From Jan to May in 2025, the number of electric vehicles registered in countries around the world was approximately 7.520 million units, about 32.4% increase from the same period last year (5.682 mil units).

The World Bank released its latest Global Economic Prospects report on Tuesday, arguing that heightened uncertainty and high tariffs pose "significant headwinds" to the growth prospects of nearly all economies, leading to a substantial downward revision of its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%. Specifically, the World Bank projects global GDP growth for 2025 at 2.3%, a 0.4 percentage point reduction from its earlier forecast at the beginning of the year, while global GDP growth for 2024 was 2.8%. Since taking office, Trump has raised the US effective tariff rate from less than 3% to nearly 15%, the highest level in nearly a century, contributing to global trade tensions. The World Bank is the latest institution to lower its growth forecast due to Trump's erratic trade policies, despite US officials' insistence that a surge in investment and impending tax cuts will offset these negative consequences. Although the World Bank does not anticipate a recession, it expects global economic growth to be sluggish this year, which, excluding the exceptional year of 2020 (during the pandemic), will be the weakest since the global financial crisis. The report projects global trade growth for 2025 at 1.8%, down from 3.4% in 2024. This forecast is based on tariffs in effect as of the end of May, including the US's 10% benchmark tariff on imports from most countries, but excluding the currently suspended reciprocal tariffs. Economic models suggest that, on top of the already implemented 10% tariffs, a 10 percentage point increase in the average US tariff rate, coupled with retaliation from other countries, could further reduce global GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2025. An escalation of the tariff war would lead to a stagnation in global trade in the second half of this year... followed by a widespread collapse in confidence, a surge in uncertainty, and financial market volatility. Despite this, the World Bank states that the risk of a global recession is less than 10%. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist, said, "Uncertainty remains a powerful headwind, like fog on a runway, slowing investment and casting a shadow over the outlook." However, Kose noted signs of increased dialogue on trade, which could help dispel uncertainty, and that supply chains are adapting to the new global trade landscape rather than collapsing. He mentioned that global trade growth could see a mild rebound to 2.4% in 2026, and that the development of artificial intelligence could also drive growth. "We believe that uncertainty will eventually decline, and once the fog clears, the trade engine may restart, albeit at a slower pace," he said. In developed countries, due to increased trade barriers, record-breaking uncertainty, and heightened financial market volatility, the World Bank expects the US economy to grow by 1.4% in 2025. In January this year, the institution had forecast a 2.3% growth for the US economy in 2025. The economic outlook for the Eurozone is relatively bleak, with an expected growth rate of 0.7% this year; Japan's growth rate is expected to be 0.4% this year. As a whole, emerging markets and developing countries are expected to grow by 3.8% this year, down from the 4.1% forecast in January. Mexico, which heavily relies on trade with the US, has seen its growth forecast for 2025 revised down by 1.3 percentage points to 0.2%.

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned that global stock markets are approaching a technical "sell" signal after hitting new highs this week. He believes that a 20% surge in just two months indicates an overheated market. Hartnett cited data on fund flows and market breadth as evidence that investors are pouring into risky assets, with position allocations becoming increasingly stretched. Traders typically view this phenomenon as a bearish signal, as it may suggest that the market's buying power is nearing exhaustion, making prices vulnerable to corrections. Hartnett pointed out that data shows inflows into stocks and high-yield bonds have reached 0.9% of total assets over the past four weeks. He said that if this figure rises above 1%, it would be a sell signal for investors. Meanwhile, Hartnett said the market is also approaching an "overbought" zone. Currently, about 84% of national stock indices are trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and when this ratio reaches 88%, it will trigger his sell condition. The report also cited data from EPFR Global, stating that global equity funds have attracted inflows of approximately $515 billion year-to-date, on track to record the second-highest annual inflows in history. On a weekly basis, cash funds attracted inflows of $94.8 billion this week, the highest level since January. Bank of America's data suggests that traders are uneasy about the recent rapid pace of stock market gains. The US stock market has recently rebounded sharply, with the S&P 500 index closing above 6,000 points on Friday for the first time since February 26. The Trump administration's tax cut policies, a more lenient stance on tariffs, and robust economic data have collectively fueled market optimism. It should be noted that Hartnett has been bearish on US stocks this year and has called for investors to prioritize bond allocations. In a report on May 8, he said that the current rebound in US stocks may have already ended. However, since then, the S&P 500 index has risen by about 6% over a one-month period.

