After the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic aluminum market entered the traditional resumption cycle, but the problem of aluminum ingot inventory buildup became prominent. Warehouses in major consumption areas faced comprehensive capacity constraints, and congestion at railway stations was widespread. Overall inventory pressure is expected to persist until the end of March...

On February 28, Israeli Air Force fighter jets crossed thousands of kilometers of airspace to conduct a daylight precision strike on the center of Tehran, Iran's capital, drawing significant market attention. How will this conflict impact zinc concentrates? .

SMM, February 28th， Driven by the global clean energy transition, the energy storage industry is achieving steady growth. Its core value lies in effectively mitigating the inherent intermittency and volatility of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, providing critical assurance for stable clean electricity output. This development trend will sustainably drive demand for key metals across the energy storage supply chain. As one of the core materials, aluminum applications in energy storage systems primarily focus on aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and extrusions. I. Scale of Aluminum Consumption in ESS According to SMM calculations, each 1GWh energy storage system consumes approximately 1,780 tons of aluminum , of which aluminum extrusions account for about 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for about 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for about 18%. From the perspective of industry growth drivers, global energy storage cell production is entering a period of rapid growth: According to SMM estimates, the global demand for energy storage cells will be approximately 559 GWh in 2025, and is expected to reach 779 GWh in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 39%; even as the base expands, the annual demand from 2027 to 2030 will still maintain a growth rate of over 20%. In terms of aluminum demand, Chinese enterprises dominate the energy storage market, driving increased domestic aluminum consumption. SMM research indicates China's energy storage battery cabinet shipments will reach approximately 400GWh in 2025, accounting for over 80% of global share. Based on SMM's calculation of 1,780 tons of aluminum per GWh for energy storage systems and global battery cabinet shipments, the global aluminum demand for energy storage systems in 2025 will reach 850,000 tons, with China consuming approximately 710,000 tons. Domestic demand for aluminum in energy storage is projected to increase by 280,000 tons in 2026. However, it should be noted that with the continuous iteration of large-cell technology, the unit consumption of aluminum structural components in energy storage systems has room for reduction. In the long term, there is still potential for optimizing aluminum consumption per unit. II. Calculation of Aluminum Profile Materials per Unit of ESS Due to design variations across different energy storage products, this section separates aluminum consumption calculations for energy storage cells from other system components . 1.Core Application Scenarios of Aluminum Materials in EES Aluminum materials, with advantages such as lightweight, corrosion resistance, and excellent processing performance, have been deeply integrated into the core components of ESS, with their main applications concentrated in three major areas: Energy Storage Cell Component: Primarily used for cell aluminum foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Pack Component : Primarily used for battery trays, liquid cooling plates, battery end plates, and battery enclosures, etc. Energy Storage System Component: Main applications include energy storage system enclosures, radiators, etc. 2.Aluminum Consumption in Energy Storage Cells Aluminum usage in energy storage cells primarily involves battery foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Currently, the aluminum consumption per cell is approximately 615t/GWh, with aluminum foil accounting for 300-330 t/GWh. 3.Aluminum Consumption in ESS Due to variations in technical approaches and application scenarios, different manufacturers employ distinct design solutions for energy storage systems. When calculating aluminum consumption, we use industry average values: In industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage projects, each rack is on average configured with 4.5 battery packs. In grid-side energy storage projects, each rack averages 8 battery packs, with each system containing an average of 12 rack. The aluminum components of the battery pack include the tray, liquid cooling plate, box body, and end plate. The structure of the battery tray is similar to that of new energy vehicle battery trays, but the product specifications are smaller and the cross-sectional design is more simplified. SMM calculates the aluminum consumption of a single battery pack based on the average weight data of components provided by mainstream aluminum production enterprises. In addition, the core equipment of the energy storage system, the power conversion system (PCS), and its supporting radiator also need to consume aluminum materials.While aluminum enclosures exist for ESS, market research indicates steel enclosures currently dominate the market, with aluminum enclosures holding less than 20% market share. The weight range per unit is from several hundred kilograms to 2 tons. Based on the above parameter calculations: the comprehensive aluminum consumption of industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage systems is 2030 tons/GWh,while for grid-side energy storage systems it is 1,720 tons/GWh. Weighted by the shipment share of different energy storage system types, the final comprehensive aluminum consumption for energy storage systems is calculated as 1,780 t/GWh. 4.Consumption Structure of Aluminum Materials in Energy Storage Systems From a production process perspective, the manufacturing methods for core components such as aluminum casings and liquid cooling plates encompass multiple pathways including sheet metal stamping, profile processing, and casting. This section breaks down the consumption structure of aluminum material categories in energy storage systems based on the proportion of mainstream process applications: aluminum extrusions account for approximately 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for approximately 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for approximately 18%.

