The most-traded HRC contract fluctuated downward today, closing at 3,358, down 0.33% MoM. Spot sheets & plates fell 10-20 yuan/mt MoM, while some markets held steady. Supply side, hot rolling maintenance impact eased this week, weekly production rose 10,500 mt MoM, and supply pressure remains on a short-term uptrend. Demand side, the late-session decline weighed on market sentiment, with end-users buying at low prices and speculative demand weakening. Cost side, the spot market for coking coal and coke remained in a tight supply-demand balance. The sixth round of coke price increases was implemented, and futures prices are currently in the process of repairing losses. There are market talks of a seventh round of increases on the 12th, and cost support remains in place. In summary, based on HRC social inventory data, east China and south China markets saw MoM inventory buildup, while northeast, north China, and central China markets saw MoM destocking. No obvious supply-demand imbalance has emerged yet. However, as the off-season deepens, imbalances will continue to build. The market is expected to remain rangebound in the short term. Keep monitoring disturbances from the raw material side.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: DMC Transaction Center Rebounds Slightly, While Midstream and Downstream Purchases Follow with Small Orders Pushing for Lower Prices] After last week's industry meeting, the downward trend of the silicone market, which was overtly stable but covertly declining, was basically halted. However, overall demand still lacked support, with transactions seeing only a slight recovery, and high-priced goods were difficult to sell.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Intensified Supply-Demand Tug-of-War, Magnesium Ingot Market Remains in Stalemate and Consolidation This Week] This week, the overall market for dolomite and magnesium products remained stable, with the market showing a supply-strong, demand-weak pattern. Dolomite quarries in Wutai, Shanxi, were shut down due to environmental protection measures, leading to localized tight supply of high-grade dolomite. However, national inventory remained ample, and downstream users purchased as needed, keeping prices stable. Magnesium ingot supply in major production areas was abundant, while downstream buyers only made just-in-time procurement, resulting in a stagnant market. Export orders were sluggish, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Magnesium powder followed the raw material trend, and the industry was in the demand off-season, with mediocre domestic and foreign trade transactions. Magnesium alloy production was steady, but enterprise orders diverged. Some producers saw rising inventory, an increase in low-priced supply, and a widening price spread. The supply-demand tug-of-war across the industry chain intensified, and short-term price fluctuations for various product categories remained limited, with the market expected to continue running steadily.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Futures’ Stop-Falling Fails to Shift Cautious Sentiment, Stainless Steel Spot Quotes Remain Steady SMM, June 11 - SS futures showed a trend of stopping falling and stabilizing. Supported by the stabilizing SHFE nickel futures, SS stabilized in tandem. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,380 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although supported by the stabilizing SS futures, overall stainless steel spot quotes remained stable, but spot traders lacked confidence and showed strong willingness to sell, leaving some room for bargaining and resulting in the emergence of some low-priced cargoes. The most-traded SS futures contract saw a pullback after earlier losses. At 10:15 am, SS2607 was at 14,405 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 565-1,215 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; the average price of cold-rolled rough-edge 304/2B coil was flat in Wuxi and flat in Foshan; the price of Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil fell by 175 yuan/mt; the price of hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi fell by 150 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable. Stainless steel futures and spot markets experienced heightened volatility, with futures disturbed by macro news from outside China, rising first then falling, and the off-season characteristics of the market fully emerged. The industry has vague expectations for the future market, with a thick wait-and-see sentiment. Transactions saw sporadic recoveries but lacked sustainability, and traders faced rising pressure to sell, mostly boosting transactions by offering discounts. Overall, the market presents a game pattern where macro news disturbs futures, off-season demand weakens, supply marginally adjusts, and inventory stops falling and starts to build up...

