In mid-March 2026, CAAM and the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance successively released relevant data on the auto and power battery markets for February 2026. According to CAAM’s analysis, auto production and sales declined YoY under the combined impact of multiple factors, including policy transition adjustments, front-load demand release, the timing shift of the Chinese New Year holiday, insufficient willingness to consume, and a high base in the same period last year. Among them, the passenger vehicle market and NEV market both declined YoY, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve, and auto exports grew rapidly. .......SMM compiled the relevant data on the auto market and power battery market for February 2026 for readers’ reference. Automobiles CAAM: February Auto Output and Sales Reached 1.672 Million and 1.805 Million Units, Respectively In February, auto output and sales totaled 1.672 million and 1.805 million units, down 31.7% and 23.1% MoM, and down 20.5% and 15.2% YoY, respectively. From January to February, auto output and sales totaled 4.122 million and 4.152 million units, down 9.5% and 8.8% YoY, respectively. CAAM: February NEV Sales Reached 765,000 Units; January-February NEV Output and Sales Reached 1.71 Million Units In February, NEV output and sales totaled 694,000 and 765,000 units, down 21.8% and 14.2% YoY, respectively. NEV sales accounted for 42.4% of total new vehicle sales. From January to February, NEV output and sales totaled 1.735 million and 1.71 million units, down 8.8% and 6.9% YoY, respectively. NEV sales accounted for 41.2% of total new vehicle sales. CAAM: Auto Exports Continued to Grow in February; NEV Exports up 1.1x YoY In February, NEV exports were 282,000 units, down 6.6% MoM, up 1.1x YoY ; traditional fuel vehicle exports were 391,000 units, up 2.8% MoM and up 26.2% YoY . From January to February, NEV exports were 583,000 units, up 1.1x YoY; traditional fuel vehicle exports were 769,000 units, up 22.2% YoY . Regarding the auto market in February, CAAM said that this year’s Chinese New Year fell in mid-to-late February, and the holiday was extended. As a result, there were only 16 effective working days in February, which had a certain impact on enterprise production and operations, and overall market activity declined. Judging from industry performance from January to February, auto production and sales declined YoY under the combined impact of multiple factors, including policy transition adjustments, front-load demand release, the timing shift of the Chinese New Year holiday, insufficient willingness to consume, and a high base in the same period last year. Among them, the passenger vehicle market and NEVs declined YoY, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve and auto exports grew rapidly. This year’s government work report explicitly proposed to stimulate the endogenous momentum of household consumption and advance consumption-promoting policies in parallel, continue to amplify the effect of the policy package, further rectify “involution-style” competition, and foster a sound market ecosystem. It is believed that, as detailed local subsidy measures are fully implemented after the holiday, spring auto show sales promotions begin, and automakers roll out new models one after another, this will help boost consumer confidence, energize the auto market, and promote the healthy and stable operation of the industry. Subsequently, the CPCA also released data on the passenger vehicle market for February 2026. From February 1 to 28, retail sales in China’s passenger vehicle market reached 1.034 million units, down 25.4% YoY and down 33.1% MoM. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year totaled 2.578 million units, down 18.9% YoY. As market factors have become more complex, the pattern of “low at the beginning and high at the end” in annual sales has become more evident in recent years. Affected by disruptions such as Chinese New Year, February retail sales have seen wild YoY swings over the years, for example: 2019 (-19%), 2020 (-79%), 2021 (373%), 2022 (5%), 2023 (10%), 2024 (-21%), and 2025 (26%). Therefore, the -25.4% in 2026 was at the lower-middle end of the range of sharp fluctuations in February growth rates over the years. NEVs, retail sales in the passenger NEV market were 464,000 units in February, down 32.0% YoY; from January to February, retail sales in the passenger NEV market were 1.06 million units, down 25.7% YoY. Retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles were 570,000 units in February, down 19% YoY. In February, passenger NEV producer exports were 269,000 units, up 124.7% YoY and down 7.0% MoM; from January to February, passenger NEV producer exports were 559,000 units, up 114.7% YoY, while exports of conventional fuel passenger vehicles were 290,000 units in February, up 21% YoY. NEV exports, as the scale advantages of China’s new energy vehicles become more apparent and market expansion demand grows, more and more China-made new energy brand products are going outside China, and their recognition outside China continues to improve. Among them, PHEVs accounted for 38% of NEV exports (38% in the same period last year). Although they have recently been affected by some disruptions from external countries, exports of independently developed PHEVs to developing countries have grown rapidly, with bright prospects. In February, passenger NEV exports were 269,000 units, up 124.7% YoY and down 7.0% MoM. They accounted for 48.5% of passenger vehicle exports, up 14.8 percentage points YoY; BEVs accounted for 58% of NEV exports (59% in the same period last year), and A00- and A0-class EVs, the core focus, accounted for 55% of BEV exports (56% in the same period last year). The CPCA stated that after the NEV purchase tax exemption policy, which had been implemented since September 2014, was formally phased out at the end of December 2025, the NEV market in 2026 entered a recovery period amid adjustments to tax subsidies. Some consumers brought forward purchases to 2025 to benefit from the policy, resulting in a certain pull-forward effect in January-February this year. This was an expected short-term fluctuation and does not represent the market’s long-term trend. However, with Chinese New Year falling later this year, making it a major consumption year, growth in the auto market diverged, and NEVs did not perform strongly, indicating that more policy support is still