[Imported Zinc Concentrate Market] Overseas ore supply disruptions have persisted recently. Offers for imported ore remained scarce this week, with some heard quoted at around -$80 to -$90/dmt, but smelters held a strong wait-and-see sentiment, keeping overall trading activity sluggish during the week.

This week, the MHP market was tight overall, with nickel and cobalt coefficients fluctuating at highs. On the supply side, sulfur supply shortages caused some producers to cut production, MHP supply declined, and transaction coefficients edged up slightly. On the demand side, downstream nickel salt prices weakened, the risk of losses persisted, and nickel salt smelters were relatively less accepting of high-priced MHP. However, with some recovery in downstream ternary demand, some producers had rigid purchase needs, supporting the strength of MHP nickel coefficients. Driven by tight supply-demand expectations, the market is expected to hold up well in the short term. The high-grade nickel matte market was also in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Currently, high-grade nickel matte has a clear economic advantage over MHP. However, on the supply side, mainstream suppliers have completed long-term order signing, leaving limited available spot supply. On the demand side, actual consumption capacity was insufficient due to limitations in downstream production line compatibility. Overall, purchase sentiment was weak, trading activity was low, and coefficients remained stable. The international sulfur market saw a shift in supply landscape, with geopolitical premiums gradually being cleared. The US and Iran signed and enacted a ceasefire memorandum on June 17, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be gradually unblocked, the US has started lifting the sea blockade, and Iran will complete mine clearance within 30 days. However, many shipping enterprises have temporarily suspended the resumption of routes, making navigation recovery a gradual process. Coupled with Turkey's export ban extended to end-September and Russia's ban extended to June 30, short-term supply disruptions persist. As the strait unblocking progresses, sulfur prices are expected to gradually come under pressure and swing wildly at highs in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to mine clearance progress, the pace of shipping recovery, and the direction of the final agreement within 60 days. On the nickel price front, as the US-Iran reconciliation gradually progressed this week, market rate hike expectations faded, and non-ferrous metals generally rebounded. Against the backdrop of stable MHP payables and high-grade nickel matte coefficients, the absolute prices of MHP and high-grade nickel matte rebounded as nickel prices rose. Additionally, MHP cobalt prices and refined cobalt prices also rebounded. Overall, the intermediate product market is expected to hold up well in the short term. Cost side, the MHP raw material market remained tight. Under the combined influence of production cuts of intermediates caused by sulfur shortage and just-in-time procurement of ternary materials downstream, MHP payables fluctuated at highs this week. Nickel prices, the US-Iran situation released signals of reconciliation, market rate-hike expectations subsided somewhat, and the previously oversold nickel prices rebounded this week. Overall for the week, nickel prices rebounded, MHP payables held steady, and the spot cost of nickel salt production rose slightly WoW.

(Kitco News) – Even when real yields decline and the dollar weakens, gold prices could struggle to catch a bid as strong equity markets will continue to draw investors to risk assets, according to commodity analysts at Société Générale. The French banking giant cautioned that gold investors may be in for an extended period of muted ETF flows combined with a pause in central bank purchases. “The market is finely balanced, and the path of monetary policy remains the key variable for gold through its impact on real rates and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset,” they wrote. “Our analyst’s central scenario is driven by persistent inflation, oil-driven price shocks and a clear ‘higher for-longer’ rates regime.” SocGen analysts expect the world’s major central banks will remain cautious, with “the Fed on hold, the ECB still leaning hawkish, and the BoJ gradually tightening.” Going forward, the analysts see two potential macroeconomic paths. The first is “an AI-led, inflationary growth cycle keeping policy tight,” while the second involves “an energy-driven stagflation shock, particularly in the event of prolonged supply disruptions.” “Our analysts expect inflation across the US and Europe to stay elevated into early 2027 before moderating, providing only temporary support to gold’s hedge appeal,” they warned. “Crucially, they view policy stability rather than easing as the baseline, limiting upside for gold in the near term.” SocGen said they do expect some support to emerge later “as real yields gradually decline and the USD initially softens,” but they warned that even then, gold’s upside will be limited by “resilient global growth, strong equity markets and a continued investor preference for risk assets.” “On the demand side, subdued ETF inflows and constrained central bank activity limit the strength of financial demand, though a recovery is anticipated into 2027,” they added. “Physical demand, particularly jewellery, shows resilience in value terms and could provide marginal support as prices consolidate.” Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-17/persistent-inflation-oil-driven-price-shocks-and-higher-longer-rates-will

June 16, 2026 The price of gold continues its recovery at the start of the week. The prospect of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is pushing the price of oil below $80 per barrel, thereby easing concerns about inflation and interest rates. Despite the strong rebound, however, the technical picture remains weak. Hopes for peace provide relief via falling oil prices The U.S. and Iran plan to sign their peace agreement on Friday. For the price of gold, the resulting price slide in the oil market is currently the decisive driver, even overshadowing the dampening effect of easing geopolitical uncertainty. Falling energy costs reduce inflationary pressure and lessen the risk of further interest rate hikes. Gold has since pulled back significantly from its recent low of around $4,000 per ounce. Analysts, however, urge caution: political risks remain until the agreement is actually signed. A failure of the deal could quickly bring the $4,000 mark back into focus. In addition, the oil supply remains structurally tight. Since many governments drew heavily on their strategic reserves to stabilize prices during the conflict, buffers are now lacking. The oil market is therefore likely to react sensitively to new supply disruptions, which could quickly reignite inflation and interest rate concerns. Technical Analysis: Key Resistance Levels Ahead By successfully defending the $4,000 mark, gold has cleared its first hurdle. However, for a significant stabilization, the price must reclaim the 200-day moving average at around $4,450. Above that, the 50-day line awaits at around $4,581. A breakout above the interim high of May 12 at $4,773 is considered a decisive signal for a sustained upward trend. Focus on the Fed meeting Fundamentally, attention is turning to the Federal Reserve ’s first interest rate meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. While the market continues to anticipate a potential rate hike by early 2027 at the latest, should Warsh signal that the Fed views the peace agreement as price-dampening and overlooks current inflation, this would provide significant relief for interest-rate-sensitive assets such as gold. For now, high real yields are limiting the precious metal’s upside potential. The current recovery of just over 3 percent underscores its high sensitivity to energy prices and interest rate expectations. Whether this leads to a genuine trend reversal now depends on the successful signing of the agreement, stabilization in the oil market, and upcoming signals from the Federal Reserve. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-continues-to-appreciate-hopes-for-peace-weigh-on-oil-prices-and-interest-rate-concerns

SMM nickel report on June 17: Macro and market news: (1) The US Fed held its FOMC meeting on June 16-17 and will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 am tomorrow Beijing time. The market widely expects the rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. (2) The 2026 Lujiazui Forum opens in Shanghai today. The two-day forum, themed "Financial Development and Cooperation under the Global Governance Initiative," is co-chaired by the head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the mayor of Shanghai. Over 70 Chinese and foreign guests are attending, and multiple financial opening-up policies are expected to be released. Spot market: On June 17, the SMM #1 refined nickel price rose by 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,400 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premium range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -600 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2607 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing the morning session at 135,460 yuan/mt, down 0.22%. The US-Iran deal was reached, significantly easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The tail risk of energy supply disruptions subsided, crude oil pulled back, dragging down global inflation expectations. Once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes and the overseas sulfur supply crisis eases, nickel prices' cost support will weaken. Meanwhile, nickel prices remain capped by high inventory. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the range of 133,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►