SMM July 2 News: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated on Wednesday that US inflation upside risks have clearly cooled over the past four weeks, easing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes; he also indicated that no further forward guidance would be released on subsequent interest rate policy, refusing to disclose whether the US Fed needs to consider a rate hike at its next meeting; the US dollar weakened, and precious metals rebounded. As of around 16:09 on July 2, COMEX gold dropped 0.11% to $4,077.9/ounce; SHFE gold main contract rose 1.53% to 890.66 yuan/g; COMEX silver dropped 1.1% to $59.845/ounce; SHFE silver main contract rose 1.91% to 14,650 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 2.95% to 14,551 yuan/kg. In the precious metals stock market, as of the close on July 2, the precious metals sector rose 4.21%, with individual stocks: Zhaojin Gold and Chifeng Gold hit their daily limit up, while Shanjin International, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Western Gold led the gains. News [Warsh: Inflation Eases Over Past Four Weeks, AI Is Reshaping Economy, Forward Guidance Loses Necessity] On July 1, at the ECB's annual central bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh again clearly stated that the US Fed would not provide forward guidance on the future interest rate path , hoping that policymakers can engage in thorough discussions based on the latest data at each meeting, rather than previewing the policy direction to the market in advance. He said that US inflation risks had eased over the past four weeks, and the supply expansion brought by AI could profoundly change how the economy operates, with the US at the center of this transformation, but whether AI ultimately leads to inflation or deflation should be judged by the central bank based on data. Warsh said the US Fed is “charting a new path” and will no longer hint at the direction of interest rates in advance as it did in the past. He said: “We will hold our next meeting in four weeks, and I hope we can have a real family-style debate then.” He reiterated that forward guidance is not the right policy in the current economic situation, and the US Fed will continue to base its decisions on the latest economic data in the future, rather than committing to a policy path in advance. This means that the US Fed will rely more on real-time economic data rather than sending policy signals to the market in advance. Spot Market Silver In the spot market: On July 2, the reference average factory price of SMM 1# silver in the morning was 14,558 yuan/kg, up 3.35% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, overall offers remained firm early in the month, but transaction follow-through was slightly weak, and consumption performance fell short of expectations. As silver prices rebounded slightly, downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensified. In Shanghai, morning offers were mainly at TD+5 to +15 yuan/kg. Some smelters quoted on the high side, but actual buying interest was weak, with most deals clustered around TD+10 yuan/kg. In other regions, low-priced cargoes had basically been cleared, while offers in Shenzhen were mostly around TD+5-10 yuan/kg. Today, the market quoted premiums for the SHFE most-traded contract 2608 at a discount of 30 to 20 yuan/kg. Overall, a slight cooling in rate-hike expectations provided some support for precious metals prices. At the start of the month, the spot direction remained unclear. Maintenance at copper plants last month caused a slight disruption on the supply side, and offers generally maintained a slight premium structure. Views From Various Parties Regarding the outlook for precious metals, some institutions’ views are as follows: On July 1, the World Gold Council released the “2026 Mid-Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market.” Looking ahead to H2, gold’s valuation framework indicated that gold will continue to serve as a barometer of the global macro economy, with three main possible scenarios. From current levels, gold prices were broadly in line with market consensus: the market expected the US Fed to raise rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank were all set to tighten policy; and US Q2 inflation was expected to peak, near $3.9. If there were no major changes in the above environment, gold prices may trade around $4,100/oz within the year, with a fluctuation range of about ±5. If geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or if interest-rate expectations shift, gold is expected to regain its upward momentum; however, only sufficiently strong signals of a global economic slowdown would be likely to drive a breakout to the upside. On the downside, a stronger US dollar, rate hikes exceeding expectations, and a rebound in market risk appetite were the main headwinds for gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000/oz, it may trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall by more than 10% from current levels, it may trigger “buy-the-dip” demand from long-term investors in multiple regions. State Street Investment Management said that, as the opportunity cost of holding gold and heightened volatility weighed on investor sentiment, bullish gold trades had been weak, and spot gold prices repeatedly tested the $4,000/oz support level. State Street believed that, although gold prices may be more volatile than in 2024-2025, the gold bull-cycle still has upside room, and the US Fed’s hawkish policy shift was expected not to change gold’s post-pandemic structural trend. State Street noted, “Since the US-Iran conflict, China’s retail gold imports have surged, and local premiums have risen in tandem, reflecting tightening fundamentals in China’s gold supply-demand balance.”State Street expects that over the next six to nine months gold prices could rise to the $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce range, with strong support in the $3,750 to $4,000 per ounce area. However, compared with the macro environment from January to February, the probability of gold prices reaching $5,500 to $6,250 per ounce is relatively small. (Zhitong Finance) State Street Investment Management strategists noted in a report that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by early 2027, as the gold bull cycle remains persistent. They believe that as U.S. government debt rises, gold's role as a currency hedge is expected to be supported, while actual demand for gold remains strong. Global gold fund holdings (as a share of global mutual fund and exchange-traded fund assets) currently remain below State Street's target allocation of 3% to 10% for most portfolios. Moreover, they added that a hawkish pivot by the Fed should not alter gold’s structural post-pandemic trend. State Street expects base bullion prices to rise to $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce in the next six to nine months. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank said, "The market has not yet attracted enough buying interest to establish that level as a support level." They also pointed out, "Even though energy prices have pulled back recently, investors still expect the Fed may further tighten monetary policy to combat an inflation rebound, and as a result, gold prices fell 14% in Q2, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013." (Jinshi Data APP) CICC's latest research report pointed out that gold may have already overpriced rate hike expectations. Fed rate hikes are still not the base case, and the gold market may have overly priced in rate hike expectations, leaving room for a pullback this year. CICC's macro team believes that employment and consumption pressures, along with the expanding financing needs of the U.S. AI economy, may make it difficult for the Fed to materially turn hawkish, and monetary policy may be "hawkish in words but dovish in action." Based on the implied interest rate expectations model from gold prices, it is estimated that the current gold price around $4,000 per ounce has fully priced in three to four rate hikes, exceeding the rate hike expectations priced in by the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after the decline in oil prices is further reflected in U.S. short-term inflation data, the gold market's pricing of rate hike expectations may be corrected, and futures market short-term funds may have opportunities to cover short positions. (Jinshi Data APP) Li Xunlei, Deputy Director of the China Chief Economist Forum, pointed out that gold's long-term trend exhibits long bear markets and short bull markets. Since 1971, 30 years have been bear markets and 25 years have been bull markets, but each bull market has seen gains of over fivefold. A bull market typically lasts around 10 years. This gold bull run has now lasted nearly 10 years, with prices tripling during that time, so caution is warranted at this stage. (Jin10 Data App) Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said the bank has cut its Q3 gold price forecast by over 20% to $4,300/oz and lowered its Q4 forecast by 17% to $4,800/oz. "Potential investors who would normally provide support are notably absent," he said, pointing to weak demand for exchange-traded funds and reduced buying appetite in some countries. (Jin10 Data App) Macquarie said profit-taking weighed on silver prices last month, and price action is once again driven by macro factors amid rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. Similar to gold, silver prices are expected to move sideways for the rest of the year, then gradually decline into 2027, with inflationary pressures and the likelihood of further US Fed rate hikes limiting upside room. The higher inflation and bond yields, the greater the downward pressure. Silver, in particular, has been more susceptible to a pullback after outperforming gold, driven by bullish sentiment fueled by supply tightens, low inventory, and strong demand. Historically, silver pullbacks tend to be rapid. Macquarie expects silver to trade at $70/oz in Q4 this year and pull back to $65/oz by the end of 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) Recommended reads:

SMM News, June 30: In the metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market generally fell. SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 2.13%, SHFE lead fell 1.02%, SHFE zinc fell 0.16%, SHFE tin edged up, and SHFE nickel fell 1.8%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.41%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.56%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 4.82%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.8%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.2%, HRC edged up, rebar fell 0.13%, and stainless steel fell 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.55%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.18%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.24%, LME aluminum edged up, LME lead fell 0.18%, LME zinc fell 0.19%, LME tin rose 0.44%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.48%, COMEX silver fell 1.19%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 2.67%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.16%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 3.29%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract was flat at 290.65 yuan/g. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 1.7% to 3,662.5 points. As of 11:36 on June 30, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot mainstream traded at 24,030-24,250 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 24,220-24,530 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded around 24,100-24,240 yuan/mt, Zijin against the 2608 contract reported a discount of around 30-40 yuan/mt, Huxin quoted at 25,090 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot against the 2608 contract reported a discount of around 50-100 yuan/mt, Tianjin market versus Shanghai market reported a discount of around 40 yuan/mt. Today contract rollover quotations... Macro Front Domestic side: [National Bureau of Statistics: June manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's economic prosperity level rebounded somewhat] According to NBS data, in June, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory. By enterprise size, large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, still above the threshold; medium-sized enterprises' PMI was 50.5%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, above the threshold; small enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, down 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, below the threshold. From the sub-indexes perspective, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new orders index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. Huo Lihui, chief statistician of the Service Survey Center at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on China's PMI for June 2026: In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a rebound in non-manufacturing activity. The expansion in the services sector accelerated. The services business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in activity. By industry, business activity indexes for sectors such as telecommunication, radio and television, and satellite transmission services; internet, software, and information technology services; monetary and financial services; and insurance were all in the higher expansion zone above 55.0%, with relatively rapid growth in business volume. The indexes for air transport and real estate remained below the threshold. The services business activity expectations index was 56.0%, up 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating improving expectations among enterprises regarding market development. The construction sector saw some improvement. The construction business activity index was 49.0%, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, a marginal rebound. The construction business activity expectations index was 51.1%, continuing to indicate expansion. [PBOC conducts 669.5 billion yuan reverse repo in open market, net withdrawal of 155 billion yuan for the day] The PBOC conducted a 69.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today, with an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from before. Today, 524.