Indonesia's new nickel tariffs and Europe's CBAM have sharply raised overseas stainless steel costs, driving Asian mills to hike prices. Downstream demand remains mixed: Japan and South Korea are resilient, while the Taiwan, China region faces pressure. Wary of rapid price spikes, buyers are limiting purchases to rigid demand. The market will remain cautious until tariff details and actual demand are validated.

According to customs data, the total import volume of lithium spodumene in China from January to February 2026 was approximately 1.39 million physical tonnes: January imports reached 832,000 physical tonnes, up nearly 6% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year, equivalent to about 84,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE); February imports stood at 558,000 physical tonnes, down 33% month-on-month and approximately 2% year-on-year, equivalent to about 50,000 tonnes of LCE. Overall, the arrival volume in January reached an exceptionally high level, mainly due to the tight supply of lithium salts in the fourth quarter of 2025, which drove strong production enthusiasm among domestic lithium spodumene smelters and consequently led to a high demand for lithium ore. In February, arrivals declined due to the Chinese New Year holiday and potential vessel delays. By country of origin, Australia saw a 17% month-on-month recovery in January arrivals, significantly rebounding, supported by improved shipments from November to December 2025. However, after entering January, at the beginning of the quarter, Australian miners adopted a wait-and-see attitude toward lithium prices for the new year, leading to lower shipments. Combined with the Chinese New Year factor in February, arrivals in February decreased by 23% month-on-month. Zimbabwe entered the rainy season after October last year, resulting in a slight decline in concentrate output. Coupled with adjustments to export tax rates and the accounting period at the beginning of the year, arrivals fell by 35% and 18% month-on-month in January and February, respectively. Nigeria has seen a continuous rise in arrivals since June 2025, maintaining high levels. South Africa performed notably well, with arrivals remaining above 100,000 physical tonnes for three consecutive months from December 2025 to February 2026. In contrast, Brazil saw persistently low arrivals in January and February this year, as certain mines had not yet resumed production from October to December last year. Additionally, according to screening and analysis using the SMM model, lithium spodumene imports in January corresponded to approximately 84,000 tonnes of LCE, with lithium concentrate amounting to 636,000 physical tonnes, accounting for 76%. In February, lithium spodumene imports corresponded to 50,000 tonnes of LCE, with lithium concentrate amounting to 438,000 physical tonnes, accounting for 79%.

Since March 4, 2026, secondary copper rod has shifted to a premium of 200-400 yuan/mt against the most-traded futures contract. Meanwhile, the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod narrowed sharply from around 1,200 yuan/mt to about 300 yuan/mt

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (March 9–March 13), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 534 yuan/gram and closed at 541.6 yuan/gram, down 15.7 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, a decline of 2.82%. The weekly highest price was 577.85 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 522.6 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 408.75 yuan/gram and closed at 408.1 yuan/gram, down 13.8 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, down 3.27% WoW from last week’s settlement price. The weekly highest price was 430 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 397 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 recorded total trading volume of 31,227 lots during the week, with total turnover of 17.368 billion yuan and open interest of 19,989 lots; open interest decreased by 1,894 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 recorded total trading volume of 11,077 lots during the week, with total turnover of 4.616 billion yuan and open interest of 7,612 lots; open interest increased by 11 lots WoW. At present, the US–Iran conflict remained dominated by political expectations, while the reality on the ground was still unresolved. On the political-expectations front, Trump frequently released marginal de-escalation signals to curb oil prices, saying the Iran issue was only a short-term military operation and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran; the TACO trade pulled oil prices back to around 90. On the reality front, Mojtaba, son of Khamenei, formally succeeded to power, and Iran entered the “Era of Avengers,” beginning to threaten the Strait of Hormuz; its foreign minister said the new leadership would refuse to negotiate with Trump. If the US–Iran conflict continues to escalate, it will push up oil prices and trigger concerns over imported inflation in the US, thereby delaying the Fed’s progress on interest rate cuts. On tariffs, after reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration will seek a more solid legal basis to rebuild the tariff framework. The risk of re-inflation remained relatively high, and disputes over new tax rates and tax rebates lifted policy uncertainty to some extent. In the short term, Trump filled the tariff-rate vacuum through the 122 temporary tariff; in the medium and long-term, he may maintain a high-tariff framework via 232 and 301. In addition, the massive tax rebate pressure brought about after reciprocal tariff was ruled illegal will further increase the US fiscal burden, thereby reinforcing the logic of a weaker US dollar and providing support to precious metals overall. Supply side, NERSA announced it had formally approved Eskom’s electricity price adjustment plan for the next two years: electricity prices will be raised by 8.76% in April this year and raised again by 8.83% in April 2027. As South Africa’s PGM mining is highly dependent on electricity, rising electricity prices will continue to lift the cost center for platinum and palladium. The US Department of Commerce issued an announcement, making an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping determination on unwrought palladium imported from Russia, preliminarily determining the dumping margin for all Russian exporters/producers at 132.83%. In terms of valuation, watch changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Pay attention to details on the new administrator announced by the LME. Pay attention to the March 19 FOMC meeting, changes in economic data, and the impact of Wosh’s remarks on monetary policy expectations. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the policy and political-environment tug-of-war during the US Fed’s midterm-election time window. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the foundation for a bull market in platinum and palladium remained intact. In the short term, be alert to the risk of a phased adjustment driven by a delay in expectations for an interest rate cut; pullbacks should be viewed as medium- and long-term opportunities to add long positions. Amid high fluctuations in platinum and palladium, pay attention to position sizing. As domestic and overseas markets are not continuous, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overseas night session; investors should monitor trading prices in international markets and be wary of opening gaps. Spot market, this week most traders holding cargo actively quoted prices. Some traders reported that supply was currently relatively ample while the market was relatively sluggish. Most downstream clients had sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines, with only some downstream buyers making small, negotiated purchases to meet order demand. Along with continued cooling in investment demand, transactions were relatively difficult and price involution was severe. Overall, spot market trading this week was generally subdued.

