[SMM Steel] SEAISI expects ASEAN steel demand to continue improving in 2026, with apparent steel consumption forecast to reach 87.9 million tonnes, up 2.6% YoY and 8.2% higher than 2024 levels. ASEAN steel imports remained high at around 50 million tonnes in 2025, while import penetration stayed above 60%, continuing to pressure local producers. Vietnam remained the region’s strongest growth market, with steel demand rising over 21% in 2024. SEAISI also warned that the Iran conflict could create energy-related risks for ASEAN steel markets, as the region remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies. Meanwhile, ASEAN steel exports are expected to remain elevated at around 22 million tonnes in 2025, supported by Indonesia’s expanding HRC capacity.

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【SMM Steel】Demand for finished steel in Sweden is shifting toward steady recovery after years of stagnation, driven by government-backed green transformation, energy/infrastructure investment, and improving macro conditions. Sweden uses a public-private partnership model covering 10-15% of green modernization costs. Industrial power prices in northern Sweden are €30-45/MWh vs EU industrial average ~€95/MWh. Total steel consumption is expected to rise 3% in 2026 to 3.4m tonnes. Flat products are expected to rise 2% supported by auto, defense, and wind power; long products are expected to rise 4.5% driven by construction and infrastructure. Imports account for 75-85% of domestic consumption, with strict low-carbon certification requirements.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Disturbances Dragged SS Futures Lower; Low Inventory Pressure and Rigid Demand Supported Stainless Steel Spot Prices SMM, May 15 — SS futures continued to be in the doldrums. Non-ferrous metal futures extended the previous day's decline, and SS also fluctuated downward in tandem. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,825 yuan/mt. Spot market side, dragged by the persistently weak SS futures, stainless steel spot prices pulled back in tandem. However, stainless steel social inventory has been on an overall downward trend recently, and traders faced relatively small shipment pressure. Market confidence remained stable, and price declines were relatively limited. The most-traded SS contract fell and pulled back. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,890 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 380-680 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell 100 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan fell 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area held steady; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted stable in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market was dragged by the weak and volatile futures, with notable downward pressure, but overall spot price declines remained limited, highlighting the divergence between futures and spot. Downstream end-users adopted a cautious wait-and-see stance due to macro uncertainties, with no concentrated restocking observed. However, rigid demand purchases remained solid, and the resilience of rigid demand provided a foundation for spot prices...

India's crude steel production rose by 6% year-on-year in April 2026 to reach 12.1 million metric tons (Mt). Domestic finished steel consumption outpaced production growth, increasing by 8% to 11.3 million mt, driven by strong infrastructure activity. During the month, finished steel output stood at 11.6 million mt (+5.5% YoY), while imports jumped 12% to 0.6 million mt and exports fell by 15% to 0.5 million mt. The data confirms India's status as a primary driver of global steel demand, with strong domestic absorption reducing export surpluses and making the country a net importer for the period, which may support global steel prices amid tightening regional supply.

Turkey's crude steel production grew by 5.3% year-on-year to 9.7 million metric tons (mt) in the first quarter of 2026, supported by a 6.4% output increase in March to 3.3 million mt. Meanwhile, domestic finished steel consumption surged 8.9% year-on-year to 9.9 million mt in Q1, but the foreign trade balance weakened as steel exports dropped 6.8% to 3.5 million mt while imports climbed 2.6% to 4.3 million mt, pushing the export-to-import ratio down to 77.7%. Although Middle East supply chain shifts and reduced Chinese export aggression opened market opportunities in Europe, producers face mounting operational pressures and narrowing profit margins due to scrap prices approaching $400/mt, surging freight rates, and stringent EU import regulations.