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repos mature. At the same time, the PBOC conducted a 600 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation, and today 300 billion yuan overnight reverse repos mature. On the US dollar front: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 101.31. The US Supreme Court blocked Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook; the move was a forceful rebuke to the president's attack on the world's most important central bank. The 5-4 ruling is the latest major check on the Trump administration by the Supreme Court. Earlier this year, the court also ruled that the president does not have the authority to impose tariffs using emergency powers, a decision that shook a key pillar of the Trump administration's economic policy. The ruling released on Monday rejected the first-ever attempt by a US president to remove a Fed governor; critics have warned that such a move would undermine the central bank's independence. However, on Monday the US Supreme Court also cleared the way for Trump to fire Federal Trade Commission (FTC) members without cause; a move that grants the White House greater power and tightens control over independent regulatory agencies. According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, and that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 29.9%. For September, the probability of unchanged rates is 37.2%, that of a 25bp cumulative hike is 48.8%, and that of a 50bp hike is 14.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today’s releases include the US FHFA House Price Index MoM for April, the US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index NSA YoY for April, the US Chicago PMI for June, the US JOLTS Job Openings for May, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June, the UK Q1 GDP YoY Final, the UK Q1 Current Account, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s June CPI MoM Preliminary, France’s June CPI MoM Preliminary, Switzerland’s June KOF Economic Barometer, Canada’s April GDP MoM, Japan’s May unemployment rate, and other data. Also, watch for: ECB President Lagarde delivers opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, and the US and Iran hold technical negotiations. It is also worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with northbound and southbound trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange will be closed for Canada Day. Other currencies: The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting showed the bank believed monetary policy needed to remain tight to eliminate surplus demand in the economy. As the minutes were compiled before Brent crude prices fell more than 10% last week, the hawkish tone reflected in them has become notably disconnected from current market moves. Currently, the market is pricing in only 10bp of further tightening by year-end, while the probability of easing by 2027 stands at 17bp. The tension for the Australian dollar lies in that, on one hand, the RBA clearly stated it is prepared to hike again if needed; on the other, the market believes rates have likely peaked. If upcoming data confirms that weaker oil prices are gradually feeding through to inflation expectations, the Australian dollar could face a repricing. Meanwhile, falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne are adding to domestic growth risks and could reinforce the market’s dovish repricing, even as the RBA board’s rhetoric remains distinctly hawkish.((Jinshi Data APP) Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.27% and Brent down 0.15%. The market was focused on possible talks between the US and Iran. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran’s top priority at that time was to ensure the implementation of all provisions of the memorandum of understanding. With regard to Article 10 of the memorandum concerning the US commitment to allow Iranian oil exports, the US side had already issued the necessary permits, and Iran was following up on the implementation progress. As for Article 11 regarding the unfreezing of Iranian assets, the relevant implementation procedures were also progressing. This week, Iran would send a technical delegation to Qatar for consultations on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, including Article 11. The spokesperson said that Iran had not yet initiated negotiations on a final agreement. According to Article 13 of the memorandum, the precondition for initiating final agreement negotiations was the commencement and continued implementation of Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11. Furthermore, the spokesperson stressed that there would be no negotiations at any level between Iran and the US in the coming days. The trip by US representatives to Qatar was unrelated to the Iranian technical delegation’s visit; the Iranian delegation’s purpose in going to Qatar was to follow up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, including Article 11. (CCTV) According to trade sources and a document, Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) had sharply reduced its official selling prices to attract long-term buyers to lift Basrah crude from its terminals in the Middle East Gulf in July. The discount for Basrah Medium was $14 to $16 per barrel, and for Basrah Heavy, it was $16.8 to $18.8 per barrel, depending on the loading date. Discounts were larger for loadings from July 1 to 5, and smaller for loadings from July 6 to 10, and from July 11 to 31. SOMO said that buyers needed to submit their order quantities within one day of receiving the notification letter. Trade sources said that the steep discounts might attract buyers, but it remained to be seen whether passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible. (Jinshi Data APP) According to data from the US Department of Energy (DOE), crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983. The inventory decline was part of a US agreement to release 172 million barrels of crude from the reserve to fill a gap in global inventories following the Iran conflict and help push down fuel prices. US crude inventories fell rapidly in recent weeks due to strong crude exports and refining demand. From the outbreak of the conflict in late February to June 19, total US inventories, including commercial stocks and the SPR, had fallen by 111.4 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels, the lowest level since 1984. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 27 News: Metals market: Last Friday’s overnight session saw nearly all base metals on the domestic market rise. SHFE zinc gained 2.16%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.81%, and SHFE tin advanced 1.66%. SHFE nickel increased 0.36%. SHFE lead dipped 0.37%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract climbed 0.64%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 1.66%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw mostly gains in ferrous metals. Stainless steel added 0.48%, iron ore rose 0.54%, and rebar slipped 0.1%. Hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,312 yuan/mt. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract gained 1.13%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.21%. Last Friday’s overnight session in overseas metals saw broad gains for LME base metals. LME copper edged up. LME aluminum rose 0.39%, while LME lead fell 0.58%. LME zinc gained 1.8%. LME tin advanced 1.69%. LME nickel dipped 0.36%. Last Friday’s overnight session in precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.37%, but COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 3.37% for the week; COMEX silver gained 1.37%, while COMEX silver fell for a seventh straight week, down 10.79% for the week. Last Friday’s overnight session saw the most-traded SHFE gold contract rise 1.34%, but SHFE gold declined on a weekly basis, down 6.33% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 2.61%, while SHFE silver declined on a weekly basis, down 15.23% for the week. Macquarie strategists noted that all eyes are currently on the trajectory of inflation and whether central banks, particularly the US Fed, will tighten policy to control prices. The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, combined with a more hawkish Fed stance, has led to a pullback in gold prices. The first meeting under new Fed Chair Walsh struck a “hawkish” tone, with the central bank under his leadership having the capacity to either “drive or suppress” the gold market. The shock from the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in Q3, after which an eventual rebound in global growth and the start of a monetary easing cycle should push gold prices lower, as more investor funds rotate out of precious metals and into other assets. Investors have been taking profits and rotating into equities, which has created room for re-entry into precious metals and could drive a price rebound, but a significant macro event may be needed to reignite investor interest in gold. Spot gold prices are forecast to average $4,641 in 2026, up 35% YoY, but the average price is expected to decline 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027, followed by yearly declines through 2030. The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast to $4,300 from $4,400. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 7:46 a.m. on June 27, closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session: Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Profits of China’s industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% in January–May, with the electronics sector providing significant support] Data from the NBS showed that total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 3,143.96 billion yuan in January–May, up 18.8% YoY. From January to May, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1,048.66 billion yuan, up 19.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2,434.81 billion yuan, up 24.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and those funded by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investors realized total profits of 695.72 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY; and private enterprises realized total profits of 772.65 billion yuan, up 10.7% YoY. Yu Weining, chief statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises for January–May 2026. Yu Weining noted that the electronics sector played a significant supporting role. From January to May, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.1% YoY, boosting the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 5.2 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the global AI technology revolution has led to explosive demand for high-end computing power chips and memory chips, driving rapid profit growth in the electronics sector. From January to May, profits of the electronics industry surged 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size, making it a crucial underpinning for the relatively rapid profit growth of these enterprises. [Series of 7 National Standards for "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" Released] At a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), it was announced that the series of national standards "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" has been officially released. With the rapid iteration of technologies such as large models, artificial intelligence is accelerating from the stage of perception and understanding into a new phase of generative decision-making and autonomous execution. An agent, as an intelligent system with capabilities in autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction, and execution, represents an important application form of next-generation AI. It is also a key vehicle for AI technology to empower diverse industries and underpin high-quality development of the intelligent economy. The seven national standards in the "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" series released this time comprehensively cover core aspects including overall architecture, identity codes, identity management, agent description, agent discovery, agent interaction, and agent tool invocation. They systematically establish a closed-loop standards framework encompassing "identity identification—capability description—supply-demand discovery—collaborative interaction—tool invocation," effectively filling the standard gap in this field. With unified architecture and interaction rules established through these standards, enterprises can reuse standardized components, reduce customized development, and shorten time-to-market. At the same time, they lay an institutional foundation for cross-domain trustworthiness and secure interaction by establishing unified identity authentication and full traceability mechanisms. (CCTV News) The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice to solicit public opinions on the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products (Draft for Comments)." (From Wall Street CN APP) [Three Departments: Further Improve Work Related to Collection of Mineral Rights Transfer Proceeds] The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, and State Taxation Administration have issued a notice on further improving the collection of mineral rights transfer proceeds, clarifying that late payment penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will no longer be collected starting August 1, 2026. If a mining rights holder fails to pay the mineral rights transfer proceeds in full and on time, a penalty of 0.2% per day will be charged from the date of default, with the total penalty not exceeding the principal amount owed. Penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will be recorded under the mineral rights transfer proceeds category and shared between central and local governments according to the same proportion as mineral rights transfer proceeds. Late payment penalties that have already accrued before the implementation of this notice shall continue to be paid in accordance with previous regulations, and penalty charges will not apply. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.1% last Friday, closing at 101.36. On a weekly basis, the dollar index recorded its second consecutive weekly gain, rising 0.6% for the week. US Treasury yields and the dollar edged lower as oil prices declined and the market reassessed the US interest rate outlook. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of one rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the chance of a second hike has dropped to 28% from 34% a week ago as inflation expectations cool. