In H1 2026, China’s aluminum extrusion industry ran under three clear traits: feeble domestic demand recovery, overseas demand sliding first then bouncing back, and a sharp split between booming and sluggish product segments.

July 17, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market fluctuated slightly...

SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI average price dropped WoW by 3.1 yuan/nickel unit to 1,129.4 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), and the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price dropped WoW by $0.47/nickel unit to record $145.76/nickel unit.

June Price Review: The monthly average price of non-oriented silicon steel exhibited a bottoming-out decline in June. On the supply-demand front, the market shifted from a slight balance to a narrow undersupply, with fundamentals continuing to improve marginally. The oversupply that previously weighed on the market gradually eased, providing price support. Spot prices performed stronger than expected, edging down only slightly. As a transitional month shifting from off-season to peak season, the supply-demand pattern improved in June. Fundamental Analysis: China's production schedule for non-oriented silicon steel continued to decline in July. Comparing with the same period in previous years, the scheduled production in July 2026 was lower than that of July 2025. Analyzing by grade, the proportion of NEV grades in the July production schedule rebounded to 15%, high grades accounted for 19%, while the proportion of low and mid-end grades pulled back to 66%. Steel mills continued to adjust their product mix, with the scheduled production of conventional low and mid-end grades shrinking accordingly. While total scheduled production continued to contract, supply-side pressure persisted. Maintaining original production levels for NEV and high-grade resources while significantly reducing low and mid-end grades optimized the supply structure to some extent, supporting market resilience. Downstream demand for non-oriented silicon steel showed structural divergence in May. In the home appliance sector, total silicon steel consumption pulled back MoM, with air conditioners remaining the core demand driver. Demand from the automotive sector was strong, with silicon steel consumption climbing to a high level for the period in May. Specifically, passenger NEVs provided the largest support for automotive silicon steel demand. Overall, traditional demand from home appliances weakened marginally, while NEV demand continued to strengthen. The demand center shifted toward the automotive sector, generating structural benefits for high-grade and NEV-grade non-oriented silicon steel. July Price Outlook: Supply side, China's planned production schedule for non-oriented silicon steel continued to decrease in July 2026, with reductions primarily focused on low and mid-end grades. On one hand, the off-season impact became more pronounced, downstream demand was soft, and purchasing interest declined, curbing production activity. On the other hand, industry leaders like Baowu and Shougang kept base prices unchanged in July, prioritizing price stability, but bearish sentiment persisted, making prices more likely to fall than rise. Most producers were loss-making and cut production autonomously. Demand side, in the home appliance sector, enterprises slowed their production pace, with orders falling MoM. The 618 shopping festival provided no significant order stimulus. Affected by low demand, high inventory, and high costs, some enterprises cut their production schedules ahead of schedule, and the implementation of new energy efficiency standards for some appliance products led to model upgrades that restricted production. In the automotive sector, automakers generally maintained normal production paces, with some increasing production schedules this month to meet mid-year targets. However, the sales promotions of the 618 festival and policies yielded limited boosting effects, and sales pressure persisted. Breaking it down, NEVs remained the main sales driver this month, orders for internal combustion engine vehicles showed no significant improvement, and exports were mainly directed to markets such as Russia, South America, and Southeast Asia, with the industry's full-year export volume expected to reach 12 million units. Cost side, with steel mill profits continuing to shrink and expectations of normalized local environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal production is expected to continue to pull back. But as the off-season impact expands, the average hot-rolled coil price in July is expected to decline further MoM from June, though the extent of the decline will narrow. In summary, SMM expects that prices for low and mid-end non-oriented silicon steel will drift lower overall in July 2026, with some room for price reductions.

