[Turkey] Weighed down by weak fundamentals, the export price of Turkish rebar assessed by the Turkish Steel Exporters' Association (MESTEEL) recently pulled back to $580–590/mt FOB, while wire rod export prices also dipped to $595–605/mt FOB. As demand shows no sign of improvement, in order to secure enough forward export orders to sustain operations, steel mills are still willing to offer concessions and compete for orders during negotiations.

[SMM Analysis] China's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Export Competitiveness Continues to Strengthen, Import Substitution Progress Continues to Advance

Today, DCE iron ore futures weakened, with the most-traded I2609 contract closing at 735 yuan/mt, down 1.08% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell by 5-7 yuan/mt from the previous day. Trader offering activity was moderate, while steel mills showed a strong desire to push for lower prices; as of now, spot trading volume was low. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of the steel off-season, finished steel export demand continued to weaken, driving pig iron production to a turning point; iron ore demand is expected to shrink further going forward. Additionally, rumors of environmental protection-driven production restrictions combined with weakening downstream export data triggered market pessimism, leaving ore prices more likely to fall than rise. In the short term, iron ore prices may trend sideways amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, while medium and long-term expectations remain bearish. [SMM Steel]

HRC prices: Over the coming year, from 2026 to 2027, China has nearly 40 million mt of HRC capacity projects under planning and construction, with production expected to increase further in 2026. Demand side, China's macro policies are expected to remain accommodative, and the manufacturing sector is likely to continue introducing policies to stimulate consumption, with demand expectations staying resilient. However, affected by anti-dumping measures and export structure adjustments, the decline in HRC exports will weigh on the domestic high-supply pattern. Overall, HRC prices are expected to continue hovering at lows in 2026. But considering that overseas geopolitical conflicts are pushing up inflation expectations and transmitting to commodity prices, coupled with coal and coke prices hitting bottom in 2025 and entering a new recovery uptick cycle, against the backdrop of cost push, the average HRC price may rebound slightly compared to 2025. Looking ahead to the next five years, considering that the peak period of new production capacity has passed, with the accelerated promotion of industry mergers and reorganizations and the continuous optimization of the capacity structure, HRC supply growth is expected to gradually slow down and stabilize starting from 2027. SMM expects that around 2028, a policy package of supply-side production restrictions plus steel export scale tightening may re-emerge, and the improvement in the overcapacity contradiction may bring about a round of upside opportunities for HRC prices. However, unlike the intensity of the 2015 supply-side reforms that were coupled with real estate easing and shantytown renovation destocking policies, after the phased capacity removal ends, the overall downward trend in China's steel consumption will be hard to reverse, which will limit the upside room of this HRC price rally driven by supply-demand imbalance easing. Additionally, the supply-demand pattern of iron ore trending looser will also pull down costs, and HRC prices are expected to come under pressure again after a brief rise. Steel mill profits: Considering that China's surplus steel capacity is resolved through steel exports, this necessitates China's steel prices to stay relatively low to support price advantages and orders, which will also limit the upside room of China's steel prices, steel mill profits are expected to remain at low marginal levels in H2 2026. China Hot-Rolled Coil Annual Supply-Demand Balance （ The line chart represents China's HRC price, and the bar chart represents the HRC balance. ）

Japan plans to impose provisional anti-dumping duties from July on nickel-based cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from Chinese Taiwan, Chinese Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs stated on June 22 that overall export damage is limited: China Steel Corporation does not produce the investigated products; leading exporter Yusco secured the lowest rate of 3.86%, preserving its competitive position; and Walsin Lihwa primarily exports non-investigated products to Japan. Domestic mills note that Japan represents a minor share of Chinese Taiwan's total stainless steel exports. Government officials have pledged to maintain dialogue with Japanese counterparts and support local industries in adopting AI and low-carbon technologies.

During the current week, steel departures from China’s main ports totaled 1.7274 million mt, down 17% WoW.