[Copper] On Tuesday, SHFE copper fluctuated above the MA250 daily moving average. Today, spot copper returned to 78,035 yuan, with Shanghai copper premiums expanding to 205 yuan and Guangdong premiums at 210 yuan. Pre-holiday stockpiling was relatively active. An overnight widespread power outage in the Iberian Peninsula heightened market concerns about European power grid security, with no confirmed cause yet identified. Some speculate it may be related to the large-scale integration of renewable energy into the grid. Additionally, the ICSG adjusted the 2025 refined copper balance sheet, reducing the expected increase in copper concentrate production from October last year, maintaining the view of a supply surplus for the year. The market is mainly concerned about consumption performance after mid-May, and with a 90-day exemption from reciprocal tariffs for ASEAN, there are significant concerns about demand in H2. Hold short positions above 78,000 for the 2507 contract. [Aluminum and Alumina] Today, SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound. Spot aluminum in east China was on par with futures, while discounts in south China widened by 15 yuan to 75 yuan. Over the past week, social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum billets continued to decline rapidly, dropping by 30,000 mt and 34,000 mt respectively, with total inventories at their lowest level for the same period in recent years. Short-term macroeconomic pessimism has eased, and strong fundamentals have supported aluminum prices returning to around 20,000 yuan. However, further expansion of industry profits exceeding 3,000 yuan requires stronger expectations of a supply deficit. Amid the shadow of a trade war, demand prospects during the off-season are difficult to be optimistic about. It is expected that SHFE aluminum will face strong resistance in the previous deficit range of 20,000-20,300 yuan. Recently, alumina maintenance has increased, leading to a temporary reduction in production and a decline in industry inventories. However, once ore prices continue to fall or alumina prices rebound continuously, capacity will still resume on a large scale. The long-term surplus outlook and high warrant inventory limit the height of price rebounds. Today, the futures market fell significantly, trading at a discount to spot prices. There may still be support near the previous lows, and it is not advisable to chase short positions. Overall, under a fluctuating trend, the strategy is to sell on rallies. [Zinc] As the May Day holiday approaches, macroeconomic uncertainties are high, and funds are relatively cautious, with SHFE zinc fluctuating rangebound. Downstream stockpiling at lower levels was relatively sufficient, with low acceptance of high zinc prices. On Monday, SMM zinc social inventories halted their decline, recording 85,900 mt. SMM May domestic and imported TC for ZN50 increased by 50 yuan and $5 MoM to 3,500 yuan/mt (metal content) and $45/dmt respectively. With zinc prices running low, mines continue to make minor concessions, indirectly confirming weak end-use consumption. The "Golden March, Silver April" period is coming to an end, with high-frequency data showing weakening demand. Affected by cumulative tariffs, downstream orders to the US face the risk of being returned or canceled. May consumption expectations are under pressure, and SHFE zinc continues the strategy of selling on rallies. [Lead] Secondary lead smelters have reduced production beyond expectations, with a price difference of 25 yuan/mt between primary lead and scrap. In some regions, the price of primary lead is lower than that of scrap, leading downstream buyers to prefer primary lead. SMM lead social inventories decreased by 10,100 mt MoM to 44,500 mt. Due to expanding losses, secondary lead smelters intend to drive down raw material purchasing prices. At the end of last week, scrap battery suppliers, fearing price declines, sold off their holdings, improving raw material arrivals at some smelters. Battery end-use demand remains weak, with battery companies generally taking 2-3 days more off during the May Day holiday compared to the same period last year. With both supply and demand weak, SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate rangebound between 16,300-17,000 yuan/mt. Continuously monitor smelter dynamics and the SHFE/LME price ratio. [Nickel and Stainless Steel] SHFE nickel corrected, with market trading activity remaining mediocre. The anticipated pre-holiday stockpiling demand did not materialize as expected, with downstream buyers adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude, resulting in an overall sluggish trading atmosphere. Jinchuan premiums fell to 2,250 yuan, imported nickel premiums were at 150 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel premiums were at 100 yuan. High-grade nickel pig iron was quoted at 971 yuan per mtu, having fallen nearly 5% over the past month. In terms of inventories, nickel pig iron inventories increased by 3,700 mt to 24,000 mt, refined nickel inventories rose by 700 mt to 44,700 mt, and stainless steel inventories decreased by 14,000 mt to 986,000 mt. SHFE nickel is at the tail end of another rebound, with bears observing new opportunities to build positions. [Tin] SHFE tin fluctuated with a positive daily candlestick, with the trading center remaining above 260,000 yuan. Today, spot tin was at 262,200 yuan, with a real-time premium of 370 yuan against the delivery month futures price. SHFE tin saw a reduction in open interest and low participation. In the next two months, Wa State will advance production resumptions, and Alphamin in the Congo will resume production. Despite tight domestic tin ore resources, market attention is increasingly focused on demand. SHFE tin is expected to sell on rallies, with short positions held against the 265,000-270,000 yuan range. (Source: SDIC Futures)

The total stainless steel inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased from 999,400 mt to 985,800 mt this week (April 18-24, 2025), down 1.36% WoW.

