The US Fed raised its GDP growth expectations across the board while also raising its core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next year. The US Fed’s FOMC economic projections showed that the median GDP growth expectations for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 were 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively (vs. 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% expected last December). The median core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 were 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0%, respectively (vs. 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0% expected last December).

On Thursday (June 5), spot silver prices surged rapidly after entering the European session, reaching a high of $35.82 per ounce, a level last seen in February 2012. Monthly chart of spot silver prices Specific market data showed that spot silver began to accelerate its upward climb around 15:00 Beijing time, rising from $34.44 to $35.82 within two and a half hours, with an intraday gain exceeding 3%. Year-to-date, silver prices have surged by over 23%. One-minute chart of spot silver prices In comparison, gold's gains were relatively mild. Spot gold rebounded by approximately 20% in the European session, currently trading at $3,385.74 per ounce, with an intraday gain of around 0.34%. Analysts believe that amidst growing global economic and political uncertainties, precious metal prices, including silver, are being supported by safe-haven funds. The previous day, the US raised tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivative products from 25% to 50%. The market is concerned that the US may adopt similar trade protection measures on metals such as silver, thereby boosting safe-haven and substitute demand for silver. Goldman Sachs futures trader Robert Quinn stated that the news of steel and aluminum tariffs triggered significant long position building in the silver futures market. Analysts say that the trade war initiated by Trump has sparked concerns about a recession in the US and global economies, and due to the unpredictability of tariff policies announced by Washington, precious metals such as gold and silver have been regarded as the most favored safe-haven assets. Two days ago, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecast for the US economic growth rate this year from 2.2% to 1.6%. The OECD report pointed out that even with some tariff measures suspended, the current tariff levels in the US are the highest since World War II. The OECD report also forecasts global GDP growth of 2.9% for this year and next. Previous forecasts were 3.1% for this year and 3% for next year. The report mentioned that if factors such as rising trade barriers persist, growth prospects will be significantly negatively impacted. Yesterday, data released by ADP showed that private sector employment in the US increased by only 37,000 in May, the lowest level since April 2023. After the data was released, Trump quickly posted urging Fed Chairman Powell to "cut interest rates now." Later that day, the US May Services PMI released by ISM unexpectedly fell below the 50 mark to 49.9, the first time in nearly a year. The report also presented typical "stagflation" characteristics: business activity and new orders both plummeted, while the prices paid index surged to a 30-month high. Affected by unfavorable data, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut pushed the US dollar index below the 99 mark. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said, "Gold, and especially silver, have broken through key technical barriers, with the most immediate catalyst being the sharp decline in the US dollar." Hansen added that, at a deeper level, the resurgence of geopolitical risks and the rekindling of trade war concerns are also fueling the bullish momentum across the precious metals market. Earlier this week, Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," posted on social media, "As I predicted in my 2013 book 'Rich Dad's Prophecy,' the biggest crisis in history is coming." "The best deal now is silver. By 2025, the price of silver could triple," Kiyosaki specifically mentioned. "Tomorrow, I'm going to my local gold and silver dealer to exchange 'fake money' for real silver."

On May 28 (Wednesday), Chile's National Copper Commission (Cochilco) raised its average copper price forecasts for this year and next, citing improved global prospects following a temporary tariff agreement between China and the US. The commission increased its average copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $4.30 per pound, up from the previous estimate of $4.25 per pound in its February report. At a press conference, Cochilco's leadership expressed cautious optimism about the copper price outlook, while acknowledging that the global supply situation was tighter than expected and that demand fundamentals were strong. Cochilco stated that the agreement reached between the US and China earlier this month to reduce hefty tariffs for at least 90 days "significantly reduced trade barriers and eased tensions that had affected confidence and global trade dynamics." Cochilco also believes that long-term trends such as the energy transition, power grid expansion, EVs, and ESS will continue to support copper prices. In Q1, production increased at the world's largest copper producers, Codelco and Antofagasta Minerals. Cochilco reported that state-owned Codelco's production grew by 5.2% in April. Despite this, the increase in domestic production did not offset the global decline. Cochilco now expects global supply growth this year to be significantly lower than previously forecasted, at 1.3%, compared to the previous estimate of 4.7% growth. Victor Garay, Cochilco's Mining Market Coordinator, stated that in a market that is effectively balanced, any supply disruptions would directly impact prices. Additionally, Cochilco forecasts that Chile's copper production will increase by 3% this year and continue to rise by 3% in 2026, with an expected output of 5.84 million mt by then. The production guidance is lower than Cochilco's February forecasts, which projected growth rates of 4.6% for 2025 and 3.6% for 2026. Globally, Cochilco forecasts a copper supply deficit of 109,000 mt this year and a slight surplus of 19,000 mt in 2026, with demand expected to grow by 2.3% and 2.8% this year and next, respectively.