needed. Key features of the passenger vehicle market in February 2026: 1. In February, passenger vehicle producers’ daily average exports hit a record high for the month, fully demonstrating the steadily improving competitiveness of China’s automotive industry in the global market and continued robust demand outside China; 2. The retail pullback after the expiration of the vehicle purchase tax exemption was evident, but structural changes were also clear, namely a higher share of high-end NEVs and a lower share of entry-level consumption, which is conducive to the industry’s transition toward high-quality development; 3. New vehicle launches were steady in 2026, and together with the advance of anti-involution efforts curbing disorderly price cuts, NEV sales promotions stayed at 10.4% in February, remaining around 10% for six consecutive months. No vicious volume discount competition emerged, helping maintain market order; 4. The historical pattern of internal combustion engine vehicles outperforming NEVs before Chinese New Year continued again. In February, retail sales in China of internal combustion engine vehicles fell 19% YoY, while pure electric vehicle retail sales fell 35% YoY, range-extended vehicles fell 16% YoY, and PHEVs fell 31% YoY. As time goes by, consumers are expected to gradually adapt to the normalization of NEV taxation, and the NEV market is expected to return to a track of positive growth; 5. This February was still a pre-Chinese New Year consumption phase dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles. NEV penetration rate in retail sales in China was 44.9%, and export penetration rate was 48.5%, which was a relatively good performance; 6. In February 2026, exports of self-owned-brand internal combustion engine passenger vehicles reached 247,000, up 21% YoY, while exports of self-owned-brand NEVs reached 231,000, up 110% YoY. NEVs accounted for 48.4% of self-owned-brand exports. In particular, the high growth of NEV exports in Europe, Southeast Asia, and other regions marked the expanding influence of China’s NEV brands in the international market, laying a solid foundation for future export growth. Power Battery In February, China’s cumulative sales of power and ESS batteries reached 113.2 Gwh, up 25.7% YoY In February, China’s sales of power and ESS batteries reached 113.2 Gwh, down 23.9% MoM, up 25.7% YoY . Of this, power battery sales were 74.5 Gwh, accounting for 65.9% of total sales, down 27.4% MoM and up 11.4% YoY; ESS battery sales were 38.6 Gwh, accounting for 34.1% of total sales, down 16.2% MoM and up 67.3% YoY. From January to February, China’s cumulative sales of power and ESS batteries were 262 Gwh, up 53.8% YoY . Of this, cumulative power battery sales were 177.2 Gwh, accounting for 67.6% of total sales and up 36.5% YoY; cumulative ESS battery sales were 84.8 Gwh, accounting for 32.4% of total sales and up 108.9% YoY. From January to February, cumulative power battery installations were 68.3 Gwh, with LFP installations accounting for 77.9% In February, China’s power battery installations were 26.3 Gwh, down 37.4% MoM and down 24.6% YoY. Of this, ternary battery installations were 5.7 Gwh, accounting for 21.7% of total installations, down 39.1% MoM and down 11.4% YoY; LFP battery installations were 20.6 Gwh, accounting for 78.3% of total installations, down 36.9% MoM and down 27.5% YoY. From January to February, cumulative power battery installations in China were 68.3 Gwh, down 7.2% YoY. Of this, cumulative ternary battery installations were 15.1 Gwh, accounting for 22.1% of total installations and up 0.6% YoY; cumulative LFP battery installations were 53.3 Gwh, accounting for 77.9% of total installations and down 9.2% YoY. More Than 60% of A/H-Share Automakers Achieved YoY Growth, March Auto Market Production and Sales Will See Rapid MoM Growth Earlier, CLS compiled the January-February sales performance of 14 A/H-share listed automakers, of which 9 achieved YoY growth, accounting for more than 60%, and 3 automakers recorded February sales outside China exceeding those in the Chinese market. Among emerging EV makers, Leap Motor still firmly held the top spot in deliveries, with 28,067 units delivered in February, up 10.99% YoY; cumulative deliveries in 2026 reached 60,126 units, up 19.16% YoY. While releasing its February delivery figures, Leap Motor said its March car purchase incentives had gone live, with discounts of up to 46,000 yuan for in-stock vehicles. Li Auto delivered 26,421 units in February, up 0.6% YoY. Cumulative deliveries in 2026 reached 54,089 units, down 3.74% YoY. As of February 28, 2026, Li Auto’s historical cumulative deliveries totaled 1.594 million units. Li Auto said that as of February 28, 2026, it had 539 retail centers nationwide, covering 160 cities; 548 after-sales repair centers and authorized service centers, covering 223 cities. Li Auto had put into use 4,054 Li Auto supercharging stations nationwide, with 22,447 charging piles. NIO delivered 20,797 new vehicles in February, up 57.65% YoY. Cumulative deliveries in the first two months of 2026 reached 47,979 units, up 77.34% YoY. To date, NIO has delivered a total of 1,045,571 new vehicles. At 22:33:18 on February 6, NIO completed its 100 millionth battery swap; during the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday, NIO provided a cumulative 2,073,500 battery swapping services, with daily average services up 29.4% YoY versus the Chinese New Year holiday last year. From February 15 to February 23, NIO Energy's cumulative highway charging and battery swapping volume exceeded 25.28 million kWh, accounting for 15% of the national highway charging and battery swapping total. Starting from February 18 (the second day of the Chinese New Year), NIO battery swapping set new single-day service records for five consecutive days. XPeng Motors delivered a total of 15,256 new vehicles in February, bringing cumulative deliveries in the first two months of 2026 to 35,267 units, down 42% YoY. In February, the all-new XPeng G6 launched in the UK, with the entire lineup equipped as standard with an 800V high-voltage platform and a new-generation LFP battery, while introducing an all-wheel-drive performance black edition for the first time. The XPeng G6 has now been exported to more than 40 countries and regions worldwide, covering Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America, and continues to win favour among an increasing number of overseas consumers. As for