As resource security and decarbonization become increasingly important, major economies are strengthening efforts to retain aluminum scrap. From the EU's review of export controls and the U.S. strategic asset proposal to Japan's circular economy initiatives and policies in the UAE and South Africa, these developments could reshape global scrap flows and affect secondary aluminum markets.

Ivanhoe Mines said construction of Kamoa-Kakula’s on-site solar and battery storage facilities remains on schedule, with 60 MW of baseload power expected to be delivered from early Q3 2026. The company also plans to expand on-site solar generation and storage capacity to 120 MW by the end of 2027. In addition, Kamoa-Kakula has secured key operating consumables, including diesel inventory, to mitigate potential supply chain disruptions. Market participants believe the enhanced power infrastructure will strengthen operational reliability and support future production growth.

SMM May 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.08%, SHFE lead declined 0.99%, SHFE zinc lost 0.54%, SHFE tin slid 1.05%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.07%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.82%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract gained 0.27%. The most-traded silicon metal contract dropped 0.64%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.9%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore edged up, rebar and hot-rolled coil each gained less than 0.5%, and stainless steel fell 0.5%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.09%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.44%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper dropped 0.2%. LME aluminum and LME lead both fell 0.15%. LME zinc was flat at $3,507.5/mt. LME tin declined 0.55%. LME nickel lost 0.45%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.47% and COMEX silver dropped 2.6%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 2.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 4.97%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 3.78%, and the most-traded palladium futures declined 3.75%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.22% to 2,995.5 points. As of 11:39 on May 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,695 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,590 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly driven by rising arrivals and weakening consumption... Macro Front China: [CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling: Foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continues to rise] On May 28, the 2026 Global Investor Conference hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was held in Shenzhen. CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling stated in his address that China's capital market reforms integrating investment and financing had progressed steadily and continued to deliver results, overall market valuations were within a reasonable range, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continued to rise. In his address, Liu Haolin stated that China is a major contributor to and stabilizing anchor for global economic growth, and a fertile ground for foreign enterprises to invest and do business. Since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has been flowing steadily into China's stock market through various channels. As of now, various overseas investors hold over 4 trillion yuan in A-share tradable market capitalization, making them important participants in China's capital market. (Wallstreetcn) PBOC conducted 101.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 100 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.25% to 99.48. Persistently high energy prices intensified market concerns about a resurgence in inflation. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on Thursday further reinforced his warning: rising market expectations for AI's potential to boost productivity could push up inflation and force the US Fed and other central banks to raise interest rates. Goolsbee said: "The more hype there is about future productivity, the higher rates may need to go to prevent the economy from overheating. More importantly, facing supply shocks in the short term—whether from oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or other factors—makes the problem even worse." The above remarks further expanded on the views Goolsbee first publicly raised earlier this month. He questioned the notion that AI could suppress inflation and thereby create room for central banks to cut interest rates—a view championed by many officials in the Trump administration as well as new US Fed Chair Warsh. In the 1990s, as computers became more widely adopted, US productivity rose unexpectedly, driving rapid economic growth without triggering inflation. However, Goolsbee argued that if productivity gains are anticipated by the market, the situation would be different. Markets could trigger a spending boom in advance, pushing up prices before actual productivity gains materialize. US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he expected inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and rising energy costs fade, but he warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. In remarks prepared for delivery at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference in Tokyo on Thursday morning, Jefferson said he is watching for signs that rising energy costs from the Iran war are weighing on consumer spending. He also warned that he continued to see signs of weakness in the labour market. Jefferson reiterated his view that the central bank's current policy stance was well positioned to respond to any developments. Jefferson stated, "I am not prejudging the next meeting and look forward to engaging with my colleagues on the best policy to achieve our dual mandate goals." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: The Bank of Korea's six-month dot plot showed that among 21 dots, 7 were at 2.75%, 10 at 3%, 2 at 3.25%, and 2 at 2.5%. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Data: Data to be released today include the eurozone May industrial confidence index, eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, and US April durable goods orders MoM. In addition, attention should be paid to: the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:39, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 3.1% and Brent up 3.07%. US-Iran tensions escalated again, driving crude oil higher. US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with negotiations with Iran, and the White House subsequently denied Iranian media reports of progress in peace talks, quickly dampening earlier market optimism about a ceasefire agreement. The US-Iran conflict entered its fourth month, with ceasefire prospects remaining uncertain. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said at a cabinet meeting at the White House on the 27th that the US and Iran had not yet reached a deal and the US was "dissatisfied" with this, fully rejecting the potential mechanism for joint US-Iran-Oman management of the Strait of Hormuz. (Wallstreetcn) The American Petroleum Institute (API) released data showing that US crude oil and gasoline inventories both declined last week. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 22 was -2.819 million barrels, versus expectations of -4.367 million barrels and a prior value of -9.11 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 22 was -3.199 million barrels, versus expectations of -2.896 million barrels and a prior value of -5.795 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM News, May 21: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market rose. SHFE copper gained 1.33%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.33%, SHFE lead climbed 1.55%, SHFE zinc advanced 1.47%, and SHFE tin surged 3.21%. SHFE nickel fell 0.57%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.39%, the most-traded alumina contract gained 0.37%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.18%, the most-traded silicon metal contract climbed 0.35%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.37%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.5%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil gained 0.23%, and stainless steel rose 0.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.33%, and the most-traded coke contract was flat at 1,774.5 yuan/mt. Overseas base metals: as of 11:32, LME metals generally fell. LME copper dropped 0.15%, LME aluminum was flat at 3,629 yuan/mt, LME lead rose 0.71%, LME zinc fell 0.1%, LME tin declined 0.53%, and LME nickel dropped 0.92%. Precious metals: as of 11:32, COMEX gold rose 0.12% and COMEX silver fell 0.26%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 0.89% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.85%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.74% and the most-traded palladium futures gained 0.47%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 7.66% to 2,957.5 points. As of 11:32 on May 21, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Nickel: On May 21, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 1,550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,200 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -600 to 500 yuan/mt. Macro front China: [NDRC: To improve policy measures on fair competition, investment and financing, promotion of sci-tech innovation, and business regulation] Li Hui, Director of the Private Economy Development Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the NDRC will better leverage its coordination function in promoting private economy development, organize and carry out specific measures outlined in the action plan for safeguarding the private economy through the rule of law, and strengthen the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law. The NDRC will improve supporting systems and refine policy measures on fair competition, investment and financing, promotion of sci-tech innovation, and business regulation. It will continue to work with relevant departments to publish typical cases to illustrate the law through cases, conduct assessments of policy implementation effectiveness, promote direct and swift access to enterprise-friendly policies, and guide enterprises in enhancing their governance capabilities. [China's Enterprise Credit Index Reached 162.41 in April This Year, Maintaining a Positive Trend] According to the State Administration for Market Regulation, China's Enterprise Credit Index stood at 162.41 in April this year, up 0.15 points from March, with enterprise credit levels maintaining a positive trend. In April, the top 5 industries by credit index ranking were finance, electricity/heat/gas and water production and supply, education, manufacturing, and water conservancy/environment and public facilities management. Compared with the previous month, the indices for information transmission/software and information technology services, finance, and health and social work showed relatively notable increases, achieving positive growth for three consecutive months, with credit development trends continuing to improve. (CCTV News) [Qiushi Commentary Article: How to Thoroughly Address "Involution-Style" Competition in Manufacturing] The article pointed out that thoroughly addressing "involution-style" competition requires institutional innovation to drive competition toward quality upgrading. Only when government behavior is regulated and market mechanisms are streamlined can enterprises shift from low-price disorderly competition to value-based competition. A unified national market should be built to break down market segmentation, policies hindering fair competition should be resolutely eliminated, outdated capacity should be phased out in an orderly manner in accordance with laws and regulations to prevent "bad money driving out good," and competitive enterprises should be allocated resources commensurate with their competitiveness. Performance assessment reform should be used to correct government behavior, shifting assessment focus toward "quality" indicators such as development quality, technological innovation, and industrial coordination, aligning local government incentives with high-quality development, and curbing the impulse for homogeneous investment attraction at the source. Evaluation mechanism reform should be used to rectify competitive behavior, reversing the "price-only" tendency, establishing comprehensive evaluation mechanisms centered on technology, quality, and service, making premium quality at premium prices a market consensus, and guiding resources toward enterprises with strong innovation capabilities and high product value-added. The PBOC conducted 100 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 500 million yuan of reverse repos matured. US Dollar: As of 11:32, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.19. The US Fed meeting minutes showed that participants anticipated elevated energy prices would continue to exert upward pressure on headline inflation in the near term. Participants generally expected that the impact of tariffs on core goods inflation would gradually diminish over the course of this year. However, some participants noted that tariff rates could rise further above current levels, resulting in greater upward pressure on inflation. Several participants emphasized that, after inflation had remained above 2% for several consecutive