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, set to be released at 10 a.m. US Eastern Time (10 p.m. Beijing Time), is expected to rise from 44.8 to 49. (Jinshi Data APP) Reuters Poll: 78 of 102 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in 2026, compared with 72 of 102 economists who held this view in the early June survey. Artem Sakhbiev, FX strategist at BCA Research, said in a report that the recent rebound in the US dollar appears somewhat overextended and lacks the support needed to break out of the trading range of the past year. The Fed revised its interest rate projections upward at last week's meeting and explicitly focused on inflation. This led to a significant rise in inflation-adjusted real yields and eased concerns about political pressure for rate cuts, thereby boosting the dollar. However, this move now appears largely exhausted. The Fed is likely to hold rates steady, and the spread between short- and long-term yields could widen. (Jinshi Data APP) According to Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed mouthpiece," sources say the search for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. The initial list of candidates failed to yield a final selection, forcing the bank to restart the selection process, which has now lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a minor procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. Reserve Bank presidents are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid influence from Washington politics. (Jin10 Data App) Fed official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed economic forecasts released earlier this month. Rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. In a media interview on Friday, Kashkari said: "I am concerned about inflation, not just related to the Middle East situation, but signs of broader inflationary pressures in the economy." The Iran war pushed up oil prices, and prices rose across many categories. This has intensified concerns among some Fed officials that inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent, potentially requiring stronger action from the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed the May PCE annual rate came in at 4.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the dot plot forecasts released by the Fed last week, half of the officials who submitted dot plot projections expected at least one rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data App) The US goods trade deficit widened to its highest level in over a year in May, as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the goods trade deficit expanded 27.4% from the previous month to $105.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $85 billion. US goods exports fell 5.4% in May, dragged down mainly by declines in multiple categories, including shipments of industrial supplies. This category covers crude oil and petroleum products. Over the same period, imports rose 3.6%. (From Wall Street CN APP) In other currency news: As London experiences record-breaking heat, Bank of England officials are starting to worry that weather could become the next shock driving up inflation, just as the previous supply shock is fading. Climate scientists increasingly expect a strong El Niño event to form later this year into 2027, disrupting global weather patterns. Now, economists are also concerned this could trigger a new round of supply shocks, push up food inflation, and once again frustrate global central banks' efforts to fight inflation. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, US June Dallas Fed business activity index, Japan May unemployment rate, China June official manufacturing PMI, UK Q1 GDP annual rate final, UK Q1 current account, France June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Switzerland June KOF economic leading indicator, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Canada April GDP monthly rate, US April FHFA house price index monthly rate, US April S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS job openings, US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France June manufacturing PMI final, Germany June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI final, UK June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate preliminary, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending monthly rate, Switzerland June CPI monthly rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, US June average hourly earnings monthly rate, US May factory orders monthly rate, China June RatingDog services PMI, France May industrial output monthly rate, France June services PMI final, Germany June services PMI final, Eurozone June services PMI final, UK June services PMI final, and other data. Additionally, this week, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivering a speech; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra through July 1; the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference taking place from June 29 to 30; ECB President Lagarde speaking in Sintra; the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; the US and Iran holding technical negotiations (to be confirmed); Fed Chairman Walsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking at the ECB Forum; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy; and a new round of domestic refined oil product price adjustments opening in China. It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Market was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both Northbound and Southbound trading shut. On July 3, the US-NYSE was closed for the US Independence Day holiday; trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts ended early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday; trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts ended early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday. In crude oil: Both oil futures fell in overnight trading last Friday, with US oil dropping 2.34% and Brent oil dropping 2.52%. On a weekly basis, US oil futures recorded a three-week losing streak, falling 7.4% for the week; Brent oil futures also fell for a third straight week, dropping 8.06% for the week. Brent spot crude oil prices fell back to pre-war levels, and the near-month contracts exhibited a contango structure—where near-term prices are lower than those further out—for seven consecutive days, reflecting a temporary oversupply. Tariq Zahir, a managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, indicated that oil prices had "dropped too fast, too furiously," the ceasefire agreement remained fragile, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was still fraught with variables, so fluctuations were expected to persist. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' One-Delta business, pointed out that Iran had begun a show of force near the Strait of Hormuz, some cargo ships had altered their routes, and the inventory overhang in the Gulf region was gradually flowing into the market. He believed that while the probability of a significant near-term price rise in crude oil was limited, the basis for a further substantial drop from current prices was equally insufficient. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US natural gas drilling rig additions recorded the largest single-week increase in four years. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs operated by US energy enterprises reached 440 last week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, up from 433 the previous week. Active natural gas drilling rigs rose to 573, recording the largest gain since June 2022, compared with the prior figure of 563. (From Wall Street Cn APP) A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US refining capacity decreased by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decline of 1.43%. This was primarily driven by the planned conversion of a major refinery in Houston and the closure of a refinery in the Los Angeles area due to market dynamics, which is known for strict environmental regulations. Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, maintained its position as the largest US refiner with a total refining capacity of 2.986 million bpd, accounting for 16.4% of the nation’s total capacity. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Furthermore, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil stated that OPEC has begun to gradually restore Iraq’s pre-war production quota, a move which will strengthen Iraq’s output capabilities and support the recovery of the oil sector. A high-level consensus has been reached within OPEC, fully taking into account Iraq’s past special circumstances and current actual needs. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Barclays said it has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts, cutting the 2026 estimate from $100 per barrel to $96, and the 2027 estimate from $88 to $85, citing the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded substantially, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. However, this normalization process remains incomplete. The bank noted that Iran’s assertion of control through fee impositions and coordination mechanisms has created frictions and may potentially delay a full recovery. A temporary deal reached last week aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran has allowed traffic on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to resume. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Recommended Reading:

SMM June 26 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE tin rose 0.91%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.17%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc fell 0.12%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.17%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract fell 0.44%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Iron ore fell 1.08%, rebar fell 0.61%, HRC fell 0.48%, and stainless steel rose 1.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1%. Overnight LME base metals posted near across-the-board gains. LME copper rose 2.22%. LME aluminum rose 2.26%. LME lead edged lower. LME zinc rose 0.88%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.82%, and COMEX silver fell 0.34%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose 1.17%, and SHFE silver rose 1.24%. As of 7:09 a.m. on June 26, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: [Two departments: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New-Type Energy System." The main objectives are: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030. Raise overall energy production capacity to 5.8 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent, comprehensively enhance the complementary and mutual support capabilities and security resilience of the power system, and achieve diversified and controllable energy imports; coal and oil consumption will peak, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, wind and solar installed capacity will exceed 50%, becoming the mainstay of installed power capacity, and non-fossil energy power generation will account for 50% of the total, becoming the dominant source of electricity; accelerate building a resilient, green, low-carbon, integrated, smart and efficient new-type energy infrastructure system and initially complete a new-type power system; achieve overall independent controllability of key technological equipment across the energy industry chain, and rank among the world's leading countries in energy technology innovation; accelerate the improvement of market and pricing mechanisms suited to the new-type energy system, and basically establish a unified national electricity market system. US dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.11% to 101.46. As US data sent mixed signals and oil prices fell below pre-war levels, the decline in energy costs is expected to cool future inflation, and the dollar declined. (Jinshi Data APP) Driven by the Middle East conflict which pushed up energy prices, US inflation edged higher in May, with the annual PCE rate breaking above 4% for the first time in three years, potentially bringing the Fed closer to raising interest rates this year. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the US PCE price index rose 4.1% YoY in May, the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023. The US-led war against Iran pushed up oil prices, which in turn drove gasoline prices higher. Although crude oil and gasoline prices have pulled back in recent weeks after a fragile ceasefire was reached, economists expect inflation to remain elevated for some time. And even before the latest conflict, consumers were already grappling with higher prices triggered by Trump's sweeping import tariffs. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range last week, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers are expected to raise rates this year amid heightened inflation concerns. Financial markets are betting on a rate increase as early as September, potentially followed by another hike. According to CME's FedWatch tool: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 31%. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady by September is 36.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike 48.8%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 14.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the final estimate for Q1 GDP showed an annualized growth rate of 2.1%, revised up by 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate and far above economists' expectations. This final reading markedly outperformed the earlier second estimate of 1.6% and was also above the initial 2.0% pace published by the department. Markets had expected the final figure to be basically flat compared to the second estimate. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a sharp acceleration in business investment—likely fueled by an AI investment boom—was the key driver of the upward revision, with expanding exports and shrinking imports also providing a favorable backdrop. Yet the headline numbers also masked concerns over domestic demand. A key gauge of the economy's internal growth momentum—final sales to domestic private purchasers—was revised down by 0.7 percentage points from the second estimate to 1.7%; consumer spending also decelerated notably from Q4 2025 and from the previous estimate, underscoring pressure on household consumption. New York Fed President John Williams said the current monetary policy stance is effective in suppressing inflation, but numerous risks remain and rates are expected to stay unchanged in the near term. Williams said on Thursday that inflation is "undeniably high," and the current rate stance is "well positioned" to guide inflation back toward the 2% long-run target. He expects inflation to ease to 3.5% by the end of this year, then continue to decline along a "glide path" and reach the 2% target in 2028. (Wall Street CN) On the macro front: Today will see the release of the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June and the final one-year inflation expectations for June, among others. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers a speech; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivers a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures gained, with WTI rising 1.61% and Brent rising 1.65%. Oil prices, which had rapidly pulled back following the Iran ceasefire, came under renewed pressure from fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz. As noted by Wall Street CN, reports said Iran proposed charging a transit fee for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and US Secretary of State Rubio promptly responded that such a move would "set an unacceptable precedent." Notably, inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, have fallen to about 19 million barrels, below the level considered the operational minimum. Nevertheless, prices remain far below pre-Iran-war levels, and near-dated futures contracts are still in bearish contango. (Wall Street CN) According to Xinhua News Agency, the United Nations maritime regulator, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), announced on Thursday that a ship was attacked in the Gulf of Oman the same day, and the organization decided to suspend evacuation operations for vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to further verify whether related security measures remain effective. Market sources said: crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; over the three days ending Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM, June 25: Metal markets: As of the noon close, base metals on the domestic market fell across the board, with SHFE copper down 1.82%, SHFE aluminum down 2.75%, SHFE lead down 0.7%, SHFE zinc down 1.64%, SHFE nickel down 0.92%, and SHFE tin down 1.76%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 2.08%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.29%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.33%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with only stainless steel down 0.75%. Iron ore rose 0.2%, rebar rose 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. In the coking coal and coke segment: the most-traded coking coal contract inched up 0.08%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.28%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.82%, LME aluminum rose 0.24%, LME lead rose 0.6%, LME zinc rose 0.31%, LME tin rose 2.02%, and LME nickel rose 0.77%. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver fell 2.02%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold declined 2.81%, hitting an intraday low of 868.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 7.1%, with an intraday low of 13,560 yuan/kg. Additionally, as of the noon close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 4.39%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 3.54%. As of the noon close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe) futures fell 2.45% to 3,665.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 25, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, downstream consumption recovered somewhat after silver continued to decline. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly at TD parity to +20 yuan/kg... Macro front Domestic front: [China's power generation capacity exceeds 4 billion kW] On June 25, the National Energy Administration announced that as of the end of May 2026, China's power generation capacity reached 4.01 billion kW, ranking first globally. Non-fossil energy capacity became the absolute mainstay of capacity additions, and the energy mix continued to improve. The share of coal-fired power capacity fell from 61% in 2010 to 32% in May 2026; the share of non-fossil energy capacity rose from 25% in 2010 to 62% in May 2026; and the share of renewable energy capacity rose from 24% in 2010 to 61% in May 2026. (Xinhua) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 322.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 370.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations today. With 300 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 322.5 billion yuan. ((Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 101.51. All large US banks passed the Fed's annual stress test, paving the way for banks to boost share buybacks and dividends by tens of billions of dollars. The stress test aims to assess how Wall Street lenders would fare under hypothetical financial system shocks. Unlike in previous years, the 2026 test results will not affect capital requirements, as the Fed is continuously revising the test to make it more friendly to banks. This year's test examined how 32 large lenders would withstand a severe global shock amid greater stress in commercial and residential real estate markets and corporate debt markets. The hypothetical scenario included a severe global recession, a 39% drop in commercial real estate prices, and a 30% decline in residential prices. The unemployment rate also surged to a peak of 10%, with a corresponding decline in economic output. The regulators said, "Despite absorbing over $708 billion in loan losses under this year's hypothetical scenario, total capital fell by just 1.6 percentage points, still above the minimum capital requirement." According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 34.2%. By September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.6%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.7%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, and said no one should make dot plot forecasts. On the economy, he expects real wage growth to return to the pace seen before April and expects the economy to accelerate for the rest of the year without fueling inflation. He stressed that the dominance of the US dollar is crucial. He believes that once the situation in Ukraine is over, Russia will want to return to the dollar system, while a new Venezuela is returning to that system. During a period of rate cuts, the dollar can still remain strong, and the US is willing to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-on-year, US May personal spending month-on-month, the final reading of US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter, US May core PCE price index month-on-month, US May durable goods orders month-on-month, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Nvidia's annual shareholder meeting; the Bank of Canada's release of monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Federal Reserve's release of annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's attendance at a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Micron Technology's fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings call; and 300 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges continued to decline, extending losses from the previous three trading days, with WTI falling 1.69% and Brent falling 1.53%. Oil prices pulled back their wartime gains on Thursday as the market bet on improving global crude supply, with tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months beginning to sail out of the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from maritime analytics firm Kpler, more than 20 tankers carrying approximately 35 million barrels of crude oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since a US-Iran agreement reopened this critical shipping lane. These non-Iranian tankers had been stuck in the Persian Gulf for over three months after Tehran effectively blockaded the waterway early in the conflict. Most of these tankers are expected to arrive at Asian destinations by early August. Citigroup stated that the worst may be over for commodity futures carry trade strategies, which suffered massive losses during the US-Iran war as short positions in near-month contracts were hit hard by soaring prices, while long positions in forward contracts were bought. Citi noted that the current base case is for significant de-escalation, and predicts that as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes, Brent crude prices will fall to $60-$65 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

From June 3 to June 5, the Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting more than 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 150+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Conference Background In the process of global industrial upgrading, the strategic value of critical metals has become increasingly prominent, and Southeast Asia has gradually emerged as a highly dynamic segment of the global mining landscape. As a major regional mineral producer, Indonesia has successively introduced multiple industrial policies for critical metals such as nickel, tin, aluminum, and copper, adjusting and optimizing areas including mining quotas, pricing mechanisms, tax policies, export management, and domestic market obligation over recent years. These efforts are guided by the goals of strengthening the regulatory framework, enhancing industrial added value, and optimizing resource revenues, and have had a significant impact on the global metal supply chain and market dynamics. As Indonesia’s premier flagship event for the mineral industry, this conference focuses on supply chain security of critical minerals including nickel, cobalt and tin, and adopts a dual-driven model of mining and energy. It commits to promoting Indonesia’s industrial upgrading from raw material export to high-value industrial chain development, while providing solid resource support and practical cooperation paradigms for regional and global energy transition. 》Click to view the photo gallery of the conference June 3: Main Forum Opening Ceremony Adam Fan, Chairman, Shanghai Metals Market Nanan Soekarna, Chairman, APNI Arif Havas Oegroseno, Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ciyong Zou, Deputy to the Director General and Managing Director of the Directorate of Technical Cooperation and Sustainable Industrial Development, UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) Sherly Tjoanda, Governor of North Maluku, North Maluku Government Todotua Pasaribu, Vice Minister, Ministry of Investment and Downstream Industry of Indonesia Drum Performance & Dance Show Opening Address Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Adam stated that this year marks the 4th year of the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference. This flagship industry event is dedicated to building a global platform connecting Indonesia with the world. Empowering mineral resources through technology, the conference links producers and consumers to facilitate industrial chain and business cooperation. Boasting a record-high attendance, this year’s event gathers 3,500+ participants and 150+ speakers. The growing participation of global countries, enterprises and industry professionals demonstrates rising international trust and confidence in Indonesia’s critical mineral ecosystem. As cross-border collaboration is essential for building a robust global critical minerals supply chain, the conference strives to enhance supply chain transparency, interconnectivity and in-depth global industrial cooperation by bringing together industry insights and resources. Speaker: Nanan Soekarna, Chairman of APNI Nanan Soekarna stated in his remarks that the 4th Indonesia Critical Minerals was the largest to date in terms of attendance, demonstrating the global industry’s full confidence in Indonesia’s minerals industry, cross-border cooperation models, and Indonesia’s roadmap for sustainable mining development, and he extended his sincere gratitude to all participating partners. He noted that the core of development in the critical minerals sector has shifted from a simple contest of resources and capacity to the transformation of the sustainable value of natural resources, balancing diverse economic, social, and environmental benefits. By deepening downstream industry chain expansion, Indonesia aims both to enhance industrial value-added and to strengthen Indonesia's industrial positioning international and credibility in the global market. In the future, the core of global mining competition will not lie in resource reserves, but in transparent, responsible, and sustainable resource governance capabilities. Relying on global partners, Indonesia will uphold the philosophy of sustainable mining development and, through high-quality cooperation and shared value principles, work together to build the future of the critical minerals industry that balances ecology, benefits, and long-term development. Speaker: Arif Havas Oegroseno, Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Arif Havas Oegroseno mentioned that critical minerals are increasingly becoming a focal point of global geopolitical competition, with elements such as energy, minerals, and trade and economic rules being instrumentalized from time to time. Leveraging its domestic resource endowments, Indonesia is vigorously advancing downstream deep processing of minerals; this strategy is not limited to industrial upgrading, but is also a comprehensive development initiative that boosts employment, consolidates science and technology innovation capabilities, enhances industry chain resilience, and delivers inclusive gains from green development. In response to procurement demands from multiple parties, Indonesia adheres to a diversified cooperation approach by expanding a diverse range of procurement partners and promoting deeper participation by resource countries in technology R&D and industry chain value-added, thereby avoiding the risks of dependence on a single partnership. He also noted that for the future governance of critical minerals, ESG should truly become a competitive advantage for enterprises rather than a trade barrier, with its original purpose being to optimize environmental management, improve social responsibility, and empower enterprises to enhance quality and efficiency. In the face of a new round of industrial transformation, critical minerals serve as the core raw materials for energy transition, the digital economy, and the development of high-tech industries. Based on its resource endowment, Indonesia is determined to transform from a mineral resource producer into a reliable partner in the global industry chain and a co-builder of industry rules. It invites global investors, industry chain producers, and resource-producing countries to join hands, uphold the spirit of partnership, reject unreasonable additional conditions, and jointly build a new global pattern for critical minerals that is inclusive and universally beneficial. Keynote Speech: Investing in Critical Minerals Downstreaming: Unlocking the Full Value of Indonesia's Resources Guest Speaker: Todotua Pasaribu, Vice Minister, Ministry of Investment and Downstream Industry of Indonesia Todotua Pasaribu stated that against the backdrop of climbing global demand for critical minerals and concentrated resource origins, the strategic attributes of this category continue to stand out. Indonesia, leveraging its resource endowment, vigorously promotes the downstream transformation of the entire industry chain, which is a core national policy to boost the economy and optimize supply chain structures. Under the president's policy deployment, Indonesia has designated mineral deep processing as a pillar of industrial upgrading. The authorities have delineated 28 categories of strategic minerals across eight major sectors and estimated potential investment in related tracks at approximately $618 billion, which is expected to create 3 million new jobs annually upon implementation. The country has set investment attraction targets from 2024 to 2029, accompanied by annual implementation plans. The 2026 target is clear, and investment implementation progress in the first quarter has been steady. In recent years, downstream industry investment has