Xiaomi Auto, its deliveries exceeded 20,000 units in February, while January deliveries exceeded 39,000 units, bringing cumulative deliveries in the first two months of 2026 to 59,000 units. Notably, the Xiaomi YU7 continued to rank first in sales in February and has now held the top spot for six consecutive months. In February 2026, Xiaomi YU7 sales reached 20,196 units, ranking among the top three passenger vehicle models nationwide for the month. As for BYD, China's "EV king," February sales reached 190,190 units, retaining its position as China's NEV sales champion. In January-February 2026, BYD Group's cumulative sales reached 400,241 units, while cumulative overseas sales of passenger vehicles and pickups totaled 200,160 units, and cumulative new energy vehicle sales exceeded 15.5 million units. On March 5, BYD unveiled the second-generation blade battery. Wang Chuanfu, Chairman of BYD Group, said that the second-generation blade battery can charge from 10% to 70% in 5 minutes, and from 10% to 97% in just 9 minutes. The second-generation blade battery offers 5% higher battery energy density than the first-generation blade battery. Car models equipped with the second-generation blade battery include the Yangwang U7, Denza N9, Fangchengbao Tai 3, Seal 07, Datang, Sea Lion 06, Song Ultra, Fangchengbao Tai 7, Denza Z9GT, and Yangwang U8L, among which the Denza Z9GT has a driving range of 1,036 km. Regarding auto industry sales in February 2026, Cailian Press quoted an executive at a new carmaker as saying, "Affected by the longest-ever nine-day Chinese New Year holiday in February, the auto industry's effective production and sales period was significantly shortened, making it a typical off-season for auto consumption. Combined with the phased reduction in the vehicle purchase tax incentive, the auto industry as a whole remained subdued and full of challenges.” Looking ahead to the passenger vehicle market in March, the CPCA said that March this year had 22 working days, one more than the 21 working days in March 2025. As industries across the board rapidly returned to normal operations after the Chinese New Year holiday, production and sales growth in March is expected to rise sharply MoM. The post-Chinese New Year period is an important window for new product launches, and many producers rolled out a large number of new vehicles. Driven by national pro-consumption policies, many provinces and cities introduced corresponding measures to stimulate consumption, while the full resumption of offline activities such as auto shows will also accelerate the return of foot traffic. As prices of lithium carbonate, copper, and other materials have remained high recently, coupled with the continued anti-involution trend, producers are expected to launch relatively few new energy car models offering better-than-expected value for money, leaving limited potential for an explosive rebound in auto consumption. Although the recent Middle East crisis caused some transportation disruptions, China’s complete vehicle enterprises shifted from “chartering vessels and waiting for shipping space” to “building ships and controlling transport,” with rapid expansion of their own fleets, greater autonomy and control over shipping capacity, and significant optimization in cost and efficiency. Our sales support capabilities are stronger than those of other international automakers, and if the crisis does not last long, export transportation will not be significantly affected. As the national trade-in policy is fully implemented, the consumer potential for replacement and upgrade purchases will be gradually released, helping the auto market strengthen steadily in March. In 2026, policy subsidies and structural optimization in the auto industry will become key factors in leveraging overall market prosperity and accelerating the premiumization of new energy vehicles. Although the 2026 consumer goods trade-in subsidy fund of 250 billion yuan was down 50 billion yuan from 2025, the 100 billion yuan in special fiscal and financial coordinated funding to boost domestic demand can reduce financing costs for residents’ car purchases and automakers through loan interest subsidies and financing guarantees, effectively stimulating endogenous consumption momentum and expanding new room for domestic demand. Huachuang Securities pointed out that since March, the passenger vehicle retail market has begun to improve, with foot traffic and transactions gradually recovering, mainly due to the digestion of deferred wait-and-see demand from last year and the launch of new models. Attention should be paid to market acceptance of new vehicles after price increases and to dynamic adjustments by automakers. Although the subsidy amount per vehicle declined this year, coverage may expand. Combined with the low base in H2 last year, industry retail sales growth in H2 is expected to turn positive, with full-year retail growth expected at 1%, including +5% for EVs. Export data for January-February exceeded expectations, and full-year exports are expected to surpass 7.1 million units, boosting wholesale growth by about 3%, including +8% for EVs. In February, due to weaker demand during the Chinese New Year, the new energy penetration rate remained firm at 48%. Current total channel inventory is about 3.4 million units, an increase of about 600,000 units compared to the same period last year. Rising Prices of Memory Chips and Precious Metals, Some Automakers Warn of Cost Pressure It is worth noting that as memory chip and precious metal prices have fluctuated upward recently, some automakers in the market have begun trying to respond to supply chain cost pressure through “price increases.”Monitoring data from TrendForce showed that since H2 2025, prices of DDR4 memory used in automotive-grade DRAM have risen by more than 150% cumulatively, while DDR5 memory prices have surged by 300%. Data provided by UBS showed that over the past three months, automotive-grade DRAM prices as a whole increased by 180%. According to incomplete statistics, since the start of 2026, multiple automakers, including NIO, Li Auto, VOYAH, Xiaomi, and Zeekr, have issued warnings or been reported to be facing cost challenges brought by chip price increases. In a livestream, Deepal Chairman Deng Chenghao said that current production costs have risen by several thousand yuan compared with earlier levels, with the pressure mainly coming from wild swings in power battery and in-vehicle