SMM June 10 news: Metal markets: The domestic base metals market mostly fell overnight. SHFE copper fell 0.34%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.67%, and SHFE lead fell 0.4%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 1.1%. SHFE nickel fell 1.34%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.68%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract closed flat at 22,995 yuan/mt. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.26%, HRC flat at 3,360 yuan/mt, stainless steel down 0.69%, and rebar up 0.19%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.58%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 0.38%. On the overseas metals market overnight, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.23%. LME aluminum fell 2.08%, and LME lead fell 0.38%. LME zinc rose 0.33%. LME tin rose 0.16%. LME nickel fell 2.2%. Overnight precious metals market : Overnight COMEX gold fell 1.8%, and COMEX silver fell 4.56%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 1.51%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 4.06%. Bob Haberkorn, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, stated: "Traders are slightly uneasy about the current market situation... A broad risk-off mode has taken hold across all markets. I believe this risk-off sentiment is what drove gold prices down." Haberkorn added: "Until the US Fed provides clearer guidance, gold and silver prices remain under downward pressure." (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank stated that gold futures prices closed below their 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, following last Friday's non-farm payrolls report and a broad deterioration in risk sentiment that also weighed on stock markets. The combination of a resilient US economy and rising inflation expectations is creating a challenging environment for gold, overshadowing long-term supportive factors such as central bank purchases, fiscal concerns, and reserve diversification. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:19 on June 10, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Guangdong: Over 3 million charging facilities to be built province-wide by the end of 2027, meeting the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs] The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued the "Guangdong Province EV Charging Facility High-Quality Development Action Plan." The plan proposes to build a high-quality charging facility system where super-charging, fast charging, and slow charging complement each other by continuously innovating application scenarios, improving charging networks, enhancing charging efficiency, optimizing service quality, and innovating the industrial ecosystem. This aims to promote the balanced development of charging facilities in eastern, western, and northern Guangdong alongside the Pearl River Delta region, and facilitate the wider purchase and use of EVs. By the end of 2027, the province will have cumulatively built over 3 million charging facilities to meet the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs; the province will achieve "super-charging coverage in every county," with the number of super-charging stations no fewer than the number of gas stations. (Jinshi Data APP) [CPCA: Retail sales in China's domestic narrow PV market reached 1.51 million units in May 2026] According to the latest retail sales statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales in China's domestic narrow passenger vehicle (PV) market reached 1.51 million units in May 2026, down 22.1% YoY, but up 9.2% MoM. Cumulative sales from January to May totaled 7.099 million units, down 19.5% YoY. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.95. Data: The weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending May 23 was 29,000, compared to the previous figure of 35,750. Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, stated that the US May headline CPI YoY rate is expected to jump from 3.8% to 4.2%, which would be the highest level since March 2023. But the real concern isn't the headline number; it's the potentially entrenched "sticky" items like housing, insurance, and services. These categories could keep inflation persistently above the US Fed's comfort zone, as they may remain elevated for longer. Woods noted that high inflation driven by gasoline is typically less worrying, whereas sustained price increases in housing and services could be a trend that takes time to reverse. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 1.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through July is 85.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point hike at 12.6% and a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 1.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) China Securities pointed out that in the short term, the probability of a US Fed interest rate hike remains low, and market concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, based on assumptions of sticky domestic US inflation and a persistently hot job market. CME FedWatch data indicates that the most likely timing for a Fed rate hike expected by markets outside China begins in late October 2026. The current tightening of global liquidity and market adjustments represent a front-running reaction to expectations of a Q4 Fed rate hike. Regarding the domestic bond market, increased expectations for Fed tightening are not bearish. China's bond market is relatively independent and has a small correlation with US Treasuries. Furthermore, given ample domestic liquidity, the anticipated tightening of overseas liquidity and adjustments in equity markets could potentially drive capital flows into the bond market, supporting the current level of long-term bonds. Subsequently, China's 10-year government bond yield is expected to continue oscillating around the 1.70% level; a break below 1.70% still requires the emergence of new incremental information from domestic sources. Data: Today will see the release of China's May CPI YoY, the US May unadjusted CPI YoY, the US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, the US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, the US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of June 10, and China's May M2 money supply YoY (date TBD), among other data points. Also, attention should be paid to: the Bank of Canada's announcement of its interest rate decision; and the monetary policy press conference held by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with US crude oil down 2.85% and Brent crude oil down 2.03%. Oil prices were volatile on Tuesday. Trump stated earlier in the day that negotiations with Iran were "in the final