[April 2025 Steel PMI Indicates Improvement in Steel Market Performance, with Rises in Both Supply and Demand] According to the Steel PMI surveyed and released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP), the index stood at 50.6% in April 2025, up 4.6 percentage points MoM. It has risen MoM for three consecutive months and returned to expansion territory for the first time in five months, indicating an improvement in the performance of the steel industry. Changes in sub-indices show that both supply and demand for steel have risen, with in-plant inventory at steel mills being consumed at a faster pace. However, steel prices have fluctuated downward, and raw material prices have continued to decline. It is expected that in May, demand in the steel market will continue to warm up, production at steel mills will keep rising, and prices of raw materials and steel will rebound from low levels.

【SMM HRC Daily Review】Ferrous Metals Series Fluctuate Downward, Spot Market for HRC Remains Sluggish Throughout the Day HRC futures fluctuated downward today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,342 yuan/mt, down 0.86% for the day. Spot market transactions were moderate. On the news front, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the manufacturing PMI for March stood at 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating a continued rebound in manufacturing activity. According to the steel industry PMI surveyed and released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the steel PMI for March was 46%, up 0.9 percentage points MoM, marking the second consecutive month of MoM growth. During the day, the most-traded coking coal contract fell below the 1,000.0 yuan/mt mark, hitting its lowest level since October 2016. From a fundamental perspective, as we enter April, the impact of previous maintenance is expected to gradually weaken, leaving room for a rebound in HRC production. Demand side, the peak season demand from March to April has limited further upside potential, and the market may experience high volatility before mid-month. With a relatively small short-term imbalance, attention should be paid to the pace of production recovery and inventory levels. Before the HRC imbalance becomes apparent, HRC prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound in a weak trend.

In July, the national manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from June, mainly due to high temperatures and some natural disasters affecting business activities.

In June, the national manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, flat MoM, showing overall stability but still below the 50 mark.

The national manufacturing PMI for May was 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points MoM, indicating a decline in overall manufacturing prosperity.

In April, the national manufacturing PMI increased to 50.4%, and the SMM PMI for the stainless steel sector was 50.1%, returning to expansion territory.