Pakistan's energy transition is being drastically mismeasured due to unrecorded distributed solar deployments, reports think tank Renewables First. While official data shows only 6.8 GW of net-metering, estimates suggest the distributed market exceeded 24 GW by mid-2025. With total module imports now reaching 51.5 GW, this consumer-led 'quiet reorientation' could generate 1,730 TWh and save the country $180 billion in fossil fuel imports over the modules' lifetime, urging an immediate update to official energy accounting.

Ouyang Minggao pointed out that large-scale mass production of all-solid-state batteries will still require 3–5 years, with test vehicles expected to appear by the end of 2026. Sulphide electrolyte has fallen from 20 million/mt to the million-level range. However, he stressed that the technical difficulty is extremely high and advised consumers that they “need not wait,” as LFP batteries remain the “ballast stone” at present.

On Tuesday this week, the two-day annual central bank conference, hosted by the Bank of Japan and its affiliated think tank, commenced at the Bank of Japan's headquarters in Tokyo. Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in the US, stated at the conference that, in the face of inflation risks stemming from Trump's tariff policies, there are differing views within the US Fed on how interest rates should change. Kashkari said he personally prefers to temporarily maintain stable interest rates until the impact of tariff hikes on inflation becomes clearer. He also warned against overlooking the impact of Trump's tariffs on global supply price shocks. A debate is underway within the US Fed. Kashkari noted that the global economic shocks from Trump's across-the-board tariff impositions, along with the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, are compelling central banks worldwide to seriously consider whether they should prioritize combating inflation or supporting economic activity. He stated that a "healthy debate" is currently taking place within the US Fed : some Fed officials are calling for the impact of tariffs to be viewed as a temporary inflationary shock, and thus, priority should be given to supporting economic growth through interest rate cuts. Others, however, oppose this perspective on tariff-induced inflation, arguing that US trade negotiations are unlikely to be resolved soon, and their medium and long-term impacts may remain unclear. Therefore, a more cautious approach should be taken with monetary policy tools—a stance he aligns himself with. He said, "The (trade) negotiations may take several months or even years to fully conclude. As the US and its trading partners take reciprocal responsive measures, there may be a tit-for-tat escalation of tariffs." He added that the full impact of tariffs on intermediate goods would take some time to filter through to final prices. Kashkari expressed concern about how long long-term inflation expectations could avoid becoming unanchored, given that the US inflation rate has far exceeded the Fed's 2% target for four years. "These arguments support maintaining the stance of policy rates—currently possibly moderately restrictive—until the path of tariffs and their impact on prices and economic activity become clearer," Kashkari said. "Personally, I find these arguments more compelling because I place great importance on safeguarding long-term inflation expectations." Since last December, the US Fed has kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. After Trump took office in January this year, as officials found it increasingly difficult to estimate the impact of Trump's policies, particularly his tariff policies, the path forward for the US Fed's monetary policy also seemed increasingly shrouded in uncertainty.

