantly, with global manufacturing gold use falling by 9% in 2024. This is mainly due to weak demand in China. Excluding China, demand only fell by 1%, indicating resilience in other regions despite the increase in average prices. Net demand for gold in the jewelry industry dropped significantly by 34%, primarily due to an 11% increase in recycling volume. In 2025, it is expected that the decline in manufacturing usage will widen to 16% as rising gold prices exert severe pressure on price-sensitive markets such as India. In terms of investment, institutional demand continued to grow in 2024. This was driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and actual interest rate reductions, while heightened geopolitical instability, concerns over US debt, and the strong performance of the US stock market all supported continued portfolio diversification into gold. Overall, retail investment remained stable, with growth in demand from Asian investors offsetting significant declines in Western markets, as rising prices led to reduced consumption. Industrial gold demand showed mixed results, with gold demand in electronics increasing by 9% in 2024, mainly due to a rebound in electronic goods deliveries, manufacturing expansion, and growing demand for AI-related technologies. MF forecasts a further 3% increase in gold demand for electronics this year, despite facing tariff challenges. In 2024, demand for decorative and other industrial uses contracted by 1%, with declines observed in major markets such as India and Italy. Affected by structural adjustments in the industry, dental gold demand continued its long-term downward trend, declining by 5%. MF concludes that the fundamentals of gold were robust in 2024. This was supported by strong central bank gold-buying intentions, growth in mine production, increased recycling, and the resilience of Asian retail investment. Although jewelry demand declined, after adjusting for the extent of price increases, it still indicated ongoing consumer interest. Meanwhile, manufacturing gold demand continued to grow, driven by the electronics sector. Looking ahead, MF analyzed the risk factors and trends supporting gold prices in 2025. These include the trade policies of the current US administration, concerns over trade wars, fiscal uncertainty in the US, and expectations of further monetary easing by the US Fed. MF forecasts that gold prices will reach new highs this year, supported by investor caution and rising interest from government sectors. Company manager Philip Newman emphasized that central banks are turning to gold to hedge against geopolitical and currency risks. He also highlighted regional differences in bar and coin investment, the resilience of Asian retail demand, and the overall potential of gold as a non-yielding safe-haven asset. Newman stated that despite potential market volatility and corrections, the outlook remains generally optimistic, with an average price forecast of $3,210 per ounce this year, a level that will surpass the inflation-adjusted peak of 1980.

Recently, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (hereinafter referred to as "Freeport"), the largest copper producer in North America, stated that despite US President Trump's earlier claim that the copper tariffs he threatened to impose could support the US copper industry, the actual outcome might be counterproductive—tariffs could impact the economy, leading to a decline in copper demand, which would in turn be detrimental to the industry. Broad tariffs may instead dampen copper demand In recent times, US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on copper to drive the recovery of domestic industries. In late February this year, Trump instructed the US Secretary of Commerce to launch an investigation into foreign copper imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and submit a report within 270 days. As the largest copper producer in North America, the imposition of tariffs on copper imports by the US should have been a positive development for Freeport, as the company could profit by selling copper at a premium. However, the company's CEO has warned that tariffs could also have a negative impact on the company. "If global economic growth is hindered, it could impact copper prices," Kathleen Quirk, CEO of Freeport, said in an interview. "Ironically, if we try to build up the US copper industry, slower GDP growth and inflation could put significant pressure on copper mines here." Quirk claimed that the US copper industry is currently in a turbulent period. As many industries and applications, including automotive, consumer electronics, and residential construction, are highly dependent on copper, copper tariffs could impose high costs on various sectors of the US economy. Copper tariffs have both positive and negative implications for the company Under Trump's tariff threats, US copper prices have been pushed higher than those in other markets. Currently, copper prices on the Comex are about 9.3% higher than those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), providing traders and producers with greater incentive to continue shifting supplies to the US before potential copper tariffs take effect. In April this year, the premium for copper on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) relative to the LME even reached 13% at one point. At that time, Freeport claimed that such a level was equivalent to a financial benefit of approximately $800 million per year from its copper sales. Freeport owns seven open-pit mines and one smelter in the US, which means it produces about 70% of the refined copper in the country. Quirk stated, "We do benefit from copper tariffs because they raise the price of our copper in the US domestic market... but if there are hefty tariffs and a trade war, we will be concerned about global demand for copper." Quark stated that she maintains a "neutral" stance on copper tariff policies, believing that copper import tariffs have both advantages and disadvantages for her. She noted that Freeport also has copper production sites in Indonesia, Spain, Peru, and Chile, and that tariff-driven trade wars could harm market demand for copper. Compared to tariffs, Freeport has called on the Trump administration to adopt other incentives to promote copper mining in the US, such as the tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act—a benefit that US lithium and nickel miners are already eligible for. "The cost structure in the US is higher than globally," Quark said. "Therefore, if you want to protect this industry, you need to consider how to incentivize it."

According to the latest tracking by SMM, the planned production volume of cold-rolled commercial materials for June from 31 mainstream steel mills specializing in cold-rolled sheet and coil totaled 4.344 million mt, a decrease of 5,800 mt compared to the actual production volume of cold-rolled commercial materials in May, representing a decline of 0.13%. On a daily average basis, June has one fewer day than May. The planned daily average production volume of cold-rolled materials for June was 144,800 mt, up 3.20% from the actual daily average production volume in May.