On June 9, customs data showed that China exported 10.341 million mt of steel in May 2026, an increase of 844,000 mt MoM, up 8.9% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May reached 44.554 million mt, down 8.1% YoY. China imported 451,000 mt of steel in May 2026, a decrease of 14,000 mt MoM, down 3.1% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May totaled 2.255 million mt, declining 12.2% YoY. Table1 – Steel Import and Export Data Overview, January-May Source: SMM Steel Exports in May Crossed 10 Million mt MoM According to SMM's export schedule survey for May, planned HRC exports that month stood at 1.1435 million mt, up 213,500 mt from actual April exports, a 23% MoM increase. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that from March to April, domestic export prices held a strong advantage in international markets, and overseas demand for semi-finished products remained present. Export orders reached a periodical high in mid-April, providing some support for May exports exceeding 10 million mt. Table 2– China Total Steel Exports Source: SMM Steel Imports in May Declined MoM On the import side, steel imports stood at 451,000 mt in May, edging down MoM. From January to May, China imported a total of 2.255 million mt of steel, down 12.2% YoY; net steel exports reached 42.299 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing diverges notably; US accelerates sharply while domestic new export orders slide from highs Global manufacturing activity showed marked divergence in May 2026. The latest PMI data indicates the US accelerated strongly, rising to 54% from 52.7% in April, though cost surges driven by inflation posed significant headwinds. The Eurozone PMI dropped to 47.5% from 48.8%. India continued to demonstrate resilience: its May manufacturing PMI reached 55%, a three-month high, fueled by robust domestic demand, infrastructure spending, and new business growth. China's new export orders index came in at 48.6% in May, down 1.7 percentage points MoM, reflecting some weakening in export demand. 2. Overseas supply continues to decline, particularly evident in the Middle East World Steel Association data shows global crude steel production fell 1.9% YoY to 153.4 million mt in April 2026. Excluding China, output in the rest of the world slid 4.25% MoM, with production schedule paces diverging significantly across regions. Among markets outside China, India and Vietnam maintained high production levels, mainly benefiting from the structural ramp-up dividends brought by new capacity commissioning. Meanwhile, the US and Germany also stood out in April: the US was directly boosted by seasonal Q2 production schedule expansions in high-end manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, while Germany's four consecutive months of production rebound essentially reflected a strategic inventory build by steel mills in response to raw material price fluctuations. In contrast, Middle East production continued its steep YoY plunge during the month, mainly attributable to wartime energy controls and systemic logistical paralysis triggered by the US-Iran conflict and the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, Middle East output remains in contraction. As original recipient countries face a lack of stable supply sources, coupled with the digestion of previous low-priced resources, China's steel export orders may encounter structural opportunities. Figure 1 – Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage remains notable, but Southeast Asian markets show price-cutting behavior to seize market share As of June 5, 2026, HRC export quotations (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $550/mt, $645/mt, and $535/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) was $501/mt. China's HRC export quotations currently stand at discounts of -$49/mt, -$144/mt, and -$34/mt against these countries, keeping its steel export price advantage distinct. Recently, however, Southeast Asia entered its off-season; with domestic demand unable to support elevated prices, there are signs of price reductions to capture orders from the international market and disperse domestic pressures. The price spread between China and Southeast Asia has narrowed somewhat. Figure 2 – HRC Quotations in Key Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders dropped notably in May, with a related slowdown after concentrated procurement According to SMM's latest survey of steel mill export schedules, planned HRC exports this month stand at 1.03 million mt, roughly steady compared with actual exports last month. SMM steel export order data indicates that, affected by holidays, export orders in May declined noticeably from April on a MoM basis. Orders for both flat products and long products slipped, signaling that overseas buyers have slowed their procurement pace after the earlier round of concentrated procurement. Figure 3 – SMM Steel Export Order Volumes Source: SMM 5. HRC faced the most cases entering the enforcement stage in May After the concentrated final