The ongoing delay by the White House on potential refined copper import tariffs under President Donald Trump is accelerating structural dislocations across the global physical copper market. Although the statutory timeline for U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to deliver a recommendation has lapsed without a public ruling, the regulatory ambiguity itself has become a primary driver of global trade dynamics. By keeping the tariff threat active, the U.S. has sustained an elevated delivery premium that continues to incentivize aggressive physical inflows into American ports. Over the past 18 months, this mechanism has allowed the country to build a substantial domestic stockpile of a critical metal essential to both green energy transition and advanced technology sectors. However, this deliberate accumulation has come at the direct expense of liquidity in non-U.S. markets. Physical metal is being systematically diverted away from international hubs, driving rapid inventory drawdowns across both London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses. As regional pricing premiums widen and trade flows skew disproportionately toward the United States, prolonged tariff uncertainty risks transforming temporary arbitrage plays into a permanent, structural fracture in the global copper market.

South Africa’s International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) has proposed expanding the country’s automotive incentive framework to include minerals used in electric-vehicle battery manufacturing, supporting deeper localisation of the domestic automotive and battery-material supply chains. Under the proposal, the existing list of eligible standard materials including aluminium, steel and platinum-group metals would be expanded to cover lithium, graphite, cobalt, copper, iron and rare earths. Eligible materials would need to originate from member states of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) or Southern African Development Community (SADC). The proposed framework would recognise 50% of the value of qualifying EV battery materials as local content, potentially improving producers’ eligibility for automotive-sector incentives. The policy aligns with the South African Automotive Master Plan 2035, which aims to increase vehicle production, local content and investment as the industry transitions toward electric mobility. Stakeholders were given four weeks from the notice date to submit comments, meaning the final scope and implementation schedule remain subject to consultation. SMM comments: The proposal represents a demand-side approach to developing Africa’s battery supply chain, contrasting with Zimbabwe’s supply side policy of restricting concentrate exports to force domestic processing. If implemented, South Africa could emerge as a regional battery material processing or manufacturing hub sourcing feedstock from neighbouring SADC producers, including Zimbabwe and Namibia. However, the near-term impact on regional lithium trade flows is likely to be limited. Major Zimbabwean lithium assets including Arcadia, Bikita and Sabi Star are controlled by Chinese companies with established China-linked processing and offtake arrangements. It also remains unclear whether spodumene concentrate would qualify directly as an eligible battery material or whether further conversion into lithium sulphate, carbonate or hydroxide would be required. The final rules should therefore be monitored alongside Zimbabwe’s planned January 2027 lithium concentrate export deadline, as the two policies could influence future investment and trade flows within Southern Africa.

Selkirk Copper announced an updated Mineral Resource Estimate for its Minto project in Canada's Yukon, reporting an 182% increase in measured and indicated contained copper and a 184% increase in measured and indicated contained gold compared with the previous estimate. The updated resource also reflects higher confidence through resource conversion and supports the company's ongoing advancement toward a planned feasibility study and potential mine restart.

SMM July 30: PV Aluminum Extrusion: This week, according to feedback from PV frame enterprises in the survey sample, industry operating rates remained stable overall. According to SMM, China’s module scheduled production was ~38.5 GW in July, and is expected to edge up MoM to 39.3 GW in August. Underpinned by stable-to-rising demand from downstream module production schedules, PV frame enterprises’ operating rates are expected to hold steady in the near term, with leading PV frame enterprises with long-term contract advantages maintaining high operating rates. Raw Material Prices: During the period (July 27–30, 2026), the SMM A00 weekly average price was 23,357.5 yuan/mt, up 0.8% from the previous week’s average. Overall, the continuous rise in the proportion of liquid aluminum in China, the persistent geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, combined with sustained destocking of domestic aluminum ingots, jointly supported aluminum prices, visibly enhancing near-term market confidence. However, the continuous additions of forward aluminum capacity outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China, together with ongoing fluctuations in expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical situation, still pose certain pressure on aluminum price upside. In the near term, aluminum prices maintained a consolidation pattern on a strong note. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to move in a range of 23,000–24,150 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum in a range of $3,100–3,250/mt.

Impala Platinum Holdings (Implats) has temporarily suspended mining activities at its flagship Rustenburg complex in South Africa following six worker fatalities over the past year and a rise in serious underground safety incidents. The company initiated a comprehensive safety reset from 24–28 July to strengthen operational controls and prevent further incidents. Rustenburg is one of the world’s largest platinum-group metals (PGM) mining complexes and Implats’ largest operation, employing approximately 51,500 workers. The mine accounts for nearly half of Implats’ total PGM production and is expected to produce around 1.67–1.76 million six-element PGM ounces in the 2026 financial year. The temporary shutdown is expected to impact approximately eight days of production, with the company stating that the final effect on output will be assessed after operations resume. Existing stockpiles are expected to help mitigate any short-term supply impact. The short-term impact on global platinum supply is expected to remain limited due to the brief duration of the shutdown and available inventories. However, renewed safety concerns at major South African operations may provide additional support to platinum prices, highlighting potential supply-side risks facing the world’s leading region for PGM production.

Rajasthan has become the first Indian state to issue an exploration licence for a rare earth elements (REE) block under the country's new exploration licensing framework for critical minerals. The licence covers a block spanning the Balotra and Jodhpur districts, where geological surveys have identified potential REE resources. The move marks a milestone in India's efforts to accelerate domestic critical mineral exploration, strengthen supply chain security and reduce reliance on imported rare earth materials.