【SMM Analysis: Increased Warrant Pickup Volume Drives Weekly Stainless Steel Destocking by 1.4%, Future Market Remains Uncertain】SSMM reported on April 24 that the total stainless steel inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased from 999,400 mt to 985,800 mt this week (April 18-24, 2025), down 1.36% WoW. Demand remained stable, while steel mills urged for cargo pick-up, but agents and traders were cautious due to high inventory levels. Wuxi saw destocking across all categories, with a significant drop in the 300-series. Foshan experienced inventory buildup in the 200-series and 400-series, while the 300-series saw destocking. The accelerated destocking has improved cash flow, but traders are struggling to make profits. With the May Day holiday approaching, downstream sectors may moderately restock, but poor export and domestic demand conditions, coupled with the upcoming off-season in May, may impact destocking speed. Inventory is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations next week.

【Copper】 On Friday, SHFE copper fluctuated and closed higher above 75,000 yuan, as the market assessed the positive inclination of China's tariff game with the US, and gold hit a new high. Recently, US copper inventories rose again, indicating that logistics are concentrated in the US. Short-term overseas market risk pricing has eased, but the actual systemic impact has not ended. Currently, copper prices are characterized by a rebound, and overseas investment banks have shifted the annual copper supply-demand balance to a surplus expectation. In the short term, there is support from US copper flows externally and tight domestic primary and secondary materials internally, but medium and long-term demand pricing and systemic impact account for a high proportion. LME copper tends to face strong resistance at $9,300, while SHFE copper is above 75,500-77,000 yuan. Rebound and short positions are recommended. 【Aluminum & Alumina】 Today, SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound. Yesterday, aluminum ingot and billet social inventories decreased by 30,000 mt and 13,000 mt respectively compared to Monday, with total aluminum market inventories at a low level for the same period in recent years, indicating good apparent consumption and relatively strong fundamentals among non-ferrous metals. In the short term, macro factors dominate commodity trends, and the repeated US tariff policy has increased market volatility. SHFE aluminum is expected to mainly fluctuate above 19,000 yuan, testing the 20,000 yuan integer mark and annual line resistance. Spot alumina indices in various regions have successively fallen below 2,900 yuan, and increasing maintenance has improved the April balance, but it is difficult to change the surplus outlook. As companies gradually face cash losses, larger-scale production cuts are awaited. This week's low point in the futures market corresponds to cost expectations equivalent to ore falling to around $70, with alumina fluctuating weakly but limited downside potential. 【Zinc】 US tariff-related statements remain uncertain, and as the weekend approaches, funds are cautious, with SHFE zinc fluctuating rangebound. SMM zinc social inventories fell to 102,100 mt, with the 0-2 month price spread widening to 580 yuan/mt. Downstream rigid demand still supports the spot market, and pessimistic sentiment in the consumption side has somewhat recovered. In the short term, SHFE zinc may fluctuate in the 22,000-23,000 yuan/mt range, but the CZSPT group expects domestic ore TC to rebound to 4,500 yuan/mt in June, and imported ore TC to rebound to 60-70 $/dmt. After smelters turn profitable, expectations for production increases remain strong. The pressure for the zinc market's center to shift downward persists, and the strategy of rebounding and short positions continues. 