This week, ferrous metals fell continuously. During the week, there were many disturbances from unverified market rumors, but overall macro sentiment was weak, and expectations of rate hikes outside China continued to weigh on commodity sentiment. Earlier, rumors of a strike at BHP caused a slight rebound in iron ore; in the latter half of the week, Tangshan issued a notice on the "Tangshan Industrial Source Emission Reduction Plan for H2 2026," and combined with post-holiday inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, market sentiment was weak, and ferrous metals fell again. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics for end-users became more evident, market demand continued to weaken. While spot prices remained relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and positions in both futures and spot markets were unwound. Transactions were concluded at prices below market levels, further dragging down market prices......

[Demand Support Next Week's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices Generally Stable with Slight Rise] This week, cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel spot prices remained stable, with smooth and orderly market trading. After the steel mills' earlier price hike policy took effect, the market entered a digestion period. Mainstream quotations held steady, with no significant price change. Supply side, steel mills maintained a stable production pace, mainstream resources were released normally, supply was ample and orderly, social inventory stayed within a reasonable range, with no pressure of large inventory buildup or rapid destocking, and supply and demand maintained a weak balance. Demand side, transformer and power equipment enterprises made just-in-time procurement as a normal practice, end-users replenished stock in batches as needed, with no concentrated stockpiling. Transactions were dominated by just-in-time orders, demand provided solid support, and there was no price-cutting to boost volume.

[Cost Support Weakens Further Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Faces Price Cut Expectations Next Week] This week, cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel spot prices in the Shanghai market operated in the doldrums, and overall market transactions were sluggish. Market feedback indicated that this week, the futures market continued to weaken, dragging down market sentiment, and the supply pressure of non-oriented silicon steel remained significant. Traders showed a strong willingness to sell, but downstream motor enterprises mainly purchased as needed and lacked willingness to restock.

HRC prices continued to decline this week, resulting in sluggish transactions. In terms of supply, rolling line maintenance increased this week, leading to a slight decrease in overall HRC production. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC deteriorated significantly this week, as plum rain and high temperatures suppressed cargo pick-up. Downstream manufacturing entered the off-season, with cautious procurement. Coupled with falling steel prices, this exacerbated the market's wait-and-see sentiment. In terms of inventory, SMM's nationwide social inventory of HRC across 86 warehouses (large sample) stood at 4.2912 million mt this week, up 64,500 mt WoW, up 1.53% WoW. By region, the inventory buildup in Northeast, Central, and North China was greater than in East China, while South China saw slight destocking. Cost side, the average ore price edged lower, while the eighth round of coke price increases took effect, providing slightly stronger cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, costs may continue to rise, but the weak reality of finished steel products is gradually emerging. The supply-demand imbalance is widening, leaving room for further HRC price declines. Overall, the most-traded HRC futures contract is expected to trade in the 3,260-3,360 range next week.

[SMM Analysis] Finished Product Prices Fall in Tandem, Stainless Steel Mill Profits Slightly Compressed This week, stainless steel prices and production costs declined in tandem, with steel mill profit margins narrowing slightly. Using 304 cold-rolling as the assessment basis, the profit margin calculated with current raw material costs stood at 2.28%, while that based on inventory raw materials was 2.1%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a downward pullback this week. Affected by weakening SHFE nickel and SS futures, coupled with disturbances from Indonesian nickel ore news, although NPI producers and traders maintained a strong willingness to hold prices firm, expectations of off-season maintenance and production cuts at stainless steel mills and the pullback in stainless steel prices led to low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, driving high-grade NPI prices to decline and pull back. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a mainstream grade of 10%-12% fell by 8.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,141 yuan per nickel unit. In the stainless steel scrap market, prices fell in tandem this week. SS futures pulled back and stainless steel finished product prices declined, dragging down stainless steel scrap. Currently in the traditional consumption off-season, end-use demand is weak, and expectations of lower steel scrap demand due to mill production cuts and maintenance, along with bearish macro sentiment, led to more cautious purchasing attitudes. Although stainless steel scrap holds an economic advantage over NPI and finds some bottom support, it is struggling to withstand the combined weight of multiple bearish factors, and the short-term market remains under pressure. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai fell by 50 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,500 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. This week, TISCO and Tsingshan successively...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Finished Products Decline Drives Down Stainless Steel Scrap Prices; Cost Advantages Fail to Offset Off-Season Pessimism This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China pulled back, with a quotation range of 10,450-10,550 yuan/mt; the same specification stainless steel scrap prices in Foshan also pulled back, with a price range of 10,350-10,650 yuan/mt. Analyzing production costs from the raw material side, the cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap is currently about 14,640.79 yuan/mt, while the cost using high-grade NPI reaches 15,072.29 yuan/mt, with the two still maintaining a favorable cost spread. This week, stainless steel scrap prices pulled back. During the week, SS stainless steel futures and SHFE nickel futures both pulled back, with bearish sentiment in the futures continuing to ferment. The bearish trend spread to the spot market, dragging down spot prices of stainless steel finished products. At the same time, the alternative raw material high-grade NPI prices also weakened, forming a linkage of declines across futures, finished products, and alternative raw materials, which directly dragged down stainless steel scrap prices this week. Overall, cost support is difficult to offset multiple bearish pressures. The market is currently in the traditional stainless steel consumption off-season, with end-use demand itself weak. Coupled with macro uncertainties such as warming expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, overall market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, and downward pressure on raw material prices continues to increase. Meanwhile, recent news of stainless steel mill production cuts and maintenance has emerged frequently, further lowering market expectations for stainless steel scrap demand. Although stainless steel scrap still maintains good economic advantages compared with high-grade NPI, providing some bottom support...