28th of Feburary: According to SMM statistics, in February 2026, overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 12.41% month-on-month and 3.66% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down by 0.01 percentage point month-on-month to 76.17%, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year. Overall, overseas alumina production was relatively stable during the month. By region: Asia: On February 6, Lam Dong Province in Vietnam approved the expansion plans for two alumina projects under Vinacomin, with a total investment of VND 59.855 trillion (approximately USD 2.3 billion). One is to add a production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons at the Nhan Co alumina plant in Dak Nong Province, which is expected to be commissioned in 2030 with an operating period of 30 years. The other is to expand the Tan Rai alumina plant in Lam Dong Province, planning to build a second production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons. Construction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2030 and operation to begin in the fourth quarter. According to SMM research, Vietnam's local bauxite resources are relatively abundant, providing stable raw material support for the commissioning of these projects. It is expected that they will have significant cost advantages, potentially enhancing the export competitiveness of alumina in the long term. Europe: In order to reduce the negative environmental impact of road transportation, Alteo alumina plant has partnered with HES Fos, planning to relocate most of its logistics operations from the port of Marseille to the port of Fos-sur-Mer. Under the agreement, HES Fos will be responsible for unloading ships, storing hydrated alumina, and subsequently transporting it to Alteo's plant in Gardanne. In the future, HES Fos will renovate an existing clinker warehouse specifically for storing hydrated alumina to ensure the smooth operation of the supply chain. The construction of this dedicated facility has entered the execution phase and is expected to be put into operation in 2029, providing reliable support for the logistics and storage of alumina in the long term. Australia: On February 13, Australian company Alpha HPA announced the groundbreaking of the second phase of its planned world's largest single-site high-purity alumina refinery. The project will utilize the company's proprietary solvent extraction and refining technology to commercially produce high-purity alumina products with a purity of 99.99%, providing key raw materials for industries such as global lithium batteries, LED lights, and semiconductor manufacturing. Middle East: On February 28, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, with an attack on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Currently, no shutdowns of alumina plants in the region have been reported. According to SMM statistics, Iran has only one alumina plant, which is equipped with bauxite production capacity. If geopolitical conflicts further intensify, the plant's production could be affected, and the possibility of output cuts or shutdowns cannot be ruled out. Data show that Iran's annual alumina output is about 250,000 tons, and bauxite output is about 650,000 tons. Its alumina production cannot meet the domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum production, and it has long relied on imports, with India being the main source. Alumina imports from India account for 40% to 80% of Iran's total imports. Outlook for March 2026: Overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to increase by 12.65% month-on-month and decrease slightly by 2.38% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be 77.45%, up 0.01 percentage point month-on-month and down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the international political situation on alumina production.

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict became the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions at a scale of millions of mt, while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with market risk-averse sentiment, the volatility of aluminum prices may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of conflicts, strait blockades, and raw material supply interruptions, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macroeconomic disturbances, and to prudently address the operational and investment risks brought about by fluctuations in the supply chain.

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict has become the major geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing millions of tonnes of supply disruptions and raising smelting costs. Coupled with risk aversion, aluminum price volatility may intensify.