On March 26, the 580,000 mt aluminum construction project of Wanji Aluminum Industry (Xinjiang) Co., Ltd. commenced. It is understood that the project adopts an EPC model integrating design, procurement, and construction, with a total investment of approximately 4.595 billion yuan, and is expected to be completed and commissioned in July 2027. Upon completion, the project will become a modern aluminum production site integrating green production, intelligent management and control, and full-chain supporting facilities, improving the entire industry chain from alumina and aluminum to deep aluminum processing.

This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China strengthened to 10,100-10,200 yuan/mt; stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan also rose, with prices at 9,800-10,100 yuan/mt. Raw material cost side, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,218.64 yuan/mt, while the cost of production using only high-grade NPI was 14,686.86 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices rose slightly, mainly driven by macro news, firm futures, and gains in finished product prices. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict was unlikely to end in the short term, while news related to Indonesia's export tax and windfall tax on nickel products continued to ferment. These two bullish factors jointly kept SS futures holding up well. At the same time, supported by higher guidance prices from stainless steel mills, spot stainless steel finished product prices also strengthened and moved higher, directly transmitting to the stainless steel scrap market and pushing its prices up slightly. Performance on the substitute raw material side diverged. Affected by stainless steel mills' continued efforts to push for lower prices, high-grade NPI generally remained stable this week, with no obvious change; high-carbon ferrochrome, however, was dragged down by a sharp buildup in chrome ore inventory, making its price rally difficult to sustain, and its overall support for stainless steel scrap was limited. Although stainless steel scrap still maintained a clear economic advantage over high-grade NPI, providing some support for its prices, the constraining factors were also prominent. Under the impact of the reverse invoicing policy, the shortage of tax invoices had not been alleviated, and current stainless steel scrap inventory remained high. These two factors jointly capped the upside room for stainless steel scrap prices, resulting in only a slight increase rather than a sustained upward trend. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market showed a mild upward pattern this week, characterized by "futures support, finished product-driven gains, and evident constraints." Although short-term supportive factors remained in place, upward momentum was insufficient due to the drag from tax invoice and inventory issues. If the tax invoice problem remains difficult to resolve effectively in the short term, stainless steel scrap prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a range.

SMM News, March 27: This week, quoted prices for scrap battery recycling diverged, at 9,250-9,450 yuan/mt. High-priced cargo collection squeezed traders' profits, while low-priced recycling saw limited volume growth; coupled with sluggish downstream consumption, relatively scarce retired resources, and end-users' reluctance to sell, this week's recycling volume was about half the normal level on a YoY basis. After Qingming Festival, more smelters were expected to resume production, supporting raw material demand, and attention should remain on lead prices as well as smelters' production, sales, and maintenance pace. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM News, March 27: Lead prices operated at low levels this week, and secondary lead smelters generally lowered their purchase prices for scrap batteries. Today’s average purchase prices were: waste e-bike battery at 9,775 yuan/mt, waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) at 9,875 yuan/mt, and waste automotive starter lead-acid battery (black shell) at 10,075 yuan/mt. Quotes in the recycling market diverged, with some traders raising prices to 9,450 yuan/mt to attract cargoes, squeezing profits, while others lowered prices to 9,250 yuan/mt, with recycling volume constrained. Affected by sluggish downstream consumption, relatively low retirements, weaker prices, and end-users holding back cargoes, recycling volume this week was half the normal level. After the Qingming Festival, the pace of smelter resumptions is expected to gradually accelerate, and demand for raw material procurement is likely to be released. In addition, with raw material inventories at some smelters still at low levels, this is expected to provide some support for scrap battery prices. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to lead price trends and developments in smelter production and maintenance. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

