JSW Steel expects production and sales to strengthen from Q2 FY27 as the expanded Blast Furnace-3 at Vijayanagar ramps up, while reaffirming an aggressive capacity expansion pipeline spanning Dolvi, Odisha, Utkal and Kadapa. Despite the planned BF-3 shutdown, the company reported record first-quarter steel sales of 6.25 million tonnes, supported by resilient domestic demand and a 46% year-on-year increase in exports.

Bhilai Steel Plant (BSP), the flagship unit of Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL), has signed an Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Management (EPCM) consultancy agreement with MECON Ltd to expand its crude steel production capacity by 3.44 million mt per annum (Mtpa). The expansion will increase BSP's annual crude steel production capacity from 7 million mt to 10.2 million mt by 2030-31, strengthening its position as one of India's largest integrated steel plants and supporting the country's rising steel demand driven by infrastructure and economic growth. Under the agreement, MECON will provide end-to-end consultancy services covering project planning, engineering, procurement management, construction management and overall project execution to ensure timely implementation. The EPCM contract was signed on July 11 by senior officials from BSP and MECON. According to the Ministry of Steel, the expansion is expected to enhance production capability, improve operational efficiency through the adoption of advanced technologies and support SAIL's long-term objective of increasing domestic steel production. The agreement follows "Samanvay-2026," a vendor collaboration meet organised by BSP in June, where more than 200 delegates representing over 100 technology providers, engineering firms, equipment manufacturers and project partners discussed the execution roadmap for the expansion. During the event, BSP said the project forms a key part of SAIL's plan to increase its overall annual crude steel capacity to 35 million mt by 2030, in line with the Indian government's target of achieving 300 million mt per annum of national steelmaking capacity by 2030-31.

In today's [SMM Analysis] India's Vraj Iron & Steel Ltd has approved the first phase of a 450 crore rupees ($52 million) greenfield integrated steel project in the eastern state of Chhattisgarh, adding 201,000 tonnes per year (tpy) each of sponge iron and mild steel billets. The company expects the first phase to be commissioned within 30 months of the groundbreaking ceremony.

In H1 2026, the HRC-rebar price spread was slightly higher than the same period of 2025. Since early 2026, the HRC-rebar spread of the most-traded contracts has fluctuated between 130-230 yuan, averaging 187 yuan, which is higher than the average of 128 yuan in the same period of 2025. Figure 1 – SHFE Most-Traded Contract HRC-Rebar Spread Movement This year, the HRC-rebar spread as a whole has been slightly higher than the same period last year. The main reason still lies in supply-demand fundamentals. In 2025-2026, the property sector continued to decline, and rebar supply and demand operated at low levels. Meanwhile, thanks to the resilience of China’s manufacturing demand and the active role of sheets & plates exports in diverting supply, the supply-demand imbalance for HRC was relatively lower than that for rebar against the backdrop of overall weak domestic steel demand. In H2 2026, Room for HRC-Rebar Spread to Widen Is Limited Looking ahead, starting from end-August, the off-season impact will gradually dissipate, and demand will gradually return to the peak season. At that time, demand from rebar-related property and infrastructure sectors and HRC-related manufacturing sectors is expected to improve. It is expected that in H2, both rebar and HRC prices may rebound slightly in tandem. However, considering that the overall steel supply-demand imbalance in China remains prominent, the room for the HRC-rebar spread to widen is relatively limited, and it may fluctuate between 180-230 yuan. Towards year-end, as temperatures drop in many regions, the pace of outdoor construction will continue to slow down, while certain manufacturing sectors still have expectations of a year-end demand push. At that time, the HRC-rebar spread may widen slightly, entering a range of fluctuation between 200-250 yuan.

In H1 2026, the HRC-rebar price spread was slightly higher than in the same period of 2025. From the start of 2026 to now, the most-traded HRC-rebar spread has fluctuated between 130-230 yuan, averaging 187 yuan, higher than the 128-yuan average in the same period of 2025. Figure 1: SHFE Most-Traded HRC-Rebar Spread Trend This year, the HRC-rebar spread has been slightly above the same period last year, with the main reason still lying in supply-demand fundamentals. From 2025 to 2026, the property sector continued to decline, keeping rebar supply and demand at low levels, while benefiting from resilient domestic manufacturing demand and active export diversion of sheets & plates, the supply-demand imbalance for HRC has been relatively less severe than for rebar against the backdrop of sluggish overall steel demand in China. In H2 2026, the room for the HRC-rebar spread to widen is limited. Going forward, starting from late August, the off-season impact will gradually fade, demand will return to peak season, and both rebar-related property & infrastructure sectors and HRC-related manufacturing sectors are expected to see improved demand. HRC and rebar prices are expected to rebound slightly in H2, but given the still prominent overall steel supply-demand imbalance in China, the room for the HRC-rebar spread to widen is relatively limited, with fluctuations likely in the 180-230 yuan range. Approaching year-end, as temperatures drop in many regions, the pace of outdoor construction continues to slow, while some manufacturing sectors still have expectations of a year-end demand sprint; the HRC-rebar spread may then widen slightly, entering a fluctuation range of 200-250 yuan.

The US decision to exempt Brazilian pig iron from the 25% import tariff removed concerns that Brazil could lose access to its largest export market. The exemption is expected to preserve established trade flows and reduce the likelihood of Brazilian cargoes being redirected to Europe. However, competition from Indian and Ukrainian suppliers, combined with seasonally weaker US steel demand, may continue to pressure the Brazilian pig iron market in the near term.