SMM News, June 11: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell: SHFE copper fell 1.4%, SHFE lead rose 0.68%, and SHFE tin fell 1.08%. SHFE nickel fell 1.49%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.33%. SHFE zinc fell 2.48%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.46%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 1.19%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 3.17%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.81%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 4.19%. Ferrous metals mostly fell: iron ore fell 0.46%, rebar fell 0.28%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%, and stainless steel fell 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.41%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 1.27%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals were down nearly across the board. LME copper fell 0.19%, LME aluminum fell 0.31%, and LME lead rose 0.48%. LME zinc fell 0.45%, LME tin fell 0.77%, and LME nickel fell 0.23%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 1.16%, hitting an intraday low of $4,046.2/oz; COMEX silver fell 2.04%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 3.89%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.77%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 3.7%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract was flat at 3,977.5 points. As of 11:43 on June 11, midday moves in selected futures: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at 240 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,625 yuan/mt, down 585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,550 yuan/mt, down 585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline today, marking the eighth consecutive drop... Macro Front China: [China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance: In May, China’s power and energy storage battery sales rose 47.4% YoY] The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released monthly power battery information for May 2026. In May, total production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 191.7 Gwh, up 4.2% MoM and up 55.2% YoY. In May, China's sales of power batteries and ESS batteries totaled 182.2 GWh, up 11.0% MoM and 47.4% YoY. Of these, power battery sales were 127.0 GWh, accounting for 69.7% of the total, up 16.6% MoM and 45.2% YoY; ESS battery sales were 55.2 GWh, representing 30.3% of the total, down 0.1% MoM but up 52.7% YoY. [Changchun: Building a World-Class Vehicle Manufacturer Group, Supporting FAW and Huawei to Deepen Strategic Cooperation] The 15th Five-Year Plan for the Automobile Industry Development in Changchun (Draft for Comment) has been released for public comment. It mentions providing full support for vehicle enterprises to transform and upgrade, with the aim of building a world-class vehicle manufacturer group. It focuses on supporting vehicle enterprises to develop new energy and energy-efficient vehicles and to establish a clear brand system. It also supports carriers to strengthen strategic cooperation with domestic cross-industry enterprises in the field of intelligent connected vehicles. In particular, it fully supports China FAW in integrating global innovation resources and deepening strategic technological cooperation with Leap Motor, Huawei, DJI, and other enterprises in areas such as new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles. The plan emphasizes the industrialization application and iterative upgrade of key technologies such as all-solid-state batteries, the 'Hongqi No.1' multi-domain fusion chip, the Sinan Intelligent Driving large model, and the Lingxi Cockpit large model. It supports China FAW in deepening strategic cooperation with leading technology enterprises such as Huawei, Baidu, and iFLYTEK, as well as internet platforms, to jointly establish innovation laboratories, focusing on tackling key technologies such as end-cloud integrated intelligent architecture, Level 3 and above autonomous driving, and multimodal interaction, thereby creating a nationally influential source of intelligent connected vehicle innovation. (From WSJ APP) The PBOC conducted 188.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. As for the US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.96. The US Labor Department said on Wednesday that the CPI rose 4.2% YoY in May, accelerating from 3.8% in the previous month. This marked the highest year-on-year increase since April 2023, indicating that high energy costs due to the conflict with Iran continue to drive up price pressures. Since the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran in late February, Americans have been feeling the pain of rising oil prices. Rising energy costs have weakened consumer confidence. Currently, there is little sign that oil tankers can obtain sustained permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that supply pressure in the global energy market is expected to persist. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the US Fed holding interest rates steady through June was 98.4%, with a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut seen at just 1.6%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate through July stood at 89.1%, a cumulative 25-bp hike at 9.5%, and a cumulative 25-bp cut at 1.5%. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, described the latest CPI report as a “tale of two cities.” While the data was highly consistent with expectations, the overall trend remained negative. This did not alter the policy path for the Fed’s next meeting. However, the prevailing consensus is that the Fed will hold steady, and Fed funds futures are currently pricing in only one hike. In summary, after significant profit-taking pressure on semiconductor stocks and the broader tech sector, these factors were likely instrumental in helping the market recover some lost ground in early trading today. A CICC research note argued that US inflation remains dominated by structural factors, such as energy shocks, with cyclical inflation not yet evident. However, it warned of the risks of a rebound in aggregate demand driven by AI capex expansion and improving employment. On monetary policy, the firm maintained its baseline call of no cuts and no hikes by the Fed this year. It expects the Fed’s stance to stay hawkish, noting that Fed Chair Warsh’s top priority upon taking office would be to rebuild policy credibility, likely demonstrating resolve by signaling stronger expectations for balance sheet reduction rather than hinting at rate hikes. A scenario of “balance sheet reduction first, delayed rate cuts” could not be ruled out, posing sustained pressure on assets that conflict with Warsh’s philosophy, those reliant on liquidity, and those benefiting from dollar over-issuance. (Jin10 Data App) On the Data Front: Releases due today include the Eurozone’s ECB Deposit Facility Rate and ECB Main Refinancing Rate as of June 11, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, and the US PPI year-over-year and month-over-month figures for May. Additionally, attention will be on the Ministry of Commerce’s second regular press briefing for June; the ECB’s interest rate decision; and the monetary policy press conference held by ECB President Christine Lagarde. In Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices were up across both benchmarks, with WTI gaining 1.94% and Brent crude rising 1.65%. Prices climbed amid escalating military conflict between the US and Iran. The US Department of Energy (DOE) stated on Wednesday local time that the US is seeking to lend up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to energy enterprises to help lower fuel prices. This plan is part of a previous agreement to release 172 million barrels from the SPR. To date, the US has lent approximately 133 million barrels of crude oil under that agreement. In March this year, after the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, the US reached an agreement with about 30 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to jointly release approximately 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to help stabilize the global oil market. At that time, the US SPR inventory stood at 349.2 million barrels, the lowest level since August 2023. Enterprises that borrowed crude oil had to return an equal amount and pay a premium of up to 24% in the form of additional crude oil. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Semi-Annual Review and Outlook: Capacity Expansion Continues to Suppress Prices, Non-oriented Struggles to Shake Off Downturn Shadow