On March 31, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China’s PMI. In response, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation. In March, the manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing business activity index, and the composite PMI output index all returned to expansion territory, registering 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5%, respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points MoM, indicating a rebound in the level of economic prosperity in China. China PMI Performance in March 2026 I. Performance of China’s Manufacturing PMI In March, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points MoM and above the threshold, indicating a rebound in the prosperity level of the manufacturing sector. By enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM and above the threshold; the PMI of medium-sized and small enterprises was 49.0% and 49.3%, respectively, up 1.5 and 4.5 percentage points MoM, but still below the threshold. By sub-index, among the five sub-indices comprising the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the new orders index were both above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, the employment index, and the supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. The production index was 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points MoM, indicating faster manufacturing production activity. The new orders index was 51.6%, up 3.0 percentage points MoM, indicating a marked improvement in the prosperity level of market demand in the manufacturing sector. The raw material inventory index was 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, indicating that the decline in inventories of major raw materials in the manufacturing sector narrowed somewhat. The employment index was 48.6%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM, indicating a rebound in the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery time index was 49.5%, up 0.4 percentage points MoM and below the threshold, indicating that delivery times of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing sector lengthened compared with the previous month. II. Performance of China’s Non-Manufacturing PMI In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM and above the threshold, indicating some improvement in the prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector. By industry, the business activity index of the construction sector was 49.3%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM; the business activity index of the services sector was 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. From the perspective of the services sector, the business activity index for industries such as railway transportation, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance all remained in the relatively high expansion territory above 55.0%; the business activity index for industries such as retail, accommodation, catering, and real estate all stayed below the critical point. The new orders index was 45.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that market demand in the non-manufacturing sector pulled back somewhat. By industry, the new orders index for construction was 43.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the new orders index for services was 45.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The input price index was 52.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall price level of inputs used in the operating activities of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to rise. By industry, the input price index for construction was 52.7%, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous month; the input price index for services was 52.2%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The selling price index was 49.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point, indicating that the decline in the overall selling price level in the non-manufacturing sector narrowed. By industry, the selling price index for construction was 49.3%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; the selling price index for services was 50.0%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The employment index was 45.2%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that employment conditions among non-manufacturing enterprises pulled back. By industry, the employment index for construction was 39.1%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous month; the employment index for services was 46.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity expectations index was 54.2%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises remained optimistic about market development. By industry, the business activity expectations index for construction was 50.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity expectations index for services was 54.8%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. III. Performance of China’s Composite PMI Output Index In March, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point, indicating that the overall business activity level of production and operations among enterprises in China improved. China’s PMI Returned to Expansion Territory in March — Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, Interprets China’s PMI for March 2026 On March 31, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China’s PMI. In this regard, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation. In March, the manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing business activity index, and the composite PMI output index all returned to expansion territory, coming in at 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5%, respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in the overall economic prosperity level in China. I. The Manufacturing PMI Rose to Expansion Territory In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Chinese New Year and market activity increased, the manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4%, returning to expansion territory. (I) Production and demand expanded simultaneously. The production index and the new orders index stood at 51.4% and 51.6%, respectively, up 1.8 and 3.0 percentage points from the previous month, and both rose into expansion territory. Manufacturing enterprises stepped up production activities, and market demand improved markedly. By industry, the production index and new orders index for such industries as agricultural and sideline food processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing were both above 55.0%, and production and demand in related enterprises were released relatively quickly; the two indices for such industries as textile and apparel, chemical fibers, and rubber and plastic products remained below the critical point, with relatively weak market activity. Driven by the recovery in production and demand, enterprises’ purchase willingness strengthened, and the purchasing volume index was 50.9%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. (II) The PMI of large, medium-sized, and small enterprises all rebounded. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level rising steadily; the PMI of medium-sized and small enterprises was 49.0% and 49.3%, respectively, up 1.5 and 4.5 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level improving significantly. (III) The three key industries expanded relatively quickly. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing was 52.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above the critical point for 14 consecutive months, indicating continued positive development momentum in the industry; the PMI of equipment manufacturing and the consumer goods industry was 51.5% and 50.8%, respectively, up 1.7 and 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, and both rose to expansion territory; the PMI of high energy-consuming industries was 48.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level showing some rebound. (IV) Price indices rebounded significantly. Affected by factors such as the continued rise in prices of some bulk commodities in the recent period and the acceleration of enterprise procurement activities, the purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index stood at 63.9% and 55.4%, respectively, up 9.1 and 4.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall price level in the manufacturing market rebounded markedly. By industry, the two price indices for such industries as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, and chemical raw materials and chemical products were both above 70.0%, and the overall level of purchase and sales prices in related industries rose significantly. (5) Market expectations remained stable with a slight increase. The index of expectations for production and business activities was 53.4%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, indicating that manufacturing enterprises became somewhat more confident about near-term market developments. By industry, the index of expectations for production and business activities in sectors such as special-purpose equipment, automobiles, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and other industries remained in a relatively high expansion range above 56.0%, and the related enterprises were more optimistic about future industry development. The survey results also showed that, affected by factors such as the current geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, prices of related raw materials such as petroleum and chemicals rose sharply. Coupled with higher logistics freight rates, the proportion of enterprises reporting high raw material costs and high logistics costs both increased MoM this month. II. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Rebounded In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM, indicating an improvement in the prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector. (1) The service sector business activity index rose above the threshold. The service sector business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. By industry, the business activity indexes for railway transportation, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance all remained in a relatively high expansion range above 55.0%, with total business volume growing relatively fast; after Chinese New Year, the business activity indexes for retail, accommodation, catering, and other industries related to residents' travel and consumption fell below the threshold, and market activity weakened somewhat. In terms of market expectations, the service sector business activity expectations index was 54.8%, continuing to remain at a relatively high level, indicating that service sector enterprises remained optimistic about near-term market developments. (2) The construction sector business activity index improved. As construction projects across various regions gradually resumed work after the holiday, the construction sector business activity index was 49.3%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM. In terms of market expectations, the construction sector business activity expectations index was 50.5%, above the threshold, indicating that construction enterprises remained confident about future industry development. III. The Composite PMI Output Index Rose Above the Threshold In March, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 1.0 percentage points MoM, indicating that the overall level of production and business activity across China's enterprises continued to improve. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which together constitute the composite PMI output index, were 51.4% and 50.1%, respectively.