rulings of anti-dumping cases in April, anti-dumping cases decreased somewhat in May, involving products including HRC, coiled rebar, section steel, and steel pipes. Specific cases and their affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table – New Anti-Dumping Cases in May Source: SMM Taking all factors into consideration, as the new export orders index narrows somewhat, Southeast Asian markets cut prices to compete for orders, and the significant contraction in export order volumes over the previous two months gradually feeds through to the shipment stage, the cushioning effect from earlier orders will weaken considerably. SMM expects that actual total steel exports in June will face some downward pressure. At the same time, as overseas supply of previously low-priced materials is absorbed and Chinese prices remain competitive, domestic export orders may show a bottoming-out recovery trend. Recent feedback from the Southeast Asian market also indicates new procurement demand for semi-finished products. Figure 4 – Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Disclaimer on Data Sources: Except for publicly available information, all other data herein are processed and derived by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. The content is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work published on this official account. For requests regarding reproduction, whitelist access, cooperation, or other matters, please contact us. Without permission, the content shall not be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to third parties or licensed for third-party use. 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[SMM Data: Complete Summary of SMM March 2026 Import and Export Data] SMM March 2026 import and export data showed: copper cathode net imports were down YoY; primary aluminum imports reached 255,000 mt, up 14.8% YoY; refined lead imports climbed sharply; zinc ingot imports were up 220% MoM; tin ore imports were up 122% YoY; silver imports were up 93% MoM; steel exports rebounded MoM; PV module export value was up 122.7% MoM; silicon metal exports were up 43% MoM, and magnesium exports hit a multi-year high. Among new energy materials, exports of LiPF6 and artificial graphite surged significantly.

[SMM Analysis] Persian Gulf Shutdown? The Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on Global Steel Trade On February 28, 2026, the conflict between the United States and Iran escalated into a full-scale outbreak, causing a sudden spike in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. As a global chokepoint for energy and bulk commodity maritime transport, the Strait of Hormuz has seen shipping disrupted and routes tightened, directly impacting the nerves of the global supply chain. This "Golden Waterway" is not only a lifeline for oil but also a critical strategic corridor for the global steel import and export trade . Once passage is restricted, it will deliver a comprehensive shock to the international steel trade landscape. Amidst the turmoil of war, what disruptions and restructuring will the global steel trade face? SMM's latest research provides an in-depth analysis. In the short term, the U.S.-Iran conflict poses a risk of stalling steel imports and exports in the Persian Gulf region, putting pressure on China's steel exports. Multiple disruptions along Gulf shipping routes have caused significant delays in exporters' orders. According to SMM research, the current Middle East situation has disrupted multiple ports in the Gulf region. Bahrain has suspended port activities, including pilotage services. Jebel Ali Port has halted all operations due to a fire caused by intercepting airstrike debris. Qatar's Ras Laffan and Messaid ports remain operational but with reduced traffic, GPS signal interference, and the government closure of its airspace. Similarly, new orders and shipments for Chinese exporters have also been significantly hindered. Data Source:SMM Impact Assessment of Core Ports within the Strait of Hormuz Should a physical blockade occur at this strategic chokepoint, the five most directly affected key inner-bay ports experiencing “instant logistics paralysis” would be: Port of Bandar Abbas, Port of Khomeini, Port of Jebel Ali, Port of Khalifa, and King Abdullah Port. Simultaneously, a Strait blockade would threaten to disrupt approximately 10% of global seaborne steel trade (primarily semi-finished products and specialty ores) . Iran's production of direct reduced iron (DRI) also holds significant weight in global supply; any disruption could drive up costs for electric arc furnace steelmaking in the Middle East. Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping After the blockade, will goods become completely impossible to transport? While maritime routes will indeed come to a near standstill, the flow of goods won't cease entirely. It will simply become extremely costly, slow, and require complex overland transshipment. For instance, strategic alternative ports outside the strait include Sohar Port, Chabahar Port, and Gwadar Port. Data Source: Compiled by SMM based on publicly available information Trade Chokehold Triggered by Insurance Withdrawals Equally severe as the strait blockade is the withdrawal of war risk insurance. Marine insurers Skuld and Gard have announced they will cancel war risk coverage due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Local feedback from the UAE indicates most insurers refuse to underwrite war risk insurance for the Red Sea. This means traders must bear multiple uncontrollable factors and assume all consequences, which will significantly impact new orders. Summary: The Hormuz Crisis's “Hedging Effect” on China's Steel Market Leads to Short-Term Export Pressure Short-Term Negative Impact (Suppression of Demand and Logistics): The sudden halt in Gulf shipping routes will cause China's total exports to Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to plummet dramatically. Export disruptions may even force resources to flow back into the domestic market, intensifying supply pressure and exerting downward pressure on steel prices. Data Source: SMM, GACC Mid-term outlook: As a major steel supplier, Iran's halted exports will trigger tightening supply of steel billets in Southeast and South Asia. From Construction to Industry: Iran's Steel Export Structure Transformation and the Peak Era Dominated by “Billet” According to data released by the Iranian Steel Producers Association (ISPA), 2025 marked the “peak era” for Iran's steel exports, with its export structure exhibiting an extremely aggressive trend: ① Absolute Dominance of Semi-Finished Products: From March to December 2025, Iran's billet exports reached 4.58 million tons (+37.7% YoY), while slab exports hit 1.54 million tons (+44.6% YoY). This confirms the earlier observation that the current strait blockade will trigger significant “slab panic” among downstream steel mills in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. ② Structural Leap in Flat Products: Finished flat product exports surged from 307,000 tons in the same period last year to 1.03 million tons. Notably, the significant increase in hot-rolled coil (867,000 tons) and coated steel (up 76.7% YoY) indicates Iran's gradual transition from a “construction steel supplier” to an “industrial raw material supplier.” ③ Weakness and contraction in long products: In contrast, exports of finished long products (rebar, wire rod) declined by 9.9%, while structural steel exports plummeted by 27.7%. This trend of “reducing long products while increasing flat products” has, against the backdrop of stalled infrastructure projects, actually heightened the risk of inventory buildup for finished goods. Data Source: ISPA Mid-term positive factors: Cost and substitution support Iran's steel export shortfall of nearly 11 million tons will trigger regional supply tightness, forcing some Southeast Asian and South Asian buyers to shift procurement to China, creating “substitution-driven incremental demand.” Simultaneously, rising crude oil prices may push up costs across the entire industrial chain, providing bottom-up support for steel prices. Although logistics disruptions and project suspensions will suppress export performance in the short term, the reshuffling of the global supply landscape is expected to partially offset the negative impact. Chinese steel may play a key role in filling the global gap. Long-term outlook: Iran's ceasefire may temporarily impact the global steel market Hoarding effect under blockade: Iran's sharply rising mill and port inventory pressures According to the latest global steel statistics report released by the World Steel Association (WSA), Iran's cumulative crude steel production reached 31.8 million tons in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.4% compared to 2024 and solidifying its position as the world's tenth-largest steel producer. In December 2025, Iran's monthly crude steel output hit 3 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 16.2%. This indicates that Iranian steel mills were operating at peak capacity just before the conflict erupted. In January 2026, its crude steel output reached approximately 2.6 million tons, marking a 15.1% year-on-year increase. Against the backdrop of a 6.5% year-on-year decline in global crude steel production during January, Iran demonstrated an “independent trend.” According to SMM research, the high production levels from earlier periods have led to severe inventory backlogs at domestic steel mills. The logistics blockade that began in late February prevented the full shipment of steel produced during this high-output phase out of the Persian Gulf. Consequently, ports and mill warehouses are now stockpiling large quantities of slabs and billets originally intended for export. Once the situation eases, this “low-priced inventory” could flood the market at dumping prices. However, considering Iran's post-ceasefire reconstruction needs and the actual release of these supplies, SMM will continue to monitor developments closely. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Steel Import and Export Special Topic] Outward Leap Under Domestic Demand Restructuring: A Panoramic Analysis of the Deep-Seated Logic Behind China's Steel Export Surge in 2025(Prat2) Capacity Spillover Along the Silk Road Reshapes Export Landscape Among the top 10 countries by total steel exports from China in 2025, although exports to Vietnam declined, the volume still firmly held the top spot among export destinations. The reason for the decline is a familiar one—anti-dumping measures imposed by Vietnam on Chinese HRC in 2025. Notably, according to an SMM survey, Vietnam's anti-circumvention findings on wide steel coil from China are also expected to be finalized in February–March 2026, and the market currently views the likelihood of anti-circumvention implementation as high, with exporters already seeing a significant drop in orders. Therefore, it is reasonably predicted that subsequent HRC exports from China to Vietnam will decline sharply. However, considering Vietnam's domestic large-scale infrastructure projects, such as canals, hotels, and special economic zones, which still create rigid demand for construction rebar and wire rod, Vietnam is expected to remain one of China's major export destinations over the next 3–5 years. Similarly, other ASEAN countries such as the Philippines (7.28 million mt), Indonesia (7.11 million mt), and Thailand (6.9 million mt) are also in a phase of rapid urbanization. Due to the relatively high cost of steel production via electric furnaces in their local markets, these countries still rely on cost-effective ordinary steel from China. Particularly in the Philippines, where trade barriers are currently relatively low, it remains a major market for China's cold-rolled and galvanized steel exports in the short term, with total volume expected to have further upside potential. Data Source: General Administration of Customs、SMM Looking back at the countries with the highest YoY increments and growth rates in China's exports from 2024 to 2025, emerging bright spots in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, stand out. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's steel export value to Saudi Arabia surged by 41% YoY, the most significant growth rate among China's major export destination markets. This was driven by new city construction and energy transition projects under Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030," which spurred substantial consumption of steel pipes and long products for infrastructure. Meanwhile, Africa and Latin America have become new blue oceans. In addition to the local construction reasons mentioned earlier, "reverse diversion" due to trade frictions also played a role. For example, impacts from the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and high US tariffs have forced Chinese steel to withdraw from high-barrier markets like North America and flow into these regions with relatively lower trade resistance. Data Source: General Administration of Customs、SMM A background analysis of Djibouti and Senegal, which achieved high growth in both YoY growth rate and total volume, reveals that Djibouti serves as a "transit hub" for global trade and a gateway for infrastructure. Its growth primarily stems from its unique geographical location and strategic transformation as the "Gateway to East Africa." With recent changes in the Red Sea situation, Djibouti, as a critical node connecting Asia with Europe and Africa, has seen a surge in demand for port storage and transshipment facility construction. Senegal, on the other hand, is experiencing accelerated industrialization driven by energy discoveries. Its rapid growth is closely tied to large-scale oil and gas development and transportation infrastructure. 2024 was a pivotal year for Senegal to join the ranks of "oil and gas producers." Projects such as the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim gas field require large quantities of high-grade steel pipes, steel for drilling platforms, and storage facilities. Through this project, Senegal is moving towards a new stage of energy independence, consolidating its key role in the global energy transition. Data Source: General Administration of Customs、SMM Dual-track Progress of "Quality Improvement" in Finished Products and "Volume Expansion" in Semi-finished Products Data Source: General Administration of Customs、SMM The breakdown of China's steel exports in 2025 reveals a core characteristic: extreme polarization among product categories, reflecting the dual impact of the global manufacturing center's shift and trade protection barriers.