According to the Mining Journal, the Ecuadorian government intends to implement a new mining tax aimed at bridging the fiscal gap, but it may deal a severe blow to the exploration sector. The proposed mining inspection fee (Tasa de Fiscalización Minera) is expected to generate $229 million in annual tax revenue for Ecuador, with the intention of strengthening technical and environmental monitoring of the industry. This tax applies to all levels of mining activities, except for small-scale mining. The Ecuadorian Mining Chamber (CME) has strongly criticized this move, stating, "This matter was never consulted with the industry, and we believe it represents a significant technical obstacle to the responsible and sustainable development of the mining sector." While acknowledging the need for enhanced state control and industry regulation, the CME has criticized the structure of the tax. It is levied per hectare, with different tax rates for projects at various stages. The CME claims, "For medium-to-large-scale mining projects, especially those in the exploration phase, this approach is not feasible." The final tax amount may exceed the exploration investment of the project, the CME added. "This makes regulation an obstacle rather than a tool." Ecuador's largest mining projects include Lundin Gold's Fruta del Norte gold mine and EcuaCorriente's Mirador copper-gold mine. Exploration The CME has also criticized the new tax for imposing additional financial burdens on non-revenue-generating exploration companies, which are in the most vulnerable growth phase. "Although we understand that, as an administrative fee, it does not require formal legal authorization, it must adhere to the constitutional principles of appropriateness, reasonableness, and equality. From its design, this fee is unrelated to the cost of the services it provides or the economic capacity of taxpayers, and it may have an extraordinary impact on exploration activities," the CME stated. The CME's analysis indicates that this fee will make Ecuador less competitive in exploration compared to other Latin American countries. Ecuador's fee is $11.5 per hectare, while Colombia's is $6.7, Chile's is $4.5, and Peru's is $3. "Ecuador is the most expensive country for exploration in the region, and the new tax makes this difference even more pronounced," the CME said. In 2024, exploration investment in Ecuador was $67 million, compared to $493 million in Argentina, $568 million in Peru, and $637 million in Chile. In other aspects, the cost of mine construction in Ecuador is relatively high. Although the country provides mining investors with the ability to sign investment protection agreements, thereby stabilizing their financial situations, its mining law adopts a floating royalty rate that varies between 3% and 8% depending on changes in metal prices. Under the current gold and copper prices, mining companies are facing the situation of the highest royalty rate.