stages of a very, very good deal," pushing Brent crude lower. However, Trump subsequently posted on social media stating that Iran had shot down a US Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz and declared "the US must respond," causing oil prices to jump immediately. Iranian officials further warned afterward that "foreign military forces near Iran face risks," briefly lifting oil prices further. Despite this, crude oil closed lower. (Wall Street CN) Data: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 5 fell by 9.119 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 3.421 million barrels, with the prior figure showing a draw of 6.757 million barrels. The US API gasoline inventory for the week ending June 5 fell by 1.191 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 614,000 barrels, with the prior figure showing a build of 3.454 million barrels. (Jinshi Data APP) The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on Tuesday local time that due to crude oil production losses exceeding 11 million barrels per day in the Middle East caused by the Iran war, major consumer nations are drawing down inventories to bridge supply shortfalls at an unprecedented rate. Consequently, oil inventories among OECD members are heading toward their lowest levels since at least 2003. The EIA stated that under its current assumptions, where maritime shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before the beginning of 2027, total oil inventories held by OECD member nations will fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jinshi Data APP)

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Expectations for US Fed Rate Hikes Increase Significantly, LME Zinc Under Pressure]: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,594/mt. In early trading, with bulls and bears intertwined, the center of LME zinc edged lower, fluctuating around $3,570/mt. The center then rebounded, and during the night session, LME zinc surged to a high of $3,602/mt. Subsequently, bears added a large number of positions, and at the end of the session, LME zinc dipped to a low of $3,522.5/mt, finally closing down at $3,540/mt, down $54.5/mt, a decline of 1.52%. Trading volume increased to 11,703 lots, and open interest increased by 3,251 lots to 234,000 lots.

May 31, 2026 Over the past two weeks, the price of gold has failed to recover further. Instead, its failure to break through the falling 50-day moving average increased downward pressure, causing gold to be pushed back down to $4,366 this morning—and thus to the 200-day moving average—amid the resurgent Iran crisis. Silver presents a similar picture; here, even lower price targets are in play. Overall, precious metals have been in a healthy but treacherous and confusing correction since the end of January, one that is likely not yet over. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains the dominant and highly unpredictable risk factor for commodity and financial markets . A sustainable solution does not appear to be in sight. Rather, physical oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-crisis levels. Europe’s reserves have so far cushioned the supply bottlenecks but are now nearing depletion. As long as the logistical bottlenecks remain unresolved, volatility will stay high. In addition, the vulnerability of financial markets is increasing. Short-term signs of peace can abruptly push oil prices down, while setbacks or military escalations drive them back up just as quickly—an environment in which precious metals are also suffering. On the macro side, however, the dilemma for risk assets is intensifying, particularly for the heavily overbought stock markets. The recent price increases caused by rising energy prices heighten the risk of accelerating inflation, meaning central banks could be forced to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy. Whether the central banks can actually implement this at all, given the complex and fragile starting point, remains questionable, however. However, the mere expectation of higher real interest rates could put further pressure on the gold price, even if this interest rate trend ultimately fails to materialize. At the same time, rising energy prices are supporting the inflation outlook and, in the long term, the demand for inflation-protected assets . China continues to shift into gold Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, as of May 25, 2026. © Bloomberg At the same time, China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries have fallen to their lowest level since 2008, while official gold reserves continue to rise. China is thus consistently shifting assets from dollars to gold. However, the decline in Treasury holdings is also, to some extent, a matter of accounting. A significant portion of China’s reserves was apparently held through custodians such as Belgium or transferred to the balance sheets of state-owned banks. Economically, the exposure to U.S. Treasury bonds thus remains, even if it no longer appears directly under China’s name in official statistics. The composition has therefore changed more significantly than the actual risk. What is changing, however, is the nature of sovereign risk management. Like other strategically minded nations, China is gradually reducing its vulnerability to assets carrying political counterparty risk. While U.S. Treasuries are liquid and deeply traded, they ultimately remain claims within a Western-dominated financial system. Under extreme conditions, they can be frozen or subject to sanctions. Gold, on the other hand, has no issuer, no counterparty risk, no digital barriers to access, and has been money for millennia. The Chinese are not seeking an abrupt exit from the Western financial system, but rather a reduction in dependence and greater freedom of action. Nevertheless, the price of gold has been in a correction since the end of January, which, in our view, is more than justified and, above all, healthy following the spectacular gains of the past three and a half years. Semiconductor Boom vs. Dot-Com Bubble, May 27, 2026. © The Great Martis The only real cause for concern is that stock markets have recently surged into parabolic price movements amid a very fragile, geopolitically strained environment. The AI rally has driven semiconductor stocks in particular into completely overvalued territory: The semiconductor sector is currently more overbought than it has been in twenty years. NVIDIA is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of around 33 and has posted a 44% gain in the last two months alone. Micron Technology has seen its share price rise by 1,450% over the past 14 months! Margin levels (i.e., speculative trading on