[SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded and fluctuated near 7.2]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded and fluctuated near 7.2, with the zinc ingot import window remaining closed. Overseas, the transition between old and new US tariff policies triggered wild swings in the US dollar, market sentiment fluctuated repeatedly, and traders lowered expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, with LME zinc mainly fluctuating.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 91,030 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward at the start of the session to hit a low of 90,280 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward during the day with the price center rising to approach 92,530 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 92,280 yuan/mt, up 1.24%. Open interest reached 5,564 lots, an increase of 430 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 6,984 lots, showing an increase in positions by bulls. On the macro front, U.S.-Iran negotiations made positive progress, but differences remain between the two sides, and the market continues to monitor uncertainties regarding the negotiation process and tariff policies. Combined with support from the precious metals market, these factors provided a bullish influence on copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply continues to increase, with ample supplementary supply from imports; demand is currently in the post-Chinese New Year resumption cycle, as downstream enterprises gradually resume production and consumption slowly recovers. The SHFE copper 2604 contract settled at 103,920 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 92,280 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 104,276 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -356 between the SHFE copper 2603 contract and BC copper. The inverted spread persisted but narrowed compared to the previous day.

SMM Nickel February 27 News: Macro and Market News: (1) Indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran concluded. The Iranian foreign minister stated the negotiations made good progress, with differences remaining but nearing consensus in some areas. Technical talks will be held on March 2. (2) China's Ministry of Commerce responded regarding the upcoming sixth round of U.S.-China trade talks: China is willing to work with the U.S. to properly manage differences and expand practical cooperation through equal consultations. Spot Market: On February 27, SMM #1 refined nickel prices were 137,600-147,700 yuan/mt, averaging 142,650 yuan/mt, down 1,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel were quoted in the range of 7,500-8,200 yuan/mt, averaging 7,850 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous day. Spot premiums/discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel were quoted at -600-300 yuan/mt, showing a decline. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) opened lower and trended down, fluctuating at lows during the morning session, closing at 140,360 yuan/mt by the morning close, down 0.82%. Nickel prices saw a slight correction today, but the medium and long-term logic of tightening supply from the mine end remained unchanged, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract expected to fluctuate around 140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include the US February ISM Manufacturing PMI, US February ADP employment figures, and China's official February Manufacturing PMI; additionally, the US Fed will release the Beige Book. Meanwhile, overseas geopolitical tensions remain prominent, with uncertainties in US-Iran conflicts fueling strong market risk-off sentiment. On the LME lead front, overseas lead inventory surged by over 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year holiday. Although stocks declined post-holiday, the high inventory base continued to significantly suppress lead prices, preventing them from breaking above $2,000/mt. Recently, widespread power outages in the US due to winter storms boosted heating demand, driving natural gas prices higher. This, to some extent, increased smelting costs for lead ore and lead ingots, providing short-term support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,950-2,000/mt next week. For SHFE lead, post-holiday inventory buildup in the lead market was severe, with stocks rising simultaneously at smelters and social warehouses, becoming a major drag on prices. Notably, scrap battery prices rose steadily after the holiday, widening losses for secondary lead producers and prompting some smelters to delay resumption plans, which will ease future lead ingot inventory pressure. Meanwhile, as downstream enterprises resume operations, focus will be on lead consumption recovery digesting lead inventories. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is forecast to fluctuate between 16,650-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-17,500 yuan/mt. Next week, lead-acid battery enterprises are expected to largely resume production, and with pre-holiday lead ingot inventories gradually being consumed, rigid demand restocking is anticipated. On the supply side, secondary lead smelters delayed resumption and face significant losses, limiting spot discounts for secondary refined lead. For primary lead, supplies will re-enter the market after delivery next week, and with high smelter inventories, spot discounts may widen.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: SHFE Aluminum Fluctuates at Highs, Post-Holiday Consumption Recovery Remains Slow] Spot side, A00 aluminum price rebounded by 140 yuan/mt to 23,520 yuan/mt compared with the previous trading day, while SMM ADC12 price rose slightly by 50 yuan/mt to 23,800 yuan/mt. Boosted by the stronger futures, market sentiment improved slightly. However, secondary aluminum enterprises remained generally cautious about following the upward trend, with most maintaining stable quotations or raising prices by no more than 100 yuan/mt. Post-holiday downstream consumption recovery pace was relatively slow, with downstream users making just-in-time procurement, and some enterprises still focusing on digesting inventories. Overall market transaction atmosphere was sluggish. In the short term, ADC12 price is likely to continue moving sideways in the initial post-holiday period. For the medium term, the trend still requires close monitoring of the supply-demand matching situation as production resumptions are gradually implemented, as well as the impact of primary aluminum price movements on aluminum scrap costs.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. On the first day after the holiday resumption, due to the impact of overseas risk events during the long holiday—primarily the US's plan to impose new tariffs on approximately six industries (including large batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment) and the escalation of US-Iran tensions—overall sentiment fluctuated significantly, and ferrous futures also touched recent lows. Mid-week, with some steel mills in the Tangshan area receiving notifications for voluntary emission reductions during the Two Sessions, coupled with Shanghai's adjustment of housing purchase restrictions and rumors of favorable real estate policies during the Two Sessions, futures rebounded from lows, showing significant sector resonance effects. However, as the weekend approached, no new favorable policies emerged, and futures retreated once again.