[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Review] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal quoted at 2,050 yuan/mt. Regarding coking coal, with strict safety supervision in Shanxi, coal mine production resumptions are slow, making it difficult for coking coal supply to improve. Steel mill profits are declining, wait-and-see sentiment in the market is growing, and coal mine shipments are average. However, the supply-demand fundamentals of coking coal remain unchanged, and miners are holding prices firm and holding back from selling. In the short term, the coking coal market may consolidate. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 2,090 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, after nine rounds of price increases, coke producers have seen some recovery in profits, and their operating rates remain relatively stable. On the demand side, blast furnace production at steel mills is currently at a relatively high load, but the steel market has entered the traditional off-season, end-user transactions are weakening, profit pressure is mounting, and steel mills are increasingly resistant to consecutive coke price hikes. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke market is beginning to ease, but cost support remains. In the short term, the coke market is likely to be generally stable with a slight rise. [SMM Steel]

Shandong mines and beneficiation plants' tax-inclusive, dry basis offer for 64% Fe alkaline fines is 817, up 3. Steel mills raised accordingly. Miners are mostly operating normally; some have inventory accumulation, but most face little inventory pressure. Sales from small plants and traders are average. Recently, steel mills have mainly been purchasing as needed. Domestic iron ore's cost-effectiveness is relatively weak, and overall the desire to push for lower prices is relatively strong. In the short term, local iron ore concentrate transactions are average. Recently, imported iron ore supply has been relatively ample, coupled with the weak trend in iron ore futures. Affected by this, it is estimated that local iron ore concentrate prices may show weak consolidation in the short term. [SMM Steel]

Today, DCE iron ore futures trended firm, pulling back slightly in the afternoon. The I2609 contract closed at 738 yuan/mt, up 0.14% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose 2–3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were active in quoting, steel mills purchased as needed, buying interest was moderate, and as of now, spot transaction volumes were relatively low. Looking ahead, with the downstream entering the off-season and mine shipment pace slowing down, the iron ore supply side is expected to tighten slightly, but the overall ample supply pattern is unlikely to change. Last week, SMM global iron ore shipments totaled 35.16 million mt, up 1.53% WoW, and cumulatively up 1.77% YoY. Among them, Australia's shipments edged down 6% WoW, but Brazil's shipments surged nearly 20% WoW, while shipments from non-mainstream countries edged up MoM. Among the four major miners, Rio Tinto and FMG saw shipment declines. In addition, last week, SMM China iron ore arrivals totaled 28.78 million mt, down 1.88% WoW, and cumulatively up 6.07% YoY. Based on comprehensive analysis, iron ore prices are likely to fluctuate within a range in the near term, but the bearish pattern will persist in the long term. [SMM Steel]

July planned rebar production was 7.428 million mt, down 389,700 mt or 4.98% from actual June production; July daily rebar output was 239,600 mt, down 8.05% MoM. July planned wire rod production was 3.197 million mt, up 18,700 mt or 0.59% from actual June production; however, July daily wire rod output was 103,100 mt, down 2.66% MoM. July long-product export schedule for the sample steel mills was 653,000 mt, a MoM decrease of 41,000 mt, of which billet export schedule was 350,000 mt, a MoM decrease of 30,000 mt.

In July, the planned rebar production was 7.428 million mt, down 389,700 mt from June's actual production, a decrease of 4.98%. Average daily output of rebar in July stood at 239,600 mt, down 8.05% MoM. In July, the planned wire rod production was 3.197 million mt, up 18,700 mt from June's actual production, an increase of 0.59%. However, the average daily output of wire rod in July was 103,100 mt, down 2.66% MoM. In July, the sample steel mills' long product export schedule reached 653,000 mt, down 41,000 mt MoM. Among this, the steel billet export schedule was 350,000 mt, down 30,000 mt MoM.

[Vietnam] ASEAN hot-rolled coil (HRC) import offers ticked down to 535 USD/tonne CFR this week amid limited demand. As Vietnamese domestic steel mills aggressively slashed their ex-works prices, local buyers heavily prioritized higher-value domestic resources over imports, leaving the import market slow. Last week, major domestic producers Hoa Phat and Formosa Ha Tinh both cut their HRC prices by 33-34 USD/tonne, bringing Hoa Phat’s target prices for large buyers down to 535-537 USD/tonne CIF and Formosa Ha Tinh’s September shipment offers to 546-556 USD/tonne. This compression forced import prices lower; Indian HRC deals were concluded at 535-540 USD/tonne CFR, while Indonesian HRC was quoted at 525-535 USD/tonne CFR, both failing to attract transactions. In the slab segment, Asian prices also weakened, with an Indonesian mill cutting August shipment offers to 490-495 USD/tonne FOB and a Vietnamese mill quoting 490 USD/tonne FOB, while Chinese-origin slabs stood around 465 USD/tonne FOB. Meanwhile, tightened EU finished steel quotas are expected to prompt European seaborne buyers to look to Asia for semi-finished steel alternatives.