The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

[Limited Fundamental Support for Prices, GO Silicon Steel Prices May Be in the Doldrums Next Week] In terms of supply, China's steel mills maintained a steady production pace. Regular GO silicon steel resources remained in ample supply, while high-grade Hi-B resources saw no supply expansion due to technical barriers and production schedule constraints. The overall market continued to exhibit a divergent pattern of "low-end surplus and relatively balanced high-end." On the demand side, downstream transformer enterprises continued to see weak orders, with end-user operating rates remaining moderate. Procurement was primarily need-based restocking, and pre-Labour Day holiday restocking demand release fell short of expectations. End-user enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see stance, concerned about a post-holiday price pullback, maintaining a cautious procurement pace.

Based on SMM Research, stainless steel prices in Southeast Asia are expected to rise USD20–40/ton next week. Continued strength in nickel ore prices has driven up NPI production costs, underpinning overall stainless steel cost levels and fuelling upward price expectations.

This week, stainless steel production costs showed a strengthening upward trend, while spot prices rose even more significantly. The cost-price inversion at stainless steel mills was repaired, and profits gradually recovered. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 1.99%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a strengthening upward trend this week. Affected by the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP, the market expected nickel ore costs to rise. Combined with the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel and SS futures, bullish expectations in the high-grade NPI market were strong. After downstream stainless steel mill profits recovered, their acceptance of high-priced raw materials improved, driving high-grade NPI quotes to stop falling and rebound. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 10 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,090 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices rose sharply this week, driven by nickel ore cost increases and futures market linkage. The revision of nickel ore pricing pushed up cost expectations, and combined with the simultaneous rise in high-grade NPI, raw material linkage drove prices higher. Although the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap narrowed slightly, it remained attractive to steel enterprises, and market trading activity improved. Despite delayed payment issues dragging on trading pace, the market remained generally strong under futures-spot resonance and demand support, and was expected to consolidate at highs in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,350 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although stainless steel prices strengthened somewhat, procurement transactions in the high-carbon ferrochrome market remained sluggish recently. Earlier maintenance and production cut plans were insufficiently implemented, and current supply remained at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, recent declines in chrome ore and coke prices further weakened cost support, and rising nickel-based raw material costs also exerted some downward pressure on ferrochrome prices. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

On April 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.135 million mt of steel in March 2026, up 1.298 million mt MoM, a 16.6% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to March totaled 24.717 million mt, down 9.9% YoY. China imported 512,000 mt of steel in March 2026, up 143,000 mt MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY. China's Steel Exports Increased MoM in March Due to fewer days in February, combined with the Chinese New Year holiday and other factors, steel exports saw a seasonal rebound in March. Earlier SMM survey data on export order-taking also hinted at this trend — domestic sellers gradually resumed taking orders from mid-to-late January, with export order-taking maintaining a relatively high growth rate MoM. On the other hand, the global manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for two consecutive months, with Asia, Europe, and the Americas all rising MoM. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, China's cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY; net steel exports reached 23.378 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for 11 consecutive months, driven by some economies in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, while Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions persisted. China's new export orders index for the manufacturing sector was 49.1% in February, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, showing a relatively notable recovery MoM. Data monitored by the World Steel Association showed that global crude steel production in February 2026 fell 2.2% YoY to 141.8 million mt. Among them, the pullback in China's production was mainly due to physical shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday and post-holiday high inventory forcing steel mills to actively cut hot metal production. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world also declined significantly by 8.75% MoM, with notable divergence in production schedule paces across regions — the most prominent being the Middle East, where output dropped markedly due to geopolitical conflicts and tariffs. The contraction in ex-China production, particularly in the Middle East, created opportunities for China's exports, especially semi-finished products. Chart 1 - Iran's Export Data by Product Category As of April 13, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $505/mt, $625/mt, and $495/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $485/mt. Currently, China's HRC export price was +$20/mt, +$140/mt, and +$10/mt lower than those countries respectively. This shows that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed up ex-China steel costs far more than in China , further highlighting China's steel export price advantage. Chart 2 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export scheduling data, HRC export planned volume this month was 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from last month's actual exports, an increase of 8.5% MoM. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as production gradually resumed in and outside China, steel export order-taking in March increased 13.98% MoM from February. Due to the gap left by Iran's exports to Southeast Asia, the most notable increase was in semi-finished products, while the increase in finished products was relatively limited. Taking all factors into consideration, with order-taking and shipping gradually recovering, SMM expects steel exports in April to continue rebounding MoM. However, differences across product categories may emerge, which is expected to result in relatively limited incremental volume in the General Administration of Customs data released on the 8th, while the product-specific data released on the 20th may show relatively strong performance in semi-finished products. Chart 3 - SMM Steel Export Order Taking VolumeData Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. 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【SMM Steel】Taiwan's Yieh Phui announced significant April domestic/May export price hikes. Galvanized steel rose NT$1,700/t, pre-painted NT$2,000/t domestically; exports up $50/t. It's the 4th straight month of hikes. Energy, freight, and raw material costs are soaring amid Middle East tensions. Major global mills also raised prices. Galvanized steel prices in Taiwan have surged nearly 20% since late Feb. Low-cost inventory is depleting. Global economy is expanding.