SMM, June 18: This week, trading sentiment weakened somewhat for domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises, with prices running steady. As of now, SMM’s aluminum fluoride reference price is 11,280-11,700 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM’s reference price at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side, the 97% fluorite wet powder market was largely stable, with mainstream delivery-to-factory prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt, and notable price spreads by region. Supply side, mine operating rates in the north continued to recover, and Mongolian imports gradually arrived at ports, resulting in a looser supply-demand pattern; however, a coal mine accident in Shanxi triggered expectations of stricter mine safety and environmental oversight, which may cause periodic disruptions to some mines’ production going forward, leaving a wait-and-see sentiment on the supply side. Demand side remained subdued—downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises, constrained by insufficient operating rates at refrigerant and fluoropolymer terminals, mainly made just-in-time procurement, with limited large-order follow-through. Consequently, fluorite prices are likely to stay weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the aluminum hydroxide market firmed slightly, with SMM’s weighted average price at 1,683 yuan/mt, up 1.2% WoW; the sulphuric acid market hovered at highs, as sulphur cost support and production cuts for maintenance tightened supply in some regions, but cautious demand during the phosphate fertiliser off-season capped upside room, while LFP and fine chemicals provided just-in-time demand support. Raw material side, both aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid strengthened, further lifting overall production costs, yet costs could not be effectively passed downstream, putting the industry as a whole under notable pressure. Supply side, a pattern of ‘rigidly high costs—persistent profit pressure—low operating rates’ persisted, with the industry operating rate holding around 40%, limiting effective incremental supply. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained high and stable, providing rigid support, but aluminum smelters focused on just-in-time restocking and pushing for lower prices, adopting a wait-and-see stance without releasing additional demand for the time being. On balance, the aluminum fluoride market currently lacks directional drivers, caught in a tug-of-war stalemate between upstream and downstream, with transactions limited to just-in-time procurement, and prices expected to largely stay steady in the near term, leaving limited room for wild swings. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material cost-side dynamics and marginal changes in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

Raw material side, this week lithium carbonate and nickel sulphate prices fluctuated, while cobalt sulphate prices continued to decline.

This week’s weekly TC for domestically produced Pb50 remained unchanged at an average of 200 yuan/mt Pb, while the average weekly TC for imported Pb60 was revised down to -$165/dmt. During the week, TCs for domestically produced standard ore held steady, but the market for high-grade lead concentrates (lead content above 55%) remained tight, with mainstream transactions primarily at zero or negative TCs. Additionally, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck Dachaidan in Haixi, Qinghai, during the week; according to SMM, lead and zinc mines in Qinghai were unaffected and production remained normal. For imported ore, limited arrivals and high sulphuric acid prices meant smelters had strong demand for ore, pushing TCs down further, with some silver-lead ore prices reported at -$260/dmt. Amid expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, disruption to lead concentrate supply has been minor, but market estimates suggest that if sulphuric acid prices fall sharply, thereby impacting primary lead smelter production, lead TCs may only then have a chance of stopping their decline. In the short term, ore supply remains tight.

On June 18, the average price of SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate edged down slightly.

On June 17, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

Sulfur physical delivery prices kept the downward trend this week. Market sources say that on June 15, the sulfur transaction price had fallen to yuan 9,500/mt, and on June 16, it rebounded slightly to yuan 9,600/mt, but compared to the peak transaction price of yuan 11,985/mt last Thursday (June 11), the gap has already exceeded yuan 2,000/mt. Today (June 17),SMM EXW Shandong Sulfur were further reduced, to a range of yuan 9,507–10,000/mt, with the average price reported at yuan 9,753.5/mt, down yuan 600/mt from yesterday, and the decline widened markedly. Looking back at recent movements, since June 5, the sulfur price started to rally rapidly from yuan 8,075/mt and on June 8 surged to yuan 9,625/mt, thereafter climbing to last week’s peak before pulling back quickly, causing market sentiment to take a sharp downturn. Currently, downstream buying sentiment is weak. Faced with the rapid price decline, buyers are showing strong wait-and-see sentiment, only maintaining purchases for rigid demand while pushing for lower prices. Support from major downstream demand—phosphate fertilisers and sulphuric acid—is insufficient, and the sulfur market still faces further downward pressure in the near term.