As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel stands at $17,341/mt Ni, and Indonesian MHP cobalt at $51,393/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 89-90, with the MHP cobalt payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) at 95. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $17,430/mt Ni.

A 7.9-magnitude earthquake struck off the southern coast of the Philippines’ Mindanao island on Monday morning (June 8th), triggering regional tsunami warnings but causing only limited, localized disruptions to nickel operations. SMM’s communication with local miners indicates that while one operator within the directly affected southern zone has temporarily suspended cargo loading bound for Indonesia due to the tsunami warning, the major producing hubs in the Surigao and others report no current impact, with production and shipping maintaining normal operations.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,788/mt, touched a high of $13,803/mt at the beginning of the session, then the copper price center continuously moved downward, dipping to $13,499.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $13,517/mt, a decline of 2.78%. Trading volume reached 25,200 lots, and open interest was 273,000 lots, increasing by 1,576 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bearish positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded LME copper contract 2607 opened at 104,790 yuan/mt, rose to 105,000 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward throughout the session, dipping to 103,600 yuan/mt near the end, and finally settled at 103,800 yuan/mt, a decline of 1.84%. Trading volume reached 62,000 lots, and open interest was 167,000 lots, decreasing by 6,309 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bullish positions.

Futures: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $2,015/mt, edged down slightly during Asian hours, then moved sideways in a narrow range of $2,006.5-2,012/mt; in the European session, it gradually strengthened on fund buying, touching a high of $2,018.5/mt, but met significant overhead resistance, pulled back toward the close, dipped to $1,999/mt, and finally settled at $1,995/mt. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,380 yuan/mt, briefly surged to 16,455 yuan/mt in early trading before coming under pressure and pulling back. It then fluctuated downward, breaking below the daily average line support, hitting a low of 16,365 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 16,405 yuan/mt, ending as a small bearish candlestick, down 30 yuan/mt or 0.18%. On the macro front: Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, Iran responded with missile attacks, and Trump urgently intervened. US May non-farm payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 172,000, and the market fully priced in a 25bp rate hike by the Fed before year-end. Trump: There is no reason for the Fed to raise rates; the jobs report is very strong, stocks should go up, and economic growth does not mean inflation. Iran denied that it had agreed to transfer some enriched uranium to a third country. OPEC+ seven countries will raise production targets by 188,000 barrels per day from July. Putin rejected Zelenskiy’s “talks” proposal, saying it was meaningless. Sources: The US government is considering taking stakes in AI companies. The PBOC increased its gold reserves for the 19th straight month, up 320,000 ounces MoM. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing: Resolutely curb pseudo-innovations such as concept hype, complex nesting, excessive speculation, and channel arbitrage. Spot fundamentals: Last Friday, SHFE lead remained weak. Suppliers showed divergent selling attitudes, with some halting shipments, some selling at market, and some holding prices firm. Primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site were quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with ultra-high premiums (against SMM #1 lead) being lowered or shifting from discounts to premiums. In secondary lead, smelters’ losses widened, and most refrained from selling at low prices, with some secondary refined lead quotations at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises continued dip-buying on a need-to basis, but limited rigid demand meant purchasing enthusiasm weakened compared with the previous sharp price decline. Inventories: On June 5, LME lead inventory fell by 2,175 mt to 310,350 mt; as of June 4, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,100 mt, down 1,200 mt from May 28, and up about 300 mt from June 1. Lead price outlook today: Recently, primary and secondary lead enterprises in Henan, Anhui and other regions have concentrated production resumptions, significantly increasing lead ingot supply. However, downstream consumption recovery is slow, enterprises’ purchase willingness is weak, and combined with the off-season and high temperatures, some downstream enterprises plan to suspend production for holidays, further weakening the consumption side. But as lead prices declined, scrap battery prices experienced relatively limited declines due to tight supply, leading to widening losses for secondary lead enterprises, while the cost side still provided some support for lead prices.

SMM, June 8: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $2,015/mt, edged down slightly in the Asian session and then moved sideways in the range of $2,006.5-2,012/mt; during the European session, driven by capital, it gradually strengthened, rose to a high of $2,018.5/mt, but encountered obvious resistance, pulled back near the close, dipped to $1,999/mt, and finally closed at $1,995/mt. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,380 yuan/mt, briefly surged to 16,455 yuan/mt at the start, then met resistance and pulled back, subsequently fluctuated downward and broke below the daily average support, dipped to 16,365 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,405 yuan/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick, down 30 yuan/mt, or 0.18%. Recently, primary and secondary lead enterprises in Henan, Anhui, and other regions have resumed production intensively, leading to a significant increase in lead ingot supply; however, downstream consumption recovery has been slow, enterprises' purchase willingness remains weak, and combined with the off-season and high temperatures, some downstream enterprises plan to suspend production and take holidays, which will further weaken consumption. However, during the decline in lead prices, scrap battery prices have seen relatively limited declines due to tight supply, causing secondary lead enterprises' losses to widen, while the cost side still provides some support to lead prices.

In the spot market this week (6.1-6.5), SMM #1 lead average price initially stabilized and edged up before pulling back successively within the week. Spot premiums fluctuated in line with futures movements. Downstream users maintained just-in-time procurement throughout the week, with low willingness to purchase at high prices, leading to divergent spot order transactions. Regionally, Henan smelters posted discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt at the start of the week, while traders offered discounts of 180-150 yuan/mt against SHFE lead 2607. By Thursday and Friday, smelters suspended spot order quotations to fulfill long-term contracts, and traders narrowed their discounts to 130-110 yuan/mt, resulting in sluggish trading. In Hunan, ex-factory prices shifted from premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt to parity, then rebounded to premiums of 0-20 yuan/mt by the week's end. In Guangdong, suppliers initially offered discounts of 150 yuan/mt for self pick-up. Overall, as lead prices rose, smelters held back from selling while downstream users purchased sparingly. After the futures market dropped sharply, some rushed to offload cargoes at low prices while others held prices firm. Downstream users sought bargains at lower levels but remained cautious in procurement. Spot transactions were moderate early in the week, gradually weakened in the middle, and overall trading was on the soft side.