[SMM Daily Review: US Fed Ceasefire Expectations Rise, Gold and Silver Surge Awaiting US Fed Decision] SMM, July 27: Trump suspended airstrikes on Iran, briefly cooling geopolitical tensions, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices. Eased inflation and rate hike expectations spurred a rebound in precious metals. The spot market maintained parity transactions, with a supply-demand weakness pattern persisting.

July 23, 2026 Gold reached its highest level in two weeks on Wednesday at roughly $4,130 an ounce , lifted by a fresh round of escalation between the United States and Iran. By Thursday morning, however, much of that gain was already unwinding. The reason is a mechanism many investors are currently underestimating: this war affects gold not only through fear, but above all through oil. Two steps forward, one step back After weeks of grinding sideways action around the $4,000 mark, the gold market finally saw some movement on Wednesday. Bargain hunters stepped in at depressed levels while the widening Middle East crisis lifted risk aversion. The result was the highest print in two weeks, with quotes between roughly $4,130 and $4,137. This is not euphoria, though. On Thursday morning the most actively traded gold future (August) gave back around $24 to trade near $4,127, surrendering part of the previous session's advance. For context: gold remains roughly 25 percent below its January 2026 all-time high of $5,598. The year so far has been a story in two acts for gold investors — a spectacular opening and a drawn-out correction. The trigger: Hormuz and the Red Sea The geopolitical picture has deteriorated markedly since the start of July. Overnight into Thursday, the US military flew a multi-hour wave of strikes against targets inside Iran, according to regional command Centcom. In parallel, Iran-backed Houthi forces said they had attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea. That puts two of the world's most important energy transit routes in play simultaneously: the Strait of Hormuz, which in normal times carries around one-fifth of globally traded oil, and the Red Sea passage. Three tankers carrying Saudi crude bound for Asia had already changed course on Tuesday. When shipowners avoid routes, voyages lengthen and insurance premiums climb — and the risk premium embedded in the oil price rises with them. That is precisely what has happened. Brent for September delivery pushed above $96 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since early June, last trading near $95.78 — up almost two percent on the day. The pace is what stands out: in early July, Brent was still around $70. The April high of roughly $126 remains some distance away, but the direction of travel is unambiguous. The oil paradox: why war is no free ride for gold This is the crux of the current setup, and it runs against many investors' instincts. The intuitive equation is: war equals uncertainty equals higher gold. That holds — but only for the first step. An oil price that gains around 35 percent in three weeks is inflationary. US inflation already hit 4.2 percent in June, the highest reading in three years. Rising inflation shifts expectations for the Federal Reserve, and it shifts them in the direction that hurts gold. Instead of debating rate cuts, the market is now debating hikes. In a Reuters poll, a majority expects the Fed to hold rates steady through year-end, yet the same respondents described the probability of a hike this year as high. For a non-yielding asset like gold, that is bad news. Higher real rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion. The geopolitical tailwind and the monetary headwind therefore spring from the same source — the war in the Gulf. Anyone reading gold purely as a crisis barometer right now will struggle to make sense of the price action. Next week the Fed decides The coming days bring the test. US purchasing managers' indices are due Friday, followed by the Federal Reserve meeting next week. The tone accompanying the decision matters more than the decision itself: if the Fed signals willingness to treat the oil effect as transitory, gold has room to run. If it emphasises its resolve on inflation, pressure on the metal is likely to build. Technically, the support zone between roughly $3,900 and $4,100 remains the decisive area. As long as it holds, the current pullback can be read as a consolidation within an intact longer-term uptrend. A sustained break below would materially darken the picture. On the upside, the $4,300 to $4,400 region is the first meaningful hurdle. What it means for mining and exploration equities For the resource sector, the oil shock carries a second dimension that is easy to overlook: diesel is one of the largest single cost items in open-pit mining. Haul fleets, explosives manufacturing, ore processing and — in many jurisdictions — on-site power generation are all directly exposed to the oil price. A Brent move from $70 to above $95 therefore feeds through to producers' all-in sustaining costs with a lag, compressing margins whenever the gold price fails to keep pace. The implication for investors: cost lines deserve particular scrutiny in the current reporting season. Producers with access to cheap grid power or their own generation capacity are structurally better positioned in this environment than those dependent on diesel gensets. Exploration companies without production are less exposed to this effect — their cost base is driven primarily by drilling rates and rig availability. For them, the decisive variable remains the market's appetite to fund, and that continues to hinge above all on the gold price itself and on general risk appetite. Conclusion The two-week high shows that safe-haven demand for gold is very much alive. But the Iran war simultaneously supplies the metal with its own adversary, by way of oil prices, inflation and rate expectations. The resolution of that tension is more likely to come out of Washington than Tehran — at next week's Fed meeting. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-hits-two-week-high-why-the-iran-war-is-holding-bullion-back-rather-than-driving-it

