[US Congressional Budget Office: The deadline for the US to reach the debt ceiling is expected to be from mid-August to month-end September] The US Congressional Budget Office stated that the deadline for the US to reach the debt ceiling is expected to be from mid-August to month-end September.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Spot Order Market Transactions Remain Sluggish, Lead Prices May Maintain Fluctuating Trend]...SHFE lead continued its fluctuating trend, with suppliers shipping goods according to market conditions. The discounts for some warrant cargo quotations widened compared to last Friday, while the discounts for cargoes self-picked up from production site narrowed. Primary lead quotations in major producing areas were at premiums of 0-125 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Additionally, there were more production cuts at secondary lead smelters, and market quotations were scattered...

As the US federal deficit "continues to soar," President Trump has finally revealed his "true feelings": the US should abolish the debt ceiling system. He urged both parties to take action to abolish it, stating that it was rare for him to agree with Senator Elizabeth Warren, a senior Democrat. On his social media platform Truth Social, he wrote, "I am pleased to announce that after all these years, I finally agree with Senator Elizabeth Warren on certain issues. The debt ceiling should be completely abolished to prevent an economic disaster. It is too destructive and should not be controlled by politicians who want to exploit it." "It could have a terrible impact on our country and, indirectly, even on the world. I also like Senator Warren's second statement about $4 trillion, but this must be done in the shortest possible time. Let's unite, Republicans and Democrats, and take action together!" he added. Trump shared a post from Warren on the social media platform X last Friday. Warren had expressed her agreement with Trump's view that the debt ceiling "should be abolished" and called for a bipartisan bill to "get rid of it forever." Trump also stated that he had "always agreed with her (Warren's) views" on this issue, adding that he had not discussed it with her privately. Last Friday, Trump also joined Musk at a press conference to express their hope to "see it (the debt ceiling) terminated and abolished, with no more votes every five or ten years, because it is catastrophic for our country." Trump's proposal is undoubtedly a "bombshell" for Washington politicians. The federal debt ceiling is like the "credit limit" on the government's "credit card," specifying the maximum amount the US government can owe. Simply put, the current situation is that the Treasury Department's limit is almost exhausted, and government spending could "run out" at any time. This system was originally intended to constrain the government from overspending, but it later became a tool for partisan bickering. Every time the debt approaches the limit, members of Congress from both sides start arguing fiercely, with neither side willing to compromise. If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling or suspend it, the US government could shut down or even face a debt default. At a time when Trump is vigorously promoting his "Big and Beautiful" bill, it's no wonder he came up with this idea: just abolish it. According to an analysis released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday, although the "Big and Beautiful" bill will reduce taxes by $3.75 trillion over the next decade, it will also lead to an increase in the deficit by $2.4 trillion. It is worth mentioning that the "Big and Beautiful" bill also includes raising the national debt ceiling by $4 trillion (currently at $36 trillion) to allow for more borrowing. Russell Vought, Director of the US Office of Management and Budget, said on Wednesday evening, "President Trump believes it is very important that debt extension be part of this bill." "From a philosophical perspective, both parties should support reflecting on the fact that this tool provides too much leverage to the opposition or minority party, allowing them to hold hostage a government trying to do great things for the American people," he continued. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also urged Congress to raise the US debt ceiling by mid-July to prevent default.

