[SMM Analysis: Stripping Away Macro Noise: Analysis of the Substantive Impact of Peru's Emergency Decree on Tin Supply]

Although the silver market is expected to see a sixth consecutive year of annual supply deficit, one market strategist believes this may not be enough to push silver prices back to their January all-time highs. In his latest report on silver, Mike McGlone, senior market strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, reiterated his relatively mediocre expectations for the precious metal. He stated that silver prices could "meander for years" between $50 and $100. McGlone made the above comments as silver was struggling to sustain a break above initial resistance at $80. While McGlone did not rule out the possibility of silver retesting the $120 high set in January, he noted that rising prices would lead to a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics. He stated: "A key takeaway is that the supply deficit will change due to this parabolic price adjustment, and the market could transition into a phase of high-price-driven demand destruction. " McGlone noted that silver's current trajectory resembles parabolic fluctuations seen in other periods. He explained that silver's rally, which began in mid-2025, reached a premium of 2.6 times its 10-year moving average at its peak, strikingly similar to the last parabolic move in 2011. McGlone stated: "We see parallels. Silver was around $79 on April 15, and silver appears set for a prolonged stagnation between $50 and $100. Given the risk of mean reversion, the probability of silver pulling back toward its 10-year moving average near $33 is greater than the probability of it staying above $100. " Meanwhile, McGlone reminded investors that silver's 180-day volatility is more than five times that of the S&P 500. This reading reached its highest level since 1980, when silver topped just below $50 — a high that was matched in 2011 and not surpassed until 2025. Looking ahead, McGlone believes that if the trend reverses, silver could retrace to $50. McGlone's bearish expectations come as the market digests the Silver Institute's annual report, which forecasts this year's annual silver deficit at 46.3 million ounces. However, as silver consumption in PV solar cell panels is expected to decline by 19%, industrial demand this year is expected to fall by 3% . Metals Focus, the research firm responsible for the survey, expects investment demand to be the biggest driver of the silver market this year. The survey showed that, driven by 30 mt of physical inflows into silver exchange-traded products (ETPs), silver investment demand is expected to grow by 18% this year.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week was still the weakening of cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed to levy transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump released conciliatory remarks that he was "willing to end military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed." Market expectations for tightening crude oil supply weakened, the energy sector declined and dragged down the coal sector, and the cost logic weakened. During the week, inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at low levels compared to the same period in previous years, and fundamentals provided limited impetus for futures. Spot market side, market enthusiasm for purchasing was lukewarm, with restocking mainly at low prices. Spot prices remained relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened...

As production order fully resumed after the Chinese New Year, the sodium-ion battery industry chain saw a strong recovery in March. Production across the four major segments—cathode, anode, electrolyte, and battery cell—posted substantial growth both YoY and MoM, with industry prosperity rebounding markedly.

The gold price has undergone a sharp correction since its January high, unsettling many investors. The price decline of more than $1,000 per ounce appears at first glance to represent a break in the previous uptrend. However, according to analysts at WisdomTree, this movement reflects less a fundamental change in the macroeconomic situation than a combination of position adjustments, liquidity needs, and short-term market pressure.

[SMM Titanium Weekly Review: Cost-Driven Titanium Dioxide Price Hikes Took Effect, Market Adjustments Released Upward Signals] This week, the titanium industry chain showed a divergent trend. The titanium concentrate market remained in the doldrums, with imported ore prices falling लगातार under pressure from downstream efforts to push for lower prices and accumulating port inventory. Titanium dioxide, meanwhile, saw the second round of collective price adjustments in mid-month under persistently high sulphuric acid costs. Mainstream enterprises in China raised domestic prices by 500 yuan/mt and export prices by $100/mt, pushing the quoted center up to 14,000-14,500 yuan/mt, though follow-up from domestic demand remained mediocre and foreign trade orders showed clear divergence. The titanium slag market stayed in the doldrums, with prices under pressure amid weak costs and demand. In the titanium sponge market, leading enterprises took the lead in raising prices, with domestic prices up 2,000 yuan/mt and international prices up $300/mt. Supported by restocking demand for titanium materials and low inventory, the market showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, but downstream processing segments still maintained a wait-and-see stance, and titanium ingot and titanium plate/strip prices only edged up slightly. Overall, cost support and structural demand divergence coexisted, and future price trends still depended on substantive improvement on the supply and demand side.