accounted for nearly 30% of national fixed asset investment, becoming a key driver to boost the economy and helping the country sprint toward the 8% economic growth target by 2029. He further explained that Indonesia has already established downstream layouts in multiple critical mineral tracks, including nickel, tin, aluminum, copper, PV raw materials, and semiconductor raw materials. The nickel industry has extended from stainless steel production to the entire power battery industry chain, while the tin, aluminum, and copper sectors continue to expand into deep processing, electronic materials, and other high-value-added categories, synchronously deploying supporting industry chains for PV and semiconductors. To solidify the conditions for industrial implementation, Indonesia has optimized the business environment in three aspects: accelerating approval processes, providing infrastructure support, and offering policy incentives. It has shortened project approval cycles, improved supporting facilities for hydropower, ports, and transportation, and implemented supportive measures such as tax reductions and tariff preferences, continuously attracting global capital and technological cooperation. This drives the country's transformation from a raw material exporter to a high-value-added product manufacturer, relying on multi-party collaboration to convert local mineral resources into sustainable industrial benefits. Guest Speaker: Ciyong Zou, Deputy to the Director General and Managing Director of the Directorate of Technical Cooperation and Sustainable Industrial Development, UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) Zou Ciyong said global demand for critical minerals continues to rise along with the rapid development of clean energy and digital industries, and the role of resource countries in ensuring stable mineral supply is becoming increasingly critical. Indonesia's transformation path from raw material extraction to deep processing can provide reference for resource countries in the Global South. Currently, mining development still faces multiple challenges such as environmental protection, carbon emissions, and livelihood supporting facilities. Sustainable development has become an imperative for the industry, which needs to balance economic benefits, green development and social inclusion. Leveraging its multilateral platform advantages, UNIDO empowers its member states in multiple dimensions, including industrial policy, technology transfer, investment and financing, and capacity building, promotes the establishment of a Global Green Mining Cooperation Alliance, and has implemented a demonstration project of the Indonesia Nickel Industry Eco-Industrial Park, using the project as a model to explore a sustainable development path for global mining. He pointed out that the long-term development of the critical minerals industry cannot be separated from in-depth international cooperation, and it is necessary to establish transparent public-private partnerships, build resilient supply chains, and uniformly implement common industry standards. Indonesia intends to join forces with partners from all sectors to tap the development potential of the industry, while insisting on placing environmental protection and sustainability at the forefront of industrial development. In the future, UNIDO will continue to engage with governments, industries and capital from multiple parties, working together to achieve coordinated economic, social and environmental benefits from mineral resources. Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Beyond Volume: How North Maluku Can Lead Indonesia’s Next Phase of Sustainable Downstream Growth? Guest Speaker: Sherly Tjoanda, Governor of North Maluku Province Sherly Tjoanda elaborated on how North Maluku can lead Indonesia's next phase of sustainable downstream development from the perspectives of geographical location, transportation advantages, skilled talent reserves, and the fact that North Maluku's nickel ore is high-grade ore. Keynote Speech: Two Decades of Critical Minerals: 2016-2036 - How Supply Structures Shape Market Dynamics Guest Speaker: Shirley Wang, VP, Shanghai Metals Market The Rule —Why resource-rich nations must process, not just mine A 1931 Question: Mine Today, or Wait? Hotelling gave mining a theoretical anchor. It was elegant — and incomplete. A rational resource-based country should ensure the rate of price increase is exactly equal to the return on investment (Interest rate) Four Reasons the Real World Departs from the Formula Substitution, policy shifts, demand surprises, and costs — each bends the expected path The Quiet Force Behind All of This Ore grades decline everywhere. Building downstream is not ambition. It is adaptation. Shirley analyzed this by comparing ore grades for nickel, tin, copper, alumina, and others for the years 2016, 2026, and 2036. ► Strategic Insight: Why Low-Grade Ore Is Changing the Rules • Continuously declining grades are forcing industrial upgrading and iteration. Deteriorating raw ore quality is driving mines and smelters to optimize production, increasing the utilization of low-grade ore, the application of new processes, and the recycling of secondary resources. • Pricing power is gradually shifting from trading markets to resource-rich governments. As high-grade mineral deposits are depleted, the impact of short-term supply and demand on prices weakens, and the pace at which resource-rich nations release supply becomes the core variable. Industry Mainline: Commonalities in Two Decades of Development Across Five Metals Nickel: Where One Country Anchors the Market Indonesia influences marginal incremental nickel supply, and the commissioning pace of its domestic industry dominates global nickel price movements. The analysis incorporated the global distribution of nickel mine capacity. Cost Structures Are Moving Apart RKEF costs face the steepest climb. Scale mattered yesterday. Cost discipline matters tomorrow. The Ore Base Is Quietly Shifting Looking at changes in the global nickel production cost structure, the primary low-cost raw material was high-grade primary nickel ore before 2015. From 2016 to 2026, the share of low-grade ore and laterite nickel ore mining has been climbing steadily. Currently, laterite nickel ore stands as the most cost-competitive raw material. As laterite nickel ore grades decline, future nickel production based on sulphide ore may increase. Keynote Speech: Indonesia's Green Nickel: From Us To The Next Generation Guest Speaker: Joseph Hong, President Commissioner, Neo Energy Keynote Speech: AI is NOT optional! Guest Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Adam noted that AI has become an essential requirement for the digital upgrade of the commodity industry. Leveraging a new AI technology system, SMM integrates macro and micro data, market intelligence, and industrial information through full-process intelligent processing, and with human-machine collaboration automatically generates in-depth industry reports — surpassing traditional manual approaches comprehensively in terms of timeliness, coverage, personalization, and depth of analysis. SMM has now deployed a mature industry AI solution: leveraging SMM’s massive database and customized AI capabilities, enterprises can enable intelligent inquiries, interactive reviews, and dynamic strategy simulations, accurately serving transaction analysis, production planning, and inventory strategies for non-ferrous metals such as cobalt, nickel, and copper. SMM AI Data Services offer a three-tier progressive intelligent solution for the metals industry: Instant Inquiry → Xiao Jin (Metrix): access real-time price trends and market insights, with data sourced from a premium subscription-grade database and insights calibrated by senior analysts; In-depth Research → Deep Report: a chapter-by-chapter analysis by product and region, featuring traceable charts and citations, and continuously updated as market conditions evolve; System Integration → MCP Data Services: covering over 200,000 real-time data indicators and more than 60 products across the entire industry chain, a single integration embeds the service into the enterprise AI framework. Keynote Speech: Indonesia's Post-Election Economy: Can the Country Sustain 5–6% Growth Amid Fiscal Pressures, Weak Export Prices and Heavy Industrial Power Subsidies? Speaker: Andre Simangunsong, Head of Mandiri Institute, Office of Chief Economist, Bank Mandiri Andre Simangunsong said Indonesia’s GDP grew by 5.6% in Q1 2026, with a full-year baseline forecast of 5.2%. The strong Q1 growth was primarily driven by a low base effect from delayed fiscal spending in 2025 and the front-loading of this year’s fiscal disbursements. The full year faces uncertainties from rising crude oil prices, geopolitical fluctuations, and a widening fiscal deficit. The 2026 fiscal budget is approximately IDR 2,000 trillion, focusing on eight key areas such as education and food security; 19 major industrial projects have already commenced, with nickel smelting and industry chain parks accelerating establishment, propelling the mineral sector’s transformation from raw resource exports to high-value-added deep processing. Indonesia has revised nickel ore royalty rules, introducing progressive royalty rates, promoting the upgrade of nickel products from nickel pig iron (NPI) to MHP and nickel sulphate, and laying out hydrometallurgical processing for low-grade ores; the outlook for the tin industry is positive. The banking sector’s loan-to-deposit ratio remains stable at 85%, and Bank Mandiri is advancing digital transformation and ESG-compliant lending to empower downstream industry projects. By combining industrial, fiscal, and financial strengths, Indonesia is expected to maintain a growth range of 5%–6% in the medium and long term. CXO Panel: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges Moderator: Laksmi Kusumawati, Director of Downstream Planning and International Economic Cooperation, Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas Panelists: Bernardus Irmanto, President Director, PT Vale Indonesia Alex Sun, Chief Sustainability Officer and Vice President, Integrated Energy Service and Carbon Management, Envision Group Marvin R. Reinhart, Portfolio Management Department Head, Indonesia Battery Corporation Ilhamsyah Mahendra, Production & Commercial Director, PT Timah Tbk Keynote Speech: Breaking the Diesel Dependency: Reliable, Affordable Energy for Island Mines Speaker: Mr. Fred Ge, C&I BESS Technical Solution Manager in Asia-Pacific, Sungrow Panel Discussion: The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Moderator： MARCO KAMIYA， UNIDO Representative, Regional Office in Jakarta for Indonesia, Timor Leste and the Philippines UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) Panelists: Ary Sudijanto, Deputy for Climate Change Control and Carbon Economic Value Governance, Ministry of Environment, Government of Indonesia Antti Koulumies, CEO, Terrafame Anna Stancher, Senior Project Manager, Responsible Minerals Initiative Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Lihui Sun, Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer, Huayou Cobalt From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Additionally, SMM has also meticulously arranged two rounds of panel discussions: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Conference Background In recent years, global nickel and cobalt raw material supply has frequently encountered various disruptions: Indonesia significantly lowered its nickel ore mining quota to 260–270 million mt, tightening nickel resource release at the source; the DRC continuously reduced cobalt ore export quotas, leading to a marked contraction in tradable cobalt raw materials worldwide. Multiple supply variables continued to roil nickel and cobalt commodity futures. Meanwhile, Indonesia is not only the core hub of the global nickel industry chain but also a key production area for global new cobalt supply at this stage. Its industrial control policies, commissioning pace of capacity, and industry chain layout changes directly shape the evolution of the global nickel-cobalt supply-demand pattern. Currently, the global nickel and cobalt industry is at a critical development stage featuring supply-demand restructuring, policy innovation, and value reassessment. To accurately forecast the nickel and cobalt market trends in 2026, deeply analyze the latest industrial control details in Indonesia, and help upstream and downstream players across the industry chain break down collaboration barriers, the Nickel and Cobalt Forum was launched. The forum brought together global mines, smelters, trading firms, downstream end-users, and investment and financing institutions to conduct in-depth discussions on key topics such as market supply and demand trends, policies and regulations, production technology iteration, and cross-border industrial cooperation, jointly exploring new growth drivers for high-quality industry development. Ni & Co Forum Keynote Speech: Mining Regulatory Outlook: RKAB Quota Planning and Indonesia's Next-Phase Downstream Mineral Expansion Path Guest Speaker: Totoh Abdul Fatah, Secretary General of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Totoh Abdul Fatah noted that RKAB is the key policy instrument for Indonesia to regulate mineral output, coordinate the orderly rollout of industries, and align with the nation's downstream industrialization priorities. Indonesia is endowed with exceptional mineral and coal resources, with significant reserves and capacity in several key strategic commodities including nickel, cobalt, copper, tin, bauxite, gold and silver, and iron ore. Leveraging these unique resource advantages, Indonesia holds a critical strategic position in the global mineral supply chain, and its value is especially prominent in the energy transition wave, providing strong support for the development of power batteries, renewable energy equipment, and high-end manufacturing. The next phase of downstream mineral development is not about curbing growth, but about improving development quality, clarifying development direction, strengthening regulatory management, and reinforcing the sustainability of growth. Future smelter layout must match ore supply capability, be aligned with resource conservation, and coordinate multiple factors including energy infrastructure readiness, environmental protection access standards, and domestic industry value addition. In light of these considerations, the Indonesian government is promoting an industrial logic shift from pure capacity expansion to strategic optimization of resource allocation, ensuring that mineral resources are precisely directed to industry segments that can maximize national economic benefits. Indonesia's downstream mineral industrialization has made concrete progress. Currently, 14 smelters are in operation, primarily producing products such as nickel oxide, pig iron, and copper cathode. Covering