memory chip prices; Li Auto Vice President of Supply Chain Meng Qingpeng even warned that the supply fulfillment rate for automotive memory chips in 2026 may be less than 50%; Xiaomi Chairman Lei Jun mentioned in a livestream in January that the new Xiaomi SU7 is facing memory cost pressure that is jumping quarter by quarter, with memory cost per vehicle expected to increase by several thousand yuan. However, according to the latest news from NIO on March 11, NIO founder and chairman Li Bin said that rising prices of memory and other raw materials have impacted the cost of high-end new energy car models by 3,000 to 5,000 yuan respectively, with the total impact nearing 10,000 yuan. At present, NIO’s existing system can support the pressure brought by rising costs, and the company currently has no plan to adjust prices. At the Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings call, Li Auto President Ma Donghui said that in response to the impact brought by the current increase in parts prices, Li Auto will strengthen coordination with supply partners and sign long-term LTA agreements with relevant suppliers to lock in prices or allocations in advance. If there is a price adjustment mechanism, it will be strictly implemented in accordance with the contract; where there is no price adjustment mechanism, the company will also share costs with suppliers. It will absorb as much of the pressure from external price increases internally as possible, including through its self-developed range extender and self-developed chips. “Li Auto will comprehensively consider parts costs and user value in determining the pricing of new car models, and is confident that through a series of measures it can keep the impact of raw materials within a reasonable range,” Ma Donghui said. UBS warned that chip shortages may begin disrupting global auto production as early as Q2 this year, with EV manufacturers that are highly dependent on advanced chips expected to be affected the most.

SMM News on May 14: Today, driven by positive policy developments, the main lithium carbonate futures contract fluctuated upward after opening, surging over 3% during the session. By the close of the daytime session, the main contract closed up 3% at 65,200 yuan/mt, up 2,640 yuan/mt from the low of 62,560 yuan/mt set during the session on May 12, representing a 4.22% increase. In terms of spot prices, according to SMM's spot quotes, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate also rose slightly by 100 yuan/mt today, trading at 63,600-65,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 64,700 yuan/mt. 》Click to view SMM's spot quotes for new energy products Regarding the reasons for the rise in lithium carbonate futures prices, SMM believes it is mainly related to positive policy news. On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce website released a joint statement on the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks, announcing that the US's 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese products would be suspended for the initial 90 days. According to the latest news today, this tariff adjustment has been temporarily implemented. SMM understands that, overall, due to exemptions for NEVs and their parts before and after this reciprocal tariff adjustment, the change in reciprocal tariffs will have a greater impact on the export of ESS batteries, potentially prompting an anticipated rush in exports of Chinese ESS battery cells, thereby driving up the demand for lithium carbonate. Starting from May 14, the tariff on new energy end-use products exported from China to the US is as follows: SMM predicts that, given the installation rush demand for ESS storage mentioned in China's Document No. 136 regarding the "May 31" grid connection deadline, the ESS battery cells produced in May may not be able to meet the installation rush demand in time this month. Therefore, the market previously expected that the production volume of ESS battery cells in May might decrease by 5-10% MoM compared to April. However, influenced by the golden export window period brought about by the change in US tariffs, and considering that it takes approximately one month for transportation and customs clearance from China to the US, it is expected that the production schedule of ESS battery cells for top-tier enterprises will remain at a high level in May and June, and the growth rate of ESS battery cell production is expected to turn from negative to positive MoM. 》Click to view details Returning to the supply and demand dynamics of the lithium carbonate market, lithium carbonate prices are currently hovering near recent lows. Under the pressure of cost losses, upstream lithium chemical plants have shown a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Currently, there is only a certain level of trading activity between traders and downstream enterprises. The positive expectations for an increase in end-use demand driven by the aforementioned policy developments may, to a certain extent, drive a rebound in lithium carbonate prices. However, it should also be noted that although lithium carbonate inventory levels have slightly decreased after the Labour Day holiday, the current cumulative inventory level of lithium carbonate remains high. Moreover, ore prices continue to hit new lows, and cost support is continuously weakening. Therefore, the overall price of lithium carbonate will continue to exhibit a fluctuating trend at lows. As the futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate rose together, the shares of energy metal companies, including Tengyuan Cobalt, Huayou Cobalt, YOUNGY, Zhongkuang Resources, Weiling Co., Ltd., and Tianqi Lithium, also "rose", with multiple stocks increasing by over 1%. Dazhong Mining also responded today on the investor interaction platform regarding the progress of the lithium mine tunnel in Hunan. The company stated that as of now, the lithium mine tunnel in Hunan has been completed, laying a certain foundation for the early commissioning of mining and beneficiation operations. According to the "Lithium Exploration Report of the Tongtianmiao Ore Block in the Jijiaoshan Mining Area, Linwu County, Hunan Province" reviewed and filed by the company for its resource reserves, the associated minerals of the Jijiaoshan lithium mine in Hunan include metals such as rubidium, niobium, tantalum, tin, and tungsten. Institutional Comments Xinhu Futures commented that there are no