[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Costs and Prices Pull Back in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Remain Basically Stable This week, stainless steel prices and production costs fell together, and steel mill profit margins remained basically stable. Based on 304 cold-rolled as the benchmark, the profit margin calculated with current raw materials was 2.07%, while that using inventory raw materials was 1.33%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a pullback trend this week. During the week, SHFE nickel and SS futures were in the doldrums overall. Although there were widespread expectations of tight supply for high-grade NPI and upstream smelters and traders maintained firm offers, stainless steel mills' production schedule expectations pulled back, leading to weaker demand, and coupled with the simultaneous decline in stainless steel prices, the industry's acceptance of high-priced supply was very limited, and market transactions remained sluggish. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with mainstream grade of 10%-12% fell by 8 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,133 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. The weak futures market transmitted downward to spot cargo, and combined with sluggish off-season demand and reduced steel mill production schedules, rigid demand weakened further. Although steel scrap had an economic advantage over NPI, providing floor support for prices, uncertainty over Indonesian policies kept the market in a wait-and-see stance. Under the weight of bearish fundamentals, short-term stainless steel scrap prices are expected to continue to be in the doldrums. As of this Friday, the mainstream 304 off-cuts price in the Shanghai region fell by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,400 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. High-carbon ferrochrome production remained high...

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 22–26, 2026. Lingering Fed hawkishness and softening off-season fundamentals dragged the SHFE main contract down RMB 390/mt ($57/mt) this week, but firm producer pricing and a modest supply pullback kept the spot market relatively resilient.

[SMM Analysis] Weak Off-Season Demand and Firm Raw Materials Drive Up Stainless Steel Costs, Narrowing Profits This week, stainless steel production costs edged up slightly, while product prices remained stable overall, leading to a slight narrowing of steel mill profit margins. Using 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the current raw material-calculated profit margin was 2.16%, while the inventory raw material-calculated profit margin was 1.44%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, this week high-grade NPI prices edged up. Although the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with weak end-use demand, insufficient market confidence, and strong steel mill desires to bargain down prices, the limited production cuts for 300-series stainless steel in June meant a relatively small decline in demand for high-grade NPI. Combined with persistent disturbances from Indonesian news and a firm stance on holding prices from upstream players, these factors collectively drove high-grade NPI prices to hold up well. As of this Friday, the mainstream grade of 10%-12% high-grade NPI rose by 0.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,144 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, this week stainless steel scrap prices edged up. Driven by the linkage effect of firm spot finished steel and strong high-grade NPI, scrap prices also moved higher synchronously. However, under the suppression of multiple bearish factors such as weak demand in the traditional off-season, tight supply of tax invoices, and steel mill process limitations, its upside room was limited. Currently, bullish and bearish factors are counterbalancing each other, and it is expected that in the short term, stainless steel scrap prices will mainly remain stable. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cut prices in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,450 yuan/mt. Chrome-based raw material cost side, this week high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable. Although in the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, in June steel...

HRC futures closed at 3,377 today, down 0.44% for the day. Spot side, cold-rolled and hot-rolled spot prices fell 10-20 yuan/mt, with overall transactions being mediocre. Today SMM released partial weekly HRC balance data. This week, SMM's surveyed social inventory of HRC across 86 warehouses nationwide was 4.3519 million mt, down 114,500 mt WoW, or -2.56% WoW. By region, except for South China and Northeast China markets, other markets continued destocking. Demand side, this week's apparent demand was up 13,800 mt WoW, and demand had not yet shown a significant decline due to the off-season. From a fundamental perspective, supply-demand imbalance had not yet accumulated this week. Looking ahead, market rumors suggest coke still has expectations of further increases, which provides some support to the steel cost side. However, considering current signs of weakening market demand and weak market sentiment, prices are unlikely to rise significantly going forward, with short-term movements expected to be range-bound.

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Costs Edged Down with Prices Holding Steady, Steel Mill Profits Rebounded Slightly This week, stainless steel production costs edged down while prices remained generally stable, resulting in a slight expansion in steel mill profit margins. Using 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the current raw material-based profit margin was 2.33%, while the low-level inventory raw material-based profit margin reached 3.39%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices edged up this week. Although the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel was approaching, steel mills had limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials and adopted a cautious purchasing stance, with mediocre performance in transactions. However, supported by expectations of tight high-grade NPI supply, the market showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and prices remained firm overall. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 3 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,143.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. Although SS futures edged up, the spillover effect was weak and difficult to transmit to the spot market. With the consumption off-season approaching, downstream purchasing attitudes were cautious, and finished product prices lacked upward momentum. The high-grade NPI rally slowed down with weak transactions, providing insufficient support from the raw material side. Compounded by unresolved tax invoice tightness, fermentation of rumors about steel mill production cuts in June, and weakening demand expectations, multiple bearish factors dragged down prices. However, stainless steel scrap still held an economic advantage over NPI, with the cost price spread providing a floor and limiting the downside. In the short term, constrained by tax invoice issues and weakening off-season demand, prices are expected to remain relatively stable going forward. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai fell 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,350 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials...

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.