Next week, the main macroeconomic data to be released include China's June CPI annual rate and the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI. This week, US non-farm payrolls data came in far below the previous value and expectations, cooling market expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike. The US dollar index may return to a weak range of fluctuation. Although the prospects for US-Iran peace talks remain unclear, the gradual recovery of shipping and maritime transport and the decline in crude oil prices indicate that supply chain markets are recovering. In addition, it should be noted that the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting next week. For LME lead, high lead ingot inventory outside China is the biggest bearish factor in current market trading, especially as LME lead prices fell, the LME lead Cash-3M contango did not narrow but widened, with the latest quote at -$37.79/mt. Fundamental news was mediocre, providing limited support for prices. In the near term, we need to pay more attention to the US dollar index trend and the new developments from next week’s US Fed meeting, and their impact on the metals market. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,865-1,915/mt next week. For SHFE lead, this week, amid a carnival for bears, SHFE lead fell to a more than two-year low, causing lead smelters’ losses to widen and forcing secondary lead enterprises to cut or suspend production again. Bears then began to exit, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. Going forward, we need to monitor downstream enterprises’ purchasing trends. If lead ingot destocking materializes, lead prices may continue to rebound; otherwise, we should remain vigilant about bearish funds that have not exited. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 15,800-16,100 yuan/mt. Spot Price Forecast: 15,750-16,000 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in July remains unchanged. However, after large enterprises complete their semi-annual inventory checks and account closing, they will resume regular purchasing, which may bring some purchasing expectations. Supply side, primary lead enterprises are about to resume production after maintenance, turning supply expectations upward. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are in a state of production cuts, leading to regional supply constraints. If lead prices continue to rebound next week, we need to watch for the possibility of secondary lead production resuming as losses are repaired. Spot lead is expected to remain in contango trading.

SMM July 1 news: Overnight, the LME 3-month lead contract opened at $1,890.5/mt. Early in the session, prices consolidated repeatedly, rising intraday to $1,898/mt. Subsequently, upward momentum from bulls faded, and prices drifted lower. The decline accelerated during the European session, with prices dropping to $1,871/mt. Towards the close, they stabilized and rebounded slightly, finally closing at $1,872/mt, recording a bearish candlestick. The contract fell $20.5/mt, a decrease of 1.08%. Overnight, SHFE lead contract 2608 opened slightly lower at 16,040 yuan/mt. After briefly rising to 16,065 yuan/mt at the open, bulls lost steam, bears stepped in, and prices continued to pull back, dropping to an intraday low of 15,950 yuan/mt. At the low, slight buying support prompted a minor rebound, and the contract finally closed at 15,975 yuan/mt, falling 75 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.47%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest increased slightly by 238 lots. The trend retreated after a rapid rise, remaining generally weak. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continue to suppress lead prices from a macro perspective. Although LME inventory pulled back slightly, the ex-China Q2 consumption off-season brings bearish demand factors. In China, primary smelters implemented minor production cuts due to ore supply constraints, while secondary smelters, hampered by losses and scrap battery raw material shortages, operated at lower rates, resulting in weak supply and demand in the market. Downstream users maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, only engaging in dip-buying on an as-needed basis. Short-term lead prices are likely to stay in the doldrums.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt. In initial trading, prices consolidated repeatedly, hitting an intraday high of $1,898/mt. Subsequently, the bulls’ upward momentum faded, and prices drifted lower. During the European session, the decline accelerated, with prices touching a low of $1,871/mt. Towards the end of the session, prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, eventually settling at $1,872/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down $20.5/mt, a decline of 1.08%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened slightly lower at 16,040 yuan/mt. After briefly rising to 16,065 yuan/mt in early trading, the bulls lacked momentum, and bears entered to push prices lower. The price continued to pull back, hitting a low of 15,950 yuan/mt. At the low, some buying support led to a minor rebound, and it eventually settled at 15,975 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.47%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest saw a slight increase of 238 lots. The trend was a retreat after a rapid rise, showing overall weakness. On the macro front: Trump disclosed a 927-page fundraising financial report exceeding $1 billion. The US Fed’s Hammack: Inflation is still too high and may require considering interest rate hikes. Japan stated that no intervention was made in the foreign exchange market from April 28 to May 27. