Policy Intensity Reshaping the Landscape, Costs Returning to Highs, and Structural Tightening of Market Supply

[SMM Analysis] Reassessing the Logic Behind Sulfur's "Surge" Driving Nickel Prices Higher

North American lithium producer Elevra Lithium Limited has announced that it will sell its entire interest in the Ewoyaa Lithium Project in Ghana to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Ltd. Under the agreement, the transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, with Elevra receiving approximately US$71 million in cash (before fees and taxes). The sale includes all of its rights and interests in the project, as well as associated offtake rights. Meanwhile, Huayou also plans to acquire Atlantic Lithium Limited to gain full control of the project, although the two transactions are independent of each other. The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals in Ghana.

The Indonesian government reaffirmed plans to implement export duties and a windfall profit tax on low-processed nickel products, triggering a sharp rally in global metal markets. The policy aims to curb under-invoicing and smuggling while recouping state subsidies used to build the nation’s downstream industry. Following the announcement, SHFE nickel futures surged over 3.5% today, while LME nickel jumped to approximately $19,900/mt, a 2.1% daily gain. With the cost floor rising, Asian stainless steel futures have now gained over 10% since early April, reflecting a broader bullish trend across base metals.

According to SMM's on-site survey, Zambian copper smelters currently face a significant price spread between domestic sales and exports of sulphuric acid: domestic sales were priced at approximately $300/mt, while exports to the DRC were quoted at approximately $1,200/mt DDP, with freight, customs clearance, and taxes totaling approximately $200-300/mt.

The performance of the gold price in March surprised many investors, as the precious metal recorded significant price declines despite geopolitical escalations.