[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] In terms of supply, coking costs were generally stable with a slight increase, and coke enterprises had good shipments, with their own coke inventory falling to low levels, leaving no sales pressure. Demand side, end-use demand for finished steel products had weakening expectations, and hot metal output was expected to see a slight correction this week, weakening rigid demand for coke. Steel mills showed strong resistance to the third round of coke price increases. However, ferrous metals futures rose broadly today, and after consumption during the Labour Day holiday, some steel mills saw their coke inventory decline, making it possible for those mills to accept the third round of coke price increases. In summary, coke and steel enterprises may continue to negotiate, and the coke market is expected to remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

Cost Support & Fundamental Improvement: Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Continued to Strengthen in April As of April 30, the most-traded hot-rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,425 points, up 131 points MoM from March 31. In April, SMM's national average spot price for hot-rolled coil was 3,321.78 yuan/mt, up 54.91 yuan/mt MoM (1.68%). HRC prices continued to rise in April, mainly due to relatively stable cost support. Additionally, since the start of April, on one hand, semi-finished products export orders were robust, with some steel mills prioritizing delivery of semi-finished product orders, thereby easing supply pressure in the HRC market; on the other hand, amid the peak season, HRC demand release was strong, driving rapid HRC inventory drawdown and significantly easing supply-demand imbalances. Before mid-May, HRC prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs; in late May, attention turns to export support and the extent of demand pullback Fundamentals, few new maintenance shutdowns have been announced so far, and May HRC production is expected to rebound MoM. However, considering that some steel mills are still actively delivering earlier semi-finished product and HRC export orders, the supply rebound pressure is expected to be manageable. Demand side, the average apparent demand for HRC tracked by SMM in April was 3.3961 million mt, up 7.52% MoM and down 2.19% YoY. Since the start of April, HRC demand climbed rapidly, mainly driven by a simultaneous rebound in export orders and domestic downstream demand in China. For May, historically apparent demand for the five major steel products tends to peak and pull back around Labour Day holiday. Combined with weakening domestic trade demand in some downstream industries, further upside room for May HRC demand is expected to be limited, with overall demand likely edging down slightly MoM from April, and apparent demand levels falling below the same period last year. In the short term, downstream restocking demand expectations remain after the Labour Day holiday, coupled with expectations of a third round of coke price increases, and HRC prices are expected to fluctuate at highs for 1–2 weeks after the holiday. From mid-to-late May, steel demand faces challenges as the traditional peak season winds down, and the steel supply-demand imbalance may widen MoM, limiting further upside room for steel prices. Other aspects, attention should be paid to export order support and the extent of domestic demand pullback.

Metinvest Group’s Kametstal steelworks has launched a comprehensive overhaul of its Blast Furnace No. 9, with a total investment estimated at 162 million UAH. The project is scheduled to last 55 days and involves replacing the furnace lining, cooling systems, and upgrading environmental control equipment. While the maintenance will temporarily reduce Kametstal's pig iron production capacity, the upgrade is expected to enhance long-term operational efficiency and reliability. This planned shutdown may slightly tighten the regional supply of semi-finished steel products in the Ukrainian market during the second quarter.

[SMM Steel] Iran has halted exports of flat steel products, including plates and HRC, until May 30, following severe damage to its steel industry from ongoing conflict. Around 10 mln mt of annual capacity (25–30%) has been disrupted, impacting major producers such as Mobarakeh Steel Company and Khuzestan Steel Company. The supply shock is expected to tighten global availability, particularly for semis and flat products, while domestic industries face rising input costs. Although imports may partially stabilize Iran’s market in the short term, full production recovery could take 6–12 months or longer, with broader economic and trade impacts anticipated.

[SMM Steel] European Union announced new steel import regulations effective July 1, 2026, replacing existing safeguards. Total tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) are set at 18.35 mln mt annually, with duty-free access within quotas and a sharply higher 50% tariff applied beyond quotas (vs. 25% previously). The system will be managed quarterly, with carry-over flexibility in the first year. Key allocations include HRC (~5.2 mln mt) and coated steel products. The measure applies broadly to third countries to curb import surges and protect domestic producers, while also signaling a gradual phase-out of Russian steel imports by 2028.

In March 2026, the global steel market experienced a fierce geopolitical "sudden chill." According to the latest data from WSA, global crude steel production in March fell by 4.2% year-on-year to 159.9 million tons. The US-Iran conflict that erupted on Feb 28, and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have completely disrupted the spring recovery rhythm of the global steel supply chain, with the shadow of energy crises and logistical interruptions rapidly spreading worldwide.