【Lead】 US tariff policy remains uncertain, and pessimistic expectations in the consumption side have slightly recovered. Shorts reducing positions drove SHFE lead to rebound, with SMM 1# lead quotations against the near-month futures turning to a discount of 10 yuan/mt, and the price difference between primary metal and scrap maintained at 25 yuan/mt. SMM lead social inventories stood at 69,500 mt, with little overall change. With lead prices at low levels, primary and secondary lead smelters' reluctance to sell has increased, and some downstream buyers are cautious about price increases. However, overall consumption is in the off-season, providing limited support for high lead prices. After the inversion between primary and scrap lead was resolved, downstream buyers tend to purchase low-priced secondary lead, and lead ingot supply is not tight. SHFE lead is temporarily expected to fluctuate in the 16,300-17,000 yuan/mt range, with limited operability, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. 【Nickel & Stainless Steel】 SHFE nickel's rebound was hindered and consolidated, with market trading being mediocre. Jinchuan premiums rebounded to 3,200 yuan, Russian nickel premiums were at 200 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel premiums were at 150 yuan. High-grade NPI prices retreated, and Indonesian ore still affects raw material pricing, with the latest quotation at 1,024 yuan per mtu, down 10 yuan for the week. In terms of inventories, NPI inventories fell by 2,500 mt to 20,000 mt, refined nickel inventories fell by 1,400 mt to 46,000 mt, and stainless steel inventories fell by 1,000 mt to 980,000 mt. Technically, SHFE nickel's rebound faces resistance in the 12.3-12.5 range, waiting for a better short position. 【Tin】 SHFE tin closed higher above 255,000 yuan, with domestic spot tin remaining relatively firm. Substantial tightness in tin resource supply is difficult to alleviate in April. Social inventories are expected to destock this week, and after large fluctuations, tin is attempting to fluctuate within a certain range, with a wait-and-see approach recommended. (Source: SDIC Futures)

【Copper】 On Friday, SHFE copper fell to 80,500 yuan/mt as positions were reduced, with spot copper prices adjusted to 80,605 yuan/mt. The spot discount in Shanghai narrowed to 5 yuan/mt, while the premium in Guangdong continued to shrink to 60 yuan/mt. The price difference between primary metal and scrap tightened further. The pullback is likely to be limited below the MA20 daily average line, around 80,000 yuan/mt. The market awaits the March PCE data in the evening. Midstream and downstream players priced on demand. 【Aluminum】 SHFE aluminum pulled back today, with spot discounts narrowing slightly. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and billets fell by 25,000 mt and 13,000 mt respectively compared to Monday, with destocking speed slightly faster than in previous years. The market expects consumption during the peak season, focusing on whether spot feedback can improve as inventories decline. Higher profits after a significant cost reduction require a larger deficit expectation. In the short term, SHFE aluminum continues to fluctuate, with support at the low point of the past month’s trading range of 20,500 yuan/mt. Alumina operating capacity fluctuates at historically high levels, and while the scale of production cuts and maintenance has expanded, it is difficult to reverse the long-term loose trend. Domestic and overseas spot prices remain under pressure, with the latest Australian transaction falling to around $370/dmt. As some northern alumina producers face cash cost losses, the decline in alumina may slow before ore prices loosen further, with limited rebound potential. Resistance is seen at the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. 【Alumina】 Alumina operating capacity fluctuates at historically high levels, and while the scale of production cuts and maintenance has expanded, it is difficult to reverse the long-term loose trend. Domestic and overseas spot prices remain under pressure, with the latest Australian transaction falling to around $370/dmt. As some northern alumina producers face cash cost losses, the decline in alumina may slow before ore prices loosen further, with limited rebound potential. Resistance is seen at the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. 