both existing operating plants and new projects under construction, the entire industry chain has attracted a total realized investment of $7.849 billion. Breakdown: nickel sector investment of $2.535 billion, aluminum sector $2.181 billion, iron ore projects $47 million, and copper sector $3.084 billion. This is continuously improving the supporting system of the domestic mineral industry chain. This progress demonstrates that Indonesia's downstream mineral policy has achieved tangible results. However, challenges remain for the industry: not only must new smelting projects be completed and commissioned on schedule, but they also require stable supporting supply to achieve efficient operations, green and low-carbon production, and deep integration into the domestic industry chain value system. Indonesia's development direction is very clear: the downstream transformation of minerals will continue to advance, and during the implementation process, policy enforcement constraints and top-level strategic guidance will be further strengthened. The RKAB management system and ore source allocation control rules are key to building a robust and more resilient industrial ecosystem. Future smelting project planning needs to coordinate four key dimensions: sustainable resource development, supply-demand market equilibrium, ESG compliance implementation, and enhancement of national value added. Indonesia has always been open to quality investment, especially high-quality investment, relying on foreign capital to achieve technology transfer and localization, expand local employment, and support long-term economic growth. In other words, Indonesia's industrial development not only pursues growth, but is committed to achieving high-quality growth that is compliant, sustainable, and globally competitive. Keynote Speech: Nickel at a Crossroads：A Five-Year Outlook on Global Nickel — Navigating Policy, Supply, and Demand Shifts Speaker: Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market Feng projects that the global primary nickel market will show a supply deficit in 2026, continue the oversupply trend in 2027, and shift to a tight balance in 2029. Regarding refined nickel prices, on the cost side, global sulfur supply and demand will face a persistent deficit in the next 2–3 years. In the case of short-term strait blockades, sulfur prices remain high, strengthening the cost support for the sulfur-MHP-refined nickel chain. From a macro perspective, the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered wild swings in energy prices, pushing up inflation expectations. In the short term, global commodity prices will face considerable fluctuations. In the long term, global geopolitical uncertainty may become the new normal in the future, increasing the volatility of refined nickel prices. Nickel Ore Upstream Repricing: Indonesia's Benchmark Price Raise, Quota Tightening, and Increased Dependence on the Philippines Indonesia Nickel Ore RKAB Quotas: Tight Balance Emerges as the 2026 Main Theme According to SMM analysis, following the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' (ESDM) official denial of market rumors that RKAB production quotas would be raised across the board by 25%–30%, the government will handle supplementary quotas under strict case-by-case reviews starting from H2 2026, evaluating each miner's compliance, capacity, and resource reserves. At its core, this constitutes a routine and orderly optimisation of the existing 260–270 million wmt quota cap, paving the way for a more stable and sustainable market environment. Supply RKAB Approval Progress: As of April, Indonesia's cumulative approved RKAB quotas stand at 240 million wmt. SMM expects that, under expectations of continued nickel ore supply tightening, supplementary quotas around mid-year 2026 will be approximately 15%. Philippine Import Driver: SMM expects that this year, Indonesia's nickel ore imports from the Philippines will rise from approximately 15 million in 2025 to 22 million. Tightness in the domestic trade nickel ore supply will accelerate supplementation through imports from the Philippines. Demand Affected by the tight sulfur supply, MHP output has fallen short of earlier expectations. As a result, Indonesia's nickel ore demand for full-year 2026 is expected to be reduced to 303 million wmt. In 2026, actual nickel ore production will remain constrained by factors such as the rainy season and the pace of RKAB quota approvals, leaving overall output below theoretical supply levels. Panel Discussion: Upstream Opportunities & Challenges for Nickel Mine Owners Moderator: Enzo Brooklyn, Senior Nickel Analyst, SMM Panelists: Luca Maiotti, Policy Analyst, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Aldo Namora, President Director, PT Ceria Metalindo Prima Jerome Baudelet, CEO, Eramet Indonesia Patrick Lim, Country Head, HyperStrong Indonesia Keynote Speech: Achieving Energy Efficiency and Operational Success: The MMD Approach at Mah Moe Speaker: Fuad Budidarma Pratama, General Manager, MMD Mining Machinery Indonesia Keynote Speech: Global Nickel Market Outlook Speaker: Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics, International Nickel Study Group (INSG) Ricardo Ferreira noted that global primary nickel production is estimated to have declined by approximately 4% YoY, measured across the full chain from raw ore mining to finished primary nickel products. Most of this decrease originated from Indonesia, while expectations also pointed to a pullback in Chinese nickel output. According to the monthly bulletin released earlier, global primary nickel already edged down by about 1% in Q1, with Indonesia down roughly 3% and China down about 1%. Keynote Speech: New Refining Technologies for Laterite Nickel and Spent Batteries Speaker: Dr. Chunwei Liu, Managing Director of Resource Extraction, Botree Recycling Technologies Distribution of Laterite Nickel Ore Resources Laterite nickel ore accounts for 55% of global nickel resources and is the main source of nickel for industrial production worldwide. With the continuous development and promotion of high-nickel batteries, market demand for nickel—and consequently for laterite nickel ore processing—has grown significantly. Geographic concentration: Mainly distributed in tropical countries within 30° north and south of the equator. Three core regions: Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines (major laterite nickel ore producing areas). Americas: Cuba, Brazil. Oceania: Australia, New Caledonia. Panel Discussion: Nickel Price Volatility, Product Spreads, and Policy Shifts: What Will Define the Market in the next 5 years? Moderator: Slupek Kamila, Secretary-General, INSG Panelists: Jim Lennon, Analyst, Macquarie Septian Hario Seto, Member, National Economic Council Republic of Indonesia Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director, Norilsk Nickel Edric Koh, Head of Corporate Sales, Asia, London Metal Exchange Mark Selby, CEO & Director, Canada Nickel Company Keynote Speech: Korean Battery Supply Chain Strategy and Indonesia's Role Speaker: James (IKHWAN) Choi, Country Manager, Korea Office, SMM Korea Office Keynote Speech: Retreat or Evolve? The Counter-Attack of High-Nickel Batteries under the LFP Siege: Solid State, 4680, and the "Range Anxiety" Premium Speaker: Jared Zhu, Head of Consulting, Renewable Energy & Non-ferrous Metals, Shanghai Metals Market Jared noted that LFP batteries have steadily increased their market share in power battery and energy storage markets in recent years. With the rapid development of emerging sectors such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), ternary batteries, leveraging their performance advantages, are more competitive than LFP batteries. Solid-state batteries are regarded by the industry as a must-win field for future competition, but it is worth noting that this new technology, capable of rewriting industry rules, still has a long development cycle before full commercialization. Positioning in the LFP Era LFP Accelerates Replacement of Ni-Co-Mn in Energy Storage and EVs, Leading in Scale and Growth SMM forecasts the global share of EV power battery types from 2026 to 2027, expecting LFP batteries to account for around 68% in 2026, with that ratio rising to about 70% in 2027. For ESS battery types, from 2022 to 2025, the share of LFP batteries in global ESS batteries continued to rise, and in 2026, it is expected to increase to around 99%. Keynote Speech: QMAG - Market Leader of Calcined Magnesia for Nickel/Cobalt MHP Production Speaker: Christoph Beyer, Managing Director of Queensland Magnesia (QMAG) Dr. Keynote Speech: Cobalt in Focus: Powering the Next Chapter of Critical Minerals Speaker: Dinah McLeod, Director General, Cobalt Institute June 5: Nickel and Cobalt Forum Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Balancing Risk and Reward: Investing in Indonesia's Nickel and Cobalt Value Chain Speaker: Izzie Huo, Senior Research Fellow, Shanghai Metals Market Panel Discussion: Too Much Nickel? Balancing Oversupply Risks with Long-Term Investment in Indonesia Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Ali Safdar, Managing Director & Partner, BCG (Boston Consulting Group) Arif Perdana Kusumah, Chairman, Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) Ditya Maharhani Harninda, Senior Vice President Corporate Banking 2, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (Persero) Keynote Speech: Valve Solutions for Severe Service in HPAL Speaker: Changsong Deng, President of International Business Division, ANTIWEAR Keynote Speech: Breaking the Import Dependency: Economics and Feasibility of Pyrite-based Acid Production for Indonesia's HPAL Supply Chain Speaker: Bede Beresford Evans, President Director, PT Sumbawa Timur Mining Keynote Speech: Key Technology and Economic Analysis of AI Power Microgrid Solutions in Mining Speaker: Frank Qi, CEO, Ai Power (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Value of Analytical Solutions in Mining Processes Speaker: Toh Tiong Yen, Sales Manager, Malvern Panalytical Keynote Speech: New Caledonia's Nickel Landscape Speaker: Gabriel Bensimon, Special Advisor to the President of the Government on Nickel and Mining-Related Matters, The Government of New Caledonia Keynote Speech: Global Flow of Nickel from Mining to End-Use Speaker: Dr. Steukers Veronique, President, Nickel Institute Primary nickel production is now dominated by Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia produced around 50% of the world's primary nickel, compared to just 6% a decade earlier. Primary nickel production in the rest of the world declined. In 2025, primary nickel production in the rest of the world, excluding Indonesia and China, accounted for just over 20% of the global total, down from 65% a decade earlier. Indonesia and China are the core driving forces shaping the global nickel supply chain landscape. From the perspective of nickel product circulation structure, NPI, backed by Indonesia's capacity advantage, firmly dominates the circulation mainstream; in terms of global nickel raw material supply by grade, Class 2 nickel accounts for approximately 58%, Class 1 nickel for just under 30%, and nickel chemical products for the remaining around 13%. Panel Discussion: Meet the Future of ESG: Standard, Challenges and Opportunities in Mining and Processing Moderator: Katz Benjamin, Policy Analyst, OECD Panelists: Dr. Chris Schlekat, Executive Director of NIPERA, Nickel Institute Ning Wang, Manager, Sustainable Development Department, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Vinícius Mendes Ferreira, Executive Advisor for Nickel Downstreaming, PT Vale Indonesia Fan Li, Sustainability and ESG Services Manager, dss+ Tom Fairlie, Senior Sustainability Manager, Cobalt Institute Tin Forum June 4 Visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is pleased to announce that an SMM-led delegation, headed by SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager Jenny Wu and made up of delegates from the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2026 , conducted a formal visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) on June 4. The event was organized by SMM and co-organized by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Economic Council, Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), and MMR, with the Jakarta Futures Exchange as the strategic partner. This visit underscores SMM’s commitment to fostering long-term, win-win partnerships between Indonesia’s top mineral exporters and global metals industry stakeholders. Supply and Demand Exchange Session June 5 Opening Remarks Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Keynote Speech Keynote Speech: DRC Tin Ore: Current Supply Status and Market Dynamics Insights Speaker: Raj Chug, General Manager, Mining Mineral Resources Keynote Speech: African Tin Ore: Resource Potential and Supply Chain Breakthrough Paths Amid Supply Shortages Speaker: Egyul Mamoko， Metallurgist Expert， CTCPM (Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière) [Panel Discussion] Global Tin Mine Supply Seminar: Current Status, Opportunities, and Future Challenges Moderator: Vicky Qiao, Senior Analyst at SMM Panelists: Egyul Mamoko, Metallurgist Expert, CTCPM (Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière) Erwin Setyawan, Head of Trading & Operation, Jakarta Futures Exchange Joseph G. Miller Esq, Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist/Director, Mission Critical Metals, Mission Critical Metals Keynote Speech: The Development Trend of the Tin Market in China Speaker: Zheyu Zhang, Tin Market Analyst, Marketing Department, Yuntin (Honghe) Investment Development Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Opportunities and Challenges for Smelters Under Indonesia's New Tin Industry Policies Speaker: Yazid Kanca Surya, Chief Executive Officer, Jakarta Futures Exchange Fragmented Global Supply Chain System Reshaping of the Geopolitical Landscape : Trade disputes and geopolitical tensions are profoundly altering traditional commodity trade patterns. Industrial Security :Countries are increasingly prioritizing long-term stable supply of strategic resources over short-term price advantages. Focus on Critical Minerals : Tin’s industry role is no longer isolated; it has become a core issue in the global energy transition and high-end manufacturing sectors. Evolution of the Tin Market The industry is entering a new phase where credibility is as important as capacity. Promoting Downstream Industrialisation (Hilirisasi) •Historical Development Background: Indonesia has long been dominated by the supply of primary processed products, with most downstream value addition achieved outside China. • Strategic Goals : Indonesia is adjusting export policies, trade management, and supply chain oversight to retain high-value-added industries within the country. Strengthening regulation and cracking down on illegal mining are not punitive measures, but rather efforts to build a transparent system to help the local area vigorously promote the development of downstream industries. Smelters Under Pressure Upstream uncertainties: Illegal mining disrupts the market, raw material supply fluctuates, and price trends are difficult to predict. Downstream market requirements: Strict compliance standards, full transparency in raw material traceability, and continuously rising screening thresholds for buyers. Market Volatility Intensifies The uncertainty in the current operating environment has increased significantly. Enterprises must not only cope with production risks, but also simultaneously address the multiple pressures arising from external shocks and rising operating costs. Investment Barriers in Deep Processing Keynote Speech: Deepening Downstream Diversification, Joining Hands to Foster Long-term Prosperity Guest Speaker: HARRY BUDI SIDHARTA, S.T, MM., Vice President Director, PT Timah (Persero) Tbk Keynote Speech: Challenges and Opportunities for China's Tin Industry amid Global Tin Ore Supply Changes Guest Speaker: Huanbo Qin, Market Analyst, International Tin Association China Keynote Speech: Analysis of Global Tin Price Trends and Future Outlook Speaker: Vicky Qiao, Senior Analyst, Shanghai Metals Market Price Trend Overview Price Review: Amid macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions, market fundamentals have provided structural support Key Points: Tight mine-side supply has established a long-term price floor, while macro liquidity has primarily driven price fluctuations. Tin Resources and Mine Supply Landscape Supply elasticity is limited, accompanied by a high geographic concentration of reserves; the global static mine life is less than 15 years. Rising mine production alongside shrinking global resources has accelerated reserve depletion in producing countries. DRC: Output from major mines remained stable; however, M23 militant activities increased market uncertainty. ►Risks 1. The M23 armed conflict has spread to the Masisi region east of the Bisie mine and the Goma border crossing between the DRC and Rwanda, directly disrupting the original tin ore transportation route via Goma to Dar es Salaam. 