According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs China (GACC) imported 104.74 Mt of iron ore and concentrates in March 2026, representing a month-on-month increase of 7.38 Mt , or 7.6% . Cumulative imports for the first quarter reached 314.76 Mt, marking a 10.5 % Y-O-Y growth. Beyond underlying fundamental factors, geopolitical friction also contributed to the elevation of iron ore import volumes during March. Specifically, escalating tensions in the Middle East have severely disrupted commercial shipping lanes traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Although direct export volumes from the Middle Eastern region to China remain comparatively marginal, the destabilisation of global logistics networks precipitated by regional conflicts has forced vessels initially scheduled to transit through the Middle East or adjacent maritime corridors to reroute. Consequently, these diverted cargoes have been redirected towards East Asian markets, prominently including China. Furthermore, the progressive ramp-up of domestic blast furnace utilisation rates throughout March has augmented the steel sector's raw material requirements, thereby providing an additional stimulus for iron ore imports. Looking ahead to April, the direct impact of the Middle Eastern situation on China's aggregate iron ore import volumes is anticipated to remain relatively constrained. However, should the regional conflict fail to de-escalate substantively within the month, international dry bulk vessels may continue to bypass Middle Eastern ports for transshipment, inadvertently resulting in China passively absorbing additional cargoes from alternative origins. Additionally, as major overseas mining projects progressively advance, global iron ore supply remains generally accommodative. Dispatches, spearheaded by the Simandou project—which boasts an estimated annual output of 20 million tonnes—are projected to generate a moderate uplift in iron ore shipments directed towards China in April. From a cyclical perspective, the second quarter conventionally represents a traditional peak season for iron ore dispatches. Synthesising these multifaceted variables, we project that Chinese iron ore import volumes will exhibit a tangible upward trajectory throughout April.

War damage to Iran’s key steel mills threatens ~14 Mt of capacity, sharply reducing crude steel output and exportable supply. While domestic demand remains relatively stable, energy shortages and logistics disruptions amplify losses, tightening regional supply, supporting semi-finished steel prices, and reshaping trade flows.

[SMM Steel] India is drafting the National Steel Policy 2025, aiming to reduce steel sector emissions by about 25% and expand crude steel capacity to 400 million mt by 2035-36. The plan targets lowering emissions to 2 tons of CO₂ per ton of finished steel, while reducing coal dependence and supporting long-term production growth.

[SMM Steel] The initial rollout of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has already impacted Ukraine’s steel sector, with producers losing over 1.1 million mt of export orders in Q1 2026. Companies including Metinvest, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, and Interpipe reported order cancellations, higher compliance costs, and operational challenges. Additional CBAM-related costs and technical barriers are tightening access to the EU market, raising concerns over export competitiveness.

[SMM Steel] According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), U.S. domestic raw steel production for the week ending March 28, 2026, reached 1.803 million net tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.9%. This marks a 1.2% increase from the previous week (1.781 million net tons) and a significant 5.9% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Adjusted year-to-date production through March 28 stands at 22.197 million net tons, up 5.0% year-on-year, reflecting a steady recovery in the U.S. steel sector.

New Delhi quietly renewed BIS certification waivers through September 2026, even as it talks tough on Chinese overcapacity. The contradiction reveals more about India's industrial gaps than its trade policy convictions