On the macro front, as China and the US reached a substantive consensus on easing economic and trade tensions in Geneva, the trajectory of the US's trade policies toward major economies has once again fluctuated. Despite the US Secretary of Commerce expressing the intention to finalize agreements with major trading partners before summer, President Trump recently reiterated the possibility of imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, leading to heightened market risk aversion and putting pressure on the US dollar index. The 90-day negotiation window briefly reopened between the US and the EU still faces significant uncertainty. Trump's tax reform bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, proposing a substantial increase of $4 trillion in the debt ceiling. It is expected that the scale of US debt will expand by an additional $3.3 trillion over the next decade, with the federal debt ratio potentially surging to 125% of GDP, indicating an increasingly aggressive path of fiscal expansion. In terms of monetary policy, although some Fed officials, such as Waller, lean toward initiating interest rate cuts in H2 if tariffs decline, given the frequent changes in trade policies and the potential impact of tariffs on supply chains, the market believes that the Fed is unlikely to take substantive action before July, and the pace of interest rate cuts may be delayed. This week, copper prices fluctuated rangebound as expected, with LME copper trading around $9,550-9,650/mt and SHFE copper trading around 77,700-78,500 yuan/mt. On the fundamental front, Antofagasta conducted negotiations for mid-2025 long-term contracts in Japan last week, with the initial TC offer at -$15/mt. According to market sources, the Japanese side showed low acceptance of this offer, and no specific figures were released during the first round of negotiations in China this week. Mid-week, the incident at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the DRC gradually escalated, with both major shareholders issuing statements announcing the suspension of underground mining operations, with the total impact yet to be assessed. For copper cathode, spot premiums both domestically and internationally declined this week, with no pre-holiday stocking demand evident and social inventory remaining flat overall. The SHFE backwardation structure narrowed for consecutive months, while the LME backwardation structure expanded significantly. Looking ahead to next week, macroeconomic data for May from various countries is set to be released. Affected by tariffs, it is expected that economic data for April-May will show little marginal growth overall, and copper prices are anticipated to remain flat. It is expected that LME copper will fluctuate rangebound between $9,350-9,550/mt next week, while SHFE copper will fluctuate between 77,000-78,000 yuan/mt. On the spot front, as the country gradually enters the off-season for consumption, downstream demand remains weak amid high copper prices. However, the supply of imported copper is also tight, leading to a state of weak balance with both supply and demand decreasing domestically. It is expected that spot premiums will stabilize after a slight drop. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2506 contract are expected to range from a premium of 80-150 yuan/mt.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Domestic and Overseas Lead Ingot Inventories Build Up Simultaneously, Center of Lead Price Movement Shifts Downward] From January to April, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China continued to rebound, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than that from January to March. Recently, domestic and overseas lead ingot inventories have gradually built up. In particular, new capacity of secondary lead enterprises in the domestic market has been put into operation, and supply has shown a steady upward trend. On the one hand, the increase in supply may raise the risk of inventory buildup for lead ingots...

US Treasury Secretary Bentsen warned again on Tuesday while answering questions in the House of Representatives that the US Treasury Department was on "high alert," meaning it was close to exhausting its capacity to stay within the federal debt ceiling, but he did not provide a specific timeframe. When answering questions before the House Appropriations Committee, Bentsen said, "When we believe we are approaching the so-called 'X-date,' we will share this information with Congress." He noted that the Treasury Department was still tallying tax revenues from the most recent filing quarter. The "X-date" refers to the day when the Treasury Department is unable to pay all of the government's bills on time. The US debt ceiling was reinstated in early January this year, and the US Treasury Department has since been using extraordinary accounting measures to maintain federal obligation payments while avoiding breaching the debt ceiling. Wall Street analysts estimate that the US Treasury Department may need Congress to raise or suspend the debt ceiling between August and October. Bentsen once again assured that the US government would never default on its debt and promised that the Treasury Department would not use "gimmicks" to circumvent the debt ceiling. In fact, concerns over the risks associated with the debt ceiling have already had a certain impact on the stability of the US financial system and even the decision-making of the US Fed over the past few months. The January minutes of the US Fed indicated that at that time, many participants pointed out that it might be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing down the reduction of the balance sheet until the debt ceiling issue was resolved. Ultimately, the US Fed did decide at its March policy meeting to further slow the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April: reducing the monthly redemption cap for Treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the monthly redemption cap for agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. In a letter to lawmakers in March, Bentsen stated that the Treasury Department would extend the use of extraordinary measures until June 27 to allow the federal government to pay its bills until Congress resolves the debt ceiling issue. Bentsen also noted at that time that due to "considerable uncertainty," the Treasury Department could not estimate how long the extraordinary measures and cash would last, and the department expected to provide an update to Congress in early May. Bentsen's latest remarks this week are undoubtedly a response to the latest developments regarding the debt ceiling issue. It is worth mentioning that Phillip Swagel, Director of the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO), also stated earlier this week that the US Treasury Department would likely be able to continue paying government bills until late summer, at which point Congress must take action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling. Once the US Treasury's so-called "extraordinary measures" or special accounting techniques are exhausted, the US government will face the risk of debt default unless legislators and the President agree to lift the restrictions on the government's borrowing capacity. The history of the debt ceiling dates back to 1917, when the US Congress granted the Treasury more flexibility in borrowing to finance the US's participation in World War I, but with certain limits. In 1939, Congressional legislators approved the first modern aggregate debt limit of $45 billion, and since then, as spending has consistently exceeded tax revenue, the ceiling has been raised 103 times. As of last October, public debt accounted for 98% of the US's GDP, compared to just 32% in October 2001. The US Congressional Budget Office had previously warned that the US government's debt level is likely to surpass the all-time high set after World War II in just four years, despite the nonpartisan agency slightly lowering its deficit projections for the next decade. It is projected that by 2029, the total US government debt held by the public will reach 107% of GDP, exceeding the 106% record set in 1946 (just after World War II). By 2035, total debt is expected to reach $52.1 trillion, accounting for 118.5% of GDP.