significant positive factors in the short-term fundamentals, making it difficult for lithium prices to reverse their trend. However, at the current price level, it is necessary to be cautious about the rising expectations of supply-side disruptions and the capital-driven nature of low valuations. Given the relatively high channel inventory levels across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, this will also limit the rebound space for lithium prices. Yide Futures stated that, on the supply side, the CIF price of Australian ore has fallen to $687.5/mt, while the price of African ore has remained stable at $637/mt. Port lithium ore inventory has increased, and the planned production of lithium carbonate nationwide for May has increased MoM, with the latest weekly production data showing a significant increase. On the demand side, the planned production of cathode materials, including ternary materials and LFP, has increased MoM. Based on the current production schedule, the supply and demand fundamentals still maintain a surplus pattern. In terms of inventory, the latest weekly inventory has decreased by 464 mt. Specifically, the significant increase in smelter production has not yet been transferred downstream or to traders, leading to a noticeable increase in their inventory, while the inventory of downstream traders has decreased. In the short term, the combination of front-loaded consumption and collapsing costs has led to a significant pullback in lithium carbonate prices. From a long-term industry perspective, the market requires a more thorough exit of the resource side. SDIC Futures stated that the total market inventory has decreased by 500 mt to 132,000 mt, with downstream inventory decreasing by 3,000 mt to 42,000 mt and smelter inventory increasing by 3,800 mt to 55,000 mt. The intermediate links are actively destocking. In terms of inventory structure, there is a weak willingness for downstream restocking, while passive restocking has occurred upstream, reflecting differences in market sentiment. The latest quote for Australian ore is $700, with a decline of over 15% in the past month, basically reflecting a downward shift in the price center. The midstream production has recovered rapidly, with a 28% increase in production MoM in the first week after the holiday, and an improvement in supply and demand still needs to be awaited. The futures price of lithium carbonate is in a downward channel, and short positions are being maintained.

Wishing everyone a happy and healthy Dragon Boat Festival! Let's first take a look at the latest news. Trump says he will raise tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50% According to CCTV News, on May 30 local time, US President Trump stated that tariffs on imported steel would be raised from 25% to 50%. The US White House issued an announcement on social media on the same day, stating that to further protect the US steel industry from foreign and unfair competition, starting next week, tariffs on imported steel in the US would be raised from 25% to 50%. On February 10 local time, Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the US. On March 12, the measure to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the US officially took effect. In addition, Trump stated that US automakers, including Tesla, must produce entire vehicles and all parts in the US, rather than abroad. Trump expressed that he was troubled by the fact that automakers previously produced parts in Canada, Mexico, and European countries, but in the coming year, these automakers "must produce entire vehicles in the US." OPEC+ may increase oil production more than expected in July On the evening of May 30, Reuters reported that sources said OPEC+ might discuss increasing oil production in July at its meeting on Saturday, with the increase potentially exceeding market expectations of 411,000 barrels per day. The report stated that despite the additional supply weighing on oil prices, OPEC+ member countries have been rapidly increasing production. Part of the intention of the organization's leading countries, Saudi Arabia and Russia, in this move is to punish member countries that have overproduced and regain market share. Some sources indicated that Kazakhstan's statement on Thursday that it would not cut production sparked debate within OPEC+, a factor that might tilt Saturday's meeting towards a larger production increase. Russia and Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Friday. Following the news, international oil prices plunged in the short term, with WTI crude oil futures falling below the $60/barrel mark during the session. Falling below the 1,000 yuan/mt mark! When will glass futures hit bottom? Recently, spot prices of glass have continued to decline, and futures prices have also continued to weaken. Yesterday, the most-traded glass futures contract fell below the 1,000 yuan/mt mark, dropping to a low of 971 yuan/mt. "Domestic demand for float glass has been weak this week, and prices have continued to fall," said Wei Chaoming, an analyst at Founder Securities Futures. He noted that two float glass production lines commenced operations this week, coupled with news of production resumption plans from some major manufacturers, leading to a growing wait-and-see sentiment in the market. In his view, although the spot market performed poorly, futures prices fluctuated due to environmental protection news from Hubei. On Wednesday, the most-traded glass futures contract rebounded to 1,050 yuan/mt at one point. As the rainy season approaches, demand remains in the doldrums, compounded by the aforementioned production resumption news, futures prices pulled back rapidly, with the most-traded contract falling below the 1,000 yuan/mt threshold, hitting a new low for the period. Fundamentally, the movement of futures prices was within market expectations. According to Jialu Shou, an analyst at Nanhua Futures, the spot market has been weak recently, with poor production and sales performance. Spot prices in Hubei continued to decline, once dropping to 1,010 yuan/mt, while outbound prices even fell below 1,000 yuan/mt. The spot price correction confirmed prior market expectations. Additionally, glass producers' inventories remain high, and downstream enterprises show low enthusiasm for restocking. Shou noted that from January to May 2025, glass apparent demand fell 10% YoY, below market expectations. Based on the current apparent demand trend, daily