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I would not be surprised if the June employment data is very strong. An MIIT official: Step up efforts in tackling key materials such as lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, silicon-based anodes, and solid-state electrolytes. The National Bureau of Statistics: In June, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory. Spot fundamentals: The SHFE lead center shifted further downward, and in early trading it once briefly broke below the 16,000 yuan/mt level. Suppliers showed widening divergence in selling, with some raising their offer premiums, while others kept selling at parity. Meanwhile, EXW cargo quotations from primary lead smelters also diverged, with regional price spreads narrowing. Mainstream production area quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead sector, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, and quotations were scarce. Some secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works, with a few at premiums of 100 yuan/mt, but there were also some discounted cargoes. Today was the last trading day of end-June, and downstream enterprises showed pronounced risk-averse wait-and-see sentiment. Some were looking to buy at lower prices on demand, and trading activity in the spot order market improved slightly. Inventory: As of June 30, LME lead inventory increased by 375 mt to 297,375 mt. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. Lead Price Forecast Today: Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continued to weigh on lead prices from a macro perspective; although LME inventory pulled back slightly, the Q2 consumption off-season outside China brought demand-side bearishness. China's primary smelters cut production slightly due to ore supply constraints, while secondary smelters' operating rates declined, dragged by losses and scrap battery raw material shortages, resulting in a market with weak supply and demand. Downstream maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, only making on-demand purchases and buying the dip. In the short term, lead prices are expected to consolidate largely in the doldrums.

SMM, June 30: Although market procurement demand remained mediocre, spot prices for Pr-Nd oxide recorded a second consecutive increase, supported by fluctuations in futures, difficulty in finding low-priced cargo in the market, some large manufacturers entering procurement, and a MoM decline of about 6% in Pr-Nd oxide production in June. On the demand side, long-term demand expansion expectations in the new energy industry chain such as robotics, along with the upcoming Q3 downstream concentrated procurement season in China and rising market expectations for subsequent demand recovery, bolstered the rare earth permanent magnet concept to strengthen on June 30, with the concept rising 2.79% by the close on June 30. In terms of individual stocks: Dongfang Zirconium Industry, Sinomine Resource Group, and Zhong Ke San Huan hit the daily limit up, while Hanghua Co., Ltd., Longhua Co., Ltd., Zhongxi Nonferrous, Sinosteel NMC, and Ningbo Yunsheng led the gains. Pr-Nd Oxide Spot Prices See Second Consecutive Increase; June Production Declines MoM In the spot market, on June 30, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide extended its upward trend from the previous trading day, rising another 0.68%. Currently, overall prices in the rare earth market remain stable. The increase in Pr-Nd oxide futures prices drove a simultaneous rise in supplier spot offers, making low-priced oxides hard to find in the market. However, metal enterprises were cautious in procurement due to unsatisfactory inquiries for metals, leading to generally moderate market trading activity. In the metal market, inquiry activity picked up slightly on the afternoon of the 30th, mainly driven by tender procurement from major magnetic material manufacturers, but most magnetic material enterprises remained on the sidelines, resulting in overall poor transactions. In the short term, Pr-Nd product prices may move sideways without significant improvement in downstream demand. On the supply side, further providing price support logic: in terms of production, according to SMM's latest survey, overall rare earth oxide production declined MoM in June, with Pr-Nd oxide seeing the most prominent decrease, shrinking approximately 6% MoM. Institutional Views SDIC Securities emphasized that heavy rare earths are accelerating inventory depletion due to a cliff-like decline in imports from Japan, opening a window for domestic substitution, with prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide rebounding