years, elevated inflation could have a greater influence on wage- and price-setting decisions. Almost all participants noted that the conflict in the Middle East could persist for an extended period, or even if the conflict ended, oil and other commodity prices could remain elevated for longer than expectations. In such a scenario, participants anticipated that factors such as supply chain disruptions, elevated energy prices, or the pass-through of higher input costs to other prices would continue to push inflation higher. The vast majority of participants noted that the time required for inflation to return to the Committee's 2% target could be longer than they had previously expected, and that risks had increased. The US Fed meeting minutes showed that regarding the monetary policy outlook, participants generally believed that persistently elevated inflation and uncertainty about the duration and economic impact of the Middle East conflict could necessitate maintaining the current policy stance for longer than expectations. Some participants emphasized that it might be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate once clear signs emerged that the pullback trend in inflation had steadily resumed, or signs of greater softness in the labour market appeared. However, most participants noted that if inflation remained persistently above 2%, some tightening measures might be necessary. To address this scenario, many participants indicated that they would prefer to remove language from the post-meeting statement that implied the Committee's future rate decisions might lean toward easing. Participants noted that monetary policy was not predetermined and that future policy decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 97.3%, with a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at 2.7%. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 87.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at 2.4%, and a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at 10.4%. (Jin Shi Data) On the data front: Data to be released today include US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, US April annualized housing starts, US April building permits, US May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, US May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading, Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, Eurozone March seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary reading, France May Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, Germany May Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, UK May Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, UK May Services PMI preliminary reading, UK May CBI Industrial Orders balance, and Australia April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. In addition, attention should also be paid to the following: Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech, and China's refined oil products were set to enter a new round of price adjustment window. Crude oil: As of 11:32, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.94% and Brent up 0.83%. Supply concerns driven by market worries over the uncertain prospects of a US-Iran peace deal continued to support oil prices. In addition, declining US crude oil inventory also lent support to oil prices. EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventory, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 7.863 million barrels to 445 million barrels, a decline of 1.74%. The weekly EIA crude oil inventory drawdown for the week ending May 15 was the largest since the week of February 13, 2026. A research report from CITIC Securities noted that global oil inventory was declining sharply, intensifying the risk of energy shortages. The US-Israel-Iran conflict disrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, causing global oil inventory to plummet at a record pace and heightening the risk of summer energy shortages. The market temporarily cushioned the pressure by relying on previously surplus inventory, exemptions from Russian oil sanctions, and strategic petroleum reserve releases by multiple countries, while high oil prices also triggered a contraction in global oil demand. International oil prices are currently fluctuating at elevated levels, US refined product prices have hit multi-year highs, oil supplies in multiple energy-importing regions in Asia are on the verge of shortages, dragging down regional economic growth. Oil prices may still have significant upside room, and accelerating the development of renewable energy has become a long-term measure for countries to guard against energy risks. Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) of the UAE, said on the 20th that the UAE was building an east-west oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The project was nearly 50% complete and is expected to be completed and operational by 2027. According to the UAE's Gulf News, Al Jaber said at an online event hosted by the US think tank Atlantic Council that a large volume of global energy transportation still relied on a few critical maritime chokepoints, and the UAE hoped to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and enhance the security of energy exports through this project. (Xinhua) Goldman Sachs stated that as the Middle East war continued and supply remained constrained, global crude oil and refined product inventory was being depleted at a record pace this month. Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report dated May 20 that since the beginning of May, visible inventory had been declining at a record rate of 8.7 million barrels per day, nearly double the average pace since the outbreak of the conflict. They stated, "The physical market continues to tighten, and oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are estimated to remain at only 5% of normal levels." Goldman Sachs analysts noted that two-thirds of the inventory decline in May was driven by a reduction in so-called "oil on water," with exports falling more than imports. The import slump is now "spreading from Asia to Europe," they noted, with European jet fuel imports 60% below the 2025 average. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) noted that primary aluminum production in the Gulf region totaled 330,000 mt in April, down 35% year-on-year from the same period in 2025, as the Iran war affected smelters in the region. Although the region accounted for only about 8% of global primary aluminum production, it was the source of 28% of Japan's imports and 21% of US imports. Given the supply chain disruptions and a continuously deteriorating outlook, IAI Secretary General Jonathan Grant stated that the April data may not yet have reached the bottom, and the situation could worsen further.