① The total export volume of coated and galvanized sheets exceeded 31.09 million mt, making it the largest single category in China's steel exports and an undeniable "ballast stone" in the export product landscape. Coated and galvanized sheets (such as galvanized sheets, color-coated sheets, etc.) are widely used in home appliances, solar panel mounting brackets, and light steel structure infrastructure, and China has developed strong industry chain completeness and scale-related cost advantages in this field. Southeast Asian countries, represented by the Philippines, heavily rely on coated and galvanized coils for their demand for roof sheets and light steel keels during urbanization. Additionally, due to their geographical location and climate, local buildings require extensive use of color-coated sheets and galvanized sheets with strong corrosion resistance and good sealing properties for roofs and wall materials to withstand strong winds and rain erosion. Moreover, these materials wear out quickly, leading not only to new construction demand but also substantial maintenance and replacement needs for existing stock.② HRC exports pulled back from 29.88 million mt in 2024 to 24.44 million mt in 2025. The year 2025 also marked the most severe period for Chinese HRC facing trade barriers. As the "primary target" of global anti-dumping investigations, policy tightening in key destinations like Vietnam and Turkey forced exporters to voluntarily reduce volumes or engage in re-exporting. In 2025 alone, HRC faced up to six anti-dumping investigations, and major export destinations such as Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, and Brazil implemented relevant measures. Furthermore, the previous practice of exporting as alloy steel by "adding boron/chromium" was gradually blocked by multiple countries through "anti-circumvention investigations." SMM reasonably predicts that if HRC export volume is to be maintained in 2026, it will rely more on markets like Saudi Arabia, which have not initiated large-scale anti-dumping cases and have strong infrastructure demand, rather than the traditional ASEAN red ocean. ③ Steel pipes maintained steady growth, reaching 13.36 million mt, driven by oil and gas pipeline projects in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as water conveyance projects in North Africa, which provided stable long-term contract orders for China's seamless and welded pipes. Regarding steel billets, relevant introductions have been provided earlier, and in-depth analysis of their core drivers will continue in upcoming features. Stay tuned to SMM Steel Industry Research... Bonus at the end: The steel industry has its own ups and downs. SMM cordially invites you to participate in the "2026 Steel Export Varieties and Market Outlook Survey." Your feedback will serve as the core data source for our next in-depth report. Click the link below, and let’s work together to identify the most certain growth points in this "100-million-ton era"! https://v.wjx.cn/vm/wEwxM3V.aspx Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

Over the past five years, China's steel exports have undergone a qualitative transformation from "volatile recovery" to "structural surge." From 2021 to 2022, exports remained within the traditional range of 60-70 million mt. However, starting in 2023, the export growth curve steepened sharply. In 2025, the total broad exports, including steel billet, reached a new high of 134 million mt, with a YoY growth rate of 14%. The underlying driver of this explosive growth is the long-term mismatch between domestic supply and demand. As the real estate sector entered a period of deep adjustment, domestic apparent consumption continued to shrink. However, due to the inertia and economies of scale in steel production processes, China's crude steel production did not decline proportionally. This "supply-demand scissors gap" forced Chinese resources to flow overseas, seeking markets with higher prices, greater profits, and more robust demand.

China's total steel exports in December increased by 13.24% MoM and 16.18% YoY. The reasons for such a significant increase were twofold. On one hand, following the announcement No. 79 dated December 9, 2025, by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs, which decided to adjust the "Catalog of Goods Subject to Export License Management (2025)" and implement export license management for certain steel products effective January 1, 2026, concerns about subsequent export uncertainties, particularly regarding the practice of forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms, intensified. This prompted a large number of traders to rush shipments collectively, aiming to get goods out before the year-end, leading to another surge in total volume. Furthermore, according to subsequent SMM tracking, cargo congestion occurred at multiple ports due to the rush to meet shipping schedules, and this issue has not yet been fully resolved. On the other hand, the concerted effort by most steel mills to meet annual export targets by year-end also played a key role. According to SMM production schedule data, exports of sheets & plates and long products from steel mills in December continued to grow compared to November. Simultaneously, based on SMM export order data, export orders from November to December increased by 15% compared to those from October to November, perfectly aligning with the MoM rise in total overseas exports.