Platinum prices remained in the doldrums today. The most-traded platinum contract, PT2606, on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed the morning session at 485.5 yuan/g, down 1.55. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at a discount of 5-7 yuan/g against PT2606, or at a discount of 3-5 yuan/g against the SGE sell-1 price. Spot discounts narrowed somewhat from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that suppliers reported normal trading activity today. In the morning, a small volume of spot cargo traded at a discount of 7 yuan/g against the Guangzhou Futures Exchange price, while some traders reported more quotations around a discount of 5 yuan/g, with high-priced deals difficult to conclude. Downstream enterprises negotiated transactions based on order conditions, and overall trading in the spot market was moderate.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. After copper prices jumped, downstream procurement sentiment pulled back, indicating limited acceptance of current price levels. From the market structure perspective, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some brands continuing to offload cargo, putting pressure on discounts. Downstream buyers mostly maintained a wait-and-see stance, with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand and buying on dips. It is worth noting that the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper narrowed somewhat from the previous period, indicating that the market trading structure has become more rational, with actual consumption demand becoming the dominant force at the current stage. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, spot prices against the 2604 contract are expected to maintain the current discount level tomorrow.

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market improved somewhat from yesterday. Suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm, but some suppliers’ sell-offs temporarily weighed on the market, causing spot premiums to decline in the second trading session. Coupled with the narrowing Contango price spread between futures contracts of different months, suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse weakened, and spot premiums remained under pressure. Demand side, as copper prices fell, downstream enterprises may have had some restocking demand, but the actual appeal of current copper prices remained limited. Supply side, social inventory was still at a high level, but actually circulating cargoes were relatively tight. Some warrants were already seen flowing out during the day, which may ease some pressure on spot supply. Meanwhile, the import window remained open, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China continued to rise. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, SHFE copper spot is expected to maintain the current discount pattern overall tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] As the delivery period approaches, spot discounts for SHFE copper are expected to continue narrowing steadily. From the perspective of market structure, the inter-month contango price spread between futures contracts has widened, significantly strengthening suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses. In particular, inventory in Jiangsu is mainly in the form of warrants, and suppliers tend to opt for delivery rather than spot sales, resulting in persistently tight availability of deliverable spot cargo. In addition, spot premiums quotes in Jiangsu are slightly higher than those in Shanghai. Against this backdrop, suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm intraday, and quotes in the second session were raised slightly, making procurement more difficult for some downstream enterprises. Looking ahead to tomorrow, under delivery-driven dynamics, spot premiums in Shanghai are expected to remain at current levels.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure. Although the spot discounts showed some recovery today, the overall market is still constrained by the continuous increase in supply. In the early session, some suppliers were more willing to hold prices firm, with high-quality copper and some parity copper quotes relatively strong, but actual transactions were sluggish. However, in the second trading period, some suppliers began to offload their stocks, with brands like Tiefeng quoting a discount of 300 yuan/mt, pulling down the overall price of parity copper, indicating that supply pressure remains the dominant factor. From a market structure perspective, the high contango spread between futures contracts continues to encourage suppliers to ship to delivery warehouses, which will continue to divert spot liquidity. At the same time, imported and domestically produced copper continue to arrive, with OLYDA and other sources already seen during the day, continuously replenishing the supply side. On the demand side, although resumption of work is progressing, the overall pace of recovery remains slow, coupled with high copper prices, making it difficult to provide effective support for the discounts. Overall, the continuous increase in supply is suppressing demand recovery, and the oversupply situation in the spot market remains unchanged.