【Zinc】 On April 2, the new round of US tariff policy weighed on consumption prospects, leading to weaker zinc prices. Mine profits remain as high as 6,000 yuan/mt, and the pace of resumption is progressing as scheduled. SMM reported that the average TC for domestic and imported ore in April rose by 350 yuan/mt and $5/dmt to 3,450 yuan/mt (metal content) and $40/dmt, respectively. Smelter profits improved further, and with no shortage of ore, zinc ingot supply is unlikely to be tight. The renovation of old and dangerous houses and urban villages in April partially offset the drag on consumption from the property sector. Home appliance production schedules are moderate, and producers are actively stockpiling for the peak season but expressed concerns about order declines after the rush to export ends. Consumption remains resilient but lacks incremental growth. SHFE zinc is still expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 24,250 yuan/mt. Trading strategies still favor shorting in line with the loosening logic of the ore side. 【Lead】 The market focused on the US tariff developments on April 2, with the possibility of additional tariffs on automobiles potentially negatively impacting lead prices. The spot import window remains closed, and domestic raw material supply remains tight. Scrap battery prices are relatively resilient, providing support on the cost side. As delivery supplies gradually enter the market, downstream purchase willingness is low at month-end, with weak demand in the off-season and high raw material costs. Small and medium-sized battery producers intend to cut production to control finished product inventories. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate between 17,200-17,800 yuan/mt. 【Nickel and Stainless Steel】 SHFE nickel rebounded slightly, with active market trading. Jinchuan’s premium rebounded to 2,000 yuan/mt, while Russian nickel was at a discount of 25 yuan/mt, and electrodeposited nickel at a discount of 100 yuan/mt. High-grade NPI prices remain strong, with Indonesian ore still influencing raw material pricing, quoted at 1,027 yuan/mtu. NPI inventories stand at 23,000 mt, while refined nickel inventories fell by 1,900 mt to 47,000 mt, and stainless steel inventories declined slightly to 990,000 mt. After the price pullback, NPI remains the main support on the cost side, with strong short-term support estimated around 130,000 yuan/mt. Technically, SHFE nickel has not weakened yet, and the market awaits the maturity of shorting opportunities. 【Tin】 A 7.9-magnitude earthquake in Mandalay, Myanmar, briefly boosted tin prices and tin-related stocks, but the tin market gave back most of its gains in the afternoon. The epicenter was about 400-450 km from Wa State, with a deep focus, and the situation remains under observation. The ITA Tin Association emphasized supply losses, with current tightness in concentrate supply, and production schedules are being monitored. SHFE tin ingot inventories rose during the week. SHFE tin faces technical resistance at 285,000-287,000 yuan/mt, with the market sensitive to supply and also tracking demand. (Source: SDIC Futures)

【Copper】 SHFE copper experienced a reduction in positions and fluctuated on Thursday, with the decline temporarily limited by the 10-day moving average. Spot copper prices stood at 81,585 yuan/mt today, with Shanghai at a discount of 30 yuan and Guangdong's premium narrowing to 90 yuan. High copper prices have affected the destocking speed, with SMM's social inventory increasing by 900 mt to 334,500 mt within the week. The overnight LME spread has approached Goldman Sachs' estimate of $1,700, drawing attention to speculative and arbitrage activities, with a tendency for this driver to shift marginally. SHFE copper shows signs of short-term adjustment, but the pullback is expected to be limited during the peak season, likely within the range of 80,500-81,500 yuan. Midstream and downstream players are pricing on demand. 【Aluminum & Alumina】 SHFE aluminum rose today, with spot prices maintaining a slight discount. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and billets decreased by 25,000 mt and 13,000 mt respectively compared to Monday, with destocking speed slightly faster than in previous years. The market anticipates peak season consumption, focusing on whether spot feedback will improve as inventories decline. Higher profits after significant cost reductions require larger deficit expectations. In the short term, SHFE aluminum is expected to fluctuate near the low point of its one-month range at 20,500 yuan, continuing to test resistance at 21,000 yuan. Alumina operating capacity fluctuates at historically high levels, with expanded production cuts and maintenance failing to alter the long-term loose trend. Domestic and overseas spot prices remain under pressure, with the latest Australian transaction falling to $368. As some northern alumina producers face cash cost losses, the decline in alumina may slow before ore prices loosen further, but the rebound space is relatively limited, with resistance at the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. 