On Thursday (June 5), spot gold traded around $3,380 during the day, not far from the multi-week high touched on Tuesday. Currently, the market is on the sidelines ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report, with gold bulls continuing to build momentum for a breakout, supported by fundamental factors. Fundamentals The latest economic data released by the US has been generally weak, providing short-term support for gold. ADP employment data showed that only 37,000 jobs were added in the US private sector in May, the lowest since March 2023. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9, marking the first time it has entered contraction territory since June last year. The weakening of both employment and services data has strengthened market expectations that the US Fed will further cut interest rates in 2025. At the same time, US Treasury yields have declined, with both the two-year and ten-year yields falling to their lowest levels since early May, reflecting market recognition of the future path of monetary easing. The expansion of the fiscal deficit and market concerns about Trump's new round of tax cut bills have also weighed on the US dollar, further boosting the appeal of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. In addition, global geopolitical risks are also heating up. According to Reuters, the situation in Ukraine has not yet eased, and the US has vetoed the UN proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza for the fifth time, keeping gold's safe-haven demand at a high level. Ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report, the market is generally cautious, with bullish and bearish forces temporarily locked in a stalemate. Technical Analysis: From the daily chart, gold is currently oscillating between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, still in a consolidation phase within an overall uptrend. After breaking above $3,300, the price has temporarily faced resistance at the $3,430 level, which is a previous high area and also corresponds to the short-term resistance represented by the upper Bollinger Band. Analysts believe that if there is a subsequent breakout with increased volume above $3,430, it is expected to challenge the high of $3,499.83 again. In terms of the MACD indicator, the fast line (DIFF) and the slow line (DEA) are above the zero axis, showing a mild golden cross. The histogram has turned slightly positive, with momentum beginning to recover, suggesting the possibility of further short-term strengthening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 58, with no overbought signals appearing, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly bullish market sentiment, leaving room for subsequent gains. From an overall structural perspective, gold is exhibiting a clear sideways consolidation pattern, with support at the $3,300 level and resistance at the $3,430 level. Once a breakout occurs, there is potential for further upside. Market Sentiment Observation The current market sentiment is cautious but not pessimistic. Although bulls lack decisive driving forces, overall open interest still reflects a preference for safe-haven assets. Market expectations for an inflection point in US interest rate policies are becoming increasingly clear, while sentiment toward geopolitical events is also heating up. Despite traders remaining on the sidelines ahead of the release of the NFP data, analysts believe that any pullback will be seen as a buying opportunity, indicating that the market consensus still leans toward a medium-term bullish outlook for gold. Outlook Short-term outlook: The short-term trend of gold depends on the performance of the NFP data on Friday. If non-farm payrolls continue to weaken, it will trigger gold to break through the resistance level of $3,430 and rapidly test the previous high of $3,499. Conversely, if the data unexpectedly strengthens, there may be a possibility of retesting the support level of $3,300. Medium and long-term outlook: Against the backdrop of escalating global political uncertainties and strengthened expectations for a policy shift by the US Fed, the probability of gold maintaining an upward trend is relatively high. Especially under the expectation of marginal easing of US dollar liquidity, gold's dual role as a safe-haven asset and a hedge will continue to be favoured by the market.

SMM May 30 Report: Metal Market: Overnight, metals in both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME nickel rose by 2.56%, and SHFE nickel increased by 1.25%. LME tin fell by 2.48%, and LME lead dropped by 1.11%. SHFE tin decreased by 2.28%, while the price changes of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina futures contract remained flat at 2,954 yuan/mt. The ferrous metals series also showed mixed performance. Stainless steel rose by 0.39%, iron ore increased by 0.35%, and rebar gained 0.07%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 1.96%, and coke dropped by 1.31%. In the precious metals sector, as of the overnight close, COMEX gold rose by 0.61%, and COMEX silver increased by 0.84%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.96%, and SHFE silver increased by 0.28%. Overnight closing prices as of 8:14 AM on May 30 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Developments: [Preview: The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) will hold its regular May press conference from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM on May 30] The CCPIT will organize its regular May press conference at its auditorium from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM on May 30 (Friday). Zhao Ping, the CCPIT spokesperson, will release the following: the Global Economic and Trade Friction Index for March 2025, commercial certification data from the national trade promotion system for April 2025, the "Business Environment Report on Japan 2024" and the "Business Environment Report on South Korea 2024", outcomes of the 2025 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit, and a preview of events for the Osaka Expo, among others. Zhang Yuzhuo, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), visited the China Automotive Technology & Research Center Co., Ltd. to investigate the company's business development, technological innovation, and Party building work. Zhang Yuzhuo emphasized the need to strive for breakthroughs and master more key core technologies, consolidate the foundation of industrial technology, leverage the leading role of industry standards, and support national automobile brands in better "going global." On May 29, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. Spokesperson He Yongqian stated that the EU had initiated an anti-dumping investigation into China's passenger car and light truck tire products, to which China expressed great concern. China has consistently advocated for the reasonable and prudent use of trade remedy measures and urged the EU not to hastily impose trade restrictions, but rather to resolve mutual concerns through dialogue and consultation with China. China will closely monitor the EU's subsequent actions and resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. US