Price Review for June: In June, the monthly average price of non-oriented silicon steel trended downward, probing the bottom. Supply-demand side, the market shifted from a slight balance to a mild undersupply, with fundamentals improving marginally. The oversupply that had been weighing on prices gradually eased, providing support for prices. Spot prices performed stronger than expected, edging down only slightly. As a transitional month between the off-season and peak season, June saw the supply-demand pattern improve. Fundamentals Analysis: The July production schedule for domestic non-oriented silicon steel is planned to decline further. Compared with the same period in previous years, the July 2026 schedule was lower than that of July 2025. In terms of grade structure, the proportion of NEV grades in the July schedule is expected to rebound to 15%, high grades at 19%, and low and mid-end grades pull back to 66%. Steel mills continue to adjust their product mix, leading to corresponding reductions in low-end conventional grades. Overall scheduled production volume continues to shrink, but supply-side pressure persists. Production levels for NEV and high-grade materials are maintained, while low and mid-end grades are significantly reduced, optimizing the supply structure to some extent and supporting price resilience. Downstream demand for non-oriented silicon steel in May showed structural divergence. Total silicon steel consumption in the home appliance sector edged down MoM, with air conditioners remaining the core demand driver. The automobile sector demand was strong, with silicon steel consumption climbing to a high for the period. Within this, passenger NEVs were the biggest support for non-oriented silicon steel demand in the auto sector. Overall, traditional home appliance demand weakened marginally, while NEV demand continued to strengthen, gradually shifting the demand center toward the auto track. This structurally benefited high-grade and NEV-grade non-oriented silicon steel. July Price Outlook: Looking ahead to July 2026, on the supply side, China's non-oriented silicon steel production schedule is planned to decline further, primarily in low and mid-end grades. On one hand, the off-season impact is becoming more pronounced: downstream demand is weak, purchasing enthusiasm has fallen, weighing on production willingness. On the other hand, leading producers such as Baowu and Shougang kept their July base prices unchanged, prioritizing price stability. However, market sentiment is bearish and prices are more likely to fall than rise. Most producers are operating at a loss and implementing voluntary production cuts. On the demand side, in the home appliance industry, producers slowed their production pace, with orders declining MoM. The "618" shopping festival did not significantly stimulate orders. Affected by low demand, high inventory, and high costs, some enterprises lowered their production schedules ahead of time. Additionally, new energy efficiency standards for certain home appliances were introduced, limiting production due to product iteration. In the automobile industry, automakers mostly maintained normal production pace, with some increasing output this month to meet mid-year targets. However, sales pressure remained due to moderate effects of the "618" promotions and policy support. Breaking it down, NEVs remained the main sales driver this month, while orders for internal combustion engine vehicles did not improve significantly. Exports were mainly directed to Russia, South America, and Southeast Asia. Total annual export volume for the industry is expected to reach 12 million units. Cost side, with steel mill profits continuing to shrink and local environmental protection-driven production restrictions becoming normalized, hot metal production is expected to decline further. However, as the impact of the off-season expands, the July average hot-rolled coil price is expected to decline further MoM from June, with the decrease narrowing. Overall, SMM expects that mid- and low-grade non-oriented silicon steel prices in July 2026 will drift lower as a whole, with room for price declines. Data Source Statement: (All data in this report, other than publicly available information, are based on publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, NBS data, customs import and export data, and various data released by major associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM's internal database models. The research team has conducted comprehensive analysis and made reasonable inferences, which are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the right of final interpretation of the terms of this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement in accordance with actual conditions.

ChinaIOL data shows that in June 2026, China’s household air conditioner production totaled 17.76 million units, down 5.4% YoY; sales reached 18.195 million units, down 7.3% YoY. Of which, exports were 6.794 million units, down 7.1% YoY; domestic sales were 11.402 million units, down 7.4% YoY. According to the data, the market remains on a downward trajectory, but the overall decline is narrowing, and both domestic sales and exports are showing signs of recovery. Domestic Sales Market: Boosted by the 618 Shopping Festival, Downward Trend Narrows In the domestic sales market, the decline in household air conditioner shipments noticeably narrowed in June, mainly boosted by the 618 shopping festival, which helped destock online inventory and prompted some restocking among enterprises. However, terminal market performance during 618 still fell short of previous years. On the cost side, prices remained high and fluctuated, while end-user prices were still locked in fierce competition. Sales of mid- to high-end products have declined to some extent this year, the overall price structure of the market has been shifting downward, and enterprise profitability is facing considerable pressure. With June ending, some listed home appliance companies are about to release semi-annual reports, and driven by the pressure of financial reporting, enterprises are likely to sell more aggressively in June in an effort to give a good account to the market. Cumulative domestic sales in January–June reached 62.822 million units, down 5.6% YoY. As the data indicates, the overall domestic sales market in H1 remained under pressure, coming from persistently high costs and inventories on the one hand, and from the phasing out of state subsidies and diminishing marginal returns on the other. Consumers who have been ‘educated’ by low prices now have longer and more cautious purchasing cycles, which feeds back into the market as price involution across the industry. In such an environment, the industry is undergoing a new wave of reshuffling, and enterprises without orders or with poor profitability will be eliminated from the market. Export Market: Decline Narrowing in Sync, Localized Heatwaves Facilitate Destocking In the export market, although some regional markets have seen a partial recovery, exports still fell 7.1% YoY and 10.4% MoM. The dual decline was mainly due to some regions entering the off-season, coupled with accumulated inventory pressure, making overseas dealers less willing to restock. As high temperatures overseas gradually subside, market sales will slowly taper off, and the export scale is expected to return to around 5 million units by July. This is also part of the seasonal structural changes in household air conditioners; as the export off-season sets in, the focus will gradually shift back to the domestic sales market. Cumulative exports in January–June reached 52.703 million units, down 6.8% YoY. In H1 this year, the household air conditioner export market exhibited regional divergence and uneven recovery, with climate, inventory, economic, and policy cycle mismatches being the core influencing factors, while aftershocks of geopolitical conflicts and differing national policies further amplified market uncertainty. In addition, climate trends, inventory cycles, the pace of economic recovery, and changes in trade and energy efficiency policies in core countries vary across regions. Taking Europe as an example, the booming Western European market contrasts with the sluggish Eastern European market. Moreover, the data does not fully represent the overall market picture, and the characteristics of different markets need to be considered. The Western European market is dominated by rental housing, and coupled with local installation policy restrictions, extreme heat has boosted sales of portable air conditioners. In addition, market expectations regarding the weather are also driving growth. However, structural divergence remains pronounced. According to ChinaIOL, the inventory of split-type air conditioners in the Western European market is still saturated, and installation difficulties and environmental protection restrictions have been constraining the growth of split-type units.