credit) stand at approximately $1.3 trillion (5.2% of GDP), exceeding the peak levels of 2008 and the dot-com era. Should a reversal and correction occur here, precious metals are likely to be dragged down with them in a temporary liquidity crunch. That is why we would like to mention our worst-case scenario of $3,500 for the gold price once again at this point. Gold – Our price target “200-day line” was reached today Gold in US dollars, daily chart as of May 28, 2026. © GOLD.DE As suspected, the falling 50-day line ($4,628) has stopped the gold price twice on its way up over the past six weeks. In light of this difficult-to-overcome and psychologically burdensome barrier, a new, sharp downward wave began on May 12, which today reached our repeatedly mentioned price target in the form of the 200-day line ($4,392). This means that, in our view, the bulk of the correction potential for the gold price has been exhausted for now. We had consistently emphasized that the first support level at the 200-day moving average of $4,100 from March 23 did not constitute a sufficiently solid foundation. However, the problem is that the silver price has not yet reached its 200-day moving average (US$66.56) during the correction that has been underway since late January, and no real panic has yet been observed in the precious metals sector. Despite the already oversold conditions in the gold market, we would therefore not be surprised to see the correction continue down to the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart ($4,289). Overall, the price action reflects a typical spring correction. We already see buying opportunities again between $4,250 and $4,400. We initially expect a bottom to form in this range, which should then lay the foundation for a foreseeable recovery and the summer rally. Conclusion: Gold – Correction Continues, Buying Opportunities Ahead Gold and silver have been undergoing a healthy but not yet complete correction since late January: Gold failed twice at the falling 50-day moving average and has now fallen back to its 200-day moving average. Silver, on the other hand, still faces significantly more downside risk, as the 200-day moving average has not yet been tested at all. Although a test of the lower weekly Bollinger Bands around $4,280 on the gold market would therefore not be surprising, we already see attractive entry prices between $4,250 and $4,400. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remain high and are increasing volatility in the short term: The Iran crisis and the ongoing bottlenecks through the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on commodity and energy markets and weaken Europe’s security of supply. In the long term, however, China’s shift from U.S. Treasuries to gold supports demand for precious metals. Only a broad-based sell-off in the heavily overbought stock markets—driven by high margin leverage and an overheated semiconductor/AI rally—could also put gold under significant short-term pressure in the event of a liquidity crunch; our worst-case scenario therefore remains $3,500. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-correction-continues-buying-opportunities-are-emerging

May 29, 2026 A crumbling foundation for U.S. growth, coupled with stubborn inflation and renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, are exacerbating the Federal Reserve’s macroeconomic dilemma. For investors in real assets, this mix of data recently sent a clear signal: while stock markets are struggling to digest monetary policy uncertainty, precious metals have posted significant gains. Spot gold rebounded noticeably, and industrially driven silver rose even more dynamically. U.S. growth falters – inflation remains hot The U.S. economy is losing momentum faster than expected. Economic growth for the first quarter was revised down significantly from the previously reported 2.0% to an annualized 1.6%. This slowdown temporarily eased pressure on bond yields. In contrast, inflation remains stubbornly high, causing headaches for the Federal Reserve: The PCE price index for April rose 0.4% month-over-month and remains at a high 3.8% year-over-year. The core PCE index (excluding food and energy), which is crucial for monetary policy, rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. Both indicators thus remain well above the official stability target of 2%. For the gold price, it was primarily the interplay of these factors that tipped the scales on Thursday: The combination of weaker growth and a slightly cooler monthly core PCE figure eased concerns about further interest rate hikes, causing the dollar index (-0.1% to 99.16) and yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to decline slightly. Since physical precious metals do not yield interest, their relative attractiveness increased as a result of this stabilization. Geopolitical powder keg in the Strait of Hormuz In addition to U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz is driving up risk premiums in the markets. The critical waterway, through which a large portion of global crude oil exports passes, remains fiercely contested. Over the past 48 hours, ongoing skirmishes in the area have kept volatility high. Although a preliminary 60-day framework plan is currently being negotiated—which calls for an extension of the ceasefire, the reopening of shipping lanes without fees, and a resumption of nuclear talks—a final agreement has yet to be reached. For the real assets sector, this results in two opposing effects: A diplomatic solution would dampen oil prices and ease inflation concerns, which could weaken the dollar and support precious metals. Further military escalation, on the other hand, would further fuel energy prices (WTI currently at $88.90, Brent at $92.72) and thus global inflation, forcing the Fed to adopt a restrictive stance. Conclusion: In the short term, the gold price remains caught between weakening U.S. economic data and geopolitically driven inflation risks. However, the fundamentals for hard assets appear extremely robust in this stagflationary environment. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-caught-in-a-stagflation-dilemma-u-s-weakness-meets-the-hormuz-crisis