As expectations for the peak-season demand in the “Golden March” gradually begin to materialize, galvanizing operating rates are rising. Can downstream consumption sustain its peak-season performance going forward?

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. On the first day after the holiday resumption, due to the impact of overseas risk events during the long holiday—primarily the US's plan to impose new tariffs on approximately six industries (including large batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment) and the escalation of US-Iran tensions—overall sentiment fluctuated significantly, and ferrous futures also touched recent lows. Mid-week, with some steel mills in the Tangshan area receiving notifications for voluntary emission reductions during the Two Sessions, coupled with Shanghai's adjustment of housing purchase restrictions and rumors of favorable real estate policies during the Two Sessions, futures rebounded from lows, showing significant sector resonance effects. However, as the weekend approached, no new favorable policies emerged, and futures retreated once again.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,957/mt and weakened slightly during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it continued to decline, probing a low of $1,950.5/mt, then rose to fluctuate near the daily moving average, ultimately closing at $1,959.5/mt, up $7.5/mt, a gain of 0.38%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,655 yuan/mt. After the session began, it dipped to a low of 16,650 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, lightly touching a high of 16,840 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,745 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.12%. On the macro front: The Trump administration is considering imposing new "national security tariffs" on six industries. According to informed sources, the tariffs under consideration may cover industries such as large-scale batteries, pig iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment. These tariffs would be levied under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The new US tariffs on the six major industries will be implemented separately from the new global 15% tariff. Regarding recent US tariff adjustment measures, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated that China is closely monitoring and will comprehensively assess the relevant US measures. Subsequently, depending on the situation, China will decide at an appropriate time to adjust its countermeasures against US-origin fentanyl tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was offered at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2603 contract. Today was the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday. Suppliers gradually resumed work and attempted to offer prices for shipments. Some with higher prices offered at a premium of 150 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2603 contract, while those eager to clear inventory directly sold at a discount, with transactions reaching a minimum discount of 100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2603 contract. SHFE lead got off to a good start on its first trading day. Additionally, as it is late February, suppliers were mostly actively shipping goods, while downstream enterprises were in the initial stages of resuming work, resulting in limited inquiries. Only a few enterprises restocked based on rigid demand, and initial transactions began to emerge in the market. Inventory: On February 24, LME lead inventory was recorded at 286,325 mt, unchanged from the previous day. As of February 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM accumulated, with the total amount jumping to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: As enterprises across the lead industry chain gradually resumed work after the Chinese New Year holiday, lead consumption was temporarily absent because lead-acid battery enterprises had longer holidays than smelters. This led to accumulated lead ingot inventory at smelters after the holiday, which was transferred to social inventory. The first day after the holiday was the delivery date for the SHFE lead 2602 contract. Suppliers had gradually completed inventory transfers and shipments to delivery warehouses during the holiday, leading to an expected accumulation in social warehouse inventory, which surpassed the 60,000-mt mark. Downstream enterprises had not fully resumed work this week, and the lead ingot inventory reserved by most enterprises before the holiday could be maintained until around the Lantern Festival. In the short term, social lead ingot inventory will remain high. Follow-up attention is still needed on the recovery of lead consumption and the pace of secondary refined lead supply restoration. In the short term, lead prices may still be under pressure amid accumulating inventory.

SMM Nickel Market News on February 24: Macro and Market News: (1) On February 23, US media reported that the US government is considering imposing new tariffs on approximately six industries on the grounds of "national security." The proposed tariffs may cover large-scale batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment. These new tariffs will be implemented separately from the recently announced global 15% tariff measures. (2) A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: At the invitation of Premier Li Qiang of the State Council, German Chancellor Merz will pay an official visit to China from February 25 to 26. Spot Market: On February 24, the price range for SMM #1 refined nickel was 137,300-147,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 142,500 yuan/mt, up 2,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 8,300-9,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 8,900 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: On the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday, the nickel market got off to a good start. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) opened higher and continued to rise, showing strong performance. By the end of the morning session, it was quoted at 138,590 yuan/mt, up 1.77%. During the holiday, LME nickel prices rose slightly, and the SHFE nickel market saw a catch-up rally today. During the holiday, a landslide occurred at the IMIP industrial park in Indonesia, resulting in casualties and further intensifying market concerns over supply disruptions. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to break through the 140,000 yuan/mt level again, but upside potential remains constrained by high inventory.

On the 23rd local time, US media reported that the US government is considering imposing new tariffs on about six industries on the grounds of "national security." The proposed tariffs may cover industries such as large batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment. These new tariffs will be implemented separately from the recently announced global 15% tariff measures.