Dollar Developments: The US dollar fell by 0.52% overnight as investors prepared for the showdown between US President Trump and the US Court of International Trade's ruling, which blocked most of the proposed tariffs on Wednesday. According to CCTV News, on May 29 local time, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit granted the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend a previous ruling by the US Court of International Trade that prohibited the enforcement of an executive order by the Trump administration to impose additional tariffs on multiple countries under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit also ordered both parties to submit written arguments on the issue of blocking the imposition of tariffs, with relevant documents due to be submitted by early next month. The court will then decide on the next steps. The US dollar showed a relatively small reaction to this news. Concerns that tariffs would lead to an economic slowdown and reignite inflation had weakened the US dollar, while the erratic nature of Trump's policies was seen as diminishing the appeal of US assets to foreign investors. Due to fears of rising inflation, the US Fed had been holding off, as Fed officials were waiting to see how trade policies would affect the US economy. During a private meeting at the White House on Thursday, Trump told Fed Chairman Powell that it was a "mistake" not to cut interest rates, expressing in person a view he had made public several times over the past few months. Earlier this week, after Trump postponed plans over the weekend to impose 50% tariffs on EU imports, US economic pessimism had eased somewhat. Data released by the US showed that the increase in initial jobless claims last week exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate in May appeared to have rebounded somewhat, indicating that as tariffs cast a shadow over the economic outlook, the number of layoffs continued to rise, weakening the US dollar as a result. Investors were also monitoring the progress of tax cut and spending bills under consideration in Congress. Amid growing concerns about the deterioration of the US fiscal outlook, yields on longer-term US Treasuries rose last week, and demand for the Treasury's 20-year bond auction was weak. In other currency news: The euro rose 0.73% against the US dollar in New York late trading, closing at $1.1374, after dipping to $1.1209, its lowest level since May 19. The US dollar fell 0.57% against the Japanese yen, closing at 143.99 yen. Earlier, it had reached 146.28 yen, its highest level since May 15. The US dollar fell 0.59% against the Swiss franc, closing at 0.822. Earlier this week, the yen also weakened against the US dollar amid reports that Japan would consider cutting the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds following a recent sharp rise in yields. In terms of data: Today, data including the monthly rate of US personal spending in April, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April, the annual rate of the US PCE price index in April, the preliminary monthly rate of US wholesale inventories in April, the Chicago PMI for May, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May, the annual rate of Tokyo CPI in Japan for May, the unemployment rate in Japan for April, the monthly rate of actual retail sales in Germany for April, the annual rate of actual retail sales in Germany for April, the preliminary annual rate of Germany's CPI for May, the annual rate of seasonally adjusted M3 money supply in the eurozone for April, the annualized quarterly rate of Canada's Q1 GDP, the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of Canada's Q1 GDP, and the annual rate of Canada's seasonally adjusted GDP for March will be released. Additionally, on May 30, the Taiwan Stock Exchange in China was closed for the day due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) in China had no night session trading on the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver the opening remarks at the Fifth Annual Online Symposium on Macroeconomics and Finance hosted by the Federal Reserve. Crude oil: Oil prices in both markets rose overnight, with US crude and Brent crude both falling by 1.49%. Investors weighed the potential impact of possible changes in the global trade landscape. The market is also monitoring the possibility of the US imposing new sanctions to curb the flow of Russian crude oil, as well as whether OPEC+ will decide to increase production in July. According to CCTV News, on May 28 local time, a CCTV reporter learned that the US Court of International Trade had blocked the implementation of the tariff policy announced by US President Trump on "Liberation Day" on April 2, ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing across-the-board tariffs on countries that export more to the US than they import. Driven by this news, oil prices rose at the beginning of the trading session. The ruling boosted risk appetite in global markets, but analysts said that given the US government's stated intention to appeal, this relief in pressure may only be temporary. Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates, a US energy consulting firm, said in a report, "One interpretation of this reaction is that not much has changed, and the uncertainty that has persisted since the implementation of US tariff measures will continue." Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Thursday that developments in Russia and Iran are a "question mark" for oil prices, putting pressure on crude oil futures. In terms of oil supply, OPEC+, which consists of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, may agree to accelerate production increases in July. ING analysts said in a report, "We expect the group to agree to another significant supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day. We anticipate such increases to continue until the end of Q3, as the group is placing greater emphasis on maintaining market share." However, concerns about new sanctions on Russian crude oil persist. Mukesh Sahdev, Global Head of Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy, said in a report, "From May to August, the data shows a constructive bullish bias, with demand expected to exceed supply." He expects demand growth to outpace supply growth by 600,000-700,000 barrels per day. Crude oil futures narrowed some of their losses on Thursday. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 2.8 million barrels in the latest week, declining to 440.4 million barrels, which contributed to crude oil futures narrowing some of their losses on Thursday. Analysts had previously expected crude oil inventory to increase by 118,000 barrels last week. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME copper was closed overnight. The SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 77,740 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 78,340 yuan/mt and a low of 77,710 yuan/mt during the session. The closing price was 78,150 yuan/mt. The overall trend fluctuated upward. The price increase was 0.31%, with a trading volume of 26,894 lots and an open interest of 157,842 lots.