During this week, port departures of steel from China's main ports reached 3.0789 million mt, up 9% WoW.

Latin American steel exports to the US totaled about 504,000 tonnes in May, up 25.6% m-o-m, with export value at about $372m, per US Census Bureau data. Brazil accounted for the largest share with about 300,000 tonnes (vs 195,000 tonnes in April). Mexico's steel exports to the US totaled 168,000 tonnes, down 1.7% m-o-m.

Content of Anti-Dumping Investigation On June 22, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India issued a notice stating that, in response to an application filed by the Indian enterprise JSW JFE Electrical Steel Nashik Private Limited, it initiated an anti-dumping investigation on cold rolled grain-oriented electrical steel (CRGO) and amorphous metal (AM) originating in or imported from China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia. This case primarily involves products under India HS codes 72251100, 72261100, and 72269930, as well as some products under HS codes 72251920, 72251990, 72261920, 72269910, 72261990, 72269910, 72269920, and 72269990. The dumping investigation period for this case was from April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026 (12 months), and the injury investigation period covered April 1, 2022, to March 31, 2023; April 1, 2023, to March 31, 2024; April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025; and April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026. China's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Export Situation Source: General Administration of Customs Comparing grain-oriented silicon steel exports in the first five months, monthly exports in 2025 fluctuated more sharply, with a notable pullback in February and hitting a period high in April. In the first five months of 2026, monthly exports rose steadily month by month, showing a more stable trend. Total exports from January to May 2026 were similar to those in the same period of 2025, and outside China demand remained relatively stable. Data Source: General Administration of Customs of China Among the top ten destinations for China’s grain-oriented silicon steel exports in the first five months of 2025 and 2026, India retained its position as the largest export market for two consecutive years, with notably strong growth. Exports to India were approximately 54,400 mt in the first five months of 2025, rising to 67,600 mt in the same period of 2026, a significant increase. Turkey’s ranking moved up considerably, while Mexico’s ranking declined. Slovenia and Saudi Arabia newly entered the top ten, while Thailand and Spain dropped out of the list. Exports to traditional markets such as Italy, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, the UAE, and Vietnam generally pulled back YoY. Only India and Turkey achieved YoY increases, making India the sole major overseas demand center with substantial volume growth. China exports large quantities of grain-oriented silicon steel to India, while India’s domestic grain-oriented silicon steel producers struggle to compete, prompting India to initiate an anti-dumping investigation. Timeline Estimate for the Implementation of India’s Anti-Dumping Duties India’s anti-dumping investigations follow a clear timeline. A preliminary determination is issued 5 to 6 months after the case is initiated, and provisional duties are imposed. For complex cases like the current grain-oriented silicon steel investigation involving multiple countries, the final determination report may take up to 18 months. After the final determination recommendation is submitted to the Ministry of Finance, an additional 3-month approval period is required. The entire process, from initiation to the imposition of definitive duties, is expected to take approximately one and a half to two years. The definitive fixed duties, once imposed, remain valid for five years. Before expiry, domestic producers may request a sunset review, which also takes 12 to 18 months, during which the existing duties remain in effect. Relevant grain-oriented silicon steel export enterprises may negotiate price undertakings within a window of 3 to 8 months after case initiation, thereby avoiding both provisional and definitive duties. Potential Impact of India’s Anti-Dumping Investigation on China From Case Filing to Preliminary Ruling: When the case filing news emerged, Indian importers would proactively adopt a wait-and-see attitude, suspend new long-term contracts, and turn to supply from Japan and South Korea, causing a contraction in orders from China to India. Relevant Chinese enterprises would also bear high litigation costs and increase compliance expenses for various documents. Small and medium-sized producers without the ability to respond to the investigation would exit the Indian market directly, while top-tier players would incur significant costs in responding. After the preliminary ruling is issued in five to six months, provisional anti-dumping duties (for up to six months) would be directly imposed, significantly raising export costs and reducing shipments to India. Return cargo flows would pressure domestic spot prices of grain-oriented silicon steel, eroding steel mill profits. The willingness to conduct maintenance and control production would rise, sector sentiment would come under pressure, and the valuations of listed GO silicon steel enterprises would weaken. Downstream power equipment, such as transformers and reactors exported from China to India, would also face obstacles. Bidding costs for complete equipment sets would rise, leading to the loss of orders for power grids, PV inverters, and other Indian projects. Involution in China’s domestic demand market would intensify, with low-end transformer producers cutting prices to compete for orders, simultaneously squeezing profits. Medium to Long-Term (1-2 Years): After the final ruling in 18 months and approval by the finance ministry, a fixed hefty tariff for five years would be implemented, representing a medium- to long-term structural shock. China would be forced to adjust its GO silicon steel capacity structure, develop alternative overseas markets, advance overseas plant construction, comprehensively reduce dependence on the single Indian market, and focus on expanding incremental grid markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, diversifying the export structure. Top-tier steel mills would go global by establishing silicon steel slitting bases and joint-venture steel mills in Southeast Asia, while transformer enterprises would simultaneously build plants outside China to circumvent finished-product tariff barriers. International India Market In the short term, Indian importers are turning to sources from Japan, South Korea, and Russia, driving up procurement costs. Insufficient local capacity for low-grade silicon steel has caused raw material shortages for transformer manufacturers. Downstream power manufacturing associations are protesting the cost increases, infrastructure project quotations are rising, the power grid expansion pace is slowing, and high tariffs are raising costs across India's entire industry chain, weakening the competitiveness of its new energy and power grid infrastructure compared with Southeast Asia. In the long term, policies will continue to support local grain-oriented silicon steel projects such as JSW-JFE, with local capacity expanding significantly within five years and low-end silicon steel achieving self-supply. Global Trade Market Enterprises from Japan, South Korea, and Russia are seizing China's original share in the Indian market, forming supply substitution. China is shifting toward the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, creating differentiated competitive tracks. Transformer and silicon steel processing stages are relocating to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, forming a Southeast Asian power equipment manufacturing cluster. Third-country deep processing and origin-based tariff avoidance will become a long-term conventional trade pattern.

