[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

[Zinc Concentrate Production] According to SMM, a mine in Central China plans to suspend production for a short period for maintenance in April, which is expected to reduce zinc concentrates output by around 500 mt in metal content MoM.

This week (March 27-April 2, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 62.05%, down 0.76 percentage points WoW from the previous week. This week, after a small-to-medium-sized smelter in Henan suspended production for maintenance, production in the region recorded a MoM decline, and the operating rate in Henan continued its downward trend. Operating activity in Hunan remained stable this week, while in Yunnan, one smelter cut production due to maintenance and another slightly increased output after resuming from maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in the operating rate in Yunnan this week. In addition, some small smelters in Yunnan and Hunan still had no expectations for resumption due to factors such as raw materials and downstream orders, while a smelter in Yunnan that had previously delayed maintenance is expected to resume production next week.

[Consumption Performance Varied Across Market Segments, and Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Operating Rates Are Expected to Decline Next Week] From the order performance perspective, terminal hardware enterprises had already completed stockpiling at low price levels earlier, and demand was suppressed after prices rose recently. Overall, orders across various die-casting zinc alloy segments showed mediocre performance. Among them, zipper hardware was in the peak consumption season, and relatively solid demand was broadly in line with enterprise expectations......

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Slightly Pessimistic Demand Expectations Cap Upside Room for ADC12 Prices]: On Thursday, ADC12 market prices remained largely stable. Downstream procurement is currently staying cautious, and overall market transactions were mediocre. Some enterprises are pessimistic about April order expectations, with wait-and-see sentiment intensifying and demand continuing to provide weak support for prices. The market’s primary contradiction has shifted from raw material cost-driven factors to insufficient consumption momentum. The increase in finished alloy ingot prices has clearly lagged behind the raw material side, and industry profit margins have consequently narrowed.

[Silicon Metal Price Center Remained in the Doldrums]: This week, the silicon metal market stayed weak, with the transaction center for some silicon metal grades edging lower. As of April 2, SMM east China prices were oxygen-blown #553 silicon at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; 441# silicon at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW; and 3303# silicon at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal contract remained weak, with the SI2605 contract closing at 8,300 yuan/mt on Thursday, down 435 yuan/mt WoW. Spot declines were narrower than futures prices, and the advantage in supplier shipments shifted from silicon enterprises to trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market. During the week, market prices were under pressure, while procurement volume from some downstream users and export traders increased, with transactions in some grades remaining moderate.