[SMM Analysis: Jiuwu Hi-Tech's LATP Solid-State Electrolyte Passes 4.62V Extreme Overcharge Test, Ceramic Membrane Giant's Dual-Track Solid-State Battery Layout] Jiuwu Hi-Tech's LATP solid-state electrolyte was applied in NCM811 pouch batteries and passed the extreme overcharge (4.62V) and over-discharge (0V) tests according to GB38031-2020, with no smoke, fire, or explosion throughout the process, a temperature rise of ≤5°C, and a significantly improved safety margin. The company has adopted a dual-track layout of oxides (LLZO/LATP) and sulphides, achieved mt-level mass production and supplied leading battery cell enterprises, while advancing a hundred-mt-level pilot scale-up. Leveraging nearly 30 years of ceramic membrane technology expertise, it is positioning itself in the key materials segment for solid-state batteries.

Looking back at China’s magnesium market in the first half of 2026, the supply-over-demand dynamic shifted subtly amid earlier concentrated production shutdowns by magnesium smelters. Tight spot supply and low inventory levels created sound fundamental conditions for a periodic rally in magnesium ingot prices. Coupled with market sentiment stirred by news of surging magnesium alloy demand, speculative demand surged and purchasing sentiment across the market strengthened notably.

This week, the MHP market supply-demand pattern remained loose, and nickel and cobalt payables stayed weak. On the supply side, after the strait was reopened, some producers' MHP output recovered, while some traders also released inventories to a certain extent recently, boosting market availability. On the demand side, downstream nickel salt and cobalt salt prices remained sluggish, cobalt sulphate production faced heavy losses, and salt plants were relatively reluctant to accept high-priced MHP, putting pressure on MHP payables. Given the pattern of rising supply and weak demand, MHP payables may pull back in the short term. The high-grade nickel matte market was similarly in a pattern of both weak supply and demand. Currently, high-grade nickel matte held a clear economic advantage over MHP, but on the supply side, mainstream suppliers had completed long-term order signings, leaving limited available spot cargo; on the demand side, consumption was constrained by downstream production line compatibility, resulting in insufficient actual absorption capacity. Overall, purchase sentiment was weak, trading activity was low, and payables remained stable. The international sulphur market saw its geopolitical risk premium swing back and forth. In mid-June, the US-Iran truce briefly restored navigation, but on July 7 the ceasefire broke down, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked again, and Middle Eastern supplies continued to tighten. Compounding this, Kazakhstan’s indefinite ban on exports to countries other than Russia, Russia’s ban extended to the end of 2026, and Turkey’s ban lasting until the end of Q3 intensified short-term supply disruptions again, keeping sulphur prices swinging wildly at highs. In terms of nickel prices, nickel extended a technical rebound this week, but due to lower MHP payables, MHP nickel prices pulled back somewhat, while high-grade nickel matte prices improved slightly alongside the nickel rebound amid stable payables. Moreover, MHP cobalt prices also pulled back on the decline in cobalt payables. Overall, the intermediate product market will remain under pressure in the near term.

SMM, July 24: This week, secondary refined lead EXW transaction prices were at discounts of 100~50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and deliveries at parity within industrial parks were transacted. Some suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling, with quotations at premiums of 75~125 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, or even halted shipments. Raw material prices declined in tandem, but smelters remained deep in losses. As of July 24, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss value stood at -498 yuan/mt for large-scale secondary lead enterprises and -679 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized ones. Looking ahead to next week, expectations for secondary lead production cuts persist, with most cargo owners continuing to hold back from selling and waiting on the sidelines. The remaining supplies are expected to transact at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to parity. Lead price rebound space is limited, and the loss situation for smelters will be hard to reverse in the short term.