SMM News, May 25: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.06%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.47%. SHFE lead rose 0.06%, SHFE zinc rose 0.34%. SHFE tin gained 1.22%. SHFE nickel rose 0.23%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.54%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.37%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.58%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 1.07%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.48%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 0.25%, rebar rose 1.23%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.03%, and stainless steel edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract and the most-traded coke contract hit the daily limit up with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. Overseas base metals: The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed on May 25 for the UK bank holiday and will resume trading on May 26. Precious metals: as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.86% and COMEX silver gained 2.44%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures rose 0.64% and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 2.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.2% and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.36% to 2,901 points. As of 11:38 on May 25, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 360 yuan/mt to a discount of 280 yuan/mt. The average price fell 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price was 105,230 yuan/mt, up 1,035 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Macro front Domestic: [Huawei Announces Semiconductor Tao's Law] On May 25, Huawei officially announced a new law in the semiconductor field. "Tao's Law" proposes replacing "geometric scaling" with "temporal scaling," achieving new breakthroughs in transistor density and system performance through logic folding technology. This marks the first time China has proposed a new principle guiding industrial development in the global semiconductor field. By 2031, high-end chip transistor density based on this law is expected to reach the equivalent level of the 1.4nm process node. (People's Daily) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Result in Net Injection of 257 billion yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 258 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 1 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. On the US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.03. Kevin Hassett, chief economic adviser to US President Trump, said he believes that the eventual decline in oil prices will create room for the Fed to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once a deal is reached, energy prices will plunge," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have plenty of room to take the right action and lower interest rates." He emphasized that he respects the Fed's independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed Chairman last Friday. Although the surge in US fuel prices caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a growing political risk to Trump and his Republican Party in the November midterm elections, Hassett believes that the accelerating inflation is mainly driven by energy prices. "If you look at the last few data reports, energy prices are absolutely concerning, but core prices have barely moved at all," he said. "I think once we see energy prices pull back, due to declining energy prices, you may actually see negative inflation." (Jin10 Data) According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 2.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July was 84.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 14.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike was 0.3%. (Jin10 Data) On data: Today, data including China's year-to-date installed power generation capacity in April and its year-on-year rate will be released. In addition, attention should be paid to: 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature today. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, US stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday); CME's precious metals and US crude oil futures contract trading will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 26th, and US stock and US Treasury futures contract trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 26th. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, Hong Kong stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with both southbound and northbound trading suspended; South Korean stock markets will also be closed for one day on the same day. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed on Monday, May 25; trading of ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) Overseas exchange closure arrangements are as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 5.92% and Brent down 5.32%. Rising expectations of a US-Iran deal boosted global risk sentiment, putting oil prices under pressure. The direct catalyst for the oil price decline was signs of improvement in actual transit conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 33 vessels — including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels — passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours on Sunday after receiving authorization from the IRGC Navy. (Wallstreetcn) The Washington Post reported on May 24 that the US and Iran had reached agreement on a framework for a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which, once signed, would fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Citing an anonymous senior US government official, the report said the US and Iran had developed an MOU "framework" that includes a 60-day ceasefire extension to allow both sides to reach a "final agreement" on permanently ending hostilities with Iran, during which the Strait of Hormuz would be demined and reopened. The official said the MOU includes a "commitment" that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. Over the next two months, the US and Iran will discuss the "mechanism" for implementing this commitment. However, neither side signed any agreement on May 24. (Xinhua) Trump said on social media on Saturday that a US-Iran deal was largely done, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and told US representatives not to rush into a deal. But on Sunday he said the deal was "not fully done yet." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously said there could be "some good news" on the Hormuz issue in the coming hours. Iran remained cautious. Iran's Tasnim News Agency warned that the draft agreement could still collapse due to US obstacles on several key terms — including Iran's demand for unfreezing assets. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts, Zinc Prices Maintain Range-Bound Trading] Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick, with various moving averages below forming support. On the macro front, there are expectations of easing geopolitical conflicts, but inflationary pressure remains significant. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts keeps LME zinc in range-bound trading.