【Zinc】 Zinc prices fluctuated at high levels, with downstream buyers hesitant to purchase at elevated prices. SMM's zinc social inventory increased slightly by 1,100 mt to 130,000 mt compared to Monday. Mine profits remain as high as 6,000 yuan/mt, with the resumption pace progressing as expected. SMM reported that the average TC for domestic and imported ores in April rose by 350 yuan and $5 to 3,450 yuan/mt (metal content) and $40/dmt respectively, further improving smelter profits. With no shortage of ore, zinc ingot supply is unlikely to be tight. The specifics of the US tariff policy on April 2 remain unclear, with funds inclined to take profits, and longs reducing positions at high levels. SHFE zinc retraced to the 60-day moving average. The renovation of old and dangerous houses and urban villages in April partially offset the drag on consumption from the real estate sector. Home appliance production schedules are moderate, with producers actively stockpiling for the peak season but expressing concerns about order declines after the export rush. Consumption remains resilient but lacks incremental growth. SHFE zinc is expected to remain volatile, with resistance at 24,250 yuan/mt. 【Lead】 LME lead inventories fluctuated around the high level of 230,000 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants surging to 31.2%. Investment funds reduced short positions, and the overseas market consolidated near the previous high resistance level, with the spot import window remaining closed. Domestic raw material supply remains tight, with scrap battery prices continuing to rise, maintaining strong cost-side support. As delivery supplies gradually enter the market, SMM's lead social inventory decreased by 4,800 mt to 69,200 mt WoW. The futures market fluctuated at high levels, with the price spread between primary metal and scrap widening to 100 yuan/mt, and the spread between futures and spot prices remaining as high as 230 yuan/mt. With profitable delivery opportunities, the tight supply of lead ingots is difficult to resolve. Downstream purchase willingness is low at month-end, with weak off-season demand and high raw material costs, prompting small and medium-sized battery producers to consider production cuts to control finished product inventories. The fundamentals are mixed, with volatility expected in the near term, and resistance at 17,880 yuan/mt. 【Nickel & Stainless Steel】 SHFE nickel rebounded slightly, with active market trading. Jinchuan's premium rebounded to 2,000 yuan, while Russian nickel was at a discount of 25 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel at a discount of 100 yuan. High-grade NPI prices remain strong, with Indonesian ore still influencing raw material pricing, quoted at 1,027 yuan per mtu. In terms of inventories, NPI inventories dropped sharply by 6,000 mt to 23,000 mt, refined nickel inventories decreased by 1,900 mt to 47,000 mt, and stainless steel inventories slightly declined to 990,000 mt. After the price drop, NPI remains the main cost-side support, with strong short-term support estimated around 130,000 yuan. Technically, SHFE nickel has not weakened yet, waiting for short opportunities to mature. 【Tin】 SHFE tin closed higher, with the Tin Association meeting focusing on supply reduction. Spot tin prices stood at 278,900 yuan/mt today, with a real-time discount of 200 yuan/mt against the delivery month. LME tin inventories dropped to a recent low of 3,080 mt, with the LME 0-3 month spot premium expanding to $163, boosting short-term tin prices. Wa State continues to arrange resumption work. Against the backdrop of supply being more easily priced quickly, it is recommended to pay more attention to the demand side, with a tendency to view 280,000-285,000 yuan as the high-price zone. (Source: SDIC Futures)