More and more Wall Street investment banks have recently reiterated their forecasts that the US dollar will weaken further due to interest rate cuts, a slowdown in economic growth, and the trade and tax policies of US President Trump. Morgan Stanley has stated that the dollar will fall to its lowest level during the COVID-19 pandemic by the middle of next year; JPMorgan Chase is similarly bearish on the dollar; Goldman Sachs has indicated that if tariff measures are blocked, Washington's efforts to seek alternative sources of revenue could have an even more negative impact on the dollar. "We believe that a medium-term narrative around dollar depreciation is taking shape," said Aroop Chatterjee, a strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. On Monday, amid escalating global trade tensions, the dollar fell against all G10 currencies once again. Currently, the ICE US Dollar Index has accumulated an 8.9% decline year-to-date. According to Dow Jones Market Data, this represents the worst performance for the index in the first five months of the year on record. The Traditional Carry Trade Logic Has Been Upended It is worth noting that one of the most striking aspects of the dollar's continued weakness this year is the near disappearance of the traditional carry trade logic in the foreign exchange market. Due to President Trump's erratic policies, investor interest in US assets has cooled, and the traditional close relationship between US Treasury yields and the dollar has broken down. In the past, the movement of long-term US Treasury yields, which measure government borrowing costs, tended to move in tandem with the dollar exchange rate, with higher yields typically indicating a strong economy and attracting foreign capital inflows. However, since Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April this year, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen from 4.16% to 4.42%, yet the dollar has declined by 4.7% against a basket of currencies. Last month, the correlation between the dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields fell to its lowest level in nearly three years. Shahab Jalinoos, head of G10 FX strategy at UBS Group, said, "Under normal circumstances, a rise in US Treasury yields indicates a strong US economy. This is attractive for capital inflows into the US." However, he also noted that "if yields rise due to higher US debt risks, fiscal concerns, and policy uncertainty, then the dollar will weaken simultaneously. This pattern is actually quite common in emerging markets." And currently, the situation facing the dollar is undoubtedly the latter. Trump's aggressive push for the "Big Beautiful Bill" could exacerbate the US budget deficit, coupled with Moody's recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, has made investors more concerned about the sustainability of the deficit and has placed severe pressure on US Treasury prices. Analysis by Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo, shows that the credit default swap (CDS) spreads of the US government—a trading level reflecting the cost of hedging against loan default risks—are now similar to those of Greece and Italy. These two countries were once the "epicenters" of the European debt crisis. Trump's attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell have also unsettled the market. He met with Powell last week and told the Fed Chairman that it was a mistake not to have implemented an interest rate cut so far this year. The US dollar has significant downside room. Michael de Pass, global head of interest rate trading at Citadel Securities, said, "In the past, the strength of the US dollar was partly derived from the integrity of its institutions: the rule of law, the independence of the central bank, and the predictability of policies. These factors made the US dollar a reserve currency." But he added, "In the past three months, these have all become issues. A major concern in the market currently is that the institutional credibility of the US dollar is being eroded." The divergence between US Treasury yields and the US dollar indicates that the market's traditional carry trade pattern has changed significantly in recent years—when expectations about the direction of monetary policy and economic growth were key drivers of government borrowing costs and exchange rate movements. Andreas Koenig, global head of foreign exchange at Allianz Global Investors, said that the new pattern may increase the risks faced by investors seeking safe-haven assets. He said, "This changes everything. In the past few years, holding long positions in the US dollar in a portfolio had been a very good stabilizing factor. When the US dollar was a stabilizing factor, you had a stable portfolio. But if the US dollar suddenly becomes correlated with other asset classes, that increases risk." Open interest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that market participants' bearish sentiment toward the US dollar is still far from extreme levels, underscoring that the US dollar may still face significant downward pressure in the future. JPMorgan strategists led by Meera Chandan strengthened their negative view on the US dollar last week, instead recommending bets on the Japanese yen, euro, and Australian dollar. Morgan Stanley also listed the euro, yen, and Swiss franc as the biggest winners from a US dollar decline. Skylar Montgomery Koning, currency strategist at Barclays, said that the US dollar's headwinds may come from further weakness in the bond market, an escalation of trade wars, and weak US data. Paresh Upadhyaya, head of foreign exchange strategy and portfolio manager at Amundi Pioneer Asset Management, expects that the Bloomberg Dollar Index will depreciate by another 10% over the next 12 months. "Capital Tax" Adds Insult to Injury For Goldman Sachs, another major risk that could further exacerbate the outlook for the US dollar is Trump's potential "next move" against foreign enterprises and investors—namely, the "Section 899" of the "Grand Beautiful Bill" mentioned by many market participants last week. As Caixin reported last week, this section would allow the US to impose additional taxes on enterprises and investors from countries deemed to have punitive tax policies. In other words, if a country is identified by the US Treasury Department as engaging in "unfair taxation," entities from that country—including enterprises, residents, and even overseas controlled companies held by these individuals or enterprises—may face higher tax rates on their investments and business activities within the US. Goldman Sachs strategists, including Kamakshya Trivedi and Michael Cahill, wrote in a report that even though the scope of application of this tool is relatively narrow, at a time when investors are already viewing the shift in cross-asset correlations as a reason to avoid US assets and seek greater diversification, such tools will still exacerbate investors' concerns about US investment risks. In another report, Goldman Sachs strategists stated that their models indicate the US dollar is overvalued by about 15%, suggesting there is further downside room. They added that this decline could be driven by the reallocation and repricing of global assets. Goldman Sachs strategists believe that investors should prepare for a weaker US dollar—especially depreciation against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc, which have all appreciated in recent months. They also pointed out that these new risks provide a strong rationale for allocating some funds to gold. Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro strategy at Morgan Stanley, also said in a media interview on Monday, " Investors outside the US are reevaluating their exposure to the US —both in terms of asset holdings and the currency risk exposure associated with these asset holdings. They have increased their hedging ratios, which is one of the factors contributing to downward pressure on the US dollar over the next 12 months." The bank forecasts that the US dollar index will fall by about 9%, reaching 91 by this time next year. Shahab Jalinoos, a strategist at UBS, pointed out, "The greater the policy uncertainty, the more likely investors are to increase their hedging ratios. If hedging ratios increase based on the existing stock of US dollar assets, this could lead to billions of dollars in selling." "