strongly. Materials such as AI high-capacity MLCCs, high-end ceramic substrates, and dental zirconia all require the addition of heavy rare earths. Growing demand combined with hard supply constraints is driving the price centers of both light and heavy rare earths upward together. Meanwhile, inflation trends in AI upstream materials such as MLCC dielectric powder, Low CTE electronic fabrics, M9 copper foil, and tantalum metals are clear, and the medium and long-term outlook is positive for the allocation value of strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, copper, tin, molybdenum, antimony, germanium, gallium, tantalum, niobium, uranium, rhenium, and lithium. A research report from China Securities stated that domestic dental zirconia enterprises have confirmed "receipt of a notice from Japan's Tosoh Corporation regarding the suspension of zirconia powder supply," marking a shift in raw material shortages from expectations to reality following overseas rare earth supply restrictions. Yttria-stabilized nano zirconia (YSZ) is a high-performance ceramic material with yttrium oxide added as an additive. Due to restricted rare earth supply outside China, the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets has reached hundreds of times at its peak. The domestic price spread for yttrium oxide between Chinese and overseas markets is huge. Rare earths are indispensable additives for high-end materials and high-end manufacturing. As overseas rare earth supply tightens and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets widens, domestic high-end materials containing rare earths are expected to gain a larger share of the global market, benefiting the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of the rare earth industry chain. Recommended reading:

News Release, June 30, 2026: According to SMM statistics, China's high-carbon ferrochrome output in June 2026 rose 4.06% month-on-month and 29.96% year-on-year . Domestic ferrochrome output stayed elevated throughout the month, with production growth recorded in both northern and southern regions. In Inner Mongolia in the north, power supply constraints exerted limited impact. The June tender price for ferrochrome from steel mills stood at RMB 8,495 per 50-base-tonne. Meanwhile, chrome ore prices trended down moderately, lowering production costs for ferrochrome producers who maintained decent margins and mostly operated at normal run rates. In addition, newly launched capacity at several smelters further lifted regional output. Statistics show Inner Mongolia’s high-carbon ferrochrome output climbed 3.83% month-on-month in June, accounting for 77.82% of the national total. The southern regions officially entered the wet season, with power tariffs falling notably in Sichuan, Yunnan and other provinces, prompting successive restarts and production resumptions. Combined high-carbon ferrochrome output across southern provinces including Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Hunan rose 10% month-on-month in June, representing 11.59% of national volume. Ferrochrome output is expected to stay at high levels with little room for sharp further gains. For one thing, major stainless steel mills including Tsingshan and TIS cut their July high-carbon ferrochrome tender prices by RMB 200 per 50-base-tonne month-on-month, matching the market’s earlier bearish sentiment. The sector is in the traditional off-season for consumption, with news of production cuts emerging among downstream stainless steel manufacturers. Market participants hold subdued confidence over the outlook, keeping ferrochrome prices under persistent downward pressure. Meanwhile, the decline in chrome ore prices has slowed, leaving limited room for further cost reductions and squeezing profit margins of ferrochrome producers, which dampens production willingness. For another, southern smelters have mostly ramped up output to full capacity amid the wet season, leaving little upside for additional production growth. Besides, nearly all newly added domestic capacity has been commissioned. Therefore, ferrochrome output is projected to remain steady at current high levels in the near term.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, China’s 97% fluorite wet powder market was stable, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt and price differences across regions. The supply side was constrained by safety and environmental protection checks and insufficient operating rates at small and medium mines. High-grade ore was in tight supply. Additionally, imports from Mongolia declined, spot cargo and enterprise inventories were low, and miners held prices firm with a strong sentiment. Demand-side performance diverged: the refrigerant industry entered the off-season, with hydrofluoric acid plants making just-in-time and contract purchases amid losses; demand from lithium battery electrolytes and electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid remained stable, supporting high-grade fluorite. In the short term, the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease, and import increases will be limited, so fluorite prices are likely to remain generally stable with a slight rise.