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Last week, tin prices fell sharply, mainly due to the implementation of the US tariff hike policy on China, which intensified market concerns over escalating trade frictions and economic recession, coupled with rising expectations of the resumption of production at the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a surge in market risk aversion sentiment. Supply side, refined tin production in March was 15,080 mt, up 10.4% MoM but down 3.1% YoY. Affected by tight raw material supply and low TC, production in April is expected to be 15,385 mt, down 8.3% MoM and 7.0% YoY. The latest customs data showed that cumulative tin ore imports from January to February were 18,587 mt, down 50.15% YoY. Cumulative tin ingot imports in the same period were 4,203 mt, down 16.61% YoY. Demand side, domestic consumer electronics demand data weakened, and the US tariff policy may affect China's home appliance and consumer electronics exports. Subsequent observation is needed on the strength of domestic stimulus policies. Inventory side, domestic inventories remained at high levels overall, but last week's sharp decline in tin prices triggered restocking demand in the spot market, leading to a reduction in refined tin inventories. In summary, tin demand is expected to weaken marginally, but supply remains at low levels, and SHFE tin prices are expected to fluctuate at highs. Today, the price range for the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to be 250,000-270,000 yuan/mt, while the LME tin 3M contract is expected to range from $29,000-33,000/mt. (Source: Minmetals Futures)

SMM Tin Midday Review: US Tariff Policy "Selectively Suspended," SHFE Tin Prices Slightly Rebounded. As of midday today (11:30), the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2505) closed at 255,610 yuan/mt, down 1.47% from the previous settlement price, with an intraday fluctuation of 8.91%. The price hit a low of 235,720 yuan/mt, marking a two-month low. The opening price in the morning session was 245,000 yuan/mt, briefly surging to 258,300 yuan/mt driven by the overnight rebound in LME tin prices, then fluctuated rangebound, with market sentiment remaining fragile. On the spot market, spot premiums widened, reflecting some downstream restocking after the futures market's oversold condition.

The inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) on April 9 showed that tin inventories decreased by 215 mt or 6.26%, to 3,220 mt. The Port Klang warehouse experienced the largest change, with a reduction of 215 mt. The following shows the distribution changes of LME tin inventories in major global warehouses: (unit: mt)

The inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) on April 4 showed that tin inventories decreased by 45 mt or 1.48%, to 2,990 mt. The entire reduction came from the Port Klang warehouse. The following shows the distribution changes of LME tin inventories in major global warehouses: (unit: mt)

SMM Tin Futures Review: Short-Term Speculative Funds Drive SHFE Tin Surge Over 4%, Market Remains Cautious of "False Breakout" Risk. On April 2, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) continued its strong upward trend, surging over 4% during the session, reaching a high of 299,990 yuan/mt, approaching the 300,000 threshold and setting a new yearly high. In the afternoon, the price pulled back slightly, eventually closing at 297,590 yuan/mt, with a daily increase of 3.89%. During the night session, SHFE tin prices fluctuated at high levels, closing at 289,000 yuan/mt, with market activity remaining high and open interest surpassing 1 million contracts...