melting capacity of float glass would need to drop to 154,000 mt to achieve supply-demand balance in H2. Further reductions would be required to destock during the off-season. "The main pressure facing the glass market currently is weak demand and subdued market expectations. This has led to a supply-demand mismatch even with low daily melting capacity," Shou said. The market expects low prices to push glass producers into a new round of maintenance. Fundamental improvements later would depend on either capacity exits or demand recovery, with the former being more likely. Peng Hu, senior energy and chemical analyst at China Securities Futures, agreed: "Whether fundamentals improve later hinges on whether supply declines following price drops. Before the September-October peak season in H2, if glass supply decreases, high inventory pressure at enterprises could ease." Futures Daily learned from interviews that glass prices are already at relatively low levels, with production lines fueled by natural gas and petroleum coke operating at a loss, while those using coal gas still have profit margins. "From a valuation perspective, glass prices still have about 100 yuan/mt of downside room before the entire industry chain incurs losses," Shou said. Currently, no unexpected maintenance has occurred on the supply side, with some production lines still starting up, providing support for shorts to further depress glass prices. The undervalued state of glass prices will be hard to reverse in the short term. Chaoming Wei stated that glass price trends reflect profound changes in the industry environment. Under supply-demand mismatch conditions, glass prices will remain in the doldrums over the medium and long term."In the glass industry, cold repairs and production resumptions coexist. From the perspective of the industry's inventory levels, the maintenance of a small number of production lines is unlikely to have a fundamental impact on the supply-demand pattern of the industry." He believes that the glass industry has sufficient potential supply capability, and if industry profits improve, it will incentivize more production lines currently under maintenance to resume production. In Shou Jialu's view, the capacity exit situation on the supply side in the later period will determine the trend of glass prices. "From the perspective of trading logic, the longer the low glass prices persist, the stronger the market's expectations will be for industry shutdowns, maintenance, and capacity exits," she said. "Currently, after the most-traded glass futures contract fell below the 1,000 yuan/mt integer threshold, there is no clear support level in the short term," said Wei Chaoming. Compared with the most-traded contract, the current prices of raw materials for glass production, such as coal and soda ash, have all pulled back significantly, indicating that there is still downside room for glass prices. However, Hu Peng believes that the downside room for glass futures prices is relatively limited. He predicts that in extreme cases, glass futures prices may dip to 900 yuan/mt. In his view, with the continuous decline in glass prices, the glass industry may enter a new round of structural adjustment.

On the 28th local time, OPEC+ held an online meeting. Early this morning, according to the latest news from Bloomberg, based on the statement released after the meeting, OPEC+ has agreed to use the 2025 oil production level as the benchmark for 2027. Meanwhile, OPEC+ will authorize the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity of participating countries, which will serve as a reference for the 2027 production benchmark. The next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting of OPEC+ will be held on November 30th. OPEC+ will also hold another round of negotiations this Saturday, when it may decide whether to increase production in July. Representatives said that the eight OPEC+ member countries attending the meeting on Saturday may agree to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels in July, in line with the production increases in May and June. In addition, according to CCTV News, on the 28th local time, US President Trump stated that he had warned Israel to refrain from attacking Iran for the time being, so that the US government could have more time to promote a new nuclear agreement with Iran. Trump said he believed that Iran wanted to reach an agreement, which would "save many lives," and that the agreement could be reached "within the next few weeks." Trump also expressed his desire to bring inspectors to Iran. Overnight and into the early morning, international oil prices continued to rise. WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.5% to $62.41 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 2% to $64.85 per barrel. At the close, WTI crude oil futures closed up 1.56% at $61.84 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed up 1.26% at $64.90 per barrel. US Fed releases minutes of May interest rate-setting meeting According to CCTV News, on May 28th local time, the US Fed released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting held from May 6th to 7th. The minutes showed that the Fed agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%. Participants unanimously agreed that when considering the magnitude and timing of further adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee would carefully assess subsequent data, the changing economic outlook, and the balance of risks. The minutes stated that when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee would continue to monitor the impact of future information on the economic outlook. Participants said that the assessment would take into account a wide range of information, including labour market conditions, inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, as well as financial and international developments. The Committee assessed that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook had further increased. Participants pointed out that if inflation persists while the outlook for economic growth and employment weakens, the Committee may face difficult trade-offs. The final magnitude of adjustments to government policies and their impact on the economy remain highly uncertain. Against this backdrop, all participants agreed that it was appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. When considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants unanimously believed that, given the continued resilience of economic growth and the labour market, the Committee was well-positioned to wait for greater clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity. It was appropriate to adopt a cautious approach until the net economic effects of a series of government policy adjustments became clearer. Glencore makes significant purchases of Russian copper on the LME On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported market news that over the past three trading days, the London Metal Exchange (LME) Rotterdam warehouse had received delivery requests for approximately 15,000 mt of copper, leading to a significant decline in LME copper inventories. The report stated that Glencore, a global commodity giant, was the main trader behind these cargo pick-up applications and was planning to ship the copper to China. Notably, a substantial amount of Russian copper was involved in the transactions. It is understood that since the full-scale outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, escalating sanctions imposed by Europe and the US on Russia have led to a continuous accumulation of Russian copper inventories on the LME. In April 2024, the US and the UK announced new trading restrictions on Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel, including prohibiting the LME and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) from accepting newly produced Russian metals, while allowing eligible metal inventories. What are the implications? "After the US and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian copper in April 2024, Russian copper accounted for over 50% of the copper inventories in LME European warehouses, while China became one of the major export destinations for Russian copper following the sanctions," Zhang Weixin, a non-ferrous metals researcher at China Securities Futures, told reporters. After Russia and Ukraine resumed negotiations and proposed a ceasefire framework in May this year, Glencore may be betting on a relaxation of US and UK sanctions on Russia. Against the backdrop of warming spot demand in China, high premiums for imported copper, and the potential easing of US and UK sanctions on Russia, if Glencore resumes trading in Russian copper, it is expected to alleviate the "copper shortage" situation in the market. The reporter learned that in March this year, US copper prices surged to $11,633/mt, with a premium over LME copper reaching as high as $1,570/mt. Gu Fengda, chief analyst at Guosen Futures, stated that the high premium for US copper directly spurred a frenzy of "trans-oceanic arbitrage" and attracted a continuous influx of global spot copper into the US, further exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch across regions. Currently, the premium for US copper over LME copper stands at $683/mt, still significantly higher than the historical average for the same period. "With the favorable performance of copper fundamentals and the flow of some spot copper to the US, expectations of tight copper supply in markets outside the US continue to grow, which is also an important reason for Glencore's significant purchases of Russian copper this time."As spot liquidity tightens, LME copper's term structure may remain strong," said Xianfei Ji, a nonferrous metals researcher at Guotai Junan Futures. Data shows that since late April, LME copper inventories have continued to decline. This week, the destocking pace of LME copper inventories accelerated further, currently pulling back to 154,300 mt, hitting new periodic lows. Meanwhile, LME copper registered warrant quantities declined in tandem, now retreating to 83,125 mt. Cancelled warrants stood at 71,175 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 46.13%, remaining at elevated levels. Domestically, Weixin Zhang noted that due to the US "Section 232 investigation" on critical minerals, global commodity trading giants have diverted copper originally destined for Asia to the US, even relabeling Chilean Antofagasta copper ingots with US standards. This caused delays or cancellations of China's imported copper long-term contracts scheduled for April and May arrivals, driving up spot copper premiums in China and creating tight spot supply conditions. "Glencore's potential import activities could help alleviate China's copper supply tightness," said Yunfei Wang, head of the investment consulting department at ShanJin Futures. Currently, global copper cathode inventories are at median historical levels, while domestic copper inventories remain at historic lows. From price spread performance, the US copper premium over LME copper remains high, but with intensified price volatility, market divergence is gradually emerging. Policy-wise, after the US "reciprocal tariff" policy implementation was postponed, the market expected accelerated US copper scrap exports and increased raw material supply. However, domestic TC prices show no signs of raw material supply improvement yet. Inventory-wise, as of the week ending May 28, the US copper inventory buildup trend paused, while domestic social inventory also showed stabilization signs. Overall, Wang believes the US copper "arbitrage wave" may reverse at some point, creating downside potential for copper prices, though no reversal signals have appeared yet. Ji noted investors should closely monitor whether Trump will impose 25% additional tariffs on imported copper. If tariff hike expectations keep getting priced in, it may sustain high price spreads between US and LME copper, with South American and other regional supplies continuously diverted to the US, leaving other regions persistently undersupplied. "Short-term, under current spread structures, changed global copper trade flows seem only a matter of time," Wang stated. Medium and long-term, the copper market's focus remains on copper ore supply conditions and demand outlook.

Recently, due to significant fluctuations in the tungsten market prices, the latest news from cnmn.com.cn indicates a decrease in tungsten ore prices: 55% wolframite prices range from 162,000 to 163,000 yuan/mt, a decrease of 3,000 yuan/mt; 55% scheelite prices range from 161,000 to 162,000 yuan/mt, a decrease of 3,000 yuan/mt; 65% wolframite prices range from 164,000 to 165,000 yuan/mt, an increase of 3,000 yuan/mt; 65% scheelite prices range from 163,000 to 164,000 yuan/mt, an increase of 3,000 yuan/mt; 30%-40% scheelite prices range from 159,000 to 160,000 yuan/mt.