Every year, among the global central banks' event calendars, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium hosted by the US Fed and the Sintra Forum (ECB Forum on Central Banking) hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB) have consistently been the two most closely watched events. However, few may be aware that in Japan, a similar high-profile central banking event is now held annually... On Tuesday, the two-day annual central banking conference, hosted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and its affiliated think tank, commenced at the BOJ headquarters in Tokyo. Despite lacking hiking trails and scenic countryside views, this central banking event is still hailed by industry insiders as Japan's version of the "Jackson Hole Economic Symposium." Participants include renowned scholars from the US, Europe, and Asia, along with officials from the US Fed, ECB, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of Australia, including the Fed's third-in-command, John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Industry insiders suggest that this year's global central banking symposium in Tokyo may focus on two troubling realities: sluggish economic growth and persistent inflation. Although most speeches are academic in nature and closed to the media, the theme of this year's conference is "New Challenges for Monetary Policy," and these "new challenges" are undoubtedly well-known to insiders: How should central banks respond to stubbornly high inflation, downside economic risks, market volatility, and US tariffs... These conflicting headwinds are largely caused by the policies of US President Donald Trump, and the uncertainty of the outlook is putting many central banks in a difficult position, regardless of whether they are planning to raise or cut interest rates. For example, the BOJ, as the "host," is still insisting on continuing to raise interest rates and steadily scaling back its bond-buying program, which stands in stark contrast to other peers globally that are cutting interest rates. However, recent global developments have raised questions about such tightening measures. What will be discussed at this year's conference? At last year's conference, participants summarized the gains and losses of responding to economic recessions by discussing lessons learned from using various unconventional monetary easing tools. The conference also explored whether Japan—the "outlier" that maintained ultra-low interest rates while other major central banks aggressively raised rates—could emerge from decades of deflation and low inflation with the help of nascent and sustained wage growth. This year, although central bankers' concerns may primarily focus on tariff-induced economic recessions, the conference's agenda indicates that policymakers remain highly sensitive to the risk of falling into a prolonged period of excessively high inflation. According to the meeting agenda seen by industry insiders, one of the parallel sessions will focus on "reserve requirements, interest rate control, and quantitative tightening." Another session will discuss a paper published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in December last year titled "Monetary Policy and Inflation Scare." The paper explains how significant supply shocks, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, can lead to persistent inflation and warns that central banks may face risks if they believe cost-push price pressures can be ignored. "Better to be 'slow' than to 'make a mistake.'" This warning holds implications for major central banks currently facing similar dilemmas—a situation exacerbated by global trade wars and Trump's erratic trade policies. The US Fed was initially expected to implement multiple interest rate cuts this year, but as the risk of inflation rising due to Trump's tariffs intensifies, the Fed has been forced into a wait-and-see mode. Meanwhile, according to industry insiders' interactions with European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, although the ECB is expected to cut interest rates again in June, the rationale for pausing action is strengthening as inflation challenges emerge. "Tariffs may curb inflation in the short term but pose upside risks in the medium term," Isabel Schnabel, an ECB Executive Board member and a prominent hawk, explicitly called for a pause in interest rate cuts at a conference at Stanford University on May 9. Meanwhile, Japan, currently in a tightening cycle, is also facing the challenge of balancing domestic inflationary pressures with the downside risks to economic growth posed by US tariffs. Trump's tariffs have forced the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to sharply lower its economic growth forecast on May 1 and hint at a pause in its interest rate hiking cycle—currently, the short-term interest rate remains at a low of 0.5%. Despite this, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled readiness to resume interest rate hikes if underlying inflation continues to stabilize toward the 2% target. Japan's core consumer inflation rate hit a two-year high of 3.5% in April, with food prices surging 7%, indicating the pressure rising living costs are placing on Japanese households. Nobuyasu Atago, a former BOJ official and now chief economist at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute, stated that it is evident that the BOJ has failed to fulfill its mission of price stability. Inflation will remain one of the BOJ's concerns, and the BOJ may already be lagging in addressing domestic price pressures. As of press time, Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, had delivered a keynote speech at the opening event of the annual meeting, stating that the degree of monetary easing would be adjusted as needed. The US dollar fell sharply against the Japanese yen by over 30 pips in the short term. Subsequently, Agustin Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements, was also scheduled to deliver a speech, which investors should continue to monitor.

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China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. (CAERI) and Yingwang Sign Strategic Cooperation Agreement; Night Session SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Upward [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA): From January to April, China's automobile exports reached 2.16 million units, with a YoY growth rate of 15%. (Bullish ★) (2) CAERI and Yingwang signed a strategic cooperation agreement, covering areas such as think tank construction and digital model development. (Bullish ★) (3) Moody's maintains China's sovereign credit rating; Ministry of Finance: A positive reflection of the country's promising economic outlook. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① The fourth round of tariff negotiations between Japan and the US is scheduled to take place on the 30th. The Japanese government plans to utilize 900 billion yen in national funds to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. ② EU: In negotiations with the US, the EU's proposal of "zero tariffs for zero tariffs" remains on the table; it is reported that the EU plans to accelerate negotiations with the US. ③ South Africa proposes to purchase US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to reach a trade agreement. (Neutral)