On May 27, amid the doldrums of the broader market, the share price of Hunan Gold also experienced a decline. As of 13:24 on the 27th, Hunan Gold fell by 1.54%, closing at 23.04 yuan per share. When asked, "What are the planned production volumes for the company's self-produced gold, antimony products, and tungsten products in 2025?", Hunan Gold stated on the investor interaction platform on May 27 that, the company plans to produce 72,475 kg of gold, 39,537 mt of antimony, and 1,100 standard mt of tungsten products in 2025. In 2024, the prices of antimony and gold saw significant increases, substantially boosting the profits of many related enterprises. 1# Antimony Ingot saw a 70.73% increase in 2024. 》Click to view SMM antimony metal spot prices 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot prices In 2024, antimony prices generally surged. Although prices slightly corrected since mid-October 2024, they remained high, resulting in a notable increase for the entire year. From the historical price trend of SMM 1# antimony ingot: the average price of SMM 1# antimony ingot was 82,000 yuan/mt on December 29, 2023, and 140,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024, marking an increase of 58,000 yuan/mt over the year, with a 70.73% increase in 2024. In 2025, antimony prices continued the upward trend of 2024. On May 27, the latest quote for SMM 1# antimony ingot was 221,500 yuan/mt, a 58.21% increase compared to the average price of 140,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024. The year-to-date high of 238,000 yuan/mt represents a 70% increase compared to the average price of 140,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024. After maintaining a firm price at 238,000 yuan/mt for over 20 days, the average price of antimony recently experienced some downward pressure. Although the fundamental supply and demand dynamics in the antimony market have not changed significantly, the substantial suspension of imported ore entering the domestic market has led to a severe shortage of domestic antimony raw materials. Additionally, the overall inventory of antimony products among domestic manufacturers is at historically low levels, prompting manufacturers to maintain stable pricing. In the domestic antimony end-use market, orders for both flame retardants and PV-related antimony products have remained basically stable. Although there has been no recent improvement in orders from the end-use sector, they have not deteriorated either, with a generally good pace of just-in-time procurement. However, due to the recent interplay of bullish and bearish market news, the sentiment in the retail investment market has become chaotic, leading to the entry of some low-priced supplies into the market and causing antimony prices to decline since May 15. Gold prices maintain an overall upward trend, with COMEX gold up nearly 27% year-to-date Following a 13.45% increase in 2023, COMEX gold surged by 27.39% in 2024. Since the beginning of this year, it has repeatedly hit record highs, reaching a peak of $3,509.9 per ounce. With the temporary suspension of US-EU tariff disputes and a rebound in market risk appetite, gold prices experienced a slight correction. However, recent fluctuations in US trade policies and market concerns about the US fiscal outlook have limited the downside room for gold prices. As of 14:33 on May 27, COMEX gold fell by 1.22%, closing at $3,353.2 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 26.97% in 2025. Regarding the outlook for gold prices, multiple institutions have the following views: Jinyuan Futures stated that despite the temporary easing of the US-EU trade war, there is still significant uncertainty in subsequent trade negotiations. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are frequent. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations, and it is expected that gold prices will maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term. Citi has raised its 0-3 month target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce, and expects gold prices to consolidate between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce. For gold prices at the end of this year and next year, Ningxia Ruiyin Lead Resource Recycling Co., Ltd. maintains a forecast of $3,500 per ounce, with the peak possibly reaching $3,600 per ounce by mid-2026. This is due to considerations of downside risks to economic growth, and the possibility that the US Fed may continue to ease monetary policy. A report previously released by the World Gold Council showed that global gold prices hit record highs 20 times in Q1. Affected by this, the total global gold jewelry consumption decreased by 21% YoY, reaching its lowest point since 2020. However, there was a significant increase in gold investment demand. In Q1, the global gold investment demand was 551.9 mt, a substantial increase of 170% YoY. This indicates that against the backdrop of gold prices repeatedly reaching new highs, global gold jewelry demand has declined, but gold as an investment product is more favored.