SMM May 11 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 1.01%, SHFE aluminum up 0.86%, SHFE lead edged down slightly, SHFE zinc fell 0.6%, SHFE tin was up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel up 0.86%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 1.09%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.81%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 3.1%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.66%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 2.8%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.86%, rebar up 0.52%, hot-rolled coil up 0.46%, and stainless steel down 0.07%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.85%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.65%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:46, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper rose 0.59%, LME aluminum up 0.67%, LME zinc down 0.31%, LME lead edged up slightly, LME tin up 1.16%, and LME nickel up 1.29%. Precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold fell 0.77% and COMEX silver rose 0.66%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.96%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.68%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.14%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.62%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 5.07% to 2,474.5 points. As of 11:46 on May 11, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Lead: An SMM survey showed that in April, refined lead supply from secondary lead enterprises edged up MoM, mainly driven by production resumptions at previously idled enterprises and restocking of raw materials to boost output... Macro Front China: [NBS: April CPI Up 1.2% YoY, PPI Up 2.8% YoY, PPI Growth Expanded] NBS data showed that in April 2026, the national consumer price index rose 1.2% YoY. Among them, urban areas were up 1.2% and rural areas up 1.0%; food prices fell 1.6%, while non-food prices rose 1.8%; consumer goods prices rose 1.4%, and services prices rose 0.9%. On average from January to April, the national CPI was up 0.9% YoY. In April, the national CPI rose 0.3% MoM. Among them, urban areas were up 0.3% and rural areas up 0.1%; food prices fell 1.6%, while non-food prices rose 0.7%; consumer goods prices rose 0.1%, and services prices rose 0.5%. In April 2026, national industrial producer ex-factory prices rose 2.8% YoY and 1.7% MoM. Industrial producer purchase prices rose 3.5% YoY and 2.1% MoM. For the January–April average, industrial producer ex-factory prices were up 0.2% from the same period last year, and industrial producer purchase prices were up 0.5%. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the April 2026 CPI and PPI data. The main characteristics of PPI MoM movements this month were as follows: First, international input factors drove up prices in China's petroleum-related industries. Rising international crude oil prices drove up prices in domestic petroleum-related industries. Specifically, prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction industry rose 18.5% MoM, petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry prices rose 16.4%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing prices rose 8.3%, chemical fiber manufacturing prices rose 5.6%, and rubber and plastics products industry prices rose 1.7%. Second, increased demand in some domestic industries drove prices higher. Rapid growth in computing power demand and accelerated electrification pushed optical fiber manufacturing prices up 22.5% MoM, external storage devices and components prices up 3.2%, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices up 0.2%. Restocking demand for thermal coal was released, combined with increased non-power coal demand from chemical and metallurgical industries, driving coal mining and washing industry prices up 1.9%. Continued advancement of manufacturing equipment upgrades drove increased steel demand, pushing ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing industry prices up 0.6%. Third, competition order in the Chinese market continued to improve, with prices in related industries rising or declines narrowing. Efforts to address "involution-style" competition continued to show results, with lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices up 1.6% MoM, new energy vehicle manufacturing prices down 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. As no reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 500 million yuan was achieved. US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index was up 0.24% at 98.08. Data from the US Department of Labor showed that US April non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, thanks to strong corporate earnings and enterprises' effective response to supply chain disruptions triggered by the Iran war. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, in line with economists' expectations. From trade to immigration to tax policy, changes across various fronts posed challenges for enterprises, but most did not resort to large-scale layoffs. At the same time, enterprises appeared to take various intertwined headwinds in stride. Robust consumer demand meant that despite news of high-profile layoffs at well-known companies, low hiring was often accompanied by relatively low levels of layoffs. Data from the Department of Labor and human resources firm ADP earlier this week showed that the job market was stabilizing. Strong hiring in healthcare and social assistance also underpinned overall employment figures. US equities at or near record highs boosted confidence among corporate CEOs. The full impact of the conflict with Iran and the resulting rise in energy prices had yet to manifest in the labour market. Rising US oil prices had put greater pressure on lower-income households, which could dampen travel and services spending, in turn dragging on hiring in sectors such as retail and leisure. The impact of higher oil prices was particularly severe for airlines. However, these effects had yet to show up clearly in monthly employment data. According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 93.8%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 88.8%, with a 10.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) Goldman Sachs expects the US Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in December 2026 and March 2027, compared with its previous forecast of cuts in September and December this year. A CITIC Securities research report noted that US nonfarm payrolls in April 2026 came in above expectations, while the unemployment rate of 4.3% was in line with expectations. We believe April data better reflected the current state of the US job market than the previous two months: first, one-off factors diminished in April; second, the enterprise response rate was higher in April; and third, the Birth-death model impact was the smallest among the last four data releases. Demand side, the US labour market in April exhibited overall resilience with marginally increasing layoff pressure. Supply side, the labour force participation rate and employment-population ratio declined, but the prime-age (25–54) participation rate remained stable, suggesting it was not a large-scale exit of core labour force but rather aging and retirement factors dragging down the overall participation rate. Regarding US Fed monetary policy, we maintain our previous view: after Waller takes over, if the Iran situation eases and oil prices pull back, driving inflation expectations lower, the base case for H2 is one interest rate cut of 25 bps. Other currencies: Bearish yen positions decreased significantly after Japanese authorities intervened to support the yen, highlighting how official action curbed this crowded trade. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), leveraged funds reduced their net short positions on the yen in the week ending May 5. Currently, their net short position in the Japanese yen stood at 61,340 contracts, valued at approximately $4.9 billion, hitting the lowest level in nearly a month. Meanwhile, asset management firms also cut 13,839 short contracts, bringing their open interest down to 10,653 contracts. "Given the intervention risk and strong official warnings, chasing yen shorts near the 160 level has become unattractive," said Stefan Rittner, Senior Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors. He held a neutral stance on the USD/JPY exchange rate. However, he noted that "despite the yen's already cheap valuation, persistent structural headwinds limit the scope for a sustained rebound"; moreover, further intervention risks are expected to rise once the USD/JPY rate approaches its previous highs again. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released today include US April existing home sales annualized total and China's April M2 money supply year-on-year. In addition, attention should be paid to: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan, where he will meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the central bank governor, and the Finance Minister. Crude oil: As of 11:46, oil prices in both markets surged significantly, with WTI up 4.65% and Brent up 4.17%. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran supported oil prices. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump posted on social media on May 10, expressing dissatisfaction with Iran's response, calling it "completely unacceptable." This statement cast a shadow over the already fragile Middle East ceasefire situation. Oil prices jumped sharply after the news broke. (Wallstreetcn) Data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler showed that two more fully loaded crude oil tankers switched off their trackers while passing through the Strait of Hormuz last week to evade Iranian attacks. Data indicated that the very large crude carrier "Basrah Energy" loaded 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum crude oil from ADNOC's Zirku terminal on May 1 and passed through the Strait of Hormuz on May 6. The vessel discharged its cargo at the Fujairah tanker terminal on May 11. It remained unclear which company chartered the tanker owned and managed by shipping company Sinokor. ADNOC and its buyers had recently dispatched tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on multiple occasions to transport crude oil, in response to the issue of stranded oil in the Persian Gulf caused by Middle East conflicts. Another very large crude carrier, Kiara M, switched off its transponder and departed the Persian Gulf on Sunday, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil. The discharge destination of this San Marino-flagged tanker remained unclear. (Jin Shi Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►