SMM News on May 16: This week, cobalt product prices showed mixed performance. The spot quotes for refined cobalt have slightly recovered. Currently, the DRC has not yet announced relevant policies on cobalt export bans, and it is expected to announce follow-up measures in June. Further attention should be paid to relevant developments in the future. In terms of cobalt salts, the quoting attitudes of cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride smelters have polarized... SMM has compiled the price changes of cobalt products this week, as detailed below: Refined Cobalt: This week, the spot price of refined cobalt first rose and then fell, with the overall price showing a slight recovery compared to last week. As of May 16, the spot quotes for refined cobalt remained at 235,500-248,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 242,050 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt or 0.02% from May 9. 》Check SMM cobalt and lithium spot quotes According to SMM, from the supply side, refined cobalt smelters continue to cut production, and the market is still digesting social inventory. From the demand side, orders from downstream producers have not seen significant recovery, and producers continue to maintain a purchasing rhythm of scheduling production according to demand, with no significant inventory-building actions observed downstream. According to the latest news, the DRC has not yet announced relevant policies on cobalt export bans, and it is expected to announce follow-up measures in June. It is expected that next week, the short-term supply and demand situation will remain unchanged, and refined cobalt prices may fluctuate. Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride): According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt sulphate spot quotes fell by 150 yuan/mt this week, to 48,400-50,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 49,200 yuan/mt, down 0.3% from May 9. 》Check SMM cobalt and lithium spot quotes According to SMM, from the supply side, spot quotes for cobalt sulphate from smelters have slightly loosened, and quotes from recycling plants have also declined. From the demand side, downstream precursor producers have weak acceptance of current cobalt sulphate prices and have not yet initiated purchasing actions. Co3O4 enterprises, on the other hand, are dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in extremely sluggish spot transactions for cobalt sulphate recently. It is expected that next week, cobalt sulphate spot prices may maintain a fluctuating trend. Cobalt Chloride: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot quotes also failed to escape the downward trend this week. As of May 16, cobalt chloride spot quotes fell to 59,700-61,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 60,350 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt or 0.08% from May 9. According to SMM, from the supply perspective, due to the unresolved issue of overseas cobalt raw material transportation cycles, smelters remain cautious in their quoting and have hardly engaged in dumping at low prices. From the demand perspective, the purchasing rhythm of downstream Co3O4 enterprises has slowed down, with fewer market inquiries, and spot transactions are mainly for small-batch rigid demand. It is expected that the peak sales season for NEVs in Q3 may drive a rebound in restocking demand from downstream enterprises, and the cobalt chloride market may continue to fluctuate at highs. Industry insiders remain cautious about cost transmission and policy expectations. Co3O4: According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices have been "falling continuously" this week. As of May 16, Co3O4 spot prices dropped to 204,000-212,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 208,250 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt or 0.48% from May 9. According to SMM, despite the high raw material costs due to the export ban in the DRC, excessive domestic inventory has also suppressed the upward momentum of prices, leaving Co3O4 spot prices weak. Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, and most LCO enterprises are still purchasing as needed. The market inquiry atmosphere is sluggish, with fewer effective transactions, and the overall market is in a wait-and-see phase. The industry is generally waiting for further news to stimulate the market. It is expected that Co3O4 spot prices will continue to fall in the short term. On the news front, according to a report by Reuters cited by MiningWeekly, a study released by the Cobalt Institute on Wednesday forecasts that cobalt demand growth will outpace supply, with the cobalt surplus expected to ease in 2024 and turn into a deficit by the early 2030s. The report was completed by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. In the short term, the future of the cobalt market will depend on the developments in the DRC, the world's largest cobalt producer. At the end of February, the country decided to implement a four-month temporary export ban, after which cobalt prices have risen by 60% to $16/lb. In addition to the uncertainties brought about by the DRC's export ban, global cobalt supply is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5% in the coming years. The DRC's share of the global market will decline from 76% last year to 65% by 2030, as Indonesia's cobalt production will rise rapidly, increasing its share from 12% to 22%. Wang Cong, General Manager of Industry Research at SMM, also provided an in-depth analysis of the dynamics of China's cobalt industry chain, global resource competition landscape, and demand trends at the Global Cobalt Forum hosted by the Cobalt Institute in Singapore recently. When mentioning the performance of China's cobalt market after the ban, she noted that the DRC's export ban triggered a rapid increase in cobalt prices, but the domestic industry chain, buffered by sufficient inventory, did not experience a large-scale supply deficit. As prices rebounded, domestic cobalt salt enterprises quickly released capacity, with production increasing on a MoM basis. In addition, the proportion of cobalt sulphate from recycling in China's cobalt sulphate production surged from 10% to 16% within two months, reflecting the rapid response capability of price-sensitive capacity. If the policy on importing lithium battery black mass is further relaxed, the proportion of recycled resources used will increase further. 》Click to view details