According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs China (GACC) imported 104.74 Mt of iron ore and concentrates in March 2026, representing a month-on-month increase of 7.38 Mt , or 7.6% . Cumulative imports for the first quarter reached 314.76 Mt, marking a 10.5 % Y-O-Y growth. Beyond underlying fundamental factors, geopolitical friction also contributed to the elevation of iron ore import volumes during March. Specifically, escalating tensions in the Middle East have severely disrupted commercial shipping lanes traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Although direct export volumes from the Middle Eastern region to China remain comparatively marginal, the destabilisation of global logistics networks precipitated by regional conflicts has forced vessels initially scheduled to transit through the Middle East or adjacent maritime corridors to reroute. Consequently, these diverted cargoes have been redirected towards East Asian markets, prominently including China. Furthermore, the progressive ramp-up of domestic blast furnace utilisation rates throughout March has augmented the steel sector's raw material requirements, thereby providing an additional stimulus for iron ore imports. Looking ahead to April, the direct impact of the Middle Eastern situation on China's aggregate iron ore import volumes is anticipated to remain relatively constrained. However, should the regional conflict fail to de-escalate substantively within the month, international dry bulk vessels may continue to bypass Middle Eastern ports for transshipment, inadvertently resulting in China passively absorbing additional cargoes from alternative origins. Additionally, as major overseas mining projects progressively advance, global iron ore supply remains generally accommodative. Dispatches, spearheaded by the Simandou project—which boasts an estimated annual output of 20 million tonnes—are projected to generate a moderate uplift in iron ore shipments directed towards China in April. From a cyclical perspective, the second quarter conventionally represents a traditional peak season for iron ore dispatches. Synthesising these multifaceted variables, we project that Chinese iron ore import volumes will exhibit a tangible upward trajectory throughout April.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 104.743 million mt of iron ore and concentrates in March 2026, an increase of 7.375 million mt MoM, up 7.6% MoM; cumulative imports of iron ore and concentrates from January to March totaled 314.762 million mt, up 10.5% YoY. Beyond fundamental factors, geopolitical conflicts also contributed to the increase in iron ore imports in March to a certain extent. Specifically, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East severely disrupted commercial shipping along the Strait of Hormuz. Although direct exports from the Middle East to China were relatively small, the disruption to the global logistics system caused by regional conflicts forced some vessels originally planned to transit through the Middle East or pass through those waters to reroute. These resources were redirected to East Asian markets including China. In addition, as domestic blast furnace capacity utilization rates gradually improved in March, the steel industry's demand for ore further increased, thereby stimulating iron ore imports. Looking ahead to April, although the direct impact of the Middle East situation on China's total iron ore imports is relatively limited, if the Middle East conflict fails to achieve substantive de-escalation within the month, some international bulk carriers are likely to continue avoiding Middle Eastern ports for transshipment, resulting in China passively receiving more cargoes from other regions to a certain extent. Furthermore, as large-scale ex-China mining projects progressively advance, global ore supply remains generally ample, and shipments led by Simandou (estimated at 20 million mt for the full year) are expected to bring a certain degree of uplift to iron ore supply exported to China in April. From a seasonal perspective, Q2 is typically the traditional peak shipping season for iron ore. Therefore, taking all the above factors into consideration, China's iron ore imports in April are expected to show a certain growth trend.

[SHFE and LME Aluminum Indicators Strengthen Across the Board, Geopolitical Risks Dominate Short-Term Market] Overall, from a macro perspective, risks of strait transit restrictions and conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, China's aluminum ingot inventory buildup exceeding expectations, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation from recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably dragged on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs.

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[Solid Geopolitical Support, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs] Overall, from a macro perspective, restricted strait transit and risks of conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, above-expectation aluminum ingot inventory buildup in China, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation driven by recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably weighed on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at highs.