Recent volatility in the Indonesian commodities sector has been driven by mixed signals regarding new fiscal policies. Market participants are currently evaluating the implications of two distinct regulatory mechanisms: a broader windfall tax on bulk commodities like coal, nickel, and a targeted export duty. The conflation of these two policies has generated significant market uncertainty, culminating in a sharp spike in global nickel prices this week. To understand the current market anxiety, which culminated in a sharp spike in global nickel prices this week, it is essential to unpack the timeline of these policy discussions, differentiate the fiscal mechanisms at play, and assess the likelihood of their implementation. Background: From Broad Windfall Deliberations to Targeted Export Tariffs The narrative surrounding new commodity taxes in Indonesia did not emerge overnight; rather, it has evolved through distinct phases of policy signaling. The current policy discourse has evolved in phases. Initial discussions, highlighted by statements from Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto on Mar 13, 2026, focused on the potential implementation of a windfall tax. This broader fiscal measure was aimed at capturing excess margins from exporters of coal, palm oil, and base metals, such as nickel, gold, and copper during periods of elevated global prices, functioning primarily as a macroeconomic revenue-generation tool. However, the conversation shifted dramatically on March 25, 2026. According to Bloomberg, news broke that Indonesia’s President had officially approved an export tax specifically targeting coal and nickel. This headline acted as an immediate catalyst, sending LME and SHFE nickel prices spiking. The confusion currently gripping the market stems from the conflation of these two distinct policy trajectories: the older, revenue-focused windfall tax concept championed by economic ministers, and the newly approved, strategically focused nickel export tax aimed at forcing further downstream industrialization. Analysis & Understanding: The Precedent of the "Windfall Tax" To accurately gauge the impact of these rumors, it is critical to understand that the concept of a "windfall tax" is not entirely unprecedented in Indonesia's regulatory framework, particularly for bulk commodities. There has actually been a windfall tax structure in place previously, though often masked under the nomenclature of progressive royalties and non-tax state revenues (PNBP). For the coal sector, the government already utilizes a tiered royalty system pegged to the Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA) benchmark. As coal prices escalate into higher brackets, the royalty percentage automatically increases, effectively acting as a windfall capture mechanism. Similarly before, the nickel sector utilizes the Domestic Benchmark Price (HPM) and associated royalty structures to adjust to global price rallies. It is crucial to note that the government has previously experimented with specific windfall profit provisions for downstream products, though the regulatory stance has recently hardened. For instance, under Government Regulation (GR) No. 26/2022, a unique windfall profit incentive was applied to nickel matte: when prices exceeded $21,000 per ton, the royalty rate was actually reduced from the standard 2% to 1%. (Old Version) However, this accommodating policy was explicitly abolished under the recent GR No. 19/2025. The removal of this incentive underscores a definitive shift toward more aggressive state revenue capture. Consequently, the recent "windfall tax" rumors primarily concern further tightening these existing brackets or introducing a supplementary surcharge on operating margins above a specific baseline. (New Version) Conversely, the newly approved nickel export tax serves a different primary function. Therefore, it is completely different than the concept of windfall tax. Rather than merely earning from peak profits, an export duty on semi-processed nickel (like NPI, MHP, FeNi, and Nickel Matte) is a structural tool designed to penalize the export of lower-value products. It is the natural continuation of Indonesia’s downstreaming ( hilirisasi ) agenda, intended to force producers to build stainless steel and EV battery precursor plants domestically in Indonesia, rather than shipping intermediate goods to other countries. While a windfall tax fluctuates with market prices, an export tax acts as a permanent structural cost added to the global supply chain. Conclusion: Imminent Implementation Amidst Ongoing Deliberations Despite definitive headlines regarding executive approval and the targeted April 1, 2026 implementation date, the exact implementation details are currently under review by the relevant ministries. Currently, specific details, including exactly how the proposed 5%, 8%, and 11% tiers might translate from coal to specific nickel material classifications (e.g., NPI, MHP, and high-grade matte), must be urgently finalized ahead of the April deadline. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the Ministry of Finance, and the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime and Investment Affairs are working to balance state revenue optimization with the need to maintain the global cost-competitiveness of domestic smelters. This deliberative phase should not be interpreted as a policy reversal. According to SMM's understanding and industry checks, the implementation of these fiscal measures is highly probable. While the exact rollout of tariffs may be structured to mitigate immediate operational shocks to the domestic smelting sector, the fundamental policy direction indicates that the era of tariff-free exports for intermediate nickel products might decisively coming to an end.

Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.