As late May approaches and the peak summer driving season in North America draws near, gasoline prices in the US and Canada typically begin to stabilize. However, this year, with increased uncertainty brought about by US President Trump, analysts warn that gasoline prices may experience unexpected volatility. Roger McKnight, chief oil analyst at En-Pro International, stated that the "Trump factor" could disrupt long-term expectations for gasoline price trends this year. "There's another factor in the equation now, called the 'Trump factor', which throws any logical mathematical explanation out the window. Because he will make the market entirely dependent on what he says, what we think he might say, or what he might never say," he said. McKnight noted that typically, in January and February each year, refineries shut down for maintenance, which usually drives up gasoline prices until they peak around mid-April, followed by a gradual stabilization in May. However, President Trump's remarks on issues such as tariffs and geopolitics could unexpectedly push the market into significant volatility—either upwards or downwards. Analysts added that current gasoline prices in North America are not high, resulting in refinery operating rates in the region being only around 90%, which is relatively low compared to the same period in previous years. "The driving season is approaching, but refining margins are so low that refiners are saying, 'To hell with it, we'll have to stop... if we can't make big money from what we're doing,'" "This could push gasoline prices higher throughout the summer, but I don't think anything drastic will happen unless there's geopolitical chaos that we can never get out of." Recently, international crude oil prices have been weak. In recent weeks, US WTI crude oil prices have hovered around $60 per barrel, about $10 lower than six months ago. A few days ago, the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted that retail prices for regular gasoline in the US will decline this year and next. The EIA predicts that the average retail price for regular gasoline in the US will be $3.09 per gallon in 2025 and $3.07 per gallon in 2026. In comparison, according to EIA data, the average retail price for regular gasoline in the US was $3.31 per gallon in 2024.

SMM May 20 News: Metal Market: Overnight, most domestic base metals declined, with SHFE tin rising by 0.15%, SHFE copper by 0.54%, SHFE nickel falling by 0.31%, SHFE lead by 0.71%, SHFE aluminum by 0.62%, and SHFE zinc by 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose by 1.23%. Overnight, the ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore declining by 0.14%, stainless steel by 1.16%, rebar by 0.62%, and HRC by 0.37%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell by 0.53%, and coke by 0.49%. Overnight, LME base metals generally declined, with LME copper rising by 0.73%, LME aluminum by 1.83%, LME lead by 1.78%, LME zinc by 0.71%, LME tin by 0.44%, and LME nickel by 0.95%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose by 1.41%, and COMEX silver by 0.44%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose by 0.97%, and SHFE silver by 0.25%. Data released by the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that, for the week ending May 16, global physical gold ETFs saw outflows of $2.965 billion, with open interest at 3,525.6 mt, a decrease of 30 mt or 0.8%. Renowned investment bank Goldman Sachs remains optimistic that gold prices will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs data indicates that global central banks had strong demand for gold in March this year. Since the beginning of the year, global central banks' average monthly demand for gold has been 94 mt, far exceeding the previously estimated 80 mt. As of 8:13 on May 20, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [MIIT: Maintain Steady Growth in Manufacturing, Stabilize and Expand Employment Capacity] Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group, Minister, and Leader of the Employment Promotion Working Group of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), presided over a meeting of the Employment Promotion Working Group. The meeting emphasized the need to strengthen coordination, ensure the meticulous implementation of various tasks, form a joint effort, and strive for tangible results. Maintain steady growth in manufacturing, stabilize and expand employment capacity. Implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in key industries, and implement the policies of "implementation of major national strategies and the development of security capabilities in key areas" and "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins". Strengthen technological transformation of enterprises in key industries, and do a good job in job creation and vocational ability enhancement and transformation during digital transformation. Implement actions to cultivate emerging industries and create new momentum, fostering new growth points such as artificial intelligence and low-altitude industries. Cultivate and expand high-quality enterprises to enhance their employment absorption capacity. [SAFE: Foreign Investors' Willingness to Allocate RMB Assets Continues to Improve, Foreign Investment in Domestic Stocks Turned Net Buying in Late April] Li Bin, Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and spokesperson, stated that in April, cross-border capital inflows from non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, amounted to $17.3 billion. From the perspective of major channels, firstly, China's foreign trade has demonstrated certain resilience, with a net inflow of cross-border funds under goods trade amounting to $64.9 billion, maintaining a relatively high level. Secondly, foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets has continued to improve. In April, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic bonds by $10.9 billion, reaching a relatively high level. In late April, foreign investment in domestic stocks turned to net purchases. Thirdly, the main outflow channels have remained stable and orderly. In April, the net outflow of funds from service trade was basically flat MoM. The seasonal repatriation of profits by foreign-invested enterprises increased but remained lower than the same period last year. Inbound and outbound foreign direct investment was basically stable, and cross-border funds from borrowing and lending among affiliated enterprises shifted from net outflow to basically balanced. [China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank Cut Deposit Rates, with 1-Year Fixed Deposit Rate Falling Below 1%] China Construction Bank lowered its RMB deposit rates on May 20th. The demand deposit rate was reduced by 5 basis points to 0.05%. The rates for three-month, six-month, one-year, and two-year fixed deposits with lump-sum deposit and withdrawal were all lowered by 15 basis points to 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05%, respectively. The rates for three-year and five-year fixed deposits were lowered by 25 basis points to 1.25% and 1.3%, respectively. The rates for three types of fixed deposits with staggered deposit and withdrawal (lump-sum deposit and staggered withdrawal, staggered deposit and lump-sum withdrawal, and lump-sum deposit with interest withdrawal) were all lowered by 15 basis points. The 7-day call deposit rate was lowered by 15 basis points to 0.3%. China Merchants Bank also lowered its RMB deposit rates. The demand deposit rate was reduced by 5 basis points to 0.05%. The rates for three-month, six-month, one-year, and two-year fixed deposits with lump-sum deposit and withdrawal were all lowered by 15 basis points to 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05%, respectively. The rates for three-year and five-year fixed deposits were lowered by 25 basis points to 1.25% and 1.3%, respectively. The rates for three types of fixed deposits with staggered deposit and withdrawal were all lowered by 15 basis points. The 7-day call deposit rate was lowered by 15 basis points to 0.3%. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell by 0.59% to close at 100.36. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1", citing the US government's outstanding debt of $36 trillion and the heavy interest burden. Pressured by the downgrade of the US government's credit rating late last Friday, the US dollar generally fell on Monday, with its exchange rates against safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and euro hitting new lows in more than a week. Trade tensions also weighed on the US dollar. Other Currencies: The European Commission stated that due to the US trade war and uncertainties, economic growth in the eurozone will slow down this year and next. The eurozone's GDP growth rate is expected to be only 0.9% this year, lower than the 1.3% projected in November last year. The projected growth rate for 2026 is 1.4%, still below the previously expected 1.6%. The downgraded growth outlook is mainly due to weak global trade and rising uncertainties in trade policies. The report assumes that the US will maintain tariffs on EU goods, including a 25% tariff on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. The economic outlook faces downside risks, as further fragmentation in global trade could curb GDP growth and trigger inflationary pressures. If trade tensions between the EU and the US ease or if trade expansion between Europe and other countries accelerates, economic growth may rebound. The eurozone's unemployment rate is expected to continue declining this year and next, reaching 6.1% by 2026. Consumer inflation is projected to fall from 2.4% last year to 2.1% and 1.7% this year and next, respectively. (Huitong Finance) In April, the eurozone's CPI rose 2.2% YoY, in line with expectations; it rose 0.6% MoM, also in line with expectations. France (0.9%), Cyprus (1.4%), and Denmark (1.5%) had the lowest annual growth rates. Romania (4.9%), Estonia (4.4%), and Hungary (4.2%) had the highest annual growth rates. Compared to March 2025, annual inflation rates fell in 13 member states, remained stable in 3, and rose in 11. In April 2025, services contributed the most to the eurozone's annual inflation rate (+1.80 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol, and tobacco (+0.57pp), non-energy industrial goods (+0.15pp), and energy (-0.35pp). (Caijing) Macro: Today, data including China's one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for May, China's five-year LPR for May, China's annual rate of total electricity consumption for April, Australia's cash rate for May, Canada's unadjusted annual CPI rate for April, Canada's central bank's core monthly CPI rate for April, and the preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index for May will be released. Additionally, notable events include the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcing its interest rate decision, RBA Governor Michele Bullock holding a monetary policy press conference, and the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, which will run through May 22. Crude Oil: Both oil futures rose slightly, with US crude up 0.29% and Brent crude up 0.11%. This was due to market concerns about supply prospects offsetting the impact of Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. A preliminary survey on Monday indicated that US crude oil and refined product inventories likely fell last week. Before the weekly inventory data was released, the average forecast of five surveyed institutions was that US crude oil inventories were expected to fall by about 1.4 million barrels in the week ending May 16. The weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be released at 4:30 on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. (Webstock Inc.)