2. To mitigate conflict risks, security at the Bisie mine has been reinforced, and freight routes have been adjusted northward to reroute through Uganda, ultimately destined for the port of Mombasa in Kenya. Nevertheless, market concerns persist that further spread of the M23 conflict could disrupt normal production operations at the mine. 3. The DRC recently experienced an Ebola outbreak, with confirmed cases concentrated in Beni and Bunia, areas adjacent to Uganda. Strict disease prevention measures have been implemented at both the mine and along transportation links; Bisie's mining and freight activities have yet to be affected by the pandemic impact. However, the market remains apprehensive about the local mineral supply outlook. Myanmar's Man Maw Tin Mine: Production Resumptions Hindered • 90% of Myanmar's tin ore production is concentrated in Wa State. To ensure rational resource extraction and stable regional development, Wa State suspended all tin ore mining starting in 2023, with new mining permits only reissued in July 2025. Due to the local rainy climate, the mine pits accumulated significant water during the suspension, making drainage the primary challenge upon work resumption. As the water accumulation issue affected multiple pits, the cost-sharing arrangements for drainage among mining enterprises were long delayed and never finalized. The resulting obstruction of drainage work has directly constrained the mine's production resumption progress. •In February 2026, the local government issued detailed rules clarifying the cost-sharing standards for drainage, and the Wa State tin mine immediately began resuming production. •Currently, strict approval and control of civilian explosives in Myanmar, compounded by disruptions to mining and logistics caused by the rainy season, have led to progress in local production resumptions falling short of expectations. Full resumption is expected only by 2027. The number of new tin mine projects globally is scarce, with generally low ore grades and lengthy development-to-production cycles. New projects generally have low ore grades, posing upside risks to future mining costs and increasing operational difficulty. Only three new projects have grades above 1%. Lower ore grades mean that more raw ore must be processed to produce the same amount of tin metal. The future supply landscape will be markedly differentiated, with total planned and under-construction projects reaching 173.5 kt in capacity, and just four major projects accounting for over 67%. Global supply will be highly dependent on these core mine projects, while five new projects in Australia can only bring a small incremental increase with limited impact. Global Tin Ingot Supply The high concentration of primary tin smelting capacity limits the global supply elasticity of tin ingots. Keynote Speech: Achieving the Trading and Risk Hedging of Pure Tin Ingots Through the Standardized Trading Mechanism of the Futures Market – Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Authority Guest Speaker: Ima Siti Fatimah, Head of the Commodity Futures Trading Development Bureau, Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia Keynote Speech: Under the Drive of Geopolitical Policies: Global Strategic Metal Tin Trade Restructuring, Breakthroughs in North American Secondary Production, and New Logic in Solder Consumption Guest Speaker: Joseph G. Miller Esq, Strategic & Defense Metals Specialist/Director, Mission Critical Metals, Mission Critical Metals ► Securing Supply: US Plan to Reshore Critical Metal (Tin) Capacity • Lessons drawn from COVID-19 and World War II. • No primary tin capacity currently exists in North America: no tin ore mining operations, no tin ore smelting capacity. • The US secondary tin market is regionally fragmented. • The US government supports the Nathan Trotter primary/secondary tin smelter. • The Trump administration has made multiple investments in the critical metals sector. • Security situation in the DRC and surrounding regions. ► Data Center Tin Consumption Estimates How much tin is consumed per gigawatt of installed data center capacity? • Servers, GPUs, network systems: 500–1,500 mt. • Power systems, switchgear: 100–400 mt. • Control devices, communication equipment, cooling systems: 50–200 mt. • Tin usage per gigawatt of installed AI data center capacity is approximately 1,200–1,500 mt. Additionally, the speaker noted: the PV industry's annual tin consumption is about 25,000 mt, with average annual new installations of around 30 GW, corresponding to tin demand of 36,000–45,000 mt. Keynote Speech: Due Diligence in the Indonesian Tin Sector: A Tradition of Early Adoption and Pathways for ESG Leadership Guest Speaker: Josue Ruiz, Director of Facility Engagement, Responsible Minerals Initiative Keynote Speech: Malaysian Tin Mine: Market Breakthrough and Global Expansion from the Perspective of Critical Minerals Guest Speaker: DATO DEREK TENG, Director of the SETARA JELITA SDN BHD, President of the MALAYSIA MARITIME SILK ROUTE RESEARCH SOCIETY Critical Minerals in the New Era Strategic Positioning and Core Applications of Tin National Strategic Cornerstone: Listed in the “Critical Minerals List” by many countries, it holds an irreplaceable core position in securing national resource security and maintaining the resilience of global supply chains. Modern Industrial Lifeline: The core raw material for electronic solder manufacturing, it supports semiconductor packaging, PCB circuit boards, and other electronic information industries, serving as the “industrial monosodium glutamate” of modern manufacturing. Frontier Technology Engine: Empowering emerging technologies such as 5G communications, NEV batteries, PV modules, and AI chips, it drives the dual transformation of the digital economy and green transition. Tin: The “Industrial MSG” Driving High-Tech Industries ► A Core Member of the Global Critical Minerals System U.S. Official Designation: According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “2025 Critical Minerals List,” tin is formally listed as a critical mineral, regarded as a strategic resource vital to national economic development and national security. Global Industry Consensus: In the mineral assessment systems of the EU and other developed economies, tin also occupies a core position. It is an indispensable “emerging cornerstone mineral” supporting the global digital economic transformation and the upgrade of the new energy industry. The global tin application structure in 2025 is very clear: 53% is used in semiconductors and high-end electronic solder, 16% in fine tin chemical new materials, 11% in food-grade tinplate and tin cans, and 8% directly in the PV green new energy industry. Tin Applications in High-Growth Sectors Currently, three major high-growth tracks worldwide are continuously driving rigid incremental demand for tin. First, AI computing power and hyperscale data centers: The tin consumption per unit of high-end AI servers is 3–13 times that of ordinary servers. With the explosive growth of global AI computing power demand, the demand for high-end solder will continue to grow rapidly. Second, new energy vehicles: Tin consumption per vehicle is about three times that of internal combustion engine vehicles, and for intelligent car models, it can reach up to 1.5 kg per vehicle. Third, advanced packaging: The solder ball usage of advanced packaging technologies such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is more than five times that of traditional DRAM. Malaysia at a Crossroads The Decline of a Former Empire and Opportunities for Transformation ► Glorious History · Tin Empire: In the 1960s, Malaysia was the world's veritable "Tin Empire." Its tin production once accounted for one-third of the global total, and revenue from tin exports represented as much as 60% of the country's total export revenue, dominating the global tin trade landscape. ► Current Situation · Dual Challenges: However, after industrial iteration, its share of global production was only 0.2% in 2023, with annual output falling to 6,100 mt, marking a sharp decline. Malaysia still holds considerable secondary resource reserves of 780,000 tonnes, with native ore depleted but tailings holding significant potential. ► Future · Reshaping Value Strategic Empowerment: Leverage the new strategic identity of “critical minerals” to enhance discourse power and bargaining power in the international supply chain. Industrial Leap: Shift away from dependence on primary tin ingot exports and move towards high value-added deep processing manufacturing and the establishment of a circular economy system. Core Challenges Faced Currently, Malaysia’s tin industry faces four core structural challenges. Market Breakthrough: Reshaping Value Embrace the New Identity and Extend into Downstream High Value-Added Sectors Build a Regional Circular Economy Center Core Strategy: Fully leverage Malaysia’s industrial advantage as a global electronics manufacturing center, turning the large amount of tin-containing scrap generated during production—including solder dross, waste circuit boards, etc.—into valuable recycled tin resources, and establish an “urban mining” resource recycling system. Keynote Speech: From Waste to Value: How Smelters and Recycling Enterprises Uncover Hidden Treasures in Tin Ore By-Products Guest Speaker: Justin Wang, Director of Marketing and Technology, Stannum Solutions(Shanghai) Co., Ltd. Coal & Energy Transition Forum June 4 Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: The Future of Renewable Energy for Mining Contractors in Indonesia Guest Speaker: Bambang Tjahjono, Executive Director of ASPINDO Panel Discussion: The Indonesia 2060 Net-Zero Roadmap: The Role and Transition Pathway for the Mining Sector Moderator: Verena Streitferdt, Director, Tri Hita Consulting Panelists: Alfonsius Ariawan, Mining & Metals Lead, Indonesia, dss+ Yan Yan Muhammad Achdiansyah, Innovative Project Manager for Asia Pacific, HDF Energy Ardhi Ishak, Chairman of Industry Relations & Industry Associations, PERHAPI (Association of Indonesian Mining Professionals) Keynote Speech: Banking on the Transition: Sustainable Finance Solutions for Indonesia’s Mining and Energy Sector Guest Speaker: Dendi Ramdani, Vice President for Industry and Regional Research, PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. [Panel Discussion] Reshaping the Role of Coal: Balancing Indonesia's Energy Security and Just Transition Moderator: Muhammad Saly Putra, Head of Marketing, MMS Resources Panelists: Putra Adhiguna, Managing Director, Energy Shift Institute Anton Frian Yohanes Reynaldo, Global Relations Team, Badan Pengaturan Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BP BUMN) Gita Mahyarani, Executive Director, APBI-ICMA Emmanuel Jefferson Kuesar, Chief Executive Officer, Sun Energy Ardhi Ishak, Chairman of Industry Relations & Industry Associations, PERHAPI (Association of Indonesian Mining Professionals) Keynote Speech: Shifting Global Demand: Capturing Emerging Markets in South Asia Guest Speaker: Vasudev Pamnani, Director, iEnergy Natural Resources Limited Executive Roundtable – Margin Protection Strategies: Managing High Production Costs, Royalty Hikes, and Domestic Pricing Caps Moderator: Kevin Triadi Gunawan, Country BD Manager, Argus Panelists: Suryo Suwignjo, CEO, PT Titan Infra Sejatera Ashok Mitra, Senior Advisor, Bakrie Capital Indonesia FH Kristiono, CEO, UCoal Keynote Speech: The Cost of Compliance: Balancing Cash Flow and Strategic Investment Amidst RKAB Quota Cuts and DMO Burdens Speaker: Subhashish Datta, CFO, Kaltim Prima Coal June 5 Coal & Energy Transition Forum Keynote Speeches Panel Discussion: Vision to Leverage 100GW of Solar - What are the Opportunities and Challenges Moderator: Tengku Zulchairi P., Indonesia Sales Manager, LONGi Solar Panelists: Dr. Farid Wijaya, Manager of Sectoral Decarbonization Research, Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) Eka Himawan, Co-Founder & Managing Director, Xurya Daya Indonesia Johan Hadi Wardoyo, Chief Commercial Officer, PT Trina Mas Agra Indonesia Keynote Speech: Navigating the Cycles: The Evolution of Global PV Supply Chains and Its Strategic Impact on Indonesia Speaker: Ryan Tey Tze Yang, PV Analyst, Shanghai Metals Market Keynote Speech: From Ambition to Action: AESI's Roadmap for Solar deployment in Indonesia's Critical Minerals Sector Speaker: I Made Aditya Suryawidya, Vice Chairman of Research and Technology, Asosiasi Energi Surya Indonesia (AESI) Panel Discussion: Hybrid Energy Systems: Designing the Optimal Mix of Solar, Storage, and Diesel for Mega-Mines Moderator: Ryan Tey Tze Yang, PV Analyst, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Eka Satria, CEO, Medco Power Indonesia Ricky Cahya Andrian, Vice President of Decarbonization Business Development and Energy Management, PT PLN (Persero) Karina Darmawan, Chief Executive Officer, SUN Mobility Muchtazar, Head of Sustainability, Nickel Industries Limited Nian Gao, Director, Microgrid Solution Department, Sungrow Keynote Speech: EV Infrastructure & Energy Storage: The Final Piece of the Mining Decarbonization Puzzle Speaker: Christopher Marvel, Country Business Development Manager - Indonesia, StarCharge Mining carbon emissions are typical operational emissions, with emission sources spanning the entire operational chain of a mine. Mine decarbonization cannot be achieved solely through carbon disclosure, carbon offsets, or green procurement. Daily production activities such as transportation and turnaround, captive power supply, crushing and grinding, mine ventilation, and process electricity are the core carriers of carbon emissions. The core challenge for the industry today is to steadily reduce carbon emission intensity against a backdrop of growing demand for minerals. This requires a systematic restructuring of the mine’s overall energy system, rather than simply replacing fuels for individual equipment. Diesel-powered transport is the key battleground for carbon reduction in mines Various types of mobile equipment are the key targets for carbon emission monitoring. The average annual fuel consumption of a single mining truck is close to one million liters. For open-pit mines, fuel consumption is closely linked to haul distance, road gradient, payload, dispatch management, and vehicle idling. Therefore, the transport phase becomes the optimal breakthrough point that balances carbon reduction and production efficiency. The electrification of mining trucks is not a technical bottleneck; the real key lies in whether the supporting core infrastructure, such as charging and energy storage, can enable the equipment to operate at full capacity and ensure that production is not affected. The global fleet of large mining haul trucks numbers about 28,000 units, and is still predominantly diesel-powered. According to RMI estimates, the average annual diesel consumption of a single truck reaches 900,000 liters; energy consumption by haul vehicles accounts for 30%–50% of total mine energy use, corresponding to annual CO2 emissions from the global fleet of approximately 68 million mt. Keynote Speech: From Blueprint to Site: Engineering Practices for High-Availability PV-Storage Microgrids in Indonesia’s Tropical Rainforests Guest Speaker: Frank Qi, CEO, AI Power (Suzhou) Tech. Co., Ltd. Suryawan Teddy, Director of ATW Solar Panel Discussion: What Will Drive the Next Wave of Industrial Solar in Indonesia? Moderator: Eric C. Listyosuputro, Partner, EY-Parthenon Indonesia Panelists: Jannata (Egi) Giwangkara, Country Lead – Indonesia, Climateworks Zidny Ilman, Associate Vice President of Public Policy and Government Relations, Suryanesia Aluminum Forum June 4 Guest Speeches Keynote Speech: Aluminum Market — Looking Ahead from Today's Supply Chain Squeeze Speaker: Duncan Hobbs, Research Director, Concord Resources Ltd Duncan Hobbs noted that while the aluminum market currently appears to face a significant supply deficit, the inventory available to fill that gap is limited. We have lowered our forecast for global aluminum production in 2026, expecting total output of around 73.8 million mt, basically flat YoY, whereas our January forecast projected a 2.8% YoY increase. At the same time, the global aluminum consumption growth forecast has been revised down from 2.3% to 1.9%. After these adjustments, the estimated nominal market deficit expands to roughly 2.1 million mt, a substantial increase from the 300,000 mt projected in January. Absorbing this deficit depends heavily on accessible inventories; if inventory draws prove insufficient, the supply-demand balance will have to rely on price mechanisms to curb demand, ultimately bringing consumption in line with actual production. Currently, freely circulating market inventory may struggle to cover the 2.1 million mt deficit, providing upward momentum for aluminum prices. Keynote Speech: Updated Downstream Development of Minerals and Energy in Indonesia Speaker: Novi Muharam, Acting Head of Division Downstream Strategy, Research & Process Engineering, MIND ID Panel Discussion: Navigating Change: Resilience Strategies for the Global Bauxite, Alumina and Primary Aluminum Market Moderator: Sibyl Yang, Senior Aluminum Analyst, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Mark Roggensinger, Head of Market Analysis - Hydro Bauxite & Alumina, Hydro Dinesh Raj, P. Global Head – Supply Chain Due Diligence, Siemens Energy Ken Permana, CFO, PT Indonesia Asahan Alumunium Mahmood Dailami, Secretary General, Gulf Aluminium Council Ilham Iskandar Siregar, SVP - Base Metals Commercial, PT ANTAM Tbk Keynote Speech: Expansion of India’s Upstream Aluminum Sector: New Projects and the Rise of Alumina Capacity Speaker: Dr. Ashok Nandi, President, IBAAS-International Bauxite Alumina & Aluminium Society ► Currently, India's alumina capacity is approximately 11.3 million mt/year, and through brownfield and greenfield expansions, it is expected to increase to 15 million mt/year by 2030. ► Although the country has abundant bauxite resources, the main issue is that deposits are often located in ecologically sensitive areas, such as tribal lands and dense forests, and environmental clearances face delays. ► Refineries like Lanjigarh Vedanta, Hindalco Belgavi, and Pioneer struggle to secure local ore supply and primarily import bauxite from Guinea. Global Alumina Landscape China is the global leader in alumina production. Australia trails far behind, followed by India, Brazil, Russia, and other countries. Keynote Speech: Restructuring the Aluminum Industry in the Low-Carbon Era: China-Driven Transformation of Global Bauxite Supply Chain Rules and Redistribution of Power Speaker: Linda Shan, Deputy Secretary-General & Director of the International Department of the United Nations Mining Consultative Expert Committee, ZHONGUANCUN Green Mine Industry Alliance The global aluminum industry stands at a historic turning point. This is not a simple adjustment of price cycles or supply-demand relationships, but a deep restructuring jointly driven by the low-carbon transition, industrial upgrading, resource security, and international cooperation. The theme of this paper is to analyze how China is driving the rule transformation in the global bauxite supply chain and to reveal the profound implications of power redistribution therein. The Variables Have Changed: From Old Cycles to New Rules The variables shaping the industry's direction have fundamentally changed. In the past, the market focused on the supply-demand gap, energy prices, and inventory cycles. But today, low-carbon rules, geopolitics, industrial policies, and supply chain risks have become the new dominant forces. One key data point is that in March 2026, China's primary aluminum production accounted for 60.2% of the global total. This indicates that the global aluminum industry is shifting from being purely cost-driven to a more complex rule-driven era. Why did this transformation occur? Because the three major fundamental assumptions on which the industry relied for decades are being broken. Previously, it was widely believed that resources could flow freely, energy prices would remain stable in the long term, and the global trade environment was relatively open. But the reality now is that logistics security is no longer taken for granted, energy costs are experiencing wild swings, and trade rules are constantly being rewritten. In one sentence: The old era was about competing on cost, while the new era is about the competitiveness of the system. Keynote Speech: Innovative Technologies for Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in Primary Aluminum Smelting Speaker: Yanfeng Lu, Deputy General Manager of Overseas Business Center, Shenyang Aluminum and Magnesium Engineeringand Research Institute Company Limited (SAMI) He stated that the company has always focused on energy savings, high efficiency, and environmental protection as core objectives, and has planned three major paths: enhancing magnetohydrodynamic stability, maintaining a good thermal balance, and systematically saving energy and reducing consumption. By optimizing the cathode assembly’s conduction path using interface fluctuation theory, the horizontal current in the aluminum liquid is reduced by over 30%, reducing pot deformation caused by electromagnetic force disturbances. Cathode voltage drop is reduced by 50 mV, and service life is extended by 20%. Breakthrough in Magnetohydrodynamic Stability: The company has adopted the most advanced physical field simulation technology for the R&D and design of pots, among which the magnetohydrodynamic simulation design provides technical assurance for the pots to achieve high efficiency and low consumption targets. Developed loop compensation external busbar technology and networked self-balancing busbar technology, enabling the pots to operate stably at low voltage, with a voltage reduction of 10%-15% compared to conventional pots, and improving current efficiency by 2%-3%. Through precise gas collection technology from dual-sided upper flues and a new ventilation structure for the plant, the working environment has been improved and environmental protection indicators have been enhanced. Additionally, the plug-in rectangular pot shell technology can significantly extend the lining life and improve equipment operational efficiency. Keynote Speech: High-Temperature Anti-Oxidation Functional Ceramic Coating Technology and Application for Prebaked Anodes Speaker: Guojing Hu, Technical Director, Jiangsu Green Harmony Energy and Environment Conservation Technology Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Linking the World: Nanshan's Localization Practice in Indonesia and the Aluminum Industry's Collaborative Future Speaker: Zhu Jiahui, Deputy General Manager, Bintan Alumina Indonesia He noted that China's aluminum capacity has approached the ceiling of 45 million mt, with extremely limited room for new additions, intensifying market competition. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia is undergoing rapid industrialization, and aluminum consumption demand remains robust. Indonesia, in particular, with its abundant bauxite resources, has become a hot spot for the global aluminum industry's relocation. It was based on this assessment that Nanshan made the strategic decision to break out of the domestic red ocean and set sail for the blue ocean overseas. Panel Discussion: Indonesia as the Global Focal Point of the Aluminum Industry: Investment, Technology and Cooperation Moderator: Jordan Janesputra, Senior Aluminum Analyst, SMM Indonesia Panelists: Mr. Eddy Permata Purba, Commercial and Business Development Director, PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia Dr. Beni Bevly Director PT Supreme Alumina Indonesia Esther Rodriguez, Critical Minerals Lead Responsible Sourcing, Ericsson AB Winston Ng, Director, PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry June 5 Aluminum Forum Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: The production practice of Borneo Alumina Indonesia Refinery and the future development direction of alumina technology Guest Speaker: Chuan Li, Deputy Director of Alumina Department, Shenyang Aluminum and Magnesium Engineeringand Research Institute Company Limited (SAMI) He stated that the BAI alumina refinery in Indonesia is a successful application of SAMI technology in the country, utilizing local bauxite and meeting international standards. Looking ahead, alumina technology is expected to develop towards large-scale, low-carbon, green, high-quality products, and intelligentization. SAMI will be committed to providing advanced, reliable, and customized alumina solutions to clients worldwide. Keynote Speech: Global Aluminum Market Outlook 2027: Key Variables and Uncertainties Guest Speaker: Sibyl Yang, Senior Aluminum Analyst, SMM She noted that from 2021 to 2024, the global aluminum market experienced a persistent supply deficit. The year 2025 became a pivotal turning point for the industry, with the aluminum market showing a tight supply-demand balance and a slight easing of the tight supply situation. In 2026, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have continued to unfold, and the unexpected developments have become a black swan event impacting the global aluminum industry chain, significantly affecting global aluminum supply. SMM conducted scenario-based forecasts for the primary aluminum market's supply-demand situation in 2026. Overall, SMM expects the global primary aluminum market to be in a supply deficit in 2026, shifting to a surplus in 2027. Aluminum Market Review According to SMM supply-demand balance data, from 2021 to 2024, the global aluminum market was in a persistent supply deficit. 2025 became a pivotal turning point for the industry, with the aluminum market showing a tight supply-demand balance and a slight easing of the tight supply situation. 2026 Middle East Geopolitical Escalation: A Black Swan Event for the Global Aluminum Industry Chain In 2026, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have continued to unfold, and the unexpected developments have become a black swan event impacting the global aluminum industry chain, significantly affecting global aluminum supply. [Panel Discussion] Future Aluminium Price Drivers (2026–2030): Market Fundamental Evolution Under Middle East Supply Risks and Expanding Capacity in Other Nations Moderator: Dr. Beni Bevly, Director, PT Supreme Alumina Indonesia Panelists: Winston Ng, Director, PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry Joyce Li, Commodity Strategist, Macquarie Jordan Janesputra, Senior Aluminum Analyst, SMM Indonesia Check-in & Networking Cocktail Party We extend our sincere gratitude to the global logistics leader Access World for its exclusive sponsorship of the cocktail party at this conference. Founded in 1933, Access World has grown from a family business into an international logistics organization operating in 25 countries, with a strategically located network of ports and warehousing facilities in prime locations, ensuring the efficient daily handling and flow of goods. As an end-to-end logistics service provider, Access World has long been committed to simplifying global supply chains and enhancing the efficiency of commodity circulation. It is worth noting that this marks the second consecutive year Access World has generously sponsored the cocktail dinner at the Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Minerals Conference. For this steadfast commitment and dedication to deeply cultivating the industry and continuously empowering industry exchanges, the organizing committee and all attendees express our deep respect and gratitude. ICM Dinner This is the end of the Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026. We appreciate your support and look forward to seeing you again next year!