[SMM Steel] Asian steelmakers are stepping up CBAM compliance efforts as the EU published its first CBAM certificate price at €75.36/mtCO2e for Q1 2026 and tightened steel safeguard quotas. Mills are increasing emissions reporting, third-party verification, and carbon cost optimization to remain competitive in the EU market. India’s HRC quota under EU safeguard category 1A was exhausted within days after April 1. JSW Steel said its HRC emissions intensity is 1.8-2 tCO2/mt, well below India’s default CBAM value of 4.7 tCO2/mt. Market participants expect steel pricing to increasingly diverge based on verified emissions intensity and carbon compliance.

【SMM Steel】ArcelorMittal Spain's president expressed doubts about EU's new steel market safeguards. From July 2026, duties on over-quota steel will rise from 25% to 50%. Despite tighter protections, the company expects a less active year-end due to geopolitical uncertainty. In Spain, imported steel share rose from 22% in 2012 to over 50% last year, indicating systemic loss of competitiveness. EAF economics remain more complex than BF models. The new EU rules set annual duty-free quota at 18.3 million tonnes with 50% over-quota duties.

[SMM Steel] Iranian steel exports remain active despite ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. Billet exporters continue offering cargoes, but transactions remain unstable due to shipping disruptions, limited vessel availability, and high insurance costs. Alternative logistics channels and Chabahar port continue supporting part of the export flows to China and India. Market participants expect steel trade linked to Hormuz to remain volatile even if diplomatic tensions ease.

[Intensified Competition Due to Loose Supply, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel May Run Stable Next Week] According to market surveys, traders gradually resumed production after the holiday, but spot transactions were sluggish, with merchants mainly following up on orders left over from before the holiday. Meanwhile, arriving resources continued to replenish after the holiday, social inventory accumulated steadily, and spot supply was relatively sufficient. Currently, the downstream motor and home appliance industries are gradually entering the traditional demand off-season. Combined with supply fluctuating at highs, competition among various brands of silicon steel intensified, end-user purchase willingness remained weak, and spot prices encountered resistance obviously.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Surged and Spot Prices Remained Firm, Trading Sluggish as Labour Day Holiday Approached On April 29, SMM reported that SS futures fluctuated upward strongly. Driven by the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel, SS futures maintained a strong trend. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,505 yuan/mt. Spot market side, SS futures continued to fluctuate at highs, boosting stainless steel traders' confidence. Spot offers were generally at relatively high levels, with low-priced resources hard to find. Although the holiday was approaching and rapid price increases made downstream buyers cautious and wait-and-see, with most making just-in-time procurement, trading was slightly sluggish. However, supported by the strong performance of SS futures, spot prices were unlikely to pull back. The most-traded SS contract strengthened and tested higher levels. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,475 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from -5 to 195 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan rose 125 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi offers rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Currently, the stainless steel market was driven higher by the surge in SS futures, with spot offers strengthening in tandem and rising to highs not seen since 2023. However, the short-term price increase was relatively rapid and had limited correlation with changes in stainless steel fundamentals, and end-user acceptance remained limited...