Anti-dumping Investigation Details On June 22, 2026, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued a notice announcing the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation concerning imports of Cold Rolled Grain Oriented Electrical Steel (CRGO) and Amorphous Metal (AM) originating in or imported from China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia, in response to an application filed by domestic producer JSW JFE Electrical Steel Nashik Private Limited. This case primarily covers products under HS codes 72251100, 72261100, and 72269930, as well as certain products under HS codes 72251920, 72251990, 72261920, 72269910, 72261990, 72269910, 72269920, and 72269990. The dumping investigation period runs from April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026 (12 months), and the injury investigation period covers April 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024, April 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025, and April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026. China’s Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Exports Source: General Administration of Customs Comparing January-May exports of grain-oriented silicon steel, monthly exports in the first five months of 2025 fluctuated more sharply, with a notable pullback in February and a peak for the period in April. In the first five months of 2026, monthly exports rose steadily month by month, showing a smoother trend; overall exports for January-May 2026 were similar to those of January-May 2025, and demand outside China remained relatively stable. Source: General Administration of Customs Among the top 10 destinations for grain-oriented silicon steel exports in the first five months of 2025 and 2026, India ranked as the largest market for the second consecutive year, with outstanding growth—exports to India were about 54,400 mt in the first five months of 2025, rising to 67,600 mt in the same period of 2026, a notable increase. Turkey moved significantly up the ranking, and Mexico dropped; Slovenia and Saudi Arabia entered the top 10, while Thailand and Spain fell out of the list. Exports to traditional markets—Italy, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, the UAE, and Vietnam—generally pulled back YoY, with only India and Turkey recording a YoY increase; India became the sole core overseas demand driver experiencing substantial volume expansion. China’s large-scale exports of grain-oriented silicon steel to India, combined with the inability of local Indian producers to compete effectively, prompted India to initiate the anti-dumping case. Estimated Timeline for Implementation of India’s Anti-Dumping Duties India’s anti-dumping investigation follows a defined timetable: a preliminary determination and provisional duties are expected within 5 to 6 months of initiation; for complex cases involving multiple countries, such as this one on grain-oriented silicon steel, the final determination can take up to 18 months. After the final recommendation is submitted to the Ministry of Finance, a further 3-month review is required, so the entire process leading to the formal imposition of duties is expected to take approximately one and a half to two years. The fixed tariffs determined by the final ruling are valid for 5 years. Before expiry, local enterprises may initiate a sunset review, with the review period also lasting 12-18 months, during which the original tariffs remain in effect. Relevant grain-oriented silicon steel export enterprises may negotiate price undertakings within a 3- to 8-month window after case initiation to avoid provisional and definitive duties. Possible impact of India's anti-dumping on China From case initiation to preliminary determination: Once the case is filed, Indian importers will proactively adopt a wait-and-see approach, suspend new long-term contracts, and turn to supply sources from Japan and South Korea, leading to a contraction in orders from China to India. In addition, relevant Chinese enterprises will incur high litigation costs and increase various document compliance expenditures; small and medium-sized mills without the capability to respond to lawsuits will directly exit the Indian market, while top-tier players will bear substantial additional costs in defending the case. When the preliminary ruling is announced after 5-6 months, a provisional anti-dumping duty (for up to 6 months) will be directly imposed, significantly raising export costs, reducing shipments to India, and causing diverted goods to flow back and impact spot prices of grain-oriented silicon steel in China, hurting steel producers' profits. This will increase the willingness to conduct maintenance and control production, put sector sentiment under pressure, and weaken the valuations of listed grain-oriented silicon steel enterprises. Downstream power equipment, such as domestic transformers and reactors exported to India, will also face obstacles. Bidding costs for complete equipment will rise, and orders from India for power grids, PV inverters, etc., will be lost. Involution in the domestic market will intensify, as low-end transformer manufacturers cut prices to compete for orders, and profits will contract concurrently. 1-2 year long-term cycle: After the 18-month final determination and Ministry of Finance approval, a high fixed tariff for 5 years will be imposed, constituting a medium- and long-term structural shock. China will be forced to adjust its grain-oriented capacity structure, explore alternative overseas markets, promote building factories abroad, comprehensively reduce its dependence on the single Indian market, focus on developing incremental grid markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, and diversify its export structure. Top-tier steel producers will go global, setting up silicon steel slitting bases and joint-venture steel mills in Southeast Asia, while transformer enterprises will simultaneously build factories overseas to circumvent finished-product tariff barriers. Overseas aspects: Indian market In the short term, Indian importers will shift to supply sources from Japan, South Korea, and Russia, leading to higher procurement costs. With insufficient domestic capacity for low-grade silicon steel, transformer manufacturers will face raw material shortages. Downstream power manufacturing associations will protest against rising costs, infrastructure project bids will rise, and the pace of grid expansion will slow down. High tariffs will raise costs across India's entire industry chain, undermining the competitiveness of its new energy and grid infrastructure compared with Southeast Asia. In the long term, policies will continue to support domestic grain-oriented silicon steel projects such as JSW-JFE. Within 5 years, domestic capacity will expand significantly, and low-end silicon steel will achieve self-sufficiency. Global Trade Market Enterprises from Japan and South Korea and Russia are seizing China’s original share in India, creating a supply substitution, while China shifts to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America to form differentiated competition tracks. The processing of transformers and silicon steel is relocating to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, forming a Southeast Asian power equipment manufacturing cluster. Third-country deep processing and origin-based tariff circumvention will become a long-term conventional trade model. Data Source Statement: The other data in this report, beyond publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, NBS data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and reliance on SMM’s internal database models, have been comprehensively analyzed and reasonably inferred by the research team. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Shanghai Metals Market reserves the final right to interpret the terms of this statement and the right to adjust and modify its content based on actual circumstances.

The EU has replaced its safeguard regime with a stricter Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ) system, setting an annual tariff-free volume of 18.35 million metric tons (mt) across 26 categories, which EUROFER believes could restore up to 15 million mt of lost European steel production. However, UK producers warned of market access challenges, noting that over 70% of UK steel exports go to the EU. Although roughly two-thirds of UK exports will remain tariff-free for the next five years, the potential for 50% tariffs once quotas are exhausted highlights the growing friction and complex trade dynamics in post-Brexit supply chains.

Turkey's crude steel production grew by 6.8% year-on-year to 16.48 million metric tons (mt) in the first five months of 2026, driven largely by a 19.8% surge in slab production to 6.71 million mt. Despite the output growth, total steel exports fell by 2.9% to 6.13 million mt. Under the EU's new quota regime, Turkey received a specific quota of 2.86 million mt (15.6% of the total) and expects to export over 3.0 million mt to the bloc when including free trade agreement (FTA) volumes. With capacity utilization sitting at a low 63.9% out of its 61.9 million mt total capacity, the Turkish industry urgently needs domestic